Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241549 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1049 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Nearly stationary front meanders about the area into Sunday, as surface waves pass. Areas of significant rainfall possible into the weekend. The front finally charges through on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM Saturday... Rain overnight did not amount to much, and neither is warm advection rain today so far. Mainstem Ohio river forecasts reflect lower crests, as a result. The weather forecast is otherwise largely on track. As of 300 AM Saturday... A frontal boundary will remain across the area today as a wave brings an area of showers. Much of the area should then go into a lull later this afternoon and early this evening as the front pushes north of the area. Showers will return later tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts over southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia, although amounts are toned down compared to previous runs. Will continue the flood watch as the ground is saturated and streams and rivers continue to run high. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Saturday... The cold front will cross Sunday, taking the wet weather with it. A few storms are possible with fropa, particularly in the afternoon across the mountains. We are hopeful that the trends in less qpf with this system will come to fruition, which would lower expected crests on the Ohio early next week. Drier air will work in behind the front for early next week, though temperatures will continue to run well above normal during the day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM Saturday... The lull in active weather will be short lived as another rain maker moves through late week. It will mild through the week. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 505 AM Saturday... Areas receiving rain overnight have developed patchy dense fog. A wave will move along a cold front today providing numerous showers over the region. The front will gradually lift northward this evening, providing improving conditions. Showers in advance of a cold front will then move in from the west later tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H L L H M H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H M H H H H M H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L H M M H M H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L M M H H H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible at times in showers Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for WVZ005>011. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS..RPY/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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