Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010827 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 425 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. MUCH COOLER NORTH OF FRONT TODAY. DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS. WEAK/SLUGGISH FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MID/UPPER LOW IN TENNESSEE VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AFTER OUR WARM MAY...UNCHARACTERISTIC FORECASTING ON THIS FIRST GRAVEYARD SHIFT IN JUNE. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT A STRONG THERMAL AND DEW POINT PACKING IN OUR CWA. AT 08Z THIS MORNING...COLD FRONT WAS NEAR ELKINS ON SW...TO NEAR LOGAN AND WILLIAMSON. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DROPPED FASTER THAN FIGURED IN SE OHIO. EVEN SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NEAR DAWN IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES. FURTHER SE...THE WIND SEEMS TO BE SUBSIDING HERE AT CRW...AFTER THE INITIAL FROPA AROUND 06Z. THINK THIS IS TELLING US...THE PUSH OF THE FRONT SE TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IS SLOWING DOWN. OUR VAD WIND MANAGED TO HAVE A 5 KNOT 925 MB WIND FOR A FEW HOURS. OF COURSE...ABOVE THE FRONT...850 MB WINDS STILL FROM THE SW. WITH THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN...THIS GIVES US ALL SORTS OF HEADACHES TRYING TO FIGURE OUT TEMPERATURES...NOT TO SPEAK OF AVIATION CONCERNS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY. WILL TRY TO KEEP THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS THE COOLEST TODAY. FIGURING THE BEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS ARRIVES THERE FIRST...FROM WITH THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH SHOULD BE DRIER...SO TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER A BIT MORE. WILL ALSO TRY TO KEEP ELKINS AND BKW MILDER THAN FURTHER WEST...BUT IF FRONT IS JUST A BIT STRONGER AND MOVES FURTHER SE...THAT COULD BUST. DID DOWNPLAY THE CHANCES OF THUNDER N AND W OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF THE FRONT TO HTS-CRW VCNTY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM POCAHONTAS CO ON SW THRU RALEIGH TO SW VIRGINIA. HAVE THE ENHANCED AREAS OF SHOWERS LIFTING FURTHER NE THIS EVENING...SO BROUGHT LIKELY POPS BACK AS CKB...BUT STILL HELD ONTO ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND MARIETTA AND PARKERSBURG. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS...RAIN INDUCED FOG LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGH GROUND. COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINS ALONG OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH PWS AROUND 1.6 INCHES. BUT WITH THE INITIAL DRY GROUND AND LOW STREAM FLOWS...TOO PREMATURE FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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BRIEF DOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE REMAINS STUCK IN THE MOUNTAINS SO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY KEEPS US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PROGRESSION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW...INITIALLY OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AT 06Z...COLD FRONT NEAR W22 OR JUST WEST OF EKN...AND JUST EAST OF CRW. HAVE FRONT SLOWLY DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS...SO HARD TO DETERMINE TIMING FOR BKW. TRIED TO DELAY THE LOWER CEILINGS THERE. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CEILINGS...BUT ONLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN HTS TRI STATE AFTER 15Z AND MOVING NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN UNI-PKB TO CKB AREA CEILINGS MAY LIFT TOWARD 2 THSD FT... FOR A TIME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INCLUDING BKW THIS AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM...NORTH OF THE FRONT...IN THE HTS-CRW AREA...BUT TRIED TO DOWNPLAY THAT SCENARIO IN THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS...RAIN INDUCED FOG...AND LOW CEILINGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF PUSH OF FRONT IS A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST... CEILINGS AND VSBY COULD LOWER FASTER THAN FORECAST AT BKW AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU OF WV. .AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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