Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140234 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1034 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1030 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK NOTWITHSTANDING THE PATCHY STRATOCU HANGING AROUND. THE DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN FROM THE NW AND HAVING SOME EFFECT ON RAISING BASES AND SHOULD HELP TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AS FCST...BUT THE STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION CATS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. 745 PM UPDATE... DECREASED SKY AND TEMPERATURE VALUES A BIT OVERNIGHT. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT...ABOUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 17Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME 10-20KT WINDS TO MARK ITS POSITION. DO HAVE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO LIFT/SCATTER. INCLUDED SOME DRIZZLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TO START...AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT WITH COOL TEMPS AND WARM RIVERS THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME RETURN MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA. INCLUDED MORE CLOUDS THERE...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LAST COOL SPELL...THE MET WAS THE OVERALL WINNER...SO BLENDED TOWARD THE MET ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AMAZING HOW QUICKLY WE LOOSE THE W/NW FLOW...LEAVING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE UPPER NEW RIVER VALLEY. FIGURING MOSTLY CLOUDS FOR US...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT FOR OUR SE COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WAS A BIT SLOWER INCREASING POPS MONDAY EVENING. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE SUPPORT AND MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...40 NORTH...30 SOUTH FOR NOW. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE EXITING THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUR WAY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ON TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST., && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS THRU PERIOD WITH WEAK BOARD 500 MB TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND OUR VICINITY. THIS LEAVES US IN A WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND KEEPING THE DOOR SHUT FOR DEEP MOISTURE. FIGURING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DOES NOT COME DIRECTLY OVER US BUT REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS ALLOWS A PROLONG PERIOD OF E AND SE FLOW. SO WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN AND MORE CLOUDS ON OUR EASTERN SLOPES. WILL ACCEPT WPC GUIDANCE AND LEAVE DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW...BUT DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MAY SINK DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR LESS STRATOCU BUT CLEAR SKY AND WIND BECOMING CALM WILL ALLOW RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 06-08Z. BKW WILL HAVE LOW MVFR STRATOCU CIGS AT TIMES EARLY ON. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AROUND 13Z SUNDAY MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORNING CU...AND THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT VFR. LIGHT NW SFC FLOW EARLY ON BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BECOMES LIGHT W OVERNIGHT AND THEN REMAINS SO ON SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS AT BKW MAY VARY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 09/14/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...TRM

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