Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212345 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 745 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southeastward this evening. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Thursday... No significant changes made this evening. Expect river valley fog once again...perhaps with a bit later of an onset than last night. As of 225 PM Thursday... A few pop-up showers dot the radar across southern portions of the area this afternoon, where the cu field is a bit more stout than farther north. One or two showers may stand up into a thunderstorm. The causative weak upper level low drifts southeastward tonight. This, along with loss of heating, will eradicate the showers and cumulus around sunset. Stacked high pressure builds tonight and Friday. Deep layer light flow will allow for widespread dense valley fog tonight, which then gives way to a mainly sunny Friday by late morning. Temperatures close to mostly well converged guidance in this benign pattern. Lowered the valleys tonight per the MET. The MET did seem high for Friday, but raised some spots a notch or so. Temperatures continue above normal per continued upper level ridging, and no air mass change.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Thursday... Continued hot and dry under high pressure in the short term period, with foggy mornings. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 PM Thursday... High pressure will continue to dominate for the first part of next week. Could be a few diurnal pop up showers across the mountains during peak heating hours early next week, but for the most part, we should remain dry and hot. An upper trough and surface cold front will move into the area around Thursday, with scattered showers and slightly cooler temperatures to round out the end of the week. QPF at this point still looking to be minimal. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Thursday... High pressure building surface and aloft tonight and Friday spells widespread dense valley fog overnight into Friday morning, followed by VFR conditions after 13Z Friday. Onset may be a bit later than last night. Flow surface and aloft weill be light northeast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30/TRM

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