Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290544 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 144 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... VALLEY FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS. SO IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/29/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L M M M H H M H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JW NEAR TERM...MZ/JW SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JW

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