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853
FXUS61 KRLX 182304
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
645 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper trough Saturday brings more showers to northern areas.
High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front possible mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 645 PM Friday...

Will update the forecast based on latest satellite and radar trends.


As of 235 PM Friday...

Showers are coming to end this afternoon with clearing from west
to east as cold front pushes through the region. Showers will
likely linger in the mountains through early this evening and
can`t rule at an isolated thunderstorms in the mountains as
well. Clearing skies tonight and this combined with the moist
ground will produce dense fog across the river valleys after
Midnight and into early Saturday morning. An upper level trough
will graze the Northern Half of the forecast area tomorrow and
have increased PoPs from late Saturday Morning through tomorrow
evening when the trough lifts to the Northeast. Not expecting
much in the way of precip with most of the abundant moisture
exiting the area today with the cold front.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

SFC High pressure takes control will tranquil weather Saturday night
through Tuesday. Therefore, expected periods of dry weather with
warm to hot afternoon temperatures Sunday and Monday.

Used temperatures from the blend of models.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

Models are in fairly agreement with a sfc low pressure system
that will develops over the Canadian prairies and then drops
into the Great Lakes for the middle of next week. This will
bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms especially
with an associated cold front. The cold front drops reaches the
OH River by early mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 645 PM Friday...

A cold front will exit eastward out of the mountains early this
evening. VFR conditions can be expected except for possibly in brief
showers along the front. Otherwise, skies will clear this evening.

Fog is a bit tricky tonight. Drier air moving in from the west and
some winds possibly stirring across the north may limit fog outside
of the mountain valleys. Dense valley fog is expected in the
mountains.

An upper level trough will move through on Saturday. While generally
VFR conditions will prevail, some brief restrictions in showers
and/or thunderstorms are possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog overnight
could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY