Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281809 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure crosses and then moves away today, with lingering NW flow showers. Brief dry weather mid week with another system late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 205 PM Tuesday... Cold front will be pushing across the area this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers associated with it. Behind the front there is an extensive stratus field that will likely persist into tomorrow morning at the least. This will keep overnight lows generally in the 40s across the region. Conditions will start to improve tomorrow as ridging builds in from the west. Skies will clear from west to east through the day. Depending on how fast we clear out will determine how warm we will get. For now, have decided to go slightly above MAV/MET guidance for highs, but if clouds linger longer this could be bust. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Tuesday... High pressure Wednesday before the next system begins to make its way into the region on Thursday afternoon. A broad area of low pressure moves right over the region Friday for an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms. A high shear/low buoyancy kind of regime, so not much in way of concerns except for isolated water issues. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 335 AM Tuesday... High pressure builds Saturday and Sunday. The next system arrives Monday or Tuesday and is another broad low pressure system - probably similar to the Thu/Fri system. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... Cold front will be pushing through the region this afternoon. Expecting isolated to scatted showers with the passing of the front and not enough confidence to include in any of the TAFs at this time. It`s possible that a rogue shower brings Tempo IFR conditions, but probability is low. Expansive low stratus field behind the cold front. Generally low MVFR to IFR ceilings currently seen in this stratus field through out Ohio. The low stratus will push in from the west and likely bring IFR ceilings to most locations. However, the timing of this is still uncertain. Along with low ceilings, fog may also be an issue in the mountain valleys due to the moist boundary layer and high soil moisture from recent rainfall. Conditions should improve after sunrise tomorrow as high pressure pushes in. Ceilings may rise to VFR by late morning with clearing skies as we head into Wednesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset of MVFR to IFR tonight in low stratus and/or fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.