Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301835 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 235 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSTABLE SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE CROSSES TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARDS END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUSFAR NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPE OVER OUR CWA AS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF DRY AIR BELOW 5KFT IS EATING MOST OF THE RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. MAIN CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT WHEN MOISTURE ADVECTION ERODES THE DRY LAYER AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 IN AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO BUILD AND FFG REMAINS FAIRLY LOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE THE BIG SHOW THOUGH...MORE OF A PRIMER FOR ANYTHING THAT OCCURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED EVENT TONIGHT THAT MAY WARRANT WATER HEADLINES. THE AREA WILL GET A LITTLE BREAK ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM STREAMS A JUICY 1.7 IN PWAT RIVER INTO THE REGION WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY...THUS WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALREADY BACK ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. THAT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIFT FARTHER NORTH WITH A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS. BOTH GFS AND NAM ALSO BRING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON TUESDAY...SO INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS ROBUST AS GFS/NAM. SO WHILE THE ECMWF DOES STILL HAVE PRECIPITATION AROUND...BUT KEEPS IT MORE TIED TO SURFACE WAVE FARTHER EAST. LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 08Z MORNING UPDATE...ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES THU- SAT. IN THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC DEPICTION. KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 22-00Z. PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD VARY...AND PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THEIR PATH. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM/MPK AVIATION...JW

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