Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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832 FXUS61 KRLX 241733 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 133 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Saturday... Minor flooding continues across parts of SE Ohio and NE Kentucky, however in most areas water is receding and flooding issues should continue to dwindle. A broad upper level trough moving through the western Great Lakes will provide mild and mainly dry weather this weekend. Models do show a couple weak 500mb ripples moving through tonight and Sunday. Kept POPs dry, but did include some additional clouds. High and low temperatures will run generally 5-7 degrees cooler than normal for late June.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 445 AM Saturday... Reinforcing shots of progressively cooler air arrive this period, on a series upper level short wave troughs that act to deepen the long wave trough position over the eastern U.S. The final short wave may finally be able to summon enough moisture for a shower or thunderstorm north come Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in for the finale...as the nadir of this cool spell is reached under clear, calm conditions Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 445 AM Saturday... This period begins with an increase in temperature and moisture, as an upper level long wave trough over the eastern U.S., moves off to the east. With the upper level high over the southwestern U.S. backing away, the upper level flow flattens. Increasing moisture in a return low level south to southwest flow around the surface high exiting to the east, and weak upper level short wave troughs in the flattening flow, will increase the chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday and especially Friday. A stronger upper level short wave trough and surface frontal system will bring a better chance for less diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms next Saturday. Central guidance temperatures accepted, which show warming and then leveling off above normal, especially at night. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 PM Saturday... VFR cumulus field in place this afternoon should dissipate some as the sun set. A couple 500mb ripples could bring some clouds tonight and Sunday, but rainfall is not expected. Depending on clouds, we could see some river valley fog early Sunday morning as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s in many areas. Opted to include some MVFR fog at EKN, but confidence not real high at this point. Wind will generally be light out of the west. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation tonight may be more widespread -- or not occur at all due to clouds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog early Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MZ

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