Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200110 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 908 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm, very humid air through Saturday. Cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Cool canadian high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. Cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 910 PM Friday... Will update the chances of precipitation this evening based on the latest radar trends. As of 245 pm Friday... The better flow for convective development lies over the southern tier of counties through this evening...but mid and high level moisture is keeping that in check for right now. Still think the coverage of the showers will increase...but maybe not with as much thunder as activity further north in clearer conditions. Still operating in a high moisture content environment...tapped from the western Gulf of Mexico...although PWAT values are closer to the 1.6 inch range as opposed to over 2.0 inches...which is pinned further south over the Tennessee Valley. Regardless...downpours are possible in the slow moving cells...although areal coverage of the cells is on the smaller side. As mentioned in the earlier aviation discussion...some uncertainty tonight lies with the valley fog/stratus potential. Also...have left slight chance POPs in overnight No significant changes to the temperatures...with upper 60s/mid 80s in the lowlands and lower 60s/mid 70s for the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 pm Friday... Breaking news... this discussion does not talk about very warm, muggy air sticking around. A cold front approaching Saturday night, and then crossing Sunday morning, will eradicate the muggies Sunday afternoon. While the flow strengthens ahead of the front, the time of night, and the best forcing progged to shoot up through the upper Ohio valley, this mid to late August front does not appear to pose much of a strong nor heavy thunderstorm threat. Do have high likely pops moving across ahead of the front overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. Low cloud immediately behind the front Sunday morning should mix out Sunday afternoon as the drier air behind the front moves in. There may be stratus in the mountains early Monday morning on weak upslope flow, and valley fog across the lowlands where the gradient and flow slacken. Otherwise plenty of sunshine is on tap for Monday with some cu. Monday night looks to be clear and calm with valley fog as fog season is underway. Temperatures may be somewhat non-diurnal Saturday night and Sunday with the clouds, precipitation and passage of the front. Lowered lows for Monday morning with the MET being lower than the MAV for a change, otherwise no major changes to temperatures. Lowered dew points a bit quicker behind the front Sunday afternoon and night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 pm Friday... High pressure brings a cooler, less humid reprieve for the first half of the extended period, Tuesday and Wednesday. While low level moisture may start to return northward on the backside of the exiting high Wednesday, the weather will remain dry until Thursday, when another cold front approaches from the west. The onset of the precipitation looks to be a bit fuzzy at this distance, with the chance gradually increasing Thursday and Thursday night, a part of the forecast that will likely need fine tuned with time. Friday carries the best chance for showers and thunderstorms associated with this front, with the front itself progged to cross Friday night. Temperatures were close to a blend of the MEX, blended and central guidance with no major changes. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 715 PM Friday... Generally VFR conditions will prevail this evening...with just a few showers causing restrictions. Challenge comes later tonight with the question of valley fog or stratus. Think that fog will initially form, followed by a stratus deck that raises visibilities. Confidence in this is low however. If stratus does form...it will gradually raise into a cumulus deck on Saturday. Expect more afternoon convection on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except low in fog/status. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Stratus may or may not form, effecting density of the fog overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/20/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H L L M M M L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, and in fog and stratus most mornings.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/26 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...RPY

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