Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210710 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 250 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbance today with a shower possible north. Tropical moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 125 AM Wednesday... Weak disturbance aloft with will work thru today with a weak frontal zone setting up across the mid/upper OH Valley. This will provide the forcing for isolated showers/storms this afternoon across portions of southeast OH and northern WV. Elsewhere intervals of cirrus will be noted. Temps will rebound back above normal, with Lowland readings topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight...the aforementioned frontal boundary will become more of a warm front as it lifts northeast. Northern WV be located in the vicinity of this boundary for an isolated shower mention. Otherwise, a warmer night amid the increase in cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 AM Wednesday... Models showing tropical moisture pushing into the region Thursday into Thursday night. The moisture then remains until a cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday. Some differences still exist in the models, especially with handling the remains of Cindy`s circulation and precipitation amounts. Getting increasingly concerned with the threat of flooding. Would like to see the model precipitation fields settle down a bit more before issuing a Flood Watch. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 AM Wednesday... Lots a variability in the models for Sunday into Monday. Some models have much cooler air moving in with the initial cold front Friday night and Saturday, while other models hold back the majority of the cooler air until another cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday. This leads to a low confidence forecast for this period. Cooler air should definitely be in place for Tuesday with the area under an upper level trough. Models have disturbances moving through the trough, but vary on the strength and timing. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions thru dawn with just some MVFR fog expected at KEKN as cirrus should keep dense fog at bay. A weak upper air disturbance and associated front will provide enough lift for isolated showers and storms Wednesday across southeast OH and northern WV. Chances are too low for any mention in the northern TAF sites at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions amid intervals of cirrus south and sct cu north. A warm front will try to set up across northern WV tonight with isolated showers forecast. Increase in cloud cover will keep terminals VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium with fog through dawn at EKN. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if winds decouple more and cirrus exits. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 06/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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