Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 222312
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
712 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
Dry and seasonably cool airmass gives way to warming temperatures by
mid-week. Next cold front approaches by the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 PM...Forecast appears to generally be on track.
Latest guidance indicates overnight lows could be cooler than
forecast. Dewpoint temperatures are currently lower than previous
forecast. I know the dewpoint temperatures should recover some
with the loss of daytime heating. However...will tweak
overnight temperatures down a degree or so to reflect latest
As of 200 pm...No significant changes to forecast.
Ridge continues to build in from the west. Afternoon cumulus on visible
satellite will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Clear
skies across the region tonight allowing for classic radiational
cooling and resultant river valley fog on Tuesday morning. A
slight nudge upward by a degree or so on max temps as indicated by
latest MOS guidance for Tuesday. Otherwise no significant
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday... Benign weather will continue through the
short term as upper ridging transitions across the northeast.
Temperatures will slowly climb through the period with dew points
rising above 70 F again on Thursday bring a return of the
muggies and maybe even a scattered tstorm Thursday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...
A cold front approaches Friday increasing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty on when the front arrives, so not much confidence in
pinpointing a time, but for now, early Friday looks like the best
bet. GFS starts to bring another front through early next week.
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 PM...
00Z Tuesday thru 00Z Wednesday...
Calm winds and clear skies overnight will result in river valley
fog developing after 04Z. IFR visibility likely at all TAF sites
except BKW. Conditions will rapidly improve after sunrise with VFR
conditions expected after 14z Tuesday. Some scattered cumulus in
the mountains during the afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary early Tuesday
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Dense morning valley fog possible through mid week.