Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 012000 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 300 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure to end the work week. Weak upper trough late Sunday into Sunday night. Warm front Monday night Tuesday. Milder mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Finally a more winter type regime this period with west to northwest flow aloft. However, even with a west to northwest flow of colder air, and moist low levels, to prevail into Friday with lots of clouds, temperatures will only be near normal. Compared to a long stretch of above normal temperatures, this will feel more like winter. In this pattern, there is enough upslope component and moisture to squeeze out scattered mainly higher elevation snow showers in the northern WV mountains, but with little to no accumulation. There will be a weak upper impulse in the west to northwest flow coming across the area on Friday that will be watched for possibly a little more mountain snow activity, but for now, this does not look significant. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Thursday... Baroclinic zone over the southeast and weak trough aloft in the northern stream will remain separate entities going forward, so that will keep the heavier precipitation to the south of the CWA. Trough aloft will be a quick mover as well, making this a low end QPF event, generally in the Sunday night time frame. Southwest Virginia may see fringe influences from the southern system/stationary front, with a bit higher QPF for our two counties in that region. The rain could change to a rain snow mix or light snow as the POPs exit Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... Beyond Monday, another upper trough axis in the southern stream will lift into the lower Ohio Valley, so any drying during the day Monday will be short lived. The flow remains progressive, so this should be in and out with the low pressure center to the west bringing a warm front northward through the central Appalachians and middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures increase through mid week with isolated warm advection showers remaining in play through Thursday. Towards the end of the extended, expect the synoptic scale pattern to amplify with a vigorous cold front slated for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z Thursday thru 18Z Friday... As of 1245 PM Thursday... Til 00Z Friday... Lots of low level moisture will generally continue the clouds, but with some breaks over southern portions of the area this afternoon and evening. Look for general VFR ceilings, but occasional MVFR ceilings mainly north and especially above 2000 feet in the WV mountains. Also look for mainly northern mountain sprinkles/flurries that may locally create brief IFR conditions. West winds this afternoon 10 to 15 KTS with higher gusts, especially mountains. After 00Z Friday... Generally VFR ceilings becoming prevailing MVFR low lands north and east of a HTS-I16 line, with IFR above 2000 feet. West winds diminishing by 03Z to 5 to 10 KTS. After 12Z Friday... For the low lands, any MVFR ceilings improving to VFR ceiling 3500-4000 feet by around 15Z. In the mountains, improving to VFR ceilings below 2500 feet by 18Z. West winds 5 to 12 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M L M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M M L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in the higher mountain elevations through remainder of Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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