Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160537 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1237 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Drizzle, with cold front crossing overnight. High pressure crosses Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Thursday... Previous forecast on track. No changes necessary. As of 930 PM Wednesday... Speed up the exit of showers, but kept drizzle around most of the night along and east of the Ohio River. Updated temperatures based on current obs and trends, but no significant changes made. As of 1240 PM Wednesday... A band of showers will move across the area late this afternoon and this evening, followed by a cold front. Some of the meso models are showing that the band does not remain solid as it moves across the area, especially in the southern counties. Therefore, will run the highest pops in the northern counties. Due to only shallow moisture behind the front, will just run some drizzle. Can`t rule out some freezing drizzle in the highest elevations late tonight into Thursday, but don`t expect much in the way of accumulation and only on elevated surfaces.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... The period starts with surface high pressure and below average temperatures in place. Some lingering freezing drizzle/drizzle up in the mountains is possible, with just cold enough temperatures aloft suggesting actual snow flake formation before precipitation tapers entirely by midnight as LL moisture wanes. A ridge builds into the region with southerly flow turning more southwesterly by Friday night, ushering in the next system. Model disagreements are quite extensive on the location, timing, and coverage of this system... including the leading warm front late in this period. Shower activity will favor the northern counties along the warm front Friday night. Moisture availability is climatologically high with PWATS exceeding 1" near the warm front in model estimates, so may need to keep an eye on any sort of heavy rain should it train over our area. But, heaviest rain at this point is forecast to stay north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... As mentioned previously, agreement between long-term operational models is still poor, especially with timing (though improving). Still, should have modest clearing in the warm sector at some point Saturday as the warm front lifts northward. The GFS continues to be on the early side, bringing an organized convective line along the cold front Saturday afternoon and evening while the Euro lags the system from the upper level trough down with moderate stratiform rain and frontal passage Saturday night. Strong upper-level flow exceeding 100 kts, low/mid level flow exceeding 50 kts, and the possibility of heavy rain suggests widespread lowland gusts in the 20-30 kt and 30-40 kt gusts in the mountains are probable. Models agree on cold northwesterly flow after system exit, with CAA peaking Sunday afternoon into Monday. Upslope/CAA showers and widespread cloud cover are expected and favored in the higher elevations and toward the North where better LL moisture exists thanks to the warm Great Lakes/upslope influence. Ridging cuts off CAA/upslope by Monday with temperatures warming through Tuesday. The next system, again with extensive dynamic differences amongst models, comes through by mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Thursday... Satellite images show widespread low level stratus across the area. Sfc obs indicate VFR/LIFR ceilings at BKW and CKB while MVFR ceilings prevail at CRW, HTS, PKB and EKN. The flow will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Ceilings could deteriorate over areas under MVFR overnight. Periods of drizzle possible in low clouds. A gradual improvements can be expected tomorrow as clouds break up and lift. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of and height of LIFR ceilings could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 11/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H M BKW CONSISTENCY L H H M M L M L H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M H M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H L H M H H L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MC NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...ARJ

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