-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST
HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL
PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MTS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI.

OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF
A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE
THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL
MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE
AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE
FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT
MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F
FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS USUAL.

A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS
ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.

REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT
COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND
INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50