Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290722 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 222 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SLIPS SLOWLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN DURING THIS TIME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. 700 PM UPDATE... FRONT SLIPPED THROUGH BKW JUST BEFORE 7 PM. ADDED DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FCST OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. PREV DISCN... A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ECHOES SHOW HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO KCKB. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES ON TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST AN ELONGATED WAVE NOTICEABLE IN H500 VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MOVE ALOFT TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SIMILAR WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR AS SEEN BY H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING MINUS EIGHT BY 18 TUESDAY UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTING A NON DIURNAL TREND. WENT WITH NEAR STEADY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CAA CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 1000 FEET WITH NO INVERSION. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S LOWLANDS...AND INTO THE SINGLY DIGITS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BOTH NIGHTS TUESDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF MOS AND NAM GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING POPS. HAVE POPS MAXING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SLOWED DOWN OVERALL PROGRESSION JUST A LITTLE BASED MAINLY ON THE GFS. RECENTLY THE ECMWF HAD BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS NOT USED. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOST OF THE AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NW...WITH PKB UP TO MVFR TO START THE TAF. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FURTHER THERE OVERNIGHT BUT ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF IFR FOG ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND...MAINLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER. THAT AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS...ALSO MAINLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BRING MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT ON MON FROM NW TO SE...WITH THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAINING THE WORST FLYING CONDITIONS...NIT GETTING BETTER THAN MVFR THROUGH 00Z TUE. LIGHT N SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFT TO N ON MON AS THE FRONT ALOFT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR VIS/CIGS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. PKB MAY GET DENSE FOG IF IT CLEARS THERE BEFORE DAWN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MON NT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...TRM/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

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