-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 121901
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. NEXT
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT EVIDENT ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THE DEWPOINT AND
DIURNAL CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE STRUGGLING TO LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL HEATING DECREASES...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AS WELL LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT H850 WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT PROVIDING
SOME VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THERE HAS NOT BEEN PCPN
THIS AFTERNOON SO FAR...SO POST RAIN FOG CAN BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG OVER
PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS LIKE TYGART VALLEY.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING STRONG WAA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S. CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
GOOD CONSENSUS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DEPEND ON RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY INTO THE LOW 50S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS
OFF TO OUR WEST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  NAM APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WHILE
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST.  HOURLY POPS WERE GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF TIMING...SO
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY...
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY.

OTHER THAN HIGHS ON MONDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
NUMBERS...AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. NEW MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS MONDAY WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NUMBERS. HAVE
TWEAKED FORECAST NUMBERS UP TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SE STATES AND THEN
MOVING UP THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCT THUNDER
WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY...BUT NOT GREAT.
LOW QUICKLY MOVES UP FRONT AND CONTINUES HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA.
THEN MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A LITTLE
SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT...NOTICEABLE IN DEWPOINT FIELDS SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM SECTOR..SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...A CU FIELD IS BUILDING AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION. CODED A
BKN DECK AROUND 3500 FEET SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY AFFECTING
BKW. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS
DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE CU FIELD AND VERY FEW AND
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUT OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IF ANY.

EXPECT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING SUNDAY. CODED THIS
FEATURE IN THE EXPECTED PART OF TAF. HIT AND MISS PCPN PRESENT LOW
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SHOWERS IN TAF AT THIS POINT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

WITH WIND INCREASING ALOFT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LESS FOG FORMATION
EXCEPT OVER SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS IF THEY RECEIVE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW PER LAV AND OTHER GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF EITHER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OCCURRENCE OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
COULD MATERIALIZE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...ARJ