Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290753 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 353 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings warmer and more humid southwest flow today through Saturday. Cold front approaches Saturday and becomes stationary just north of the area through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM Thursday... Surface high pressure remains anchored off of the middle Atlantic coast this period. This brings a low level south to southwest flow of warmer and more humid air, bringing the main jump in surface dew points first thing this morning, as values climb from the 50s to the 60s. This introduces instability by this afternoon with up to 1/5 kj/kg skinny CAPE west of the Ohio River and up to about 1 kj//kg east of the Ohio River. 0-6 km bulk shear only reaches 25 although the 0-8 km bulk shear is progged to approach 40 kts. Upper level short wave trough associated with the convective complex over the midwest early this morning rides north of the area this afternoon, although corfidi vectors do suggest a right turn, which would bring convection closer to the forecast area from the north. With little to no forcing otherwise, and the mid levels remaining dry, opted to leave the chance for thunder out of the forecast for today. An upper level short wave ridge crosses tonight, in the wake of the aforementioned trough, keeping the weather dry. The south to southwest flow, progged to 25 kts above the boundary layer as is the case this morning per VAD, will again prevent fog from forming tonight. Blended guidance and previous forecast looked good for the higher temperatures and dew points on the way in. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... Southwest flow with a high pressure to the east and south will result in mostly clear Friday morning. Then, models suggest unstable conditions with sfc CAPE exceeding 1500 J/Kg, moisture with pwats around 1.75 inches and weak deep layered shear. Expect afternoon convection with these parameters chance of showers lowlands and likely higher elevations, some showers with heavy rain possible. A cold front approaches slowly from the west Saturday. Models show higher afternoon CAPE, deep layered shear and pwats around 1.75 inches. Expect better chances for showers and storms as the front becomes stationary just north of the area through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday... Weather conditions remain unsettled as the stationary front weakens north of the area under weak flow. Otherwise, high pressure emerges from the south to take control of the weather conditions through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 AM Thursday... VFR weather in light southwest flow with high pressure anchored off of the middle Atlantic coast. There will be a patchy, high stratocu deck Thursday afternoon and night, and high clouds coming off convective complexes upstream. Strengthening southwest flow aloft overnight will prevent fog formation overnight and Thursday night, but did carry a TEMPO for MVFR at EKN overnight as they may remain decoupled. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR in TEMPO group for EKN overnight may not happen. If it were to form and actually go IFR, that would be rather brief given less than 30 min of IFR Wednesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 06/29/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM

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