Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191740 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 140 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front today brings a shower or storm to northern areas. High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front mid week. Cooler and drier for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM Saturday... Forecast remains mostly on-track and just made some minor changes to sky cover based on current METSAT and Obs. Becoming a little concerned for the risk of severe weather across our Northern Forecast Zones this afternoon. Upper trough swings through this afternoon through early this evening, but plenty of dry air in the mid-levels will likely hinder the development of convection. With strong diurnal heating, decent remaining low level moisture and cool temps aloft causing mid-level lapse rates around 7C/Km, we may be able to produce a few updrafts that could punch through the capping layer. Any development will likely be on the Northern Fringe of our CWA and storms could end up staying well off to our north in PA, but will have to continue to monitor and see where convection kicks off this afternoon out ahead the approaching upper trough. As of 625 AM saturday... Updated to increase cirrus canopy this morning per satellite/obs. As of 300 AM Saturday... Models have a short wave and weakening cold front crossing the area later today. Models indicate only a modest return flow of moisture ahead of this front, and more importantly weakening support aloft. The forecast soundings are rather unimpressive for instability, but cannot rule out a summer sun to help destabilize things a bit this afternoon. Will paint a chance of showers and possibly a storm across the north later today with this feature, as this will be the area of best support and moisture pooling. Elsewhere, will keep rain free. Any convection will rapidly decrease this evening with the loss of heating and as high pressure builds in tonight. Temperatures will be slightly above normal today, but not that humid. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Return flow sets up to bring the high dewpoints, which really had not fallen off much with the last cold front on Friday, to more tropical type levels again, and temperatures back towards 90F in the lowlands through Tuesday. Some isolated POPs exist during the short term in the mountains with generally zonal flow aloft. This will be the last of the heat in the foreseeable future with the next cold front pushing into the forecast area Tuesday night. Expecting a cumulus field to develop in the daytime heating on Monday for the eclipse. Should be more sun than clouds, but cannot foresee a completely clear sky with this issuance. Cloud coverage could be a bit more over the mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Deep open wave pushes through the Great Lakes with an airmass changing cold front from Wednesday through the end of the week. Dewpoints should be back into the 50s in the Canadian airmass and lowlands largely in the mid to upper 70s for the lowlands Thursday and Friday. Overall trough pattern looks to persist over the eastern CONUS going beyond day 7. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 135 PM Saturday... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible across northern sites as an upper trough swings through. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Confidence is still too low at this time to put any showers or storms on-site, but PKB, CKB and EKN may see brief IFR conditions this afternoon into this evening. Tonight... Clouds and showers exit northeastern WV as high pressure builds in. Under mostly clear skies and near calm winds, look for widespread IFR river valley fog from around midnight through early Sunday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and storms may impact PKB, CKB, and EKN and brief IFR conditions are possible. Also, timing, density, and location of fog tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK

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