-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
710
FXUS61 KRLX 072315
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible the rest of the week,
as a front wobbles in and out of mainly northern portions of
the area, and weak mid-level disturbances cross.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 625 PM Monday...

After a mid-afternoon spike in scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area, showers and thunderstorms early
this evening were focused in a zone across south-central Ohio,
ahead of the cold front. These showers and thunderstorms will
become a bit more numerous in southeast Ohio this evening, while
spreading into northern West Virginia.

Showers and thunderstorms will then diminish after sunset, but
remain possible through the overnight hours, especially across
northern and central portions of the area, as a mid-level short
wave trough pushes through, and pushes the cold front into
southeast Ohio by dawn Tuesday.

Thunderstorms broke the heat across portions of the area this
afternoon, although only momentarily in some cases, and a warm,
muggy night remains on tap. The showers and thunderstorms will
also promote areas of fog overnight in locations that received
or receive the rain.

As of 1205 PM Monday...

Little change in overall thinking in the near term period. Frontal
boundary to the north of the CWA will sag south towards the Ohio
River vicinity late tonight/early Tuesday, and generally remain in
the vicinity through the near term period. Weak ripples in the flow,
combined with daytime heating will result in scattered showers and
storms today, of which the bulk will dissipate after loss of
heating. Not expecting much in the way of severe, owing to a lack of
substantial shear, but ample cape could yield storms with ample
growth, and in theory, an isolated severe/damaging wind potential.
SPC did elect in their day 1 update to expand the marginal risk
across SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley region. Storms as usual will contain
heavy downpours, but not anticipating much in the way of flooding
with drier conditions in place.

Areas of fog will be possible tonight in locations that receive rain.

More showers and storms can be expected on Tuesday, as the area
remains in the warm, unstable environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage mid week, as a surface
low moves east through the area, and a more potent upper shortwave
trough affects the area. Overall severe threat still looks to be on
the low end during this period, but plenty of instability, and a
slight uptick in shear could warrant an isolated strong to severe
storm. Heavy downpours will continue to be a threat, but storms will
have overall a little better movement than in the near term period,
with steering flow around 20-25 kts in general.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

Weather continues to remain unsettled in the extended period with
uncertainty in details this far out. However, period looks to remain
hot and humid, with area largely in the warm sector, with showers
and storms possible from passing disturbances/heating. Continued
convection/associated cloud cover should hopefully strive to keep
temperatures and associated heat indices during the period below
advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 715 PM Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms over the middle Ohio Valley this
evening, including in and around PKB and CKB where gusty winds
and IFR in heavy rain are possible, will diminish through 01-02Z
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
the overnight hours across northern and central portions of the
area, as a mid-level short wave trough pushes through, and
pushes a cold front into southeast Ohio by dawn Tuesday.

The showers and thunderstorms will promote areas of fog
overnight in locations that received or receive the rain. Fog
was coded up at the northern sites, but is possible at the
southern sites where it rained earlier this past afternoon.
Low MVFR stratocumulus is possible, mainly across the north
including parts of SE Ohio and NE KY, and perhaps a few WV TAF
sites, early Tuesday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Tuesday, as the
front generally remains in the vicinity, and much of the area
remains in a warm, unstable environment. Thunderstorms were not
yet coded in the forecast Tuesday on account of uncertainty in
coverage and location, but showers and thunderstorms are most
likely in and near the northern and central mountains of WV
Tuesday afternoon.

Light and variable to calm surface flow tonight will become
light west to southwest Tuesday morning, and then veer to light
west to northwest during Tuesday afternoon. Surface flow may be
gusty and erratic in and near thunderstorms. Flow aloft will be
light west to southwest, perhaps mainly west by late Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of convection may vary
from the forecast. Development of fog and/or MVFR stratocumulus
overnight into early Tuesday morning could vary from what is
currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...

Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day this week. Patchy IFR fog possible overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM