Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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641 FXUS61 KRLX 202345 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 645 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late Monday. This will bring widespread rainfall to the region. Cooler behind the front, becoming warm again next week under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 PM Saturday... Forecast largely on track. Clouds will lower tonight as weak isentropic lift develops across the region in broad WAA. It`s tough to decipher whether drizzle or light rain will dominate overnight and Sunday morning. Given the lack of a well defined warm frontal boundary...this may just take the form of light rain or showers. Pops were kept in the chance range with this update. It will be much warmer tonight, more reminiscent of our typical daytime highs for late January. As of 145 PM Saturday... High pressure continues to provide mostly clear skies mainly across the northern half of our cwa tonight. However, clouds will be in the increase from south to north as a warm front pushes north this evening. Southwest flow will continue well ahead of an approaching cold front. This southwest flow will bring moisture and warm temperatures to the region. A warm front is expected to lift north this afternoon and evening to bring low chance for drizzle, sprinkles, or light rain. This pcpn activity will move north overnight as well as the warm up. Therefore, kept a non-diurnal temperature trend tonight into Sunday morning. Used the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM Saturday... Looking at well above average temperatures to start the period as we sit well within the warm sector or low pressure tracking northeast into the Great Lakes. This system will drag a cold front through the region on Monday. Strong SW return flow will send temperatures soaring and carry some decent moisture into the area. Models agree that front moves through fairly quickly late Monday night, and not expecting a ton of QPF out of it, even with slightly anomalous PWATs for the area. Still looking at a widespread half inch rainfall, with possibly some higher amounts nearing an inch in the the mountains. Colder air rushes in behind the front, but with only some lingering low level moisture, not expecting much in the way of snow. Even in the mountains, only about a half inch of snow accumulation is expected. Orographic accent will be limited with flow generally staying WSW to straight westerly behind the front, so this will help keep accumulations light. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Saturday... Model guidance is in fairly good agreement as we head later in the week. May see a few snow showers in the mountains Wednesday into Thursday in NW flow and upper trough swinging through. However, after that, the trend has been for another warm up as we close out the period. Large high pressure and upper ridge build over the area at the end of the period and beyond with return flow over the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 PM Saturday... Isentropic lift in low level WAA will allow areas of light rain...drizzle...and showers to develop overnight into Sunday morning. MVFR stratus will develop this evening...lowering into IFR across northern terminals and KBKW overnight. It appears the best chance for vsby reducing light rain would be in the 12 to 15Z time frame. Conditions improve Sunday afternoon, with low stratus lifting from south to north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add IFR visibilities if drizzle or rain materialize late tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible Monday/Monday night under rain showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...30

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