Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271534 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1134 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak east to west frontal boundary just to our north will move little. Several disturbances and copious moisture will bring heavy rainfall potential Thursday into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11 AM update. Adjusted clouds and pops this afternoon...more sunshine between rather disorganized afternoon thunderstorms... and storms most numerous in the south with the deeper moisture. Previous discussion... Any morning dense fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z. A dissipating frontal boundary remains across the northern portion of the area through this evening. The combination of this boundary, together with precipitable water from 1.5 to 2 inches and diurnal heating will be enough to produce showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Some storms could produce localized heavy downpours capable to produce localized water problems along their path. High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees lowlands, to the mid 70s higher elevations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Several waves, surface and aloft, will impact the forecast area through the end of the week. The first will already be arriving Thursday morning riding along a warm front. Models seem to be coming into better agreement with this now, but with some differences still in place capped POPs around 80 percent. That wave should move through Thursday and head on its way Thursday night and pull a cold front south. A weak upper level shortwave trough follows for Friday and have likely POPs with this. Weak height rises behind this wave for Friday night with just low chance POPs lingering. Next surface wave approaching for Saturday. Models having a bit harder time resolving this one, but both GFS and ECMWF show QPF max across the mountains, so included some likely POPs again for Saturday afternoon across eastern third of CWA. Only minimal changes made to temperatures. With lots of clouds, expecting warm nights with average to just below average daytime highs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across the region. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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15z Wednesday thru 12Z Thursday... Thru 02z...Any lingering MVFR ceilings becoming VFR sct-bkn 4000-6000 feet AGL by 17z. Thereafter...SCT showers and tstms developing but remaining rather disorganized. VFR conditions will prevail outside any strong storms. After 02z...initially sct-bkn 5000-7000 feet AGL with loss of convection...then increasing clouds from the southwest. Becoming ceilings 5000-7000 feet 07z-12Z with SCT showers redeveloping over the south by 12z. Overnight fog also redevelops after 06z tonight with localized IFR/LIFR river valley fog expected...especially if clouds are slower to increase. Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts in thunderstorms this afternoon. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site Wednesday afternoon. Fog potential tonight depends greatly on cloud coverage. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ/JMV

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