Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260755 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 348 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TODAY...AS FRONT DROPS THROUGH GREAT LAKES. FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DRIER AIR THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN CWA WITH THIS. MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING CWA NOW JUST AFTER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS OVER 12 HOURS FASTER THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS PRECIP FREE THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THE FASTER TREND WITH TODAYS RUNS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES THE MET HAS BEEN BETTER THAN THE MAV ON HIGH TEMPS...SO BLENDED MET INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TRICKY FORECAST FOR LATE AUGUST WITH A WEAK FRONT OOZING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRYING TO OSCILLATE BACK NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF BEING SLOWER WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRYING OUT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WILL KEEP OUR POPS ON TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST ON BOTH SIDES OF THE DEW POINT GRADIENT OR FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT GRADIENT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF THOSE LOWER DEW POINTS MAY LEAK INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE TRENDING TOO QUICK. IN ANY CASE CAN ONLY GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE WEAK FORCING. THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CWA. HELD ONTO SOME 20 POPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE LEFTOVER DEW POINT GRADIENT/FRONT...THEN KEEP NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHTS...COULD SEE LATE NIGHT/DAWN FOG ON THESE 2 NIGHTS...BUT WITH POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLOUDS AROUND WITH THE WEAK FRONT...DID NOT INSERT THICK FOG YET. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY... ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NE...WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM SOUNDING TRY TO KEEP SOME WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SHOWING UP ON THE VAD...SO THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION. STILL...THINK RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG. GOING IFR AT CRW...HTS AND EKN...WITH MVFR AT PKB WITH SOME THIN CLOUDS DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL RECOVER TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/26/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L M L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MZ

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