Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271843 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 243 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WITH EVEN COLDER AIR TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY TOMORROW BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MODELS ARE DEPICTING A VERY THIN LINE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE ELKINS AREA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND IS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z WED. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ON THE FRONT COULD PACK SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. AS THE SUN SETS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA WILL SET UP WITH DRYER AIR ON THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE TROUGHOUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TO START THE PERIOD...PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME TIMING/ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO...SO STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC...ALTHOUGH DID GO WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE CONTROL. DO HAVE SOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS...GIVING WAY TO LIGHT S SFC FLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORMATION OF FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDS COULD LOWER FASTER THAN FORECASTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IN STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/JS/MZ NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...FB

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