Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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440 FXUS61 KRLX 061832 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 232 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW EXITS TONIGHT. WARM FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. COLD FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT THEN A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... ATMOSPHERE IS DOMINATED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW ROTATING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPS THE COLD CORE IN PLACE. 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES NEARING 9C/KM WILL PREVAIL DURING PEAK HEATING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND IN THE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE QUICK MOVING WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS EARLY SATURDAY WITH QUICK ADVECTION OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE SUITABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SPC HAS UPPED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TO SLIGHT OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR DAY 2...A TREND THAT HAS BEEN UPWARDS FOR THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR PRIMARILY WIND...BUT NOT DISCOUNTING HAIL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODELS AGREE ON A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS PERIOD...AS ONE UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE UPPER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH INITIALLY DRIVES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...THERE IS THE TYPICAL TIMING AND QPF DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. WILL FOCUS ON THE TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO DEPICT DETAILS. ACCEPTING THIS FORECAST APPROACH...WILL HAVE A COOL FRONT WITH UPPER SYSTEM NUMBER ONE PUSHING SOUTH WITH AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. SUNDAY WILL BE THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO OUR SOUTH. WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO DRIVES THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. OTHER THAN A MINOR COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST DAY THIS PERIOD WILL SUNDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. FINALLY...ABOUT HAZARDS. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WOULD BE WATER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT RAINS AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUNDS. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...BUT DESERVES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR SYSTEM NUMBER ONE. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS. T
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY...AND COVERING WESTERN LOWLAND TERMINALS IN VCSH. NORTHEASTERN ZONES HAVE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL...AND HAVE SHRA WITH VCTS/CB FOR CKB/EKN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOT HE WEST...EKN WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 1-2KFT CEILING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN. NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST 20-25KTS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR AS NOTED IN THE TAFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY GET BRIEF IFR IN ONSET OF SHOWERS IF THEY HIT TAF SITES. MAY NEED TO ADD SHRA TEMPOS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L L M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...26

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