-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 170537
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
137 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure through the weekend and most of next week,
providing warm afternoons and cool nights.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Sunday...

As of 618 PM Saturday...

While there is still the possibility of a few showers developing
this evening, it does not appear that coverage will be as high
as expected. So have lowered PoPs top slight chance category for
the next few hours. Otherwise, nothing else changes at this
time.

As of 1250 PM Saturday...
A high pressure system will remain over the area. Low level
moisture is trapped under the high however, possible allowing
for some afternoon showers in the WV mountains. Expect some
dense fog to form again tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will lead to
slightly above normal temperatures. Expect patchy dense river
valley fog each  morning.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
both Sunday and Monday afternoon, across the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

No significant systems foreseen in the extended. There will be a
lingering weakness in the mean upper level flow that may help
to generate a few showers or thundershowers each afternoon,
primarily across the high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Sunday...

Mostly clear skies, calm flow and abundant low level moisture
will allow for radiational cooling and associated dense IFR/LIFR
fog along most river valleys. Satellite and sfc obs suggest
dense river valley fog has already develop. Any fog should
start dissipating around 13-14Z. Expect VFR cumulus deck once
again forming by mid morning. A few showers are possible across
West Virginia mountains after 18Z.

Another dense fog event will be possible tonight into Monday
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 09/17/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

No widespread IFR conditions at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JSH/ARJ/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ