Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210231 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1031 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. WEAK WEEKEND FRONT POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1000 PM UPDATE... ISOLATED THUNDER HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER BENEATH TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK. 800 PM UPDATE... RAISED POPS AS PRECIPITATION FILLED IN BETWEEN COMMA HEAD AND TAIL WITH VORT MAX OVER MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. ALSO ACCOUNTED FOR THUNDER FAR INTERIOR SE OHIO BENEATH VORT LOBE. RAISED POPS IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N. PREV DISCN... MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED. FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME. THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MVFR VSBY AT TIMES MAINLY NRN SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUE...AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES TUE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AT TIMES LOWLANDS TUE. SHOWERS WILL DOT MUCH OF THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE AIR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SWD INTO THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN WV...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W BEHIND THE FRONT TUE...A BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES. MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE W BY TUE MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT BY TUE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY...WITH BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE OVERNIGHT AND TUE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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