Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222023 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP SATURDAY EVENING. FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND SHOULD STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...5TH NIGHT. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES. ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS 12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS OR NORTHEASTERN WV. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST. THE DECK WILL RAISE AND BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THINNING CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...RPY

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