Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221017 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 609 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EXPECT TODAY TO BE THE SECOND OF OUR 2 DAY DOG DAY PATTERN. NO BIG CHANGES. FOG IS LESS THIS MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES IN MANY SPOTS ARE 1 TO 3 DEGREES MILDER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. BUT LIKE MONDAY MORNING...JUST AS MUCH FOG IN OHIO AS WEST VIRGINIA. THAT WEAK WIND FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...WITH THE WARM STABLE LAYER AT 10 TO 15 THSD FT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE POP FOR MOUNTAIN THERMALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. 700 MB FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO WEAK WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY...SO NOT FIGURING ON CELLS COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. ALSO...WITH UPPER WINDS STARTING TO HAVE A WEST TO EAST COMPONENT...SOME HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT MAY BE NOTICED AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A DEGREE OR SO HOTTER THAN MONDAY. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHEAST OHIO MAY BE THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT. STILL LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW. WILL NOT PLAY UP ANY THICK FOG LATE TONIGHT...MAY BE SOME IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...DEPENDING ON LEFTOVER CLOUDS. NOT FIGURING ON ANY THICK FOG OVER THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. DESPITE THE FASTER FRONTAL TIMING...STILL NO POP ABOVE 14 PCT INTO SE OHIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... VARIOUS SHORT-TERM NWP COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE QUICKER HANDLING AND PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR AREA WED/THU. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NW OHIO AT 12Z WED AND SHOULD BE NEARING PERRY COUNTY AROUND 21Z WED. AS SUCH...SPED UP THE PROGRESSION OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY THE 19Z-20Z TIME FRAME. OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY ABOUT 20KTS SHEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SBCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG AND MLCAPE AROUND 1200-1300J/KG PRODUCING EL/S OF 40-42KFT...AND HALFWAY DECENT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES FOR OUR REGION...IT/S POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD...BUT LARGE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH MAX TEMPS FROM PREV FCST FOR MOST THE WV/VA ZONES BUT DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN JUST A TICK ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF DENSE CLOUD COVER. STILL EXPECTING UPPER 80S AND A FEW 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWLANDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD BECOMING LOCATED NEAR THE I79 CORRIDOR BTWN 00Z THU AND 03Z THU...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z - 12Z THU. HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OHIO BY 06Z THU WITH LIKELY POPS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NO PUBLIC POPS NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO BY 12Z THU. ALSO ENDED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ITSELF. WITH THE QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...LOWERED MINS JUST A BIT OVERALL...BUT PARTICULARLY OVER THE NW ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S BY THE 09Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME. MIGHT ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15KTS OR SO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS BTWN 12Z-18Z THU WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ELSEWHERE...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON SKY COVER...CODED UP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LOWLANDS BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD MAY REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. ENDED ALL PUBLIC POPS BY 03Z FRI WITH CUMULUS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT BUT HANGING ON LONGER OF COURSE IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. LOWERED MINS BY A GOOD 4-6 DEGREES PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS BY EARLY FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... POPULATED GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. 5H TROUGH SLIDES EAST...WHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE AND AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...WITH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PREDAWN FOG WAS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS 24 HOURS AGO OR FORECAST FOR THIS PREDAWN. THOUGH...LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL LURKING ON THE EASTERN SLOPES THOUGH AT DAWN...INCLUDING THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY. SO SOME CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT INTO 14Z THERE...BEFORE LIFTING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SLOW MOVING CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AGAIN TODAY...FIRST PROBABLY FORMING 16Z TO 19Z. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO VEER TO WEST LATE TODAY...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CONVECTION IN CKB TO CRW TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW VCNTY AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN OVER MOUNTAINS NEAR CONVECTION...OTHERWISE CLOUDS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED AFTER 15Z. SOME HAZE ALOFT LIKELY TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING FLOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ONLY FIGURING ON DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACHING MVFR IN FOG BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOLDING OFF SHOWERS INTO SE OHIO UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT LIKELY INCREASING THERE NEAR 12Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ONLY ISOLATED RATHER THAN SCATTERED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SECONDLY...IFR POSSIBLE LATER WITH POST FRONTAL CEILINGS ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .EQUIPMENT... PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS WILL BE LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM TODAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/50 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...KTB EQUIPMENT...KTB

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