Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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510 FXUS61 KRLX 160738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 238 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upslope overnight. High pressure Saturday. A weak system brings some light rain Sunday afternoon and night. Another clipper crosses Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 100 AM Saturday... Forecast on track, with breaks in the cloud slowly encroaching upon the middle Ohio Valley. As of 1005 PM Friday... Adjusted the temperatures during the overnight to keep them largely steady, less a degree or two of variation. This ended up with a slight upward adjustment to the Min T values tonight. As of 110 PM Friday... Some cold air advection behind an upper level wave will allow for some weak upslope this evening in the northern WV mountains. Moisture may become deep enough for some light snow showers. Due to the limited moisture and weak nature of the upslope, think any accumulations would remain less than in inch. Temperatures tonight are once again rather tricky due to the combination of some wind, a stratus deck that will be dissipating, and some warm advection clouds. Warm air advection sets in later tonight with high pressure building over the area on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Saturday... Warmer, and overall drier weather this weekend. A shortwave will move through the region on Sunday, creating a chance for showers. As of now, based on timing of precipitation, have only rain coded in the forecast, but any change in the timing, could result in a brief wintry mix across the north on Sunday. Otherwise, Monday is looking much drier, with another cold front progged for Tuesday/Tuesday night as low pressure moves east across Canada. This period is also looking to be drier, with moisture from southern stream system remaining to our south, and an overall lack of significant moisture from northern system. Expecting just a chance of precipitation, mainly across the higher terrain, with rain and snow showers Tuesday night behind the front.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 240 AM Saturday... Unsettled weather for the long term period, with another cold front slated for late in the period. Bulk of precipitation during this period will fall as rain, although a transition to light snow is possible for Friday night behind the front, but, as often is the case, by the time enough cold air is in place, moisture will be lacking. Lots of uncertainty exists for the upcoming weekend and beyond but overall pattern looking quite active.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 AM Saturday... Warm advection will gradually eradicate any snow showers along higher ridges overnight, and the MVFR stratocu, from south to north, overnight into early Saturday morning. The stratocu, up around 4 kft otherwise, will gradually break up across the lowlands overnight, and across the mountains early Saturday morning. High pressure will then bring VFR conditions for the balance of the day Saturday, and Saturday night. Westerly surface flow, gusty in the mountains, will gradually diminish overnight, becoming light southwest for Saturday. Flow aloft will be moderate west to northwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow showers could cause brief MVFR visibility restrictions in the northern WV mountains overnight. Timing of MVFR ceilings may vary into Saturday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 12/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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