-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 152336
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
736 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
SUNDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
730PM UPDATE...ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PERRY COUNTY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MANY OBS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME...AND
REALLY EXPECT NOTHING OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE THIS EVENING. TWEAKED SKY
GRIDS ALSO TO REDUCE/SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...MADE NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MCV OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AT 17 UTC...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND
POSSIBLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IT STILL APPEARS MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING INTO
OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS AS WELL AS WPC 6-HR QPF GUIDANCE
ALL INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT THIS
THINKING...SO HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS. MAY EVEN INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH TO CATEGORICAL.

PREVIOUS MINT AND MAXT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SINKING SOUTH OF CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS SINKING SOUTH WITH IT...POSSIBLY
GETTING HUNG UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR A BIT MONDAY. WITH
SEVERAL UPPER RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS NEARLY AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN PLACEMENT...BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE/500MB VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY...SO
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP
FORECAST...CONTINUES TOO LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS SHOULD BE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST...SHOULD ONLY SEE
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP UP THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TO ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY AND INCLUDED CHANCE POPS WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP FOG COVERAGE AT BAY...ALTHOUGH
DEEP...SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG.
OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...MAINLY AFTER 12-15Z SUNDAY. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
GREATEST PERIOD OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 17-22Z
SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 06/16/13
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ
NEAR TERM...JSH/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL