Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210548 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 148 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. COLD FRONT INITIALLY TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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130 AM UPDATE... VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO ONGOING POPS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PESKY SHOWER OVER THE KENTUCKY COUNTIES THAT WON/T GIVE UP. ALSO NUDGED OVERNIGHT MINS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO MOST LOCATIONS PER CURRENT DEWPOINTS. STILL...ALL IN ALL...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPDATE... FIGURE THE FOG POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED GIVEN THE RISE IN DEWPOINTS. WILL BE AWAITING SOME CLEARING TO REALLY GET THINGS GOING...WHICH MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS OVER THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN THE RECENT WEAK CONVECTION. ALSO RAISED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AREA WIDE 1-3 DEGREES GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER S/W DISTURBANCE TO FOLLOW. THIS ONE NOT AS POTENT AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. WITH SOME HEATING AND INITIAL SUN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THINK THIS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE STOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLIDES INTO THIS AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE MODELS. ANY MID LVL CAP SHOULD BE NIXED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES. ALSO SOME CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM SSE FLOW SHOULD HELP AS WELL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THUS...HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE C AND ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCHC ELSEWHERE AND ROLLING WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE GRIDS. ALSO HAVE THUNDER IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...GIVEN BUILDING INSTABILITY PER MODELS. EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY GO POP FREE. EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXING...HIT THE DENSE FOG HARDER IN THE GRIDS. SOME LOW STRATUS EXPECTED ON THE E SLOPES. FOR MONDAY...KEEP POPS ALONG AND E OF I79 AND ON THE LOW SIDE. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRYS OUT WITH MID LEVEL CAP SHOWING UP WHICH SHOULD KEEP W ZONES DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH NO TRIGGER MECHANISM. IT WILL BE HEATING UP WITH HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIN AFTERNOON CAPE PROFILES SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. YET...LATE IN THE DAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS ROCKETS THE SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS VARY ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A WATER CONCERN. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS WITH IT...BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL IT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. THINGS DRY OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... VIRTUALLY ALL PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND ONE LONE SHOWER OVER BOYD COUNTY KY. EXPECT THIS LIGHT SHOWER TO REMAIN WEST OF THE HTS TERMINAL AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CLOUDS FROM THIS HOWEVER MAY CAUSE HIGHLY VARIABLE VIS/LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS THERE AT HTS UNTIL THE NEAR- DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HITTING THE IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS HARD. WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A HIT/MISS SCENARIO REGARDING VIS/LOW STRATUS AS PERIODIC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS RIDE OVERHEAD AS WELL...BUT DO AGREE WITH PREV FCST THAT EVENTUALLY MANY OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS BY THE 10Z-12Z TIME FRAME. EARLY MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY AND A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR MAINLY AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO MATERIALIZE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE...DENSITY...AND TIMING MAY VARY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H M H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/JW NEAR TERM...50/30/26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...50

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