Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240848 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 414 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND 08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FCS RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB. LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. RAIN RATES OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED. THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3 INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE. SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY. THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE 805 THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT. FIGURING IT WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. ALSO FIGURING WITH PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING. IF NOT... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BUT LATE TODAY. I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES. WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS. DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDER READINGS UP. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR 06Z...FRONT NEAR EKN TO CRW TO S OF HTS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER PUSH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FIRST. 500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING. THIS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW. THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 500 MB WAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS CORRIDOR FIRST. WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA 21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ON FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/24/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H L H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H L H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M M H M H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY

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