Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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776 FXUS61 KRLX 250746 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 246 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Turning colder in the wake of the cold front. A couple systems next week with precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Saturday... Cold front is knocking on the doorstep of the far western edge of the CWA. Convective activity still ongoing with slowed eastward progression across the Ohio River. Lightning counts have diminished overall, but also not really getting any warming on the IR satellite imagery. Following the HRRR for the timing which has demonstrated some pretty good accuracy this morning in that respect. For the climate summary upcoming today, max temperatures have likely already been hit at midnight, and with the rain and subsequent cold front, non diurnal temperature curve was necessary for the daytime period. Cold air advection will be occurring, and will see the leftover slight chance POPs transition to light snow for the northeast highlands heading into the tonight period. Snowfall amounts are generally on the superficial side and relegated to the ridges. Gusty winds expected in the wake of the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday... Cold air advection on W/NW flow will bring the chance for upslope snow showers across the mountains through early Sunday morning. Moisture is limited so accumulations will be very light with generally less than an inch. High pressure builds over the area on Sunday and although we remain dry it will be cool relatively speaking. High pressure should hold through most of the day Monday, however a southern stream system will approach Monday evening and showers enter SW West Virginia by 00Z Tuesday out ahead of a warm front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 335 PM Friday... Zonal flow aloft will make for a progressive and active pattern next week. Our first system brings showers Monday night into Tuesday. The next system will arrive mid week as low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes drag a cold front through the region. Behind this colder air arrives again on NW flow and this will bring a chance for snow showers across the mountains towards the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 PM Friday... Line of convection now near the HTS-PKB corridor and should affect all of the terminals by 12Z this morning. Characteristics are heavy rain and wind gusts in excess of 40kts for the most part with half inch hail possible as well. Low level flow off the surface increases to around 50-60kts up towards the 5kft level. Cold front still lingers back towards ZZV and LHQ. Winds will gust ahead of the front even without convection, and behind the front as well with winds veering to a more west northwesterly direction heading into Saturday. As far as restrictions go, IFR visibilities likely at the onset of convection wth mainly MVFR ceilings. Beyond the frontal passage, cold air advection brings ceilings back in, deteriorating to MVFR after 20Z Saturday, especially in the mountains. Light snow will develop on the back end of the forecast in the EKN area with MVFR visibilities developing after 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection/storms to vary. Wind gust extremes to vary in convection/storms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26

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