Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140549 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1249 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An oscillating front lingers in the area through the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 845 PM Friday... Main forecast challenge tonight concerns timing of the freezing rain advisories. Latest model trends for tonight delay a bit the onset of precip in Ohio and in the northwest West Virginia areas, and with colder air moving into the eastern slopes of the northern WV mountains. However, do not feel confident enough to adjust the timing, especially since this is a warm advection pattern that many times has precip comes in faster than the models. Thus, no significant changes. As of 200 PM Friday... Isentropic lift will be on the increase heading into this evening with the surface frontal boundary taking on an inverted trof orientation along the I79 corridor. This will allow rain to overspread the area tonight with the main axis setting up across portions of southeast OH and central WV. Expect a yucky night with very low stratus and some fog. With low level cold air in place, some of this will fall as freezing rain, generally north of the US 30 corridor this evening and overnight. QPF amounts surpassing half an inch is possible in the all liquid zone tonight across the I 64 corridor with much lighter qpf expected further north where surface temps will creep below freezing. There was minimal change in ice grids from previous shift across southeast OH and northern WV...up to a tenth of an inch. As such no changes in headlines needed there. Further south, there may not be much in the way of precip overnight, say from southwest VA into the southern coal fields of WV. Across the mountains...expect mainly rain until late when the cold surface high tracks into PA and NY to allow CAD to setup. There is some disagreement with the magnitude and extent of this, with the coarser models not overly excited. Hedged this part of the forecast to the Nam 4 km and meso Nam to better capture the expected CAD. This results in rain changing to freezing rain during the predawn across eastern Randolph and all of Pocahontas County. There is some concern this may wedge into southeast Fayette but confidence not high enough to include in advisory at this time given how warm it currently is there. There is also a concern of meeting ice storm criteria somewhere across the CAD areas in the northern mountains. However, given the uncertainty where the highest qpf axis sets up...have elected to hold with advisory and pass concerns along to evening shift. I did bump up totals to near a quarter inch across extreme eastern Randolph. The meandering frontal boundary will remain active on Saturday with bouts of rain continuing. We will have to monitor amounts as it will not take much to cause water problems. Surface temps will steadily warm through the morning so that freezing rain concerns will subside by afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday... A high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region south into our area Sunday night. This high will push a cold front further south and bring a break in PCPN Sunday evening into Monday morning. The front becomes stationary south of the area. The flow becomes northwest keeping sfc temperatures near freezing across the northern sections and the northeast mountains. If it rains, it will freeze upon contact with elevated surfaces. But models are in agreement with a aforementioned lull in PCPN. A series of short waves will pass along the stationary boundary to produce additional rain showers Monday. With soggy ground, much of this will be runoff, so do expect rises on streams and rivers, however flooding not anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... A high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region south into our area Sunday night. This high will push a cold front further south and bring a break in PCPN Sunday evening into Monday morning. The front becomes stationary south of the area. The flow becomes northwest keeping sfc temperatures near freezing across the northern sections and the northeast mountains. If it rains, it will freeze upon contact with elevated surfaces. But models are in agreement with a aforementioned lull in PCPN. A series of short waves will pass along the stationary boundary to produce additional rain showers Monday. With soggy ground, much of this will be runoff, so do expect rises on streams and rivers, however flooding not anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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00Z Saturday thru 00Z Sunday... As of 1245 AM Saturday... Stationary front stalled across area making for a tricky TAF forecast. Very difficult to decipher between a VFR/IFR TAF. Went with the more pessimistic approach due to the shear number of restricted flight cats out there. Generally should remain sub- VFR for most of TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Temporary scattered breaks to VFR quite possible. VFR likely at times south of rain shield. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L M L HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H H H M L M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M L M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L M L M M M M L AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Saturday night and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry mix, especially north.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-523-524-526. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JW

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