Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 091742 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 142 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... CLEARED THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND UPPED THE POPS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF OUR CWA...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AS INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BECOME SHALLOW...DECREASING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PCPN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES ALOFT. EXPECTING DIURNAL LOW CUMULUS TODAY THAT MAY LOOK ROBUST AT TIMES...BUT VERY LIMITED IN THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS...OR A BRIEF STORM OR TWO...CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST... LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEAVES AREA UNDER GENERALLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING BULK OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA WHERE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. INTRODUCED SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...USING A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LEAVES SATURDAY AS A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HAVE SOME ROBUST CUMULUS FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL TO A BARE MINIMUM THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO...GOING WITH VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER 00Z...THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET TONIGHT. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS PRETTY HARD DESPITE THE LACK OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY FORECAST...SO WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS HERE. WITH THAT SAID...THE IFR/LIFR TIME FRAMES MAY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 HOURS FOR THE AFFECTED SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN BOUNCING OBSERVATIONS WITH TEMPOS NEEDED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M H M M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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