-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210710
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
250 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbance today with a shower possible north. Tropical
moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 AM Wednesday...

Weak disturbance aloft with will work thru today with a weak
frontal zone setting up across the mid/upper OH Valley. This
will provide the forcing for isolated showers/storms this
afternoon across portions of southeast OH and northern WV.
Elsewhere intervals of cirrus will be noted. Temps will rebound
back above normal, with Lowland readings topping out in the mid
to upper 80s.

Tonight...the aforementioned frontal boundary will become more
of a warm front as it lifts northeast. Northern WV be located in
the vicinity of this boundary for an isolated shower mention.
Otherwise, a warmer night amid the increase in cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

Models showing tropical moisture pushing into the region Thursday
into Thursday night. The moisture then remains until a cold front
moves through Friday night into Saturday. Some differences still
exist in the models, especially with handling the remains of Cindy`s
circulation and precipitation amounts. Getting increasingly
concerned with the threat of flooding. Would like to see the model
precipitation fields settle down a bit more before issuing a Flood
Watch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

Lots a variability in the models for Sunday into Monday. Some models
have much cooler air moving in with the initial cold front Friday
night and Saturday, while other models hold back the majority of the
cooler air until another cold front moves through Sunday night into
Monday. This leads to a low confidence forecast for this period.

Cooler air should definitely be in place for Tuesday with the area
under an upper level trough. Models have disturbances moving through
the trough, but vary on the strength and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions thru dawn with just some MVFR fog expected at
KEKN as cirrus should keep dense fog at bay. A weak upper air
disturbance and associated front will provide enough lift for
isolated showers and storms Wednesday across southeast OH and
northern WV. Chances are too low for any mention in the northern
TAF sites at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions amid intervals
of cirrus south and sct cu north.

A warm front will try to set up across northern WV tonight with
isolated showers forecast. Increase in cloud cover will keep
terminals VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium with fog through dawn at
EKN.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if
winds decouple more and cirrus exits.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 06/21/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30