Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290843 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 442 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST FIRST THING THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST THIS PERIOD WITH A 5H TROUGH FOLLOWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NOT MUCH FLOW THERE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AND LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT UPSWING IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT MUCH DYNAMICS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH PRECIPITATION THOUGH. AS CAA TAKES PLACE WITH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN WE SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 60S IN THE LOWLANDS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS ALL SWINGING BACK TO A SOLN WHICH HAS FIRST WINTER STORM OF THIS EARLY SEASON IMPACTING THE AREA FRI NT AND SAT. THE NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH DRIVING THE EVENT WAS OVER NUNAVUT IN N CNTRL CANADA 00Z WED...WHILE THE SRN STREAM S/W WAS JUST CRASHING ASHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA. SO THESE FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER SAMPLED FOR THE MODEL RUNS. THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES E INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WHILE THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD. THE TWO SYSTEMS THEN MOVE SEWD IN TANDEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE TN VALLEY BY FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS DRY WEATHER THU WITH PATCHY CLOUD ON MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER THU. MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI...AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRI IN RESPONSE INITIALLY TO THE SRN STREAM S/W...AS THE NRN STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF WHILE DIGGING SWD THROUGH INDIANA. THE SRN STREAM S/W GENERATES A WARM WAVE OFF THE E COAST FRI...THEN A SECOND LOW CENTER FORMS CLOSER TO SHORE FRI NT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH ENDS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS COME 12Z SAT /NAM-GFS/ OR VA/SRN WV /CMC-ECMWF-UKMET/. THIS POSITIONING WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKS...ALONG WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP. EITHER WAY...THE CURRENT SOLN ENVELOP DICTATES SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER POPS FRI NT AND SAT. ALTHOUGH A WARM CORE NEAR AN INITIAL SFC LOW DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE WV MOUNTAINS...THE SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION OF THIS DIGGING...CLOSING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE E COAST STRONGLY SUGGESTS ROLLING WITH THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS WARRANTED GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAINING IN THE DETAILS. HAVE CUT BACK WWD SNOWFALL FRI NT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST SIX HOUR TIME STEP...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING 00Z SAT /MID 30S HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S LOWER TERRAIN. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW BY 06Z SAT. ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SAT WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...BRINGING TOTALS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...1 TO 2 FRI NT AND THEN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 ON SAT. THIS WARRANTS AN HWO MENTION FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS EARLY SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...MAINLY OF WV...COME SAT MORNING. THE SYSTEM THEN COILS UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WANING OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT NT...DEFINITELY A SLOWER WANING THAN PREVIOUS FCST ON ACCT OF A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM BEING DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NCEP SUITE. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ARE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HAVE FRONT NEAR KCKB-KBKW NEAR 06Z WITH LOCAL LIFR AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FRM CENTRAL WV TO POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN WAKE OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SLOWER IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COALFIELDS. WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CLOUDS FROM KCRW-KBKW TO KEKN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FRONT HANGS FOR A BIT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 12Z TO 15Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE IMPROVING POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY VARY. MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IN SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KMC

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