Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271954 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 354 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of convection are expected this holiday weekend, until a cold front crosses Sunday, followed by another Monday morning. Additional cold fronts and showers cross through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday... Cap is finally breaking over the northern tier of counties where the better clearing has taken place over the last couple of hours. Still looking at a high CAPE and moderate bulk shear environment, so expect the activity to continue on the upswing heading into the late afternoon and evening. So far, the pace has been more than manageable, but still have a few hours of heating left and we have already hit the convective temperature. Have both the hail and wind threat going forward. No changes to the SPC slight risk for us in terms of severe. Meanwhile, precipitable water values pushing 1.50in have warranted the flash flood watch in place over much of the southern portion of the CWA. Flash flood guidance values still high, so thresholds for additional rain down in these areas is low. Repetitive rounds of storms could easily become troublesome. Have tailored the POPs for a lull in the activity late this evening and early tonight, before the front swings back northward again as a warm front. Pre dawn convection expected to move north through the area, and back into the slight risk area for Sunday as the cold front passes again. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM Saturday... During this period, models have the upper trough lifting out of the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and becoming a closed upper low over eastern Canada. This will finally push the frontal system out of our area during Monday and allow high pressure with drier air to move in later Monday and Monday night. Thus, look for decreasing rain chances from west to east on Monday, with temperatures returning to near normal with much lower humidities. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM Saturday... This period features a large upper level low over eastern Canada with a long wave trough over the eastern United States. This spells a cooler trend for the Ohio Valley, with reinforcing cold front dropping across the area through mid week. Some showers will accompany these fronts, but no heavy rains are expected. Upper ridging and high pressure will return for the later part of the work week with dry weather and near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... Convection/storms will be around through the evening. The challenge, of course, is determining effects on individual terminals. With that said, attempted as best as possible with rapid update high res models to time POPs on terminals and reflect that in the TAFs, while trying to not overpopulate with VCTS/CB. Some TEMPOs used in this case to cover, but can see AMDs being needed as the storms evolve and move over the next several hours. Gusty winds and hail are possible. Expecting a lull during a portion of the overnight, with a warm front returning and bringing morning convection back into the fold. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection timing likely to vary as storms evolve. May need fog tonight in brief clearing. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M M M L M L EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>008- 013>016-024>027-033-034-515>520. OH...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ102-103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.