Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271016 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS DECK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT. STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/27/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY

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