Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260701 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 301 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through today. Strong cold front may produce severe storms Thursday. Heavy rain possible especially north Thursday night into Friday. High pressure for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Another nice day on tap for the region as High pressure remains in control. We`ll start the day with patches of low clouds and fog, then transition to mostly sunny skies with just some high cirrus from storms over the northern plains. It will be warmer and more humid than yesterday with both high temperatures and dew point temperatures generally 3 to 6 degrees warmer than Tuesday. Cloud cover will start to increase tonight as high pressure slides off the east coast and the next low pressure system starts to approach from the west. As a result, expect considerably less radiational cooling overnight tonight which will cut down on the localized fog and low cloud development. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Although there are differences in the specifics, models are in very good agreement signaling an unseasonably strong low pressure system and attending strong cold front dropping southeast across the area for the later part of the work week. This is in response to the western upper ridge building, allowing for a vigorous upper low to drop southeast across the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic states by Friday. Dry high pressure will rapidly give way Wednesday night and Thursday to an increasingly moist and unstable airmass feeding northward ahead of the cold front. All the ingredients are there for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially Thursday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Behind the front, an unusually cooler Canadian airmass moves in during Friday, but upper dynamics and wraparound moisture from the upper low will keep showers and storms going Thurday night and much of Friday, especially in the north. Because of this, given the recent heavy rains, flooding is also possible across the north Thursday night into friday. So look for a dramatic weather change from Thursday to Friday from very warm and humid to much cooler and damp. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 PM Tuesday... The aforementioned upper low and wraparound rains lift out early Saturday, with dry Canadian high pressure quickly taking firm hold over the region for the weekend. Unusually dry air will now be the rule for this time of year, with a slow warming under summer time sunshine. Still, temperatures for the weekend will be below normal, especially at night with the drier air. Early next week, although some heat and humidity will return as high pressure moves east, dry weather will still hold. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions will prevail over most parts, except along river valleys where dense fog is expected. IFR/LIFR visibilities in fog starting at most sites between now and 10Z with the exception of BKW that should stay VFR. Any fog or low stratus will lift and dissipate after sunrise. Once that happens, VFR conditions should remain through the forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog this morning could vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions with thunderstorms likely Thursday into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ

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