Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301914 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 214 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE THE CHILL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON DIURNAL. AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY. GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN LOWLANDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ038-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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