Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251810 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 210 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS THERE. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH. IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG. ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...PASSING THROUGH OH/PA WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CROSSING CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT ENTERING NW CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN POPS A TOUCH WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEL TIMING. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...COOLING THE NW A BIT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCOMING. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RESULTING IN A DEGREE CHANGE HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY... ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST...SAVE FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL FORM EARLIEST AT EKN...WITH IFR 06-14Z. HAVE IFR OTHER SITES 08-09 TO 14Z...EXCEPT JUST BRIEF MVFR NEAR DAWN CKB WHILE BKW REMAINS VFR TONIGHT. LIGHT SE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO TUE UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD VARY EARLY TUE MORNING. IF LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BECOME REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING...ANY STIRRING OF WIND OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN LESS FOG THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...TRM

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