Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271445 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1045 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream systems. The next system crosses tonight into Tuesday, and then another crosses late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM Monday... Forecast on track with area in a brief lull between systems. Latest model runs indicate showers along with some thunderstorms, may move into the area more quickly later this afternoon. Nudged PoPs in this direction but may need to do so even more. As of 630 AM Monday... Still a few lingering showers across NE CWA. Showers and thunderstorms already moving into the Lower Ohio River Valley with the next system. As of 130 AM Monday... Showers coming to an end early this morning as one low pressure system begins to pull away. Have some low POPs across the northern mountains this morning to account for a possible lingering shower, however for most of the forecast area it should be dry into this afternoon. Then attention turns to a surface low working its way into the Lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon/evening. Upper level support will be weakening as the system moves into the area tonight. Still looks good for some thunder. Models do show some decent CAPE -- 500-800 J/kg in the Ohio River Valley. The NAM is not real impressive on shear -- however the RAP shows an area of 40-50kts bulk shear along and west of the Ohio River. Better chance of strong to severe storms should remain west of forecast area, but there is a low end chance of a strong storm making it into the Tri-State later today. Generally looking at basin average rainfall amounts around 0.25-0.5" late today and tonight. Higher amounts should be near and west of the Ohio River, closer to the low. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Monday... Shortwave and associated weak low pressure system cross region Tuesday for more rain showers and thunderstorms. All parameters show little significant weather with this system. A ridge of high pressure builds in this systems` wake and keeps us dry into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 AM Monday... Another upper level wave approaches the area for Friday. This system is slightly more organized than the other systems this week, but not my much. So more of the same expected with thunderstorms though as a result of the active pattern water issues may become more of an issue as soils saturate though the breaks between systems obviously help. High pressure builds Saturday and Sunday for another dry break with cooler temperatures, but still above freezing - even for the mountains. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 AM Monday... Some scattered fog out there this morning, however with a puff of breeze not expecting much impact at TAF sites. IFR ceilings pretty close to PKB. Low chance these could make it to the airport, but did not include IFR in TAF. Any lingering MVFR will clear out in next few hours with VFR for most of today. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from the west late today, remaining around into tonight. May have MVFR to IFR with these. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR ceilings may make it into PKB early this morning, but if so not last very long. Timing and category of showers and storms late today will be variable. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H M H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M L AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms into Tuesday. IFR possible in thunderstorms Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.