Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210534 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak disturbance today with a shower possible north. Tropical moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms to end the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 125 AM Wednesday... Weak disturbance aloft with will work thru today with a weak frontal zone setting up across the mid/upper OH Valley. This will provide the forcing for isolated showers/storms this afternoon across portions of southeast OH and northern WV. Elsewhere intervals of cirrus will be noted. Temps will rebound back above normal, with Lowland readings topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight...the aforementioned frontal boundary will become more of a warm front as it lifts northeast. Northern WV be located in the vicinity of this boundary for an isolated shower mention. Otherwise, a warmer night amid the increase in cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... A relatively weak upper level ripple may lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but moisture will be pretty limited. Moisture quickly increases Friday as a leading slug of tropical moisture and some upper level energy sheds off Cindy and gets caught up in the overall synoptic flow, lifting NE out of the Gulf ahead of the upper trough. This looks to move through the southern and central Appalachians Thursday night and Friday. The surface circulation of Cindy will still be in eastern TX at this point. This initial slug could definitely contain some heavy rainfall, but after several dry days we should be able to handle a decent amount of water. Still...cannot rule out isolated issues starting to crop up. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Quite a bit of uncertainty remains for the weekend. Models continue to show a strong cold front pushing our way from the NW Friday night into Saturday, with the remnants of Cindy approaching from the SW. The timing on how all of this comes together will have a very large impact in the weather we get out of it. Models continue to show the potential for heavy rainfall, but differ some on the location. While confidence is low, any additional heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns. Will continue mention in HWO for now. The ECMWF shows a secondary cold front Sunday, the GFS is not quite as robust with it, but opted to include some slight chance to chance POPs with this as well. Cooler air settles in late Sunday into Monday with below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions thru dawn with just some MVFR fog expected at KEKN as cirrus should keep dense fog at bay. A weak upper air disturbance and associated front will provide enough lift for isolated showers and storms Wednesday across southeast OH and northern WV. Chances are too low for any mention in the northern TAF sites at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions amid intervals of cirrus south and sct cu north. A warm front will try to set up across northern WV tonight with isolated showers forecast. Increase in cloud cover will keep terminals VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium with fog through dawn at EKN. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if winds decouple more and cirrus exits. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 06/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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