Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232321 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 721 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER WITH A CLEAR...CALM NIGHT IN STORE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG WILL FORM AT EKN TONIGHT...STAYED CLOSE TO THE LAV WITH MVFR FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PRE DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY. .AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...MZ

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