Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 241903
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
303 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Low pressure meanders slowly through the carolinas through
Tuesday, and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic
seaboard through Wednesday night. Next front Thursday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...
The low pressure center passes south of the area into the
Carolinas tonight and Tuesday. Rain showers will be decreasing
in coverage and intensity mainly over the eastern mountains
Low level stratus will develop over the eastern mountains
overnight. Models show boundary layer winds of 20-25 knots
northeast mountains, ranging to 10 knots lower elevations.
Therefore, not expecting widespread IFR fog development due to
good ventilation and plenty cloudiness expected.
Went closer to the blend of all models for temperatures through
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Monday...
High pressure and ridging aloft starts to build into the region
late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will soar on
Wednesday under the ridge, with highs climbing into the low to
mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Even the mountains will see
temperatures climb into the upper 60s to low 70s with strong
warm air advection at H850. Conditions will remain dry through
at least 12Z Thursday, with all guidance holding off an
approaching cold front until after the short term period.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM Monday...
Guidance is in fairly good agreement with a cold front pushing
into the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon. The current timing of
having the front approaching around max heating makes for higher
probability for scattered thunderstorms. CAPE values are still
looking fairly modest for the day and even with decent 0-6km
bulk shear of around 40 knots. Still not thinking widespread
severe weather at this point, but as previous forecast
mentioned, thunderstorms with heavy downpours and maybe some
damaging winds due to the decent shear may be possible.
After brief period of high pressure for the end of the work
week, things turn unsettled again for the weekend as warm front
pushes through. Temperatures are likely to soar into the mid and
possibly upper 80s. Current forecast guidance keeps the front in
our vicinity through the weekend and will be the focus for more
showers and thunderstorms.
Finally, we will have to keep an eye to see how the forecast
unfolds as we enter next week. Ensemble and operational
guidance is hinting at an anomalous low pressure tracking into
the Great Lake and dragging a strong cold front through on
Monday. With this being day 7 of the forecast, there is still
plenty to be sorted out, but will just mention the potential is
there for a significant system.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1100 AM Monday...
As a deep low pressure system moves further east, its influence
on the local weather decrease more and more. Western sites will
enjoy of VFR conditions through the period. There should be
enough clouds and wind to preclude widespread fog tonight, but
the stratus may move back west over BKW overnight. However,
abundant low level moisture and gentle to moderate boundary
layered winds from the east will allow for low stratus formation
along the eastern mountains including EKN and BKW overnight
Surface flow will be light east to northeast, except east to
southeast in the mountains, and around 10 kts and gusty at BKW
today. Flow aloft will be light to moderate southeast tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing on IFR low stratus along the eastern
mountains could vary. Some sheltered places could see morning
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.