Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150755 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 355 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses late this afternoon and evening. Much cooler tonight into midweek. High pressure with a warming trend for the latter half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 355 AM Sunday... A cold front will interrupt the warm, dry weekend this afternoon. The front was crossing the Mississippi into Illinois early this morning, and is forecast to cross the Ohio River near sunset this evening, and the WV mountains by midnight. A quarter of an inch or less rainfall is expected as a 2-4 hour period of rain showers straddles the frontal passage. Little CAPE is forecast, so thunder will be at a minimum despite modest shear. However, winds will become gusty out of the southwest ahead of the front, especially during mid to late morning mixing with solar heating still occurring ahead of the cloud shield. Also, a shower or thunderstorm ahead of and along the cold front could bring down strong wind gusts. A short period of strong wind gusts will also immediately follow the front. Have peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts coded, but stronger gusts could be brought down in precipitation, and also worried mid to late morning mixing gusts could be a bit stronger. Leaned toward the HRRR for wind gusts today into tonight. Used a short term guidance blend for hourly temperatures, which will lower late today once the rain moves in, and then the front crosses. Temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 40s by dawn Monday, except mid to upper 30s over the highest elevations, and right around 40 in interior southeast Ohio.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 355 AM Sunday... Much cooler temperatures will usher into the region behind the front for Monday, but no widepsread fog or frost/freeze expected in the short term period. There will however be a slight possibility for showers or sprinkles across the far north on Monday, as upper shortwave trough moves east through the region. Otherwise, focus shifts to Tuesday morning, with a night of good radiational cooling expected. Kept low temperatures Tuesday morning just a bit below guidance, and forecasting a general lower to mid 30s area wide. Freeze headlines are looking likely across the northern mountains, with frost across most of the lowlands. The southern coal fields remain on the iffy side still at this point.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 355 AM Sunday... Extended period dominated by a very dry airmass, with cool mornings, warm sunny days, and low relative humidity. Relative humidities in the afternoons should easily dip into the 20 to 30 percent range across most of the CWA. The good news is, winds should remain relatively light, thereby negating the fire weather threat.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 205 AM Sunday... Fog had already begun forming at EKN as of 06Z, and is likely to be IFR to VLIFR most of the time until around 13Z Sunday morning. Other locations will have a VFR night, as light southerly winds increase, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Once the fog at EKN and the Tygart valley is gone, Sunday morning will be VFR all locations. A cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing MVFR in rain showers, and a wind shift to the west to northwest. Ceilings may go briefly IFR for an hour or two behind the cold front Sunday evening. Thunder is also possible, which may be associated with strong wind gusts. Timing of the rain is coded 21-00Z along the Ohio River, 22-00Z CRW, 23-03Z CKB, and 00-04Z in the mountains. Conditions will improve to VFR visibility and MVFR ceilings across the lowlands Sunday night. Light southeast surface flow overnight will become southwest and increasingly gusty on Sunday, to near 20 kts, and then shift to west to northwest behind the front, still gusty for a short time, before diminishing Sunday night. Timing of the cold frontal passage, and associated wind shift, is coded 22-23Z along the Ohio River, 23-00Z CRW and CKB, and 00-02Z in the mountains. Light southwest flow aloft overnight will become moderate southwest Sunday morning, moderate west late Sunday, and then light northwest late Sunday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR to VLIFR conditions at EKN may vary overnight. Timing of rain and wind shift, and degree of associated conditions, may vary a bit. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Dense overnight and morning valley fog next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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