Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291737 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERN MOISTURE SKIMS SOUTH AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 130 PM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I79 CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED...BUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH VERSUS FCST. THUS INCLUDED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE OHIO ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 1030 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH GENERAL AREA OF PRECIP HAVING EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ADDED IN SOME LOW/MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 620 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN CWA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. ALSO ADDED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA...HAD A TRACE HERE AT THE OFFICE FROM A PASSING BATCH OF SPRINKLES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO...WITH RADAR ECHOS MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SW. NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN PLACE AROUND 12KFT SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER...AND EVEN SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 500MB RIPPLE DROPPING INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH TODAY...AND ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM HTS TO CRW THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE END MAY JUST BE PATCHY SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...AND BLENDED MET INTO THE PREVIOUS LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID/UPPER TROF DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY... SWINGING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO REACH INTO WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS A NICE DEW POINT GRADIENT AT 925 MBS ALONG THIS FEATURE OF ABOUT 6C. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RATHER THAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO WV. SO WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED WITH HIGHER POPS. WILL SWING SOME 20 AND 30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE. THAT DEW POINT GRADIENT SINKS INTO WV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING THE 00Z GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG IN SE OH...NE KY AND SRN WV FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWER IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. WITH LIGHT SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURE BELOW GFS MAV GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS. STRATUS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING FOR AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES. THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STILL HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS BY THE PREDAWN ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FEW LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REGARDING FOG FORMATION. RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST COULD SEE FOG...OR POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS INSTEAD. LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/50 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...50

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