Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230221 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1021 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front approaches middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1020 PM Friday... Cirrus still lingering across the area, but expect this to shift south as the night progresses. As of 715 PM Friday... Freshened up the grids, though no major changes resulted. Pretty much a persistence forecast tonight with the fog...though it may be delayed an hour or two, depending on how much cirrus lingers this evening. As of 205 PM Friday... Surface and upper level ridging to the north continues the quite, but unseasonably warm weather, with dense valley fog once again forming overnight, and then burning off around mid morning. Opened up diurnal spread with guidance suggesting slightly lower lows tonight, and the MET higher for highs Saturday. Those MET values seemed high, but opted to go just below 90 across the lowlands. There should be less cumulus and cirrus around, and the morning inversion is progged to be more shallow, compared with this morning. This, with light downslope flow, should favor strong heating for late September, && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Friday... High pressure surface and aloft will remain in control during the short term period, with warm sunny days, above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and foggy mornings. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 220 PM Friday... High pressure will remain in control until Thursday, with an upper shortwave trough and surface cold front move through the area. At this time, precipitation coverage still looks to be minimal, along with QPF. Cooler/more fall like weather to round out the end of the extended. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 715 PM Friday... High pressure spells VFR conditions outside of VLIFR river and valley fog 07Z to 13Z tonight. Onset may be delayed an hour or so, depending on how much cirrus lingers this evening. The fog forecast is less certain at BKW, but fog there should be no worse than this morning. Surface flow will be light northeast by day and calm at night, while northeast flow aloft this afternoon becomes light east tonight, and remains light east on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cirrus may delay onset of dense fog longer than currently forecast. Brief IFR forecast at BKW may not occur. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30

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