Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211730 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 111 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. DID TWEAK AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN MORNING RAOBS SHOWING H850 TEMPS OF AROUND 11C...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. STILL EXPECTING SUNSHINE TO DIM WITH TIME AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS GATHER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT...AS CLOUDS SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. W/SW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. LEADING SHORTWAVE COULD POSSIBLY FIRE OFF A FEW SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD...BUT DRY COLUMN COULD EASILY GOBBLE THEM UP TOO. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS. HAVE MVFR VISIBILITY MENTIONED...WITH CIGS PROBABLY BOTTOMING OUT AT LOW-END VFR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT NOT INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO BREAK WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER CONSULTATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WHILE FUELS ARE CERTAINLY STILL DRY...RH VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. DID HIGHLIGHT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FWF HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...CL FIRE WEATHER...CL

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