Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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002 FXUS61 KRLX 260737 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through most of the region by late Tuesday, before dissipating Tuesday night. Next system late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1045 pm update... Lowered PoPs to slight chance at best overnight, dry across the far northern tier. 800 PM UPDATE... Forecast on track. 700 pm update... Heat advisory cancelled an hour early in coordination with ILN and PBZ, with thunderstorms cooling parts of the area and heat indices dropping below 100 elsewhere as of 7 pm. 515 pm update... Made some adjustments to PoPs including trimming back in southeast Ohio overnight. The forecast is otherwise on track. Previous discussion... Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening. Plenty of instability out ahead of the front and with a very soupy airmass. Storms will continue to fire along this front and could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front is expected to stall over our southern portion of the CWA. Storms are expected to continue over that area overnight. Some fog may develop over those areas that receive rain towards daybreak. The chance of showers will linger throughout the day...especially near the front. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models in decent agreement with a weak wave combining with daytime heating to pop some showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Have generally south to north POP gradient, with the highest POPs across southern CWA gradually decreasing to the north. The models are having a bit more trouble agreeing on a more significant surface low for Thursday into Friday. NAM and GFS show this wave riding along a warm front and crossing CWA Thursday into Thursday night... with the GFS a touch faster than the NAM. The ECMWF is farther NW with the surface low, and 12 to 18 hours slower. At any rate, with the warm front lifting through the region went with likely POPs Thursday. Precipitable water values look to be 2+ inches with this wave, so will have to keep a close eye on rainfall amounts, especially if the warm front is slow moving or becomes stationary. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Used a blend of the ECENS mean...NAEFS mean...AND GEFS mean. Weighted a bit more toward the ECENS mean than the others. This would leave the area in the warm sector with plenty of moisture Saturday. A cold front would then push into the area Sunday. Still questionable if this front would push south of the area or not for early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect widespread IFR conditions per the latest high resolution models, radar and satellite images at least through 12z. Patchy river valley fog will be possible along deeper valleys, however may not be enough to affect CRW and EKN overnight. Other deterministic models indicate a slight chance for showers or storms moving overnight across southeast oh into northern WV overnight. Bufkit soundings show high CAPE, low sheared environment for thursday afternoon. Coded VCTS at most sites for now as they are difficult to predict either storms will hit an airport or not this far. Widespread VFR conditions expected Tuesday A diffuse frontal boundary will remain over the area through late Tuesday. Do not see any disturbance that can enhance convection along the boundary so the chance for showers and storms is low. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site Tuesday afternoon. Timing of Fog formation and intensity may vary overnight into Tuesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/26/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M L M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...JS/TRM SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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