Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 282316 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 716 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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715PM UPDATE... CONVECTION DECREASING WITH HEATING. WEAK VORTEX OVER LEXINGTON WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR OVER THE TRI STATE AREA AND TUG FORK VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES ONLY...AND MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A VERY WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW. A SHORT WAVE SHOWS SIGNS OF ROTATION IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE TN AND CENTRAL KY BORDER. MODELS NOT DETECTING THIS FEATURE MUCH. THE NAM HAVE SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXES MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. EXPECT THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN TO REACH EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS HALF OF OUR CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY ARE SHORT LIFE STORMS. ANOTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS ARE THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY STRONG OR MODERATE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOST OF HEATING. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...SOUTHWEST VA...SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHEAST KY. FOR FRIDAY...STARTING DRY IN THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM MODEL. MODELS NOT KEYING ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...EXPECT AFTERNOON PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. CODED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. WITH PWATS THAT HIGH...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY PARK THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE W EDGE OF A RESILIENT UPPER RIDGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP. OVERALL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER 00Z...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD STILL LINGER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN AFTER 04Z. AREAS MOST AFFECTED WOULD BE HTS TO CRW TO BKW. AGAIN...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MORNING MVFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY...AS WILL THE INSTABILITY AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VCTS NEEDED NOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ADD PREVAILING TSRA IN FUTURE ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING TO VARY. .AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
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&& WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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