Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 260006
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
806 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure holds through Wednesday. Strong cold front crosses
Thursday, and another possibly on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM update, no changes necessary
As of 215 PM Tuesday...
High pressure over northern Ontario dominates the sensible weather
with a dry Canadian airmass that is providing broad diurnal
temperature trends. After a cold start this morning, temperatures
have climbed to near 60F as of this issuance in the lowlands, and
expect another sharp drop tonight back into the 30s, with upper
20s possible in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
A warm front is bringing mid/upper level moisture to the Tug Fork
Valley area, which will slowly drift to the northeast through the
evening and tonight. Despite the less than perfect conditions for
frost, have issued an area wide Frost Advisory tonight and a
Freeze Warning for the northeast mountains. Valleys will be
affected more than the hill tops.
Meanwhile, a frontal system approaches from the mid Mississippi
Valley turning the flow back to a southerly component later in the
day Wednesday. The cold front and open wave aloft will be covered
in the short term portion of the forecast. For the near term, no
rain is expected.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...
It will remain very mild Wednesday night with increasing
southeast flow. A fast moving cold front will sweep through
Thursday with showers and perhaps low topped convection. Some
locales may spike above 70 before the cold front crosses in the
afternoon. It will be breezy ahead of and behind the front to
carry into Thursday night. There may be some light post frontal
snow showers in the highest elevations of the northern mountains
Surface high pressure will briefly build into the area
Friday and most of Friday night. This will allow for slightly
below normal highs on Friday. Lows Friday night will feature more
of ridge/valley split with WAA allowing for a mild night on the
ridges compared to the valleys and hollows.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...
Upper level ridging will build into the region Saturday with
another spike in temperatures on warm southwesterly flow.
Adjusted the Forecast Blender output for higher daytime temps,
with upper 70s plausible across southern Lowland zones. Another
fast moving cold front will move across Sunday with the best
chances for showers across the north. Behind this front there
looks to be a brief spell of CAA Sunday night before the upper
ridge builds back in for early next week with much above normal
temps returning, at least for highs.
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 740 PM Tuesday...
Mainly VFR conditions, although patchy MVFR and possibly LIFR
river valley fog possible late, generally after 09Z, mainly in
deep valleys. Any fog will burn off after 13-14Z for a return of
VFR conditions with light surface winds.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight. High Wednesday.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form due to mid deck of clouds.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers Thursday.
WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ005>011-
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ046-047.
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ066-067-
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101>103-
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ003-004.