-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 042353
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
653 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
645 PM UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
CHANGE OVER TO PL/SN IS MAYBE A HAIR SLOWER THAN WHAT IS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A DELAY TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE
IN THE FORECAST. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME
UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


PREV DISCN...
RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING
THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS STILL
OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER HEADLINES AND CRITERIA
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS ...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF
THE AREA.  THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE
DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT
AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S.

STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT.
THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
20Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...
HEAVY RAIN...WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN TO
ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. EXPECTING ALL OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 01Z...WITH CHANGE OVER ACROSS
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES NEAR TO OHIO RIVER
BY 03Z INCLUDING SITES KPKB AND KHTS...AND CHANGE OVER ACROSS MOST
OF REMAINING WEST VA AND VA COUNTIES AFTER 06Z. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT PERSIST AS LONG AS
FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>008-
     013>020-024>032-035>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ009>011.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ033-034.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL