Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241754 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1254 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLURRIES...OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO EXPECTING A BRIEF PEAK OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS WAVE...BUT WILL FILL BACK IN WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. HAVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WV AND THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLD GROUND IN PLACE. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF WARM AIR SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...THAT MOST AREAS...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL START OUT AS RAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLY STARTING IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY. NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV GENERALLY 20Z THROUGH 00Z AS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HOWEVER...WILL FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS. -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY AFTER 03Z...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN WV AFTER 14Z SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND WV MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L H H H M H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/JW NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...SL

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