Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210736 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 336 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front slowly drifts northeast across Central West Virginia this morning. A cold front crosses from the west tonight. High pressure crosses through Monday night, then low pressure and unsettled conditions for the remainder of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 335 AM Sunday... A cold front will slowly pass through the region today through tonight. Showers and storms out ahead of the front will be entering the Ohio Valley around dawn. Decided not to make any changes to the Flash Flood Watch at this time, but was considering extending it another row of counties northward. Forecast soundings indicate PWATs around 1.75" which is about 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Also, efficient rain processes with deep warm cloud depth has raised concern. However, Flash Flood guidance values are a bit higher across the north, so have decided to hold off with the expansion of the watch. An isolated incident, especially in poor drainage areas will certainly be possible though. Generally we are looking at a moderate to heavy rainfall for the entire area with 1 to 2 inches of QPF expected. The severe thunderstorm threat is very low to basically nonexistent today, but embedded thunderstorms will produce localized heavy downpours. Conditions will improve later tonight from west to east with high pressure moving in behind the front. Depending on how much clearing we see, areas of dense valley fog will be possible early Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Saturday... The cold front will be crossing the eastern mountains with some lingering rain showers Monday morning. The timing of the cold front is unfavorable from diurnal heating and pwats around 1 inch, rainfall should be light. Brief high pressure brings dry and cool conditions Monday night into early Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 305 PM Saturday... The chances for rain return Wednesday with the next complex low pressure system. There are good chances for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms with enough instability and pwats around 1.7 inches. Temperatures will return to a more seasonable level during this period. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 AM Sunday... Convection is dying down across the Ohio Valley and most of the region should be dry the remainder of the night. HTS received over an inch of rain yesterday afternoon with thunderstorms and this added moisture will possibly help produce some fog and IFR conditions through daybreak there. There is some decent winds in the lower boundary layer which could cause enough turbulent mixing to hinder fog development. The other trouble spot through the morning hours will be BKW, where upsloping southeast flow is producing some low stratus over the mountains. They will likely remain on the verge of IFR ceilings and there is quite a bit of uncertainty on how low ceilings may fall through morning. A cold front is expected to bring a long window of widespread showers and thunderstorms today. Should see rain pushing into the far east of the Ohio River close to dawn and the unsettled conditions will last well into Sunday night. MVFR conditions will be common Sunday, with IFR possible in heavier rain and thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and placement of fog may vary through the early morning hours. Conditions will vary in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L H L L H M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, fog and stratus late overnight Sunday night into Monday, and in fog overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning.. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005-013-024>026- 033-034-515-516. OH...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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