Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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744 FXUS61 KRLX 200723 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 223 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 110 AM Monday... High pressure slides south of the area this period. It cuts off the low level west to northwest upslope flow first thing this morning, so any lingering snow over the higher windward terrain will be gone by dawn, and the clouds will follow suit shortly thereafter, save for a little morning cu. Otherwise dry weather ensues this period, with southwest flow developing later today, around the backside of the exiting high. Along with sunshine, this will allow for a milder afternoon compared with Sunday. The south to southwest low level flow will limit radiative cooling tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Monday... High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday, with a warmer southwesterly flow taking hold as surface high pressure slides off to the east, out ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. Models still not indicating lots of moisture with this front, which will push east through the CWA late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, but still looking like a decent chance for precipitation, albeit light, across the north. Expect precipitation to start out as light rain Tuesday night, before transitioning to light rain and snow showers early Wednesday morning. At this point, generally less than an inch of accumulation is figured for the northern mountains late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, with no accumulation expected across lowland areas. Any precipitation will taper off by late morning Wednesday as front moves off to the east and moisture depth decreases. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Monday... High pressure will dominate the weather Thanksgiving day and Friday, with dry, but cool conditions. Focus then shifts to the weekend, when another system will potential move across the north, possibly spreading light precipitation back into the CWA. There is still a lot of uncertainty in this, but looking at the possibility of rain and snow showers again towards the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 110 AM Monday... Stratocu will continue to clear from southwest to northeast this morning. Bases will remain above 3 kft except at BKW, where an MVFR base will likely persist until clearing, around 11Z this morning. Bases may lower a bit through early Monday morning before the clouds scatter out. Some morning cu can occur, but is not likely to re-introduce ceilings. Otherwise expect VFR this period. Westerly surface flow will continue to diminish through early this morning, becoming light southwest after daybreak, and then light south for this afternoon and tonight. Moderate west to northwest flow will become light to moderate west later this morning, and then light to moderate southwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings are possible before clearing early this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 11/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/TRM/RPY NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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