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000
FXUS61 KRLX 201947
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
347 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure tonight. Weak disturbance Wednesday with a shower
possible north. Tropical moisture to bring showers and
thunderstorms to end the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM...

Tonight will be dominated by high pressure with dry conditions
and light flow. A weak upper disturbance and frontal system in
northwest flow aloft, will skirt the northern zones Wednesday.
There is a modest return flow ahead of this system and modest
instability across the north. The end result is that this system
will mainly affect the northern half of the area with clouds
late tonight and Wednesday, with just enough moisture,
instability and dynamics ahead of the front to bring a few
showers or a storm across the far north. However, nothing heavy
or widespread is expected as the front itself will get hung up
to our north. The central and south will just see some clouds
Wednesday, but also a good deal of sunshine will also be
present. Temperatures tonight will be down around 60 degrees
with dry air still in place. Temperatures Wednesday will range
from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Much of the
activity will diminish late Wednesday with the loss of heating
and with the disturbance moving out. Not expecting widespread or
dense fog for the most part tonight, given some increase in mid
or higher clouds and some flow above the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Tuesday...

A relatively weak upper level ripple may lead to some isolated
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but moisture will be
pretty limited.

Moisture quickly increases Friday as a leading slug of tropical
moisture and some upper level energy sheds off Cindy and gets
caught up in the overall synoptic flow, lifting NE out of the
Gulf ahead of the upper trough. This looks to move through the
southern and central Appalachians Thursday night and Friday. The
surface circulation of Cindy will still be in eastern TX at
this point.

This initial slug could definitely contain some heavy rainfall,
but after several dry days we should be able to handle a decent
amount of water. Still...cannot rule out isolated issues
starting to crop up.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Tuesday...

Quite a bit of uncertainty remains for the weekend. Models
continue to show a strong cold front pushing our way from the NW
Friday night into Saturday, with the remnants of Cindy
approaching from the SW. The timing on how all of this comes
together will have a very large impact in the weather we get out
of it. Models continue to show the potential for heavy
rainfall, but differ some on the location. While confidence is
low, any additional heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns.
Will continue mention in HWO for now.

The ECMWF shows a secondary cold front Sunday, the GFS is not
quite as robust with it, but opted to include some slight chance
to chance POPs with this as well. Cooler air settles in late
Sunday into Monday with below normal temperatures.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Dry high pressure with light to near calm winds tonight,
followed by a weak upper disturbance skirting across the north
Wednesday. Mainly mid clouds and a few showers will accompany
this system across the north Wednesday, while the central and
south will only see some mid-high clouds.

VFR conditions expected to prevail this period with clouds AOA
6000 feet Wednesday. Winds tonight will diminish to light
westerly early, and again westerly 6 to 12 KTS on Wednesday.
River valley fog will be shallow and scattered, mostly
affecting EKN with a brief period of IFR 09Z-12Z, and MVFR at
CRW 10Z-12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium with fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if
winds decouple more and clouds are delayed.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV