-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
576
FXUS61 KRLX 231111
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
711 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
One last hot day is on tap for today, before a cool front brings
cooler weather for the weekend. Another cold front will arrive
late Monday or Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 710 AM Friday...

Forecast on track...

As of 355 AM Friday...

One more hot day is on tap today, with surface high pressure
remaining in place, and upper level ridging just to the west.
This would be the tenth day with a high of 90 or better at CRW,
and it may be the last for awhile, as long as the cold front is
fast enough on Saturday.

The cold front will bring some cloud in from the north overnight
tonight, which may in turn interrupt the formation of valley fog,
or cause it to thin out early, across the northern tier of the
forecast area.

Inherited highs for today were above guidance but close to highs
yesterday, and were accepted with little change. Lows tonight
were close to guidance and a few ticks higher than this morning,
especially north ans west, and were again accepted with little
change.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Friday...

Relief from the hot weather is expected in the short term period. A
cold frontal boundary will slowly sag south across the region over
the weekend...with a slight chance for showers...mainly across
northern and central WV Saturday...with a slight chance across the
south on Sunday. Still some uncertainty as to how much precipitation
will actually be generated...and could have a scenario of just
clouds or sprinkles...but for now...elected to add in a slight
chance...which matches up well with surrounding offices. Somewhat
cooler and drier air is expected across northern zones on
Sunday...north of the front.

Focus then shifts to a strong cold front...and upper low that will
affect the region early next week. This will lead to showery...and
cooler weather next week...with temperatures finally close to
seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1100 AM Thursday...

It still appears that any true Autumn push of air will hold off
until late week. However there is some disagreement on timing and
evolution of the northern stream early next week. The 00Z Euro is
more bullish and progressive with the northern stream compared to
the GFS which is more blocky. Will hedge toward the GFS to
maintain continuity...keeping things warm and only a small chance
for a shra/tsra early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 710 AM Friday...

High pressure remains in control of the weather with mostly clear
sky and light wind. Dense river valley fog did not impact as many
TAF sites as previous sites, the banks staying just below the
runway plateau at CRW, for example. This may be an indication that
valley fog tonight may not impact many sites, and if it does, will
be brief. EKN is the exception, with a more persistent fog.

Otherwise expect a VFR day today, but a cold front approaching
from the north toward dawn Saturday will bring down somestratocu,
which may thin out the fog early.

Surface flow will be light and variable to light northwest today
and then calm tonight, all beneath light northwest flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog first hour this
morning and then again tonight..

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Morning dense valley fog is possible through Monday, and then
Monday night in showers and post-rain fog and stratus.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM