Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231555 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1049 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS. CHRISTMAS DAY STARTS COLD...CLOUDY...AND WINDY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1045 AM UPDATE. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR/SAT AND HI RES MODELS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WILL QUICKLY INCREASE POPS AROUND 00Z AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AND WEST OF THE OH RIVER. AFTER THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...CWA WILL BE LEFT IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AS BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH. WE THEN LOWER POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES SOME DRYING WITH LARGER SCALE WAA. ALONG AND WEST THE OH RIVER...LEFT HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN REGION NORTH OF WHERE SFC LOW TO FORM...WHERE SOME UPWARD FORCING EXISTS. POPS THEN RAMP UPWARDS TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...AND INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS WILL AS MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NAM AND SREF ARE SLOWER LIFTING THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION...THINK THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SIDE. MODELS THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN OHIO. NAM SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SERIOUS MOMENTUM TRANSFER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MARGINAL FOR AUTO CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS WILL EXIST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CHRISTMAS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE A WELCOME RETURN WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY 00Z...MODELS DIVERGE WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR POPS AS THAT SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ECMWF. SOME WAVINESS AROUND THE TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY MIX AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW TWEAKS. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 16Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM SECTOR AND WAA...AS SFC LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CIG AND VSBY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AOA VFR FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FALL. SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND PUSHES A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...SPREADING TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FIGURED MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AFTER 03Z. MOUNTAINS SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z. KEPT MENTION OF SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SFC GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY IF DISTURBANCE IS FASTER. IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NT INTO WED. IFR IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/LS NEAR TERM...KMC/JMV SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...KMC/JMV

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