Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 091925 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 225 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Sfc obs, satellite and radar images show flurries and light snow showers across the area. It is evident that the available low level moisture comes from the Great Lakes region. Forecast on track. No changes necessary. Under northwest flow, upslope snow will continue mainly over the northeast mountains. High pressure builds in Saturday to bring drier but below freezing temperatures for highs on Saturday. Used the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Friday... Continued cold under high pressure through Sunday. A system approaches Sunday increasing temps and precipitation chances. Cold air may linger especially over SE Ohio before temps warm above freezing. So may see some light fzra there Sunday evening and into early Monday. Strong 850mb flow should scour out any remaining cold air changing precip to all rain by Monday morning. Models in fairly good agreement with this system though minor differences in timing could drastically change forecast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Radar and satellite images show low level moisture from the Great Lakes region moving southeast into our area. Models suggest light snow showers will continue through 22Z lowlands, through 03Z higher elevations. Therefore, expect VFR conditions becoming MVFR/IFR along any snow shower. Abundant low level moisture could keep flurries going through Saturday morning mainly northeast mountains. Sfc high pressure builds over the OH valley Saturday bringing colder and clear conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary through tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M L M H M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H L M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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