Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241551 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1151 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. High pressure will provide dry weather through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1140 AM Monday... Made some tweaks to POPs for today -- went a bit higher right along the front. Hi-res guidance continues to show isolated to scattered precip developing this afternoon and drifting east. Have very moist low levels -- with dew points in the 60s and low 70s. However, model soundings show a cap just above 800mb, with very dry air from there up through 300mb. Due to this, think the best chance for showers and storms will be right along the front as it drifts through. Somewhat uncertain with potential for thunder...so maintained mainly isolated rumbles. Its going to take a really good updraft to punch through the cap and sustain itself in the dry air above the boundary layer. As of 625 AM Monday... Radar loops shows the last of the showers moving east out of Webster/Nicholas counties. Expect fog and low clouds to dissipate by mid morning. A cold front will push southeast from the OH Valley across the central Appalachians tonight. The hires guidance develops isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection along/ahead of the advancing cold front mainly between 18-23z. Clearing skies tonight should result in valley fog which may become dense in spots early Tuesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Monday... High pressure in control with seasonable temperatures through Wednesday night. Increasing clouds from the west during Wendesday night as another system approaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 335 AM Monday... Sfc low tracks across the northern portion of CWA on Thursday with trailing cold front crossing the region Thursday night. Models differ on the exact track of the low, in any case increased pops across the region on Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure builds in across the area on Friday and into the weekend. Increasing moisture through Sunday and there is chance for diurnal showers in the mountains on Saturday and Sunday with the lowlands staying dry. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Monday... Patchy MVFR-VLIFR fog and low stratus will dissipate with widespread VFR by 15z. Predominantly VFR expected from mid morning through the afternoon. Brief sub-VFR restrictions are possible in isolated-widely scattered showers and Tstorms 18-23Z. Coverage is sparse enough to preclude mention in 24/12z TAFs. A cold front will push southeast across the airspace by tonight with high pressure building into the area for Tuesday. Clearing skies and light winds should promote valley fog formation into early Tuesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Increased convective coverage this afternoon. No fog late tonight into Tuesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Mainly VFR through midweek. Tstorm impacts likely Thursday into Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...MZ/99 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...99

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