Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271034 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 634 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses this morning. High pressure crosses tonight. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the week. Cold front crosses by Sunday but returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Tuesday... Forecast on track with showers ahead of cold front becoming more widely scattered. As of 420 AM Tuesday... A cold front crossing the Ohio River early this morning is likely to become better defined in the surface wind field on mixing after sunrise, but then may become more difficult to find as it jumps the mountains late this morning. Models insist showers break up ahead of the front this morning, as thin mid level CAPE gives way to mid level drying. The chance for midday or early afternoon thunder in the mountains is very small though not quite zero. High pressure builds in for a clear, calm, cool night tonight. Short term consensus blend close to previous and MAV for highs today, the MAV was a bit high. MAV/MET/previous/short term consensus blend used for lows this upcoming radiative cooling night, at or a little below previous. GFS based MOS has had 45 at EKN for days, as has the forecast. Forecast lows tonight are close to records in some cases: LocationForecast low tonightRecordYear CRW Charleston 52 50 1988+prev yrs HTS Huntington 50 47 1915 PKB Parkerburg 50 48 1988 EKN Elkins 45 39 1988 BKW Beckley 48 44 1970 CKB Clarksburg 49 record database is being developed && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... Sfc High pressure prevails across southeast OH and WV through Thursday. A low pressure system will move east over the Great Lakes region Thursday night. Winds become southwest pumping warm air and moisture to the area as a cold front approaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM Monday... A cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will slowly progress east and south to approach southeast OH by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures, abundant moisture and instability could produce some showers or storms activity Friday, Saturday and Saturday night. The front becomes stationary west to east across our area Monday and Tuesday to continue with chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM Tuesday... VFR today with widely scattered, unimpactful showers ahead of cold front this morning. Scattered to at times broken cu deck in the wake of the cold front this afternoon up at 5-6 kft. Clear, calm, cool night tonight as high pressure crosses, with vally fog forming that can go IFR. Light northwest flow in the wake of the front today may become a bit gusty in the mountains this afternoon, before becomes calm tonight, with light west to northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog formation may vary in time and intensity overnight tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.