Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241953 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 253 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. A cold front crosses Saturday with limited moisture. Cooler Sunday. Milder through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... A broad high pressure will continue to build east into the OH Valley and WV through early Saturday. Then, clouds and showers will increase ahead of an approaching front. Moisture associated with this front is limited. Therefore, expect light rain showers mainly across the northern portions of southeast OH and northern portions of WV on Saturday. Otherwise, especially the southern sections will remain dry with plenty of clouds. Models show different solutions with the limited moisture. Only the NAM brings light QPF while the rest of high resolution models are dry with this front. Southerly winds should keep hilltops and ridges a bit warmer, but low spots may decouple before the clouds arrive. Went with the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Friday... A mainly-dry cold front passes through the region during the day Saturday, with deep northwesterly flow providing strong cold air advection Saturday night. Moisture near the front itself is scarce, however low-level moisture from the Great Lakes, cold air advection processes, and upsloping will continue precip chances. Expect scattered rain showers in the northern WV mountains with a brief switch to mixed precip and possible light snow during the pre- dawn hours of Sunday, tapering entirely by mid-morning. High pressure quickly builds from the southwest Sunday, shifting to the Piedmont region by late Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday Southwesterly flow gradually creeps mild, above-average temperatures back into the region through mid-week. Models agree at this point on a short-wave trough moving through late in the week with rain showers, however timing discrepancies are abound so went with a general blend of PoPs with cooler temperatures on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1220 PM Friday... Widespread VFR conditions expected through the period. High pressure will remain in control through tonight. Clouds will be on the increase and a low chance for rain showers is possible across the northern sites as a weak system approaches from the west. Southwesterly flow becomes more southerly tonight. Winds will be calm where the atmosphere decouples. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...ARJ

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