Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 191849 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 224 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND. TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS 1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AFTER 00Z... MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JMV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.