Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180629 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak system late today into Sunday with scattered showers. Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1220 AM Saturday... Quite the spread between ridges and hollows right now, as some lower areas have decoupled and dropped into the 30s, while ridges remain mixed and in the upper 40s and 50s. Generally expect things to remain status quo through early this morning, but there could be some bouncing around and a puff of wind mixes things up from time to time. Clouds will be on the increase into this afternoon as a weak system approaches from the SW. Models differ some on just how robust the moisture will be with this system. Will have pretty dry air to overcome initially, so held back on the POPs through early afternoon. Then have isolated to scattered showers drifting north late afternoon into tonight. With southwesterly wind through the period, temperatures will be unseasonably warm. Mid 60s will be common across the lowland today, with 50s in the mountains. Overnight lows will be in the 40s across most of the CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Saturday... A weak system brushes the CWA Sunday morning with scattered showers. Anomalously warm pattern continues with temperatures reaching 70 degrees many times this week.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Saturday... The very warm pattern continues through the week. A weak system passes Wednesday. This prolonged stretch of warmth will allow for an early start to budding and blooming of some varieties trees/vegetation.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1220 AM Saturday... Clouds will gradually be on the increase, and lower through the day as a weak system approached from the SW. Isolated to scattered showers expected, by late afternoon. Ceilings will eventually drop into MVFR but generally expect that to be after 06Z Sunday. Winds will be fairly consistent out of the SW through the TAF period, with some ridge line gusts of 15-20kts this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers may vary. Could have brief visibility restrictions in showers. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/30/26 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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