Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281017 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 506 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND PERHAPS N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA. APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7 INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY

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