Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 182304 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 700 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE THERE A FEW DEGREES. AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE. RAP MODEL QUICKLY VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z. THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT. WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET. THINKING THAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS. NO CHANGES TO POPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB LEVEL STILL FM THE NNE. RAP MODEL QUICKLY VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z. THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES IN THE 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS INTO BKW TRICKY...BUT HELD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL TRY TO KEEP CEILINGS MOSTLY 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND MVFR. SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THOUGH OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES. WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. BUT FURTHER WEST...FAVORED FOG OVER CLOUDS FOR ELKINS VCNTY. DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET. THINKING THAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS...FORECASTING IFR IN FOG REACHING CRW 06Z TO 08Z. IN THE DRIER AIR FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST...SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG OVER THE OHIO RIVER MAY FORM FOR 09Z TO 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...KTB

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