Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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882 FXUS61 KRLX 261921 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses Thursday with showers. High pressure Friday into Saturday. A weak cold front Saturday night or Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Radar has been picking some echoes aloft with the warm front and 10kft ceilings. These have since moved out of the areas, with a decrease in cloud cover over the I-64 corridor. Warm advection is occurring aloft, and expect that to continue into the overnight. This will keep overnight lows from dropping very far at all, and have these lows generally a couple of degrees above the guidance numbers. Overall, kept the consistency in the timing of the line of showers late tonight entering Perry/Morgan counties in Ohio. Southern end of the front is acting frontolytically, so the POPs in this area tonight into Thursday are largely capped at chance. Even where the POPs are higher across the northern tier of counties, the QPF for this front and the accompanying upper level open wave are low. Most places will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain through 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... Models showing strong cold air advection Thursday night behind the cold front. With some low level moisture remaining near the mountains in the northwest flow, can not rule out some light rain or drizzle. A warm front will then push northward across the area on Friday. With the low level moisture having dried out by then, no precipitation is expected with the front. High pressure then builds in Friday night and remains into Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... Lots of uncertainty with the timing of a cold front moving through sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night, with a possible wave along the front. Therefore, will keep pops fairly generic without specific timing. Uncertainty in the pattern continues into the next week with a wide spread of solutions between models. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 140 PM Wednesday... VFR to begin with ceilings lowering through the TAF period. Winds to veer to the southwest in the 10 to 15 kt range as rain moves into the northern terminals. Some MVFR visibilities possible in -SHRA when rain overspreads PKB, EKN and CKB. Rain chances are possible at some point everywhere, but too low for prevailing conditions at the southern terminals. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible in showers Thursday evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY/30 AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.