Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100538 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1238 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Digging upper trough and cold front push east overnight. Next upper trough and cold front Monday night, and another upper trough Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 725 PM Sunday... Adjusted PoPs a bit with this fast moving system, and added blowing snow to the higher terrain into Sunday. Forecast otherwise on track, including snowfall amounts. Using special weather statements to handle the quick, initial burst of snow showers outside the high elevation advisory this evening. As of 200 PM Saturday... No major changes to the overall synoptic pattern with the digging of the upper level wave into the Great Lakes, providing the set up for convective snowfall across the CWA. Best lapse rates in the lower levels will be across the southern zones, and the upslope component will be somewhat short lived. Expecting the main accumulations in the mountains, with generally an inch or less over the lowlands. This could be a more robust event if not for the low dewpoint air in place, so sublimation will play a role in decreasing the snowfall, on the front end especially. Upper trough and low level moisture exits Sunday, with a reinforcement to the chilly airmass in place and mid 30s the ceiling for temperatures in the lowlands. Upper level wave descends into the Ohio Valley towards the end of the near term, with some mid level moisture/cloud cover for the region, but no precipitation late Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Saturday... As the system to our north exits, winds shift to the SW overnight on Sunday and continues into Monday. The warm southerly air will warm temperatures back to near normal for this time of year. A cold front pushes across the area Monday night and Tuesday morning. Precip may start out as a mix but everything behind the front should quickly change back to snow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 PM Saturday... Much colder air filters in behind the cold front on Tuesday and Tuesday night. NW flow with a fetch off the Great Lakes may provide some lake enhanced snow showers from Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. The active pattern continues through the week, with a brief break Wednesday before a clipper system pushes through late in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1232 AM Sunday... Latest radar analysis and surface observations show snow showers continue to push southeast across the region. MVFR conditions prevailed in most locations while IFR conditions were occurring in the heavier snow showers. The snow should end across the lowland counties by 14Z and then across the mountain counties by 17Z. In the mountains, BKW and EKN will have an IFR threat in snow through 09Z. Expect MVFR stratocu deck will persist through much of the morning across much of the lowland counties, and into the afternoon in and near the mountains. VFR conditions should prevail across the entire region around 18Z, with these conditions prevailing through 06Z Monday. Gusty west to northwest surface winds will back to the southwest this afternoon and become much lighter after 00Z Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and IFR may vary from forecast. Timing on improvement on ceilings today may vary. Gusty winds will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/10/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H M H M H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H M H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H M H M M M H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Another wave Monday night through Tuesday is forecast to have similar, squally snow showers producing IFR conditions, favoring the mountain terminals. IFR in snow possible on Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for WVZ520- 522-523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JSH

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