Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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201 FXUS61 KRLX 211911 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm into the beginning of next week. Upper trough moves overhead Sunday. Stronger upper low Sunday night and Monday, exiting Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 PM Saturday... Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today and through Sunday. Even with mid and upper level clouds overspreading the region we have still seen widespread temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Generally, most of the area will remain dry through tonight as short wave passes just to our east. However, model guidance is still uncertain with meso guidance bringing measurable precip across the entire CWA, while the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF keep QPF along the Eastern Mountains. Current thinking is that the decent mid level instability is making meso models overdo QPF amounts. Based on forecast soundings it is very dry below 10K feet so likely we will see some very light rain or sprinkles in the Ohio Valley and the Lowlands as most of the returns currently on Radar is falling as VIRGA. I have kept some slight chance PoP in the Lowlands, but expecting very little in the way of any rainfall. Low level moisture is a little more intact across the Eastern Mountains and have left chance PoP here, but again the bulk of the forcing is to our east and any measurable rainfall is likely to hug our border with Blacksburg`s CWA. Another stronger upper trough ahead of the closed upper low will lift over our region tomorrow and likely spread showers from south to north starting late in the morning. Guidance is in fairly good agreement with having this first wave through the area in the afternoon with a lull in the action before the more robust closed low arrives late tomorrow night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Looking at a significant, long duration rain maker through the short term with a deepening upper level low rotating northeastward from the deep south. Two distinct waves of energy will bring the rain. The first is an upper level trough oriented west to east, moving northward, and the second is the parent low. NAM showing strong low level frontogenesis Sunday night, and good upper level support in the form of Q vector convergence over the northeastern CWA. Right now, will handle the potential for flooding in the HWO, but high QPF amounts over the short term with good basin coverage could be problematic. All of this will occur in the warm sector of the surface frontal system associated with the upper low, so there is need to determine the efficacy of the dynamic cooling in terms of snow potential. Core of the upper low will need to be in close proximity to the CWA for snow to occur, which will primarily be in the highest elevations. Rain otherwise. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... System exits, pulling a colder airmass into the area, but only chances for snow will remain in the mountains. A brief recovery to the temperatures back above normal comes Wednesday, with the next cold front not far behind, and a wholesale airmass change heading for the end of the week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 PM Saturday... Upper level disturbance pushing into the region this afternoon and evening, but mostly spreading overcast mid and upper level clouds overhead. There is a low chance for a shower across the West Virginia Mountains this afternoon and evening as this system heads NE, but not enough confidence to put into BKW or EKN TAFs at this time. Most sites will remain VFR throughout the period, but thinking with the abundant low level moisture still in place that mountain valleys may see IFR fog develop again late tonight. Finally, at BKW ceilings may lower to IFR overnight with persistent moist southeasterly upslope flow. Ceilings will start to lower tomorrow morning everywhere with warm advection ahead of our next system. This system will bring scattered showers to the region but timing will be towards the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop tonight at EKN due to increased mid and upper level cloud cover. Showers this evening could bring lower ceilings to BKW than currently highlighted in the TAF. Timing of onset of precip and lower ceilings tomorrow may bring MVFR ceilings before 18Z Sunday for Southern Locations. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday with another system. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.