Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131147 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 747 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGES. ALSO INCREASE SKY THERE FOR CONSISTENCY. REST OF FORECAST REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 6 AM UPDATE. WIDELY SCATTERED NOCTURNAL MID LEVEL SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...ON THE NOSE OF AN 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THESE ARE TRACKING NORTHEAST...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF PERRY...VINTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL DECREASE TO JUST MAINLY THIN CIRRUS DURING THE DAY. REMAINDER OF AREA NO CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY. A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS AT THIS DISTANCE. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY... COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT 06Z MONDAY. MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY 15Z UPON MIXING THRU HEATING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXCEPT FOR CEILINGS AROUND 8000 FEET AND A BRIEF SHOWER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THRU 14Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THRU 06Z WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET RAPIDLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/ARJ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV

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