Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181523 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1023 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure crosses today. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1025 AM Sunday... Quick update for Sky Grids to start clearing earlier through this afternoon. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 400 AM Sunday... Expired winter weather advisory across higher terrain. As of 205 AM Sunday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Much of the precipitation has tapered off, with mainly areas of -dz across parts of the lowlands, with some -shsn still continuing across the higher terrain. Looking like current winter weather advisory will be on track to expire at 09Z as planned, with precipitation appearing to be rather light/spotty in nature. Otherwise, gusty winds across the area this evening, will gradually become light throughout the day as surface high pressure continues to build in from the west, along with a gradual clearing trend. Temperatures under abundant sunshine should allow for a nice warm up, with temperatures expected to warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s for much of the area. Overnight, clouds will increase, along with chances for precipitation again, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the area. Expecting either a slight increase in temperatures overnight, or at least a steadying out of temps. Precipitation overnight is looking to be quick hitting, and light in nature, so not expecting any additional water issues from it at this time. There could be a very brief period of freezing rain or drizzle across the northern mountains early Monday, but at this point it appears to be very marginal, with temps probably rising before much moisture moves into the area. Have kept a mainly rain forecast at this point. Flooding along the Ohio River is expected to continue through at least Monday or Tuesday, depending on location.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... A warm front will lift through on Monday with an area of showers. Rainfall amounts should generally be a quarter inch or less. Tuesday will be abnormally warm -- with the whole forecast area firmly in the warm sector. Bumped highs up another degree on average. Am still a couple degrees below warmer MOS guidance. Still... looking at record highs for the day and possibly the month of February as a whole. Slowed down POPs a bit Tuesday night, expecting it to remain dry. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... A cold front will push through Wednesday afternoon or evening. Have POPs on the increase in SE Ohio Wednesday morning, with an area of 70-80 POPs crossing the forecast area with the front. Also have slight chance of thunder mentioned. Differences remain in the models as to how quickly the front will clear the forecast area, and then eventually when it will lift back north as a warm front under the influence of the next surface low. Maintained chance POPs through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 555 AM Sunday... Widespread MVFR conditions in low stratus, will linger through at least 15Z, when gradual improvement to VFR is expected. Gusty westerly winds through 15Z, when winds will become light and turn more southeasterly. MVFR conditions will redevelop towards the end of the TAF period out ahead of the next system, which will spread rain back into the region. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions may vary from current forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M L H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...MZ/AB LONG TERM...MZ/AB AVIATION...SL

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