-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 031050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
POTENT WINTER SYSTEM GRADUALLY WRAPPING UP TODAY. VERY COLD AIR FOR
MARCH TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT REMAINING MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THANKFULLY THE DURATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN WAS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 HOURS
BEFORE SLEET MIXED IN...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVED SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WAVE PASSING THIS PREDAWN.  HAVE THE BACK EDGE REACHING TRI
STATE AROUND HTS 12/13Z AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 15/16Z.
STILL A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AT 09Z FROM RALEIGH COUNTY ON
SOUTHWEST INTO COAL FIELDS.  THINKING THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR WILL
ONLY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL LOWERED STORM SNOW TOTALS...BUT HARD TO FIGURE AMOUNTS
SINCE A SNOW BURST MAY STILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN WV INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF WV WITH THE ONGOING WAVE. THEN THERE IS THE
ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF SLEET STILL HOLDING ON BETWEEN BKW AND LNP AT
11Z.

DROPPED PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES FROM WARNING...AND MAY DROP OTHERS
IN THE NORTH TOWARD DAWN.  AS PROMISED WE DROPPED SOME MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES AT 530 AM FROM THE WARNING...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP MORE
LATER THIS MORNING.

DRYING TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BECKLEY ON DOWN INTO BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES WILL HOLD ONTO
FLAKES LONGER THAN OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

IN THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
FASTER THAN FIGURED OVERNIGHT.  STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH 14Z/15Z BEFORE RECOVERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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CLOUDS QUICKLY DECREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALREADY IN PLACE FARTHER WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
OHIO. CWA WILL BE IN NO MANS LAND BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS...SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS
RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS BY NORTH AND SOUTH
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS PASSING BY...THICKEST ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE A VERY CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATION AL
COOLING FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
GRADUAL 850MB WARMING BRINGING A NON-DIURNAL TREND. BLENDED HOURLY
TEMPS TOWARDS THE MAV...WHICH IS MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT PLACES LIKE EKN. NOT AS COLD IN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. FOR
HIGHS...USED A BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLEND...AGAIN STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS SHOWS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE 12Z SET OF TAFS. THE MAIN SUPPORT WITH
FINAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA MAINLY HTS-CRW-
EKN LINE ON SOUTH. HAVE THE BACK EDGE OF THAT SUPPORT REACHING HTS
AROUND 12Z...THEN EKN TO BKW BY 15Z. AROUND 11Z...SEEMS AS IF THE
HEAVIER RADAR RETURNS ARE STAYING SOUTH OF EKN WITH THIS WAVE.

SO HAVE THE LOWEST VISIBILITY IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
THE LAST OF THE SLEET WILL BE ENDING AROUND PINEVILLE TO GRUNDY
AND CLINTWOOD AROUND 12Z. .

CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FINAL
WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED TO MEDIUM IN TRYING TO FIGURE HOW LONG
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLD AIR KEEPS CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY. IN THIS ARCTIC AIR...THINKING
SOME MODEL SOUNDING TOO MOIST IN THAT LAYER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 2 TO 3 THSD
FT MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>032-037>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ083-
     085-086.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB