Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210620 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 220 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ABUNDANT HUMIDITY REMAINS IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSES THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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200 AM UPDATE... LOOKS LIKE A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NT...WITH NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RIDING ALONG WARM FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL NEAR DAWN. PREV DISCN... UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS HARRISON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER. DECREASED POPS OVER REST OF CWA AS SHOWERS ARE EXITING. ALSO INCREASED COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEARING...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY MORNING. SLOWED THE TIMING OF POPS FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS OK. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STARTING LITTLE OR NO PCPN THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z. AN MCS CROSSING SOUTHERN IN AT 18Z...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...THIS SYSTEM DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND DIE BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND PORTIONS OF WV OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...INTRODUCE SMALL POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 06Z...SPREADING EAST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE COMMON OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN...AND ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WHICH SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPCOMING DYING MCS. A WARM FRONT DISSECTS OUR CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT THIS TIME AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE UNDER PLAYED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DYING MCS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS THE NAM AND CMC MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER H5 VORTMAX BUT STRONGER WAVE ON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WILL BE TRACKING SEVERAL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WX. THERE WILL BE A DECENT LLJ FEEDING INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 35 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING PWATS TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY THERE WITH SOME TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS SETS UP IS IN QUESTION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS AXIS INTO NORTHERN ZONES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS LOCATION ACROSS E KY/S WV 24 HRS AGO. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SOME OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HOPE THAT THE 00Z RUNS CAN OFFER SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE 12Z RUNS TODAY REGARDING WHERE THE AREA OF CONCERN SETS UP. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NAM APPEARS TO DEVELOP POTENTIAL A MCV ON FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE HVY RAIN THREAT. THIS WOULD DRIVE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO A MCV ATTM. WILL TRY TO SHOW A DRYING TREND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING TO SW BRIEFLY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER REGIME AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE STOUT RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER MS VALLEY. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA BUT WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT PATCHY IFR AND MVFR CLOUD WILL RAISE/KEEP VSBY MVFR OR BETTER AT TIMES. ALTOCU WILL ALSO HAVE MITIGATING AFFECT ON FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...HAVE HIT THE DENSE FOG HARDEST IN THE CODE FOR THE NRN SITES. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RIDE E TO SEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS TAF PERIOD. ONE CLUSTER WILL CROSS DURING THE DAY THU. SINCE THE DAYTIME HOURS ARE NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH AREA COVERAGE THERE WILL BE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE THU NT. THE NEXT COMPLEX SHOULD ARRIVE FRI MORNING...BEYOND THE CURRENT 24 HR TAF PERIOD. POST RAIN LOW CLOUD AND FOG MAY FORM IN THE INTERIM. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY W...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NW THU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG WILL VARY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGING CIGS INCLUDING MVFR TO IFR CIGS. IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU. AREAS OF POST RAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUD MAY FORM THU NT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H L L L L M H L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION FRI THROUGH FRI NT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING AND SAT MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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