Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310615 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 212 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT STALLS IN OUR VICINITY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK FLOW TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... MORE ELIMINATION OF THE POPS...BUT STILL CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHTS. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TLC FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS DUE TO A LACK OF OBVIOUS TRIGGERING MECHANISMS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VORTICITY LOBE AND 850 MB JET SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY. WILL RAISE POPS ALONG THESE FEATURES...BUT OTHERWISE KEEP A FAIRLY GENERIC DIURNAL TREND. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF FRONT AS THE UPPER TROF HANGS BACK. IT NOW APPEARS BEST SHOT OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY E OF OH RIVER. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN BY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST HANDLING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WHERE IT RAIN SATURDAY EVENING. THINKING ELKINS MAY IMPROVE BY DAWN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE IN INDIANA AT 06Z COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS REACHING OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES 08Z TO 10Z...THEN MOVE THROUGH WV 10 TO 15Z. HAVE CLOUDS AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT INCREASING WITH THAT FEATURE. HARD TO TIME ADDITIONAL ROUNDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE MAIN CHANCES AFTER 19Z EAST AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WV...RATHER THAN SE OHIO. CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY AOB 3 MILES IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION...BUT KEPT TAFS MOSTLY MVFR VSBY. INSTABILITY WANES SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THINKING SHOWERS WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WV AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASING FORECAST ON THE FRONT STALLING NEAR CKB-CRW BY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...OR 06Z MONDAY. LOWER CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT MAY FORM IN SE OHIO 03Z TO 06Z MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HAVE WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS 3 TO 4 THSD FT 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING THE LOWERING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COULD VARY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. .AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR IN CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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