Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222312 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 712 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonably cool airmass gives way to warming temperatures by mid-week. Next cold front approaches by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 715 PM...Forecast appears to generally be on track. Latest guidance indicates overnight lows could be cooler than forecast. Dewpoint temperatures are currently lower than previous forecast. I know the dewpoint temperatures should recover some with the loss of daytime heating. However...will tweak overnight temperatures down a degree or so to reflect latest trends. Previous Discussion... As of 200 pm...No significant changes to forecast. Ridge continues to build in from the west. Afternoon cumulus on visible satellite will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies across the region tonight allowing for classic radiational cooling and resultant river valley fog on Tuesday morning. A slight nudge upward by a degree or so on max temps as indicated by latest MOS guidance for Tuesday. Otherwise no significant changes. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday... Benign weather will continue through the short term as upper ridging transitions across the northeast. Temperatures will slowly climb through the period with dew points rising above 70 F again on Thursday bring a return of the muggies and maybe even a scattered tstorm Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... A cold front approaches Friday increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on when the front arrives, so not much confidence in pinpointing a time, but for now, early Friday looks like the best bet. GFS starts to bring another front through early next week. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 715 PM... 00Z Tuesday thru 00Z Wednesday... Calm winds and clear skies overnight will result in river valley fog developing after 04Z. IFR visibility likely at all TAF sites except BKW. Conditions will rapidly improve after sunrise with VFR conditions expected after 14z Tuesday. Some scattered cumulus in the mountains during the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary early Tuesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Dense morning valley fog possible through mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MAC NEAR TERM...JSH/MAC SHORT TERM...JW/99 LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JSH/MAC

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