Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 281925 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 225 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEEKEND. COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY...WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. ALREADY THE COLD ADVECTION IS WANING WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE EAST DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY BY EVENING. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION STRATUS WILL BE RAPIDLY REPLACED BY WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER...SOME DRIER AIR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SCATTERER OUT THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...MINS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE COLD...IN THE 20S. FOR SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THIS...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AND DEPTH LIMITED BY A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL JET. THUS...WHILE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH...THE MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW TO INCLUDE POPS DESPITE THE MODELS TRYING TO SQUEEZE MEAGER QPF IN THE WEST. SO WILL GO DRY AND BREEZY SATURDAY...AND MUCH MILDER DESPITE THE CLOUD INCREASE. LOOKS FOR HIGH GETTING INTO THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD...WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCOMING. THIS LAYER OF MOISTURE IS VERY THIN...ONLY UP TO ABOUT 850-800MB WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH THIS EITHER...SO HARD TO GO VERY HIGH ON THE POPS. STILL ENVISIONING A LOW STRATUS DECK WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THINGS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THOUGH MONDAY. HAVE MUCH HIGHER POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE THAT EXPECT ALL RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MOS INTO HIGHS WITH A NON DIURNAL TREND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STAYED CLOSE TO THE HPC FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS. THIS HAS A COLD FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOW. HPC HAS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS ALONG AND WEST OF A CRW-CKB LINE. EAST OF A CRW-CKB LINE...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TIL 21Z...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWERING TO IFR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY 22Z. AFTER 00Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... LOWERING CEILINGS TO AROUND 5000 FEET WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH ESPECIALLY WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS IN MOUNTAINS MAY VARY 1 TO 2 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.