Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190710 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 210 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. A strong cold front crosses late Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 AM Friday... Quiet near term period ahead. Not much in the way of clouds with a dry column in place. This does create tricky low temperature forecasts... with some snow on the ground and clear skies, spots the decouple have the potential to really drop quickly. But, with some WAA off the surface, and lingering flow the question becomes if valleys can decouple or not. So far early this morning, we have kept a surface puff going at most locations and temperatures have not dropped overly fast -- in fact here at the office we have been warming slightly over the last couple hours. Models have quite a spread tomorrow night as well, opted to go colder than the previous forecast by several degrees for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 205 AM Friday... Upper low moving west to east over the deep south will have lower level moisture caught in the southwest flow and will advect into the central Appalachians. Meanwhile, deepening cyclone over the central plains coming off the Rockies brings a warm front towards the area with overrunning producing scattered rain across the region. Frontal system will eject into the Mississippi valley with strengthening flows that will push the warm frontal precipitation to the north. Warm air advection, slowed slightly by the upper level low to the south, will get in gear in the long term prior to frontal passage. ALl in all, QPF with the overrunning will be very light, and temperatures by Sunday should still reach lowland 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 205 AM Thursday... Breezy conditions likely, sub advisory, as mild air continues to pump northward ahead of the cold front that should be a relatively quick mover through the area. Despite the strength of the cold front and the Pacific origin and strong 850mb moisture advection, no thunder is expected. POPs increase quickly after 18Z Monday, and the system quickly exits to the northeast. Flow aloft settles back into a zonal pattern for the back end of the extended forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Friday... VFR expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be S to SW, with some gusts of 15-20 kts possible during the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 01/19/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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