-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 091004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
504 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE CROSSES TODAY. A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED. CHILLY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH AREAS OF CLEARING
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.  MODELS SHOW AN MID TO UPPER AIR VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA BY 18
TUESDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF RAIN SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING
UP WITH RAIN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY. WITH SATURATED
TERRAIN...KEPT FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF WV...SOUTHWEST
VA AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...0.5
TO 0.75 INCHES IN 6 HOURS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM RALEIGH...NORTH TO
WEBSTER FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHILE WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY.

WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BASED HEAVILY ON THE RAP AND WRF GUIDANCE.

WENT WITH THE WRF AND THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ACTIVE AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. YET ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STILL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE TN/NC/GA
AREA AT 12Z TUE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUE MORNING.
EXPECT TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP AT THE OUTSET...ONE ENTERING THE
SE OHIO ZONES AND THE OTHER PUSHING UP FROM THE SW WITH THE SFC LOW.
THESE SHOULD MERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY MID-LATE MORNING ON
IT/S WAY OUT OF OUR AREA. VARIOUS QPF OUTPUT DEPICTING ROUGHLY
0.1-0.2 INCHES IN GENERAL...WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS PARTICULARLY ON
THE FINER RESOLUTION NAM12. TOUGH CALL ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE HIGHEST QPF AND WITH THE SYSTEM BEING
SUCH A FAST-MOVER. A GENERAL INCH OR SO APPEARS REASONABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE LOWLANDS LATE MON NIGHT GOING INTO TUE MORNING. THE AREA
HOWEVER COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG JET
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AROUND THE 12Z TUE TIME FRAME WITH GOOD
UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR. A BIT CONCERNED WITH PROGGED EPV AND
THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS WITH GOOD SATURATION ABOVE THE COLD
DOME...NOT TO MENTION SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...THAT SOME LOCATIONS
MAY SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES/ACCUMULATIONS IN NARROW
MESOSCALE BANDS THROUGH SLANTWISE AND/OR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.
CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY FOR TUE MORNING...BUT AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT ONE MORE LOOK AT
LATEST DATA. DID BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS...AGAIN...TO AROUND THE 1-2
INCH RANGE WITH SOME 2-3 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. SNOWFALL WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 18Z TUE WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINING BY 00Z WED. ALSO NUDGED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT TUESDAY PER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND 925MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING. MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z WED. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW GOOD COOLING WITH TEENS EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER SE OHIO AND OF
COURSE THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN PERHAPS A FEW MORE
CLOUDS NORTH. BUT OTHERWISE A DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COOL...DAY IS ON
TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV
FCST. SFC WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. A QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT RESULTS IN
ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME BREEZY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS WED NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER. THUS WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE WED NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE HOWEVER...WITH ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW
TENTHS POSSIBLE. MINS AGAIN WILL BE JUST ABOUT IDENTICAL TO TUE
NIGHT/S...WITH TEENS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWLANDS AND PERHAPS LOWER
20S FOR THE COALFIELDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS.

DRY AIR AND THE LONG DECEMBER NIGHTS YIELDS COLD DAWN TEMPERATURES.

DOWN THE ROAD...MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY...HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
BY SATURDAY FOR RAIN AND SNOW.  STILL APPEARS NOT A HEAVY EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERHAPS THE LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN UNDER 35 DEGREES MOVING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. THEN...AREAS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR WILL BE COMMON UNDER AREAS OF RAIN. A LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 500 FEET IS EXPECTED TO FORM OR CONTINUE ACROSS MOST SITES
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

AREAS OF LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING MAINLY 03Z THROUGH 14Z OVERNIGHT...LIFTING
TO IFR/MVFR FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 12/09/13
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ADDITIONAL PARTS FOR PARKERSBURG ASOS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN.



&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ035-
     036-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ037-
     038.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ