Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310006 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 806 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 745 PM UPDATE... TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS EVENING E OF OH RIVER PER LATEST HRRR/RUC RUNS. STILL APPEARS NE KY AND ESPECIALLY SE OH WILL BE IN THE CROSS-HAIRS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE OF THESE MAY PUSH THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN 09-12Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. WITH SOMEWHAT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AND PWATS CLIMBING OVER 2 INCHES...DOWNPOURS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND HOW EVERYTHING BEGINS TO EVOLVE BUT DO NO ANTICIPATE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OH ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR. NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS SE OH BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WHEN A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. AS SUCH...HAVE SOME MVFR SHRA IN KHTS/KPKB/KCRW TAF SITES WITH SOME PROB30 GROUPS INCORPORATED TO HANDLE TSRA POSSIBILITY. A BRIEF LULL LASTING UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES...WITH SHRA/TSRA CONT FOR SE OH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS GENERALLY NW OF OH RIVER BUT MAY AFFECT KHTS/KPKB. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 18Z WITH ALL TERMINALS CODED UP WITH MVFR CONVECTION WITH PROB30 IFR GROUPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR TWO. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/31/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...30

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