Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021741 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT RIVER VALLEY TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR AND WERE CLOSE TO CURRENT NUMBERS...SO ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. MOST OF THE FORCING REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A VORT MAX MEANDERS AROUND LIKE A LOST DOG...BUT NEVER COMES HOME TO WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN A GENERAL VOID WHERE DIURNALLY FORCED STORMS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO DENT THE RIDGE BY DAY 7/TUESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THE FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT FOR DAY 4/SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWS AND STORMS WITH MVFR...PSBL IFR...CONDITIONS...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WERE THE RIULE. EXPECT THESE STORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 02Z. CLEARING SKIES AND WARM RIVER WATERS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFT 09Z. EXPECT RIVER VALLEY SITES TO DETERIORATE FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR DURING THE 09-12Z PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL HEATING AND A MID-LEVL DISTURBANCE WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS WITH MVFR...PSBL IFR... CONDITIONS...AFT 15Z THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...FB/KTB AVIATION...JSH

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