Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220704 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 304 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region this afternoon, then low pressure and unsettled conditions return Wednesday and onward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Monday... Satellite and radar images, and sfc obs suggested that the cold front was located along southeast OH at 3 AM, moving slowly east. The showers and storms activity along the cold front have decreased considerably overnight. Kept previous PoPs as they denoted a decreasing trend and have lingering showers over the east. The latest is supported by the high resolution model solutions. High pressure builds behind the cold front to bring clear skies and dry air mass to the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Not too many changes in the overall forecast. Weak low pressure will pass to our south and east on Tuesday with the best forcing remaining well to our east. I did bring in a chance for showers with highest PoP in the mountains, but guidance is in good agreement with keep any heavy rain in Central Virginia. Deep upper trough digs over the region on Wednesday. Strong surface low tracks up the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the region Wednesday night. This will spread widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms into our area, but with relatively low PWAT values we are not expecting any issues with flooding. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Start the period with deep upper trough overhead and then sliding east of the area Thursday night. There will be a chance for a few showers on Thursday, but brief ridging start to build in later in the day. The pattern turns zonal thereafter and several waves move through the flow that will keep conditions unsettled through the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Monday... Radar images show debilitating showers and storms associated with cold front located just entering southeast OH. High resolution models suggest this activity will dissipate once crosses the OH River. MVFR ceilings will prevail across central and eastern sites under south to southeast breeze. Localized and brief periods of IFR ceilings will be possible mainly over the mountains. Conditions will improve to VFR after 1314Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could be lower than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L M H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Dense fog is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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