Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 131732 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 132 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT...ABOUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 17Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME 10-20KT WINDS TO MARK ITS POSITION. DO HAVE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO LIFT/SCATTER. INCLUDED SOME DRIZZLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START...AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT WITH COOL TEMPS AND WARM RIVERS THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME RETURN MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA. INCLUDED MORE CLOUDS THERE...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LAST COOL SPELL...THE MET WAS THE OVERALL WINNER...SO BLENDED TOWARD THE MET ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF/CMC/NAM MODELS SHOW AN H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA INTO SOUTHEAST OH BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ADJUSTED CHANCE POPS ACCORDING TO NAM SOLUTION. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WEAK FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PATTERN REMAINS COOLER IN NATURE WITH EARLY FALL TYPE WEATHER PREVAILING. IN THE END...USED WPC HEAVILY AS GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND HAVE A 7 DAY FORECAST IN TOTAL WITH NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GRIDS IN ANY DAY. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A BRIEF NW GUST TO 10-20 KTS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW CIGS BEGINNING TO SCATTER/LIFT. INCLUDED SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT. DESPITE DRIER AIR...THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...AND NAM SOUNDINGS EVEN TRYING TO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING AROUND TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE IMPACT FOG FORECAST. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TO IMPROVING CIGS MAY VARY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M M L M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.