Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211720 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS ON THE STRONGEST FORCING. STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW. STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS. WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE HIGH. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MZ

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