Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 251749
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure through Wednesday. Strong cold front crosses
Thursday, and another possibly on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM Tuesday...
No changes to the forecast at the moment.
As of 250 AM Tuesday...
High pressure will be in control today today and overall it looks
like picture perfect weather. We will see plenty of sunshine, and
with the low dew points we will see a large diurnal swing.
Although we start out in the mid 30s in most areas, by this afternoon
we will recover back into the low 60s nearly everywhere. However,
it will be cooler and in the 50s across the far northern CWA and
in the Eastern West Virginia Mountain Counties. By late afternoon
we will also see an increase in mid to upper level clouds and
they will likely linger into tonight. This will make for low
temperatures a bit warmer for early tomorrow morning, so not
expecting as many areas of frost that we saw this morning.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...
A high pressure system moves east over the VA coast, allowing a
warm front to lift north Wednesday night. Mostly sunny skies will
be replaced by upper to mid level clouds as a strong cold front approaches.
Models show a weak CAPE, strong shear environment characterize
the state of the atmosphere Thursday. The cold front will bring
showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday.
Used a blend of models for temperature through the period.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...
Descent cold air advection behind Thursday`s cold front could
produce some lingering light precipitation or drizzle into
Another front arrives on Saturday, with limited moisture and
abundant deep layered shear and low CAPE. Light rain or drizzle
will linger into Sunday.
Used a blend of models for temperatures and PoPs through the
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 140 PM Tuesday...
Going with IFR fog or worse tonight only at EKN tonight, although
have slight confidence issues here given the LIFR fog late at CRW
and PKB last night. Also, EKN will get a mid deck of variable
clouds that may cause observations to bounce at that site.
Otherwise, VFR through the period with winds less than 10kts.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through today. Medium tonight.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to remove fog tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers Thursday.
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