Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211831 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 231 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry/stable air lingers tonight. Low level moisture and dew points begin to increase Friday. Weak disturbances drop southeast Friday and Saturday. Front stalls in upper Oh Valley Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Driest air in the low levels lingers here this evening. at 18z...cumulus struggling to form...still expecting more cu in Ohio. Still figuring on debris clouds dropping southeast 06z to 12z Friday from upstream convection. Any significant fog overnight tonight should be limited to the deep and cooler mountain valleys or southern coal fields. Will leave just 20 to 30 percent pops for Friday. Weak forcing and still high 500 mb heights in weak flow aloft. boundary layer winds increase a bit from the west. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... No major changes to the short term forecast. Above normal temperatures and increasing humidity throughout the period as high pressure strengthens across the region. Still looking at the possibility of needing heat advisories during the period for much of the lowlands...particularly this weekend. Kept a mention in the HWO. Most of the period will remain dry...however...occasional disturbances moving southeast through the region will trigger showers and thunderstorms at times. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The heat will continue thru Monday with this weekend serving as the apex as the upper level ridge axis plagues the central parts of the country...keeping the extreme heat at bay thankfully. Still...highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will create heat index values likely eclipsing the 100 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. Will keep the mention of potential heat advisories in the current HWO. A caveat in realizing such thresholds will depend on areal coverage of any convection. A moisture axis from the upper level wave that comes thru Friday night may linger on Saturday as the ridge axis makes subtle changes. This may provide the lift for aftn convection once any mid level cap is broken. Our far NE zones may stay capped to keep the day dry. Another upper level wave will help to flatten the ridge some on Sunday and especially early next week with increased threat for shra/tsra long about Monday. The associated weak surface front will meander thru the area into midweek with a daily shra/tsra threat. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Just few to scattered cumulus 18z to 00z at 3 to 5 thsd ft agl from strong surface heating. Debris clouds aoa 10 thsd ft advancing se from lower Great Lakes. The cooler mountain valleys and southern coal fields of WV may still see some 2 to 4 miles in valley fog 08z to 12z Friday. Only some brief mvfr fog vcnty crw 09z to 12z. Have 4 to 6 thsd ft clouds agl forming nr 12z over eastern Ohio and northern WV with layers above. A few showers possible in easter Ohio and northern West Virginia 12z to 18z Friday...but with only chance pops...did not include in Pkb and Ckb tafs. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/30 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.