Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050138 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 938 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WE HAVE ANALYZED WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OLD FRONT FROM NEAR IAD TO SOUTH OF EKN TO CRW TO HTS AND ACROSS NRN KY AT 01Z. WITH THAT OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEAVING A NORTH/SOUTH DEW POINT GRADIENT RIGHT THROUGH OUR CWA...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE STILL 1000 TO 1500 IN HTS- CRW CORRIDOR...WILL LEAVE 20-40 POPS IN LONGER FROM EKN TO CRW TO HTS ON SOUTH LONGER TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW. WITH SOME HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS CREEPING UP...WILL INCH UP THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN WV AND SOUTH. DRIEST AIR REMAINS FROM ATHENS ON NORTH IN SE OHIO. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BIG STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WITH IT. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH TRACK WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE. FELT BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO STAY CLOSE TO ESEMBLES AND WPC WHICH TRACKS THE LOW GENERALLY OVER THE REGION LATER THU AND INTO THU NIGHT. 3 AND 6 HR FFG IS REALLY HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 3 INCHES IN NE KY TO 2.25 OVER N WV. WITH THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH FFG...WILL FORGO ANY MENTION IN HWO LET ALONE ANY WATCH ISSUANCE. SYSTEM PULLS OUT EARLY FRIDAY WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AMID A RELATIVELY WNW FLOW ALOFT. PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER REAMPLIFICATION OF MEAN TROF. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL ADD A BIT MORE FOG AT HTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LONE SHOWER THAT DAMPENDED THE VCNTY AROUND 23Z TUESDAY. ALSO THOUGHT THE DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WOULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG...SO LOWERED THE VSBY AT ELKINS. THOUGHT DEW POINT SPREAD AT 23Z WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO NOT GO AS THICK ON THE FOG AT KPKB BEFORE DAWN. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS S OF CRW...SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z. LAYERED CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT BKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FCST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/05/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/30 NEAR TERM...JSH/KTB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JS/30 AVIATION...JSH/KTB

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