Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301832 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 232 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12 HAS NEAR TERM MODEL SUPPORT ON THIS IDEA. HAVE SCT COVERAGE BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP PER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TAFS MAY NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT. OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS FCST. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH. A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW ON THU. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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