Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281804 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 204 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will sag southward on Monday and Tuesday...with a stronger front on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Sunday... Will look for a bit more coverage of convection later thru the remainder of the afternoon over the N WV mountains and along the OH River and into SE OH especially...in association with a weakness in the ridge where some deeper moisture resides. Elected to let the heat advisory run its course as the mid deck is breaking up. After some lingering shra/tsra across SE OH this evening...will look for patchy dense river valley fog to set up in the usual locales. The upper high looks to reposition itself further to the W on Monday...putting the area in more of a NW flow regime aloft with a weak cold front trying to cross in the afternoon. Isolated shra/tsra can be expected...especially across the mountains. Highs will be similar to today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Models showing a cold front sagging southward into the area on Monday...gradually pushing southward on Tuesday. There is considerable spread in the models with the position of this front...which drastically effects the forecast. Used a ECMWF and GFS blend for now...which remains on the northerly side of guidance with the frontal position. This seems reasonable due to the very light flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 PM Saturday... Guidance is in good agreement with large ridge developing over the Central U.S. by Mid week and a upper level trough digging into the Eastern U.S. Cold front looks to cross the region late Wednesday with a chance for showers and storms but the good news is that this will bring cooler and drier air behind it. Temperatures look to be around normal for this time of year by the end of the week...with highs in the low 80s and lows near 60. However...the break may be short as ridge in the Central U.S. will likely slide east by next weekend...opening the door for tropical moisture into the region once again. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Sunday... 18Z Sunday through 18Z Monday... Isolated to scattered shra/tsra can be expected...especially across the mountains. A mid level disturbance will help to focus coverage more into SE OH early this evening before waning. So...have some VCTS at KEKN/KPKB where confidence is highest and just a scattered to broken 4 to 5 thousand ft cig elsewhere. Dense river valley fog will form overnight...quicker for any TAF site that receiving rain. As a result...some IFR or worse in fog was coded up in the TAFs tonight save for KCKB/KBKW. Any fog will lift by 13Z for a return to VFR conditions areawide thru 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: T-showers may impact TAF sites. Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008- 013>015-024>026. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...30

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