Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291800 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON. STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT. SCATTERED UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A W-E AXIS. WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG WINNING OUT INITIALLY. WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU AGAIN WED. MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE RETURNS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK. USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z. THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER. HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN. THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL MORNING TO MIX OUT. WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE ALLOWED TO FIRE UP. LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON WED. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...TRM/26

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