Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
679 FXUS61 KRLX 191956 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 256 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system late Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized system drifts this way for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, BUT A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT, WITH MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ALSO VARYING. AM LEANING TOWARD THE STRATUS DECK ERODING ON THE EDGES, BUT REMAINING IN PLACE AND REBUILDING TONIGHT. THIS ALSO EFFECTS LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FOG FORMATION. IF CLOUDS DO ERODE, EXPECT LOWER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FOG. IN EITHER CASE, FOG OR STRATUS WILL BURN OFF ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH CIRRUS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday... Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. Improving conditions on Wednesday. No cold air behind this system, so expect the very warm air to hold. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM Sunday... The very warm pattern to end the work week. showers and perhaps a few storms may fire along a developing warm front Thursday. Temps may soar well into the 70s on Friday in the warm sector, ahead of a potent cold front set to cross Friday night. I have continued the idea of thunder with the front. A significant cool down is expected over the weekend with high pressure building overhead, though still running above normal in the temperature department. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, BUT A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION, CREATING A STRATUS DECK. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT, WITH MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ALSO VARYING. AM LEANING TOWARD THE STRATUS DECK ERODING ON THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REMAINING IN PLACE AND REBUILDING TONIGHT. THIS ALSO EFFECTS FOG FORMATION. IF CLOUDS DO ERODE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. IN EITHER CASE, FOG OR STRATUS WILL BURN OFF ON MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS TONIGHT COULD BE EITHER STRATUS OR DENSE FOG. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H L M M M M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.