-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 151031
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
631 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms tapering off from west to east today. High
pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled
pattern returns to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Updated POPs based on recent radar and hi-res guidance. Main
change was to add isolated showers across SE Ohio.

As of 145 AM Tuesday...

Showers ongoing across central and eastern CWA as a series of
500mb ripples move through. There is also a weak surface
wave currently across central KY which will drift eastward
through the early morning. 00Z NAM and recent HRRR runs had a
decent depiction of the current radar, so used a blend of those for
the POPs through today. Also added mention of thunder across
the coal field for the next couple hours. May need to
extend/expand this based on current lightning trends. Do have
lightning returning late this morning into this afternoon --
mainly across the mountainous counties.

Otherwise, have POPs gradually tapering off from west to east
through today as a surface high moves into the Great Lakes
pushing the deeper moisture south and east.

Despite lots of clouds around initially, temperatures will be
very close to normal values for mid August.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Weak ridging should keep us dry though shower activity should
increase as an approaching upper level trough arrives Friday.
Best chance for organized convection would be Thursday evening
with rather high PWs in the 2.5" range with dynamics on the
weaker side of the spectrum. This period will need to be
monitored, so will headline in the HWO. Shower activity should
linger into Friday evening before decreasing overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

By Saturday morning, showers should be relegated to the
mountains with drier weather for the beginning of next week as
surface high pressure builds. A mid level wave passes Sunday
morning, so there may be a temporary increase in activity then.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Showers ongoing mainly along east/south of the Ohio River. Some
thunder in this as well across far SE. Expect varying
conditions as showers move through however, have low confidence
on timing of these changes. Precipitation should gradually
taper off from west to east... and stratus deck will also
scatter out from west to east into this afternoon.

High pressure to our north tonight should equal fewer clouds,
with dense river valley fog expected after midnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and visibilities could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week.
Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on
clouds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ