Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222301 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 601 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOWS FOR TONIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A NON DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS. DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MODELS INDICATED. WENT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP THROUGH 06Z THEN NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN ACROSS EASTERN KY MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE WV BORDER THROUGH AROUND 03Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... WITH THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MOVING OUT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES GETTING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS EXPIRED. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE IN EFFECT. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THRU THE AREA. LATEST NAM/GFS MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS WITH THE POPS AND WITH QPF WITH THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HI RES MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING THE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. THE NEWEST HI RES MODELS OF THE HRRR/RAP SEEM TO RECOGNIZE A TYPICAL SHADOW ZONE IN THE PRECIP BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO EVEN DOWNPLAY THE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. HAVE BASICALLY CHOSEN A COMPROMISE HERE. WHILE DOWNPLAYING THE AGGRESSIVE MODELS...THERE IS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT. SO WE WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE GREATER POPS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE MOUNTAINS. IN ANY EVENT...QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...EVEN IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND THE CLOUDS. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR A BRIEF PRECIP BREAK IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER YET. WITH A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 60S IN SOME AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... STILL LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT IT APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS QUITE SMALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY ONLY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE FASTEST MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST... FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND NAM. END RESULT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION...BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE WEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY BY LATE CHRISTMAS. MODELS INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND ONLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SO ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CHRISTMAS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE A WELCOME RETURN WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY 00Z...MODELS DIVERGE WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR POPS AS THAT SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ECMWF. SOME WAVINESS AROUND THE TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY MIX AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW TWEAKS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY... MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AFFECTING BKW. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 4000-6000 CEILINGS WITH BREAKS ESPECIALLY WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 00Z...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE VERY GENEROUS WITH RAIN...AS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST LOW POPS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO HOLD EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND VFR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 06Z MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY. GENERALLY BECOMING VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE BY 15Z AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INCREASES BY AROUND 18Z. S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H L L M M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NT INTO WED...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WED NT...AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/LS NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JMV

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