Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 122345 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 740 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MORE HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND LINGERS ON MONDAY.. STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE GAMBLED ON REMOVING THE POPS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME ROBUST CUMULUS FORMING AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WILL SEE CUMULUS LOSS AS HEATING DISSIPATES. ALSO DEALING WITH INFILTRATION OF HIGH CLOUDS OF A DECAYING MCS OVER INDIANA RIGHT NOW. NOT GOING TO HAVE ANY IMMEDIATE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LEADING EDGE OF A THETA E RIDGE AT 850MB WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. VORT MAXES ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST PROVIDING THE LIFTING MECHANISM. THE BETTER FLOW IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THIS AREA. SPC CONTINUING WITH ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA FOR THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO A TIER OF COUNTIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL SEE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOWS. COUPLED WITH THE RISING DEWPOINTS...GOOD AVAILABLE CAPE AND BULK SHEAR 0-6KM INCREASES TO 30-40KTS WILL PROMOTE LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ALSO...PWAT VALUES WILL JUMP ABOVE THE 1.75INCH MARK. CANNOT ELIMINATE A HAIL THREAT EITHER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED HPC THINKING...WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT ON TWO ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DROP EAST SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE...WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TIMING...WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE...WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SECOND BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF MONDAY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STORMS SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR. WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND THE FRONT...SOME OF THESE STORMS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE SEVERE. CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH LOTS OF HUMIDITY MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 70S TUESDAY IN THE DRIER CANADIAN AIR. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE OVER MOST OF OUR AREA FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK. THUS...THERE WILL ALSO BE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO MEDIUM...TRYING TO TIME CONVECTION AFTER 18Z SUNDAY....AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OR DEVELOPS SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FIGURING ON NO THICK FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE AFTER 06Z. HAVE SOME 4 MILES IN HAZE/LGT FOG IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 12Z. WITH FLOW COMING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL EVEN KEEP SOME 6 MILES IN HAZE IN THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS COULD BE GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z SUNDAY. WITH POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE MID OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WEATHER IN TAFS STARTING WITH PKB AROUND 21Z. OF COURSE...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...DID NOT GO AS LOW AS ANY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM COULD TAKE THE OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION COULD VARY...MAY BE SLOWER IN THE SOUTH. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/13/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KTB

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