Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131124 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 624 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An oscillating front lingers in the area through the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Friday... Forecast on track. As of 340 AM Friday... A busy day ahead starting with lingering showers from yesterdays cold front which eventually turns into a stationary front and ushers in more precipitation over the region today. Meanwhile cold air from the north funnels down and should pose a freezing rain threat for the northern portions of our forecast area (generally north of I-64) as we transition into Saturday. Issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for this. Depending on the extent of cooling in the mountains, we may approach warning criteria amounts there (0.25"+) of ice, but very low confidence in this especially since ground temperatures will be starting out fairly warm with the recent warm spell. NAM model soundings in the area are solid freezing rain profiles for at least 10 hours. The big question will be if QPF maxima coincide with the coolest profiles. This will have to be watched closely by the day shift.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday... Have continued freezing rain across the northern third of the CWA to start the period, but temperatures should warm up through Saturday morning -- as a front noses north -- with a transition to rain. A wave moves along the oscillating front later Saturday, driving it back south. It looks to stall across southern CWA, or just south of the CWA border Saturday night before drifting back north later Sunday. This all spells periods of rain through the weekend. None of it is overly heavy, however several upper level ripples moving through could bring some periods of moderate rain. Generally have less than half an inch of QPF through the short term period. With soggy ground, much of this will be runoff, so do expect rises on streams and rivers, however flooding not anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday... Front across southern CWA to start the period will gradually lift north as a surface low lifts out of the southern plains. As that low crosses the western Great Lakes into Canada, it will push a cold front through the middle Ohio River Valley and Appalachians Tuesday night into Wednesday. Have high chance to likely POPs with the cold front. An upper level shortwave trough late in the week brings a lingering chance of rain. Not much in the way of cold air in store for us...with temperatures running well above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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00Z Friday thru 00Z Saturday... As of 625 AM Friday... IFR/MVFR mix. Lowest conditions in the south near the front. Front will move slowly northward today. Expect a brief return to VFR midday today before flight restrictions return this evening. Cold air will filter in tonight which should bring freezing rain at the northern sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More IFR may develop than in TAFs due to saturated lower levels and the transition of the front northward. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 01/13/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M L M M M H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry mix, especially north.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-523-524-526. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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