Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311003 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FAIRLY HUMID WEAK AHEAD...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURES ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL TREND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MODELS SHOW AN H5 SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN VORTICITY CHARTS OVER WESTERN NC...EASTERN KY AND SOUTHWEST VA MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE UPPER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EAST TO WEST. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OVER THE OH VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THERE. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL ACTIVITY DECREASING AND EXITING THE EASTER MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE SUPER BLEND...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE MID 70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO IN THE MID 60S DUE TO MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND CLEARING SKIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. EVEN WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH 20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH FROM NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHWEST VA INTO WV TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOW BKN TO OVC 12KFT CEILINGS ACROSS MOST SITES. AREAS OF CLEARING COULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WV...RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AT MOST SITES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/31/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ

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