Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 250739 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 339 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STRONGER FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. RIVER/VALLEY FOG SHOULD TEMPORARILY FORM AGAIN THIS MORNING...EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POP CHANCES ARE ALMOST UNMENTIONABLE. NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WHILE THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE BULK OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHER THIRD OF THE AREA ACCORDING WITH NAM/GFS MODELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF LOOKS VERY DISORGANIZED IN ITS QPF FIELD THAT IT IS DISCARDED. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...WHILE THE NAM HAS IT WEAKENING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND COOLING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT COULD BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR/VLIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 08Z TO 13-14Z TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECTING FOG TO BURN OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG FOR SATURDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H L L L M H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...SL/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.