Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 261956 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 356 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG STORMS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREV FCST IN GENERAL. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. 18Z RADAR DEPICTING THUNDERSTORMS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND NW OHIO. THESE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING NW ZONES BY THE 21Z-22Z TIME FRAME. THE BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL RESIDES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST OHIO...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NW ZONES. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL RESIDES WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERAL THINKING IS THAT A MCS-TYPE FEATURE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID/LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE STRONG WIND THREAT WITH IT. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL EARLY MORNING BEFORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX RAMPS UP ONCE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STORMS FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. SPC HAS PLACE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE A CONCERN AS WELL. STILL COMING UP WITH 1.50IN TO 2.25IN OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MON. IN COLLAB WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 07Z MON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS. WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL BY TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...GREAT LAKES REGION...OH VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER...THE STUBBORN MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VORTICITY LOBES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...SOME CLOUDS AT BEST. USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 21Z FAR SE OHIO ZONES. LATER OVERNIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPEARS THAT IT MAY AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN ITS WAKE...WITH AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A STRONG STORM. MORE GENERAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...50 HYDROLOGY...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.