Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271728 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 128 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving convection with heavy downpours today and Saturday. Southeast flow will raise shower chance Sunday mainly mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Upper ridge along the east coast will build westward today...with increasing heat and humidity. Isold showers and thunderstorms...already starting to develop across the mountains in the afternoon heat...will for the most part dissipate after sunset...although a few may continue to linger through the evening across the east as an upper disturbance rounds the edge of the ridge. With a very light steering flow...generally less than 5kts...thunderstorms will be slow moving...and capable of producing heavy downpours...with the moisture laden atmosphere in place. Otherwise...another warm muggy night on tap...with patchy fog developing. Saturday looks to be a carbon copy of today...perhaps a degree or two warmer with ridge continuing to build westward. Afternoon convection will fire again off the mountains...and possibly drift westward in the southeasterly flow. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A summer like pattern with weak and ill defined upper flow continues for Saturday. Despite the summer like warmth and moisture in a deep but weak south to southeasterly flow...with surface high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic looks like the dominant synoptic feature will an upper ridge over the area. Thus...with little discernible upper disturbances to help set convection off...will try to be deterministic and focus on diurnal summertime climatology for Saturday...with emphasis on the mountains in southeasterly flow. Thus...will go with slight chance of afternoon convection in the west...and the best chance for afternoon convection in the mountains. Any convection that forms over the mountains will tend to propagate northwestward into the low lands before dissipating Saturday evening. Should be more sunshine Saturday to go on the higher end of temperature the mid to upper 80s...but still tempered by the lush vegetation and moisture. A muggy and uneventful Saturday night is in store once any lingering convection dies Saturday evening. For Sunday...a bit of a change per general model agreement. The long forecast system drifting northwestward to the southeast U.S. Coast saturday will then drift north northwestward Sunday. Whether the surface system makes it to us or not...the supporting weak negatively tilted upper trough pulls even deeper moisture into our region. This brings a better chance for showers and storms...again mainly over the mountain counties. More clouds and showers mean slightly cooler highs on Sunday. For Sunday night...the northern stream looks to drop south just enough to keep the best chance for convection over the mountains. A weak cool front will accompany the amplifying northern stream...pushing southeast across the area Monday. Again...the best chance for convection remains over the mountains in the deepest moisture. Finally some drying looks likely from northwest to southeast during Monday behind the front...but still quite warm with highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level ridging rebuilds for a dog day summer pattern in the middle of next week, with diurnally driven thunderstorms. An upper level low is progged to roll across southern Canada later next week. It may get close enough to drive a cold front toward the area Day 7 night, so have chance pops persisting next Thursday night. Trended temperatures, mainly highs, down a bit per national guidance in this dirty ridge pattern. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Isold to SCT convection through about 00Z...with brief heavy downpours...and brief mvfr/ifr conditions in vicinity of storms. Greatest chance of storms across the mountains...including at sites KBKW and KEKN. After 00Z...MVFR valley fog developing late...generally after 06Z...particularly in areas that received rainfall during the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing mountain convection may vary an hour or two. KBKW/KEKN could be impacted by convection late this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The river gauge...and forecast the South Side Bridge in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS hydrologist is working to correct this problem. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL HYDROLOGY...ktb is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.