Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220825 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 425 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low level moisture on the increase today. Weak disturbances drop southeast today and Saturday. Front stalls in Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Upper clouds incoming from the NW early this morning...but it continues to look like any precip associated with the MCS in northern IL and IN should remain to our west. Dirty ridge just to our west through the period, and will have some week upper disturbances drop down the eastern side of the ridge today into tonight. With these, have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...with the highest POPs across the Mid Ohio River Valley. The amount of instability today will depend on how thick the high clouds remain this morning. There is definitely a good deck of cirrus to our northwest associated with the MCS. NAM does show recovery to 1000-2000 j/kg CAPE this afternoon across western half of CWA, which would be enough for some taller storms capable of gusty winds. The atmosphere should be warm enough to limit hail production. Shear is very weak so storms should be rather pulsey and not become well organized. Precipitable water values top 2 inches along and west of the Ohio River, indicating downpours are also possible in any thunderstorms. Blended ECMWF mos into previous forecast, with only minimal changes. Mainly a bit warmer overnight. Today will be a warm day, with increasing dewpoints. Heat indices top out just below advisory criteria this afternoon -- in the mid and upper 90s across the lowlands.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The heat wave will continue this weekend with temperatures reaching the lower 90s. Models show a dry column through the period with some moisture at the mid levels and high sfc CAPE values. Can no ruled out low chance for showers and storms by Sunday afternoon. A weak cold front becomes stationary in the vicinity to our north. Convective complexes can develop under northwest flow. Remnants of these complexes can dig southeast while diminishing in intensity. This will bring debris clouds to the area. Despite the clouds, temperatures will climb again Sunday mainly lowlands. Moisture and hot temperatures can make heat index to climb into the 100s this weekend. Went with the superblend guidance for temperatures through the period. Continued advertising possible heat advisories for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... It will turn more unsettled early next week with the arrival of a frontal boundary coupled with a s/w trof passage. These features will make a run toward the area later on Monday with convection chances increasing thru the afternoon and especially into the evening hours. The upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere. This will keep the unsettled pattern going thru Tuesday as the the front will be in no hurry to push through. With the light flow and high pwats...some slow moving downpours are in the cards. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Monday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Cirrus clouds arriving from the NW early this morning...which should keep most dense fog at bay. Once exception in EKN, where clouds will arrive latest, so went with some IFR there. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon, but right now thinking coverage to low to include in TAFs. However, will need to keep watch on this and may need to add in at least VCTS mention in the Ohio River Valley. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing at EKN may vary. May need to add VCTS or thunder for this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/22/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Depending on remnant clouds, IFR fog may be possible Saturday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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