Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170829 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 329 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm frontal boundary lifts through early this morning. Cold front Tuesday night. Another system for the end of this week and yet another system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1245 AM Tuesday... Several areas of precipitation expected through the near term as a warm front moves through early this morning, followed by a cold front tonight. Relied fairly heavily on the HRRR and 4k NAM to time these areas of precipitation and sharpen the gradients between areas of precip. These models line up decently with the current radar picture. This includes reducing POPs this afternoon across the southern coal fields. Did still include some isolated thunder chances today...transitioning across the western and then southern CWA. In the wake of the warm front today, temperatures will be unseasonably warm with 60s for most locations across the lowlands. As the cold front crosses to the east late this evening and tonight, temperatures will begin to fall. However lows tonight should remain well above normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Weak cold lobe overhead on Wednesday may bring a few snow showers to the mountains otherwise light rain elsewhere. In between systems Thursday while still quite mild. A warm southern system drifts north on Friday bringing another round of rain with another half to inch of rainfall expected. Still no snow. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... In between systems on Saturday, next system approaches from the southwest and slides through on Sunday lingering into Monday. Surprisingly, there is fairly good model agreement this far out, so went a little more aggressive with PoPs on Sunday night into Monday. Still a little concerned with the persistent rainfall amounts, but so far have escaped flooding as breaks have been sufficient enough to flush out each systems rainfall before the next arrives. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1250 AM Tuesday... Messy aviation forecast through today, with areas of dense fog in place as of the very early morning hours. As showers increase early this morning with passing warm front, densest fog should dissipate, but fairly low confidence on just when this will occur. Behind the warm front, southerly winds will be in place from the pre-dawn through today, which should also help to keep dense fog at bay by sunrise. As a cold front approaches from the west, have another round of showers crossing. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, but not high enough confidence to include in any TAFs. VFR ceilings expected for much of today, with clouds lowering to MVFR along and behind the cold front late this evening and tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of areas of showers may vary, along with category changes. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 01/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H L M M H H L M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L M M L L M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY L L M L M L L M M M M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible Tuesday night in lingering low stratus through Wednesday. IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.