Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301010 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 510 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO 40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT MENTIONING IN THE HWO. WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN LOWLANDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ038-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JW

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