Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210600 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 100 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure yields to southwest flow overnight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving and Friday. Cold front crosses Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 100 AM Tuesday... Forecast on track. As of 1005 PM Monday... No changes this evening. As of 615 PM Monday... Gave the sky grids and overnight lows some TLC, but no major changes otherwise. As of 202 PM Monday... Main forecast concern through the near term will be temperatures and winds as southwest flow engages behind a departing high pressure system and in advance of an approaching cold front. With light winds anticipated early tonight, prime radiational cooling conditions will result in a quick temp drop toward dewpoints which currently reside in the low 20s. Temps will level off later in the night across the lowlands as winds begin to stir. However, sheltered mountain valleys will stay decoupled through much of the night allowing them to fall deep into the 20s. Winds will ramp up quickly after dawn on Tuesday as we mix up into stronger winds aloft. Gusts 20 to 25 mph are expected out of the southwest. The strong mixing and partial sunshine will help boost temps into the 50s to near 60 for most locations outside of the higher mountains. Clouds will be on the increase through the day, but expect any precip with the approaching front to hold off until Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Monday... This period begins with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Although we are expecting precipitation, amounts still remain on the light side as the WPC QPF is only around one tenth of an inch. Models indicate the northern quarter of our area and the mountains will be the only locations that will see the precipitation change over to a snow or rain/snow mix as this system moves out early Wednesday. Prefrontal temperatures will be near normal Tuesday night, but will drop quickly as cold air moves. Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will be around 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 PM Monday... High pressure, with below normal temperatures and light winds, will be present Thanksgiving Day until early Saturday morning. Although models still disagree somewhat another rain or rain/snow event, especially for the northern part of our area, is possible as yet another cold front moves in. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 AM Tuesday... VFR overnight and Tuesday with cirrus the dominant cloud type, with additional FEW030 morning cu developing during mixing of the boundary layer Tuesday. Low level moisture will be drawn up across the central Appalachians from the south, out ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. This could bring MVFR ceilings to the mountains Tuesday night, starting around 01Z BKW and then around 04Z EKN. BKW ceilings could drop to near IFR by 06Z Wednesday. Elsewhere, higher SCT-BKN stratocu is expected Tuesday night, as the cold front moves into the middle Ohio Valley. A light rain shower is possible in east central Ohio, and into northern WV, late Tuesday night. Light south to southeast surface flow overnight, will increase and become south to southwest on Tuesday, with wind gusts to 20kts possible during mixing from afternoon heating. These southwest winds will diminish Tuesday evening. Flow aloft will be moderate southwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could form at EKN overnight. Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu could vary Tuesday and Tuesday night. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 11/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ABE/TRM/26 SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.