Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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819 FXUS61 KRLX 211809 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday night and Thursday. Warm front Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... Low stratus will continue to gradually erode through the remainder of the afternoon. Attention turns to a more potent cold front to cross later this evening. Near term and hi res models continue to show a band of -shra with this front. Current thinking is this may be a bit overdone but will still give some nod to low pops across the northern lowlands and northern mountains. Across the high terrain this would be a few hours of -sn in the air. CAA ensues, lasting into Wednesday. Normally we would look for some CAA stratocu to form but models are really dry in the low levels. As such, expect abundant sunshine, though a bit chilly for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 450 AM Tuesday... A large high pressure system slides by to the northeast of the forecast area, making it from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to a position from off the middle Atlantic coast, ridging back into the southeastern states, Friday morning. Of arctic origin, while this high will bring a hard freeze Thursday morning, dew points will be much more conserved than temperatures, and Thursday afternoon in particular will bring very low humidity. A wave passing by to the southwest of the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday will bring mid and high cloud across roughly the better southwest half of the forcast area, but precipitation should stay to the southwest. Warm advection showers may affect roughly the northern half of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday, with the slight chance for some sort of wintry mix briefly across the northern mountains early Friday morning, if precipitation arrives before temperatures can climb high enough for rain. The area will reside in a southerly flow of increasingly warm and moist air Friday afternoon through Friday night, as high pressure drifts off the southeast coast. Temperatures close to central guidance with no major changes from previous. Preserved the idea of temperatures climbing toward dawn Friday in warm advection. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 450 AM Tuesday... This is increasingly looking to be an unsettled period. After a warm Saturday, low pressure drags a cold front into the area from the west Saturday afternoon and night. This is likely to push thunderstorms into the area during this time, before the front slows down. It gets left behind as a wavy west to east boundary across the area into early next week, with waves of low pressure riding east along it. Temperatures close to central guidance. While Saturday will be the warmest day, temperatures will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... Low stratus, primarily in the form of MVFR cigs, will gradually erode thru late afternoon with VFR conditions taking hold across northern and western sites. A cold front will cross in the 00 to 06Z time frame from northwest to southeast. There may be a brief shra across the northern sites with a period of MVFR postfrontal stratocu also possible across the northern sites. Drier air overwhelms the column Wednesday for abundant sunshine and VFR conditions dominant. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of IFR conditions Tuesday morning uncertain. Also, timing of improvement to VFR conditions uncertain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H H M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.