Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010542 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 142 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW MID TO UPPER LEVEL DECK ACROSS CKB DRIFTING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH FOG FORMATION ALONG RIVER VALLEYS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 730 PM UPDATE... TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...AS CLOUD COVER/CU DISSIPATING QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH WHERE MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY IS IN THE CARDS. ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET...WITH CU FIELD TO FOLLOW. THIS SETS UP A MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT FLOW...A RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH BEST SHOT AT SEEING A POPCORN SHRA/TSRA BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MOST SITES DURING PREDAWN HOURS. HTS SEEMS THE FIRST ONE TO FOG ALREADY IN MVFR VISIBILITIES UNDER FOG. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DECK ACROSS CKB SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER EKN PREVENTING OR DELAYING FOG FORMATION THERE. FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DIURNAL CU AND ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP...MORE LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L L L M H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30 SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...ARJ

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