Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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778 FXUS61 KRLX 181750 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1250 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low keeps clouds in place today. Active pattern continues, with a warm front crossing Friday, and then a stronger low pressure system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 AM Wednesday... Overall the forecast remains on track however I added some patchy drizzle to the forecast through about noon today. Then just mostly cloudy everywhere with showers in the mountains after that. As of 615 AM Wednesday... Rain/drizzle has been slow to arrive, and very light so far. Cut back POPs some early this morning. Also ended POPs sooner this afternoon, based mainly on the HRRR and RAP. As of 1230 AM Wednesday... Cold front has exited to the east, taking any showers with it. Attention now turns to 500mb low which will cross the upper Ohio River Valley through this morning. This feature will keeps lots of low clouds in place through much of the day. Also expect some rain showers and/or areas of drizzle through mid morning. Some of this could be light snow late today at the highest elevations as 850mb temps drop below freezing after 12Z. QPF is pretty limited so only have a tenth or two of accumulation along the highest ridges. 850mb temps should bottom out around 15Z and then start warming, so any lingering precipitation should taper off through the afternoon. In the trapped low level moisture, clouds will linger longer -- through much of the afternoon across the south, and through much of tonight farther north. Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, but still mainly above normal with lowland highs in the 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will generally be just above freezing...and likely the coolest night through this forecast package. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... High pressure Thursday. A system lifts through the area Thursday night and Friday. Overall it seems to be modeled well, but there is also some indication that as it traverses our cwa that the precip shield splits due to downsloping. For now, just kept general high pops across the area mainly in the overnight hours. This one looks like about a 1/4 of an inch of rain for everyone. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Dry weather for Saturday then a large system approaches the area Sunday and arrives Sunday night into Monday before exiting early Tuesday. Still too warm for snow, so rainfall amounts and winds are the primary concerns with this system especially with our saturated soils. Models are in good agreement on details, so fairly confident in its occurrence thus have pops on the high side for that timeframe. Due to the systems approach trajectory, downsloping may break up precip shield again. The system will be occluding as it passes the area, so QPF amounts may be maximized in the vcnty. High pressure builds Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1245 PM Wednesday... High pressure is building into the region but still a abundant amount of low level moisture in place with widespread MVFR ceilings. Clouds should slowly break up from south to north this evening into tonight as the high continues to push northward into the region. If we are able to clear tonight at any location the antecedent conditions suggest that IFR fog will be possible with the saturated soils. Not enough confidence to go with IFR fog at this time to the 18Z forecast, but later shifts may need to add fog for early Thursday morning if clearing occurs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings may may start to lift sooner this afternoon and this evening earlier than expected. Fog may form overnight if clouds lift. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.