Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220628 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 228 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IT WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTH BREEZE...BUT REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... -SHRA ACROSS N KY AND E OH WILL SLIDE E INTO WV BY 09Z BEFORE EXITING THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THOUGH AS MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING OUT OF A HIGH DECK. SHRA BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS MORNING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THIS AS IT CROSSES TODAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS POST FRONTAL THOUGH. NONETHELESS...CAA THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW SOME MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KEKN AND PERHAPS EVEN KCKB. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF NW...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE N WV LOWLANDS AND THE N MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TRY TO SLACKEN LATE ACROSS NE KY/S WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN QUESTION THIS EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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