Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261529 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1025 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AIR SQUEEZES OUT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. CLIPPER LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ALL HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED. MOSTLY A 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATION WITH SOME 3 TO 4 INCHES IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THE NORTHWESTERN SNOW ACCUMULATION EDGE SET UP ABOUT AS EXPECTED...JUST W OF CRW ON NORTHEAST TO NEAR WESTON AND BUCKHANNON. STILL THINKING A SEMI LULL BETWEEN THE EXITING STORM AND THE REINFORCING COLD AIR TONIGHT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CREEP EAST...FURTHER INTO WEST VIRGINIA FOR A TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH THE APPROACHING COLDER AIR. WITH MORE FAVORABLE CRYSTAL GROWTH TONIGHT...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE EAST BEFORE DROPPING...WAS A BIT STRONGER ON THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WILL REEVALUATE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY...BUT DID RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TONIGHT A BIT IN THE LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...FIGURING CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE IMPENDING COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT. FIRST...ALL MODELS HAVE WHAT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LEFT FROM AN EXITING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ENDING EARLY FRIDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA DURING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A MODERATING TREND...AND TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 30S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA...BUT ALLOW A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL TRACK A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF US...AND LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX...BUT THEN GO OVER TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY MORNING AS A GOOD WARM SURGE PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE 40S. THEN...HERE COMES THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY CHANGE THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DECREASES. RAIN AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS THE REGION MID WEEK. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN TO START...BUT TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MID WEEK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH OHIO. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...AND PW VALUES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BASED ON THE PATH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE A BRIEF DRY SLOT DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WV LOWLANDS...BUT TOO EARLY TO FIGURE THAT IN AT THIS POINT. WITH THE RAIN...COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AT THIS TIME...AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE EVENT...AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THE MODEL RUNS UNTIL THEN...THUS CHANGING THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR FOR PKB TO CKB LINE. MVFR TO IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE...AS MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN SYSTEM TRIES TO EXIT THIS MORNING. AFT 12Z CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. A SECOND SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. VSBYS AND CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME IMPROVEMENT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW ENDING AND IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING MAY VARY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE WITH NEXT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JS

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