Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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413 FXUS61 KRLX 281740 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Daily chances for showers and storms prevail through the weekend amid the ongoing heat wave. Cold frontal passage Tuesday. Brief high pressure Wednesday. Another cold front crosses Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 135 PM Saturday... A cold front stalls to our north this evening. An unstable environment, characterized by PWATs up to 2 inches, SBCAPE exceeding 3,000 J/Kg and poor deep layered shear will support development for slow-moving afternoon showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Localized water problems may result from repetitive heavy downpours, or very slow moving storms. Convection may be more active across the northern portions of our CWA nearby the front, and over the higher elevations this evening. Some models show few ripples of vorticity within a zonal flow at H500 passing tonight. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas through this evening. The main threat will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. There could be a lull in precipitation activity late tonight into Sunday morning. However, expect less convective activity on Sunday. A clean zonal flow at H500 will allow for another episode of convection driven by diurnal heating and ample moisture during the afternoon and evening hours. It will remain muggy at night with dewpoints reaching the mid 70s across the lowlands. Hot temperatures in the lower 90s and available moisture will provide heat index values in the upper 90s across some lowland spots on Sunday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 135 PM Saturday... The front remains stationary across our north through Sunday night, and then relocates just northeast of our CWA by Monday. Its vicinity will enhance diurnal heating convection Monday afternoon and evening, while a new cold front approaches from the west. Models have been consistent on the timing of this new cold front, arriving to SE OH by Tuesday morning. Central guidance increases PoPs to categorical Monday through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected. Flooding issues may be a concern. Sunday and Monday nights will still feel less muggy than previous night with temperatures in the upper 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s northeast mountains. Hot temperatures around 90 degrees can be expected Monday afternoon across the lowlands. However, temperatures will moderate on Tuesday due to abundant cloudiness, cooling showers and a relatively fresher airmass behind the cold front. Expect highs in the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the 60s higher elevations on Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 135 PM Saturday... Surface high pressure builds Tuesday night and Wednesday providing drier weather conditions and a return of hot temperatures. Forecast weather charts show another cold front arriving to our area Thursday, crossing slowly south into early Friday. Although, it is still far out, accepted general guidance with slight chance probability of precipitation for now. A gradual warm up can be expected Wednesday into the weekend, with temperatures reaching the lower 90s by Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Saturday... Early morning fog along the higher terrain will erode quickly after the issuance of the 12Z TAF package. After a quiet few hours, another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area today amid an encroaching frontal boundary and prevailing hot and muggy weather. VCTS was included with this issuance after 16Z across all sites to account for this potential. The evening forecast becomes primarily radar driven, as ongoing convection could linger into the overnight hours with the help of the advancing front. Calm winds tonight, in conjunction with the nearby front, will pose a higher likelihood for river valley fog late tonight into Sunday morning. This will especially be the case for locations that receive measurable rainfall with activity later on today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms may vary from the forecast this afternoon and evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms, and early morning fog, through Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...ARJ/JZ LONG TERM...ARJ/JZ AVIATION...ARJ