Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280529 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY 12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H L L L H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30 HYDROLOGY...26

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