Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231820 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 120 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonably warm through Friday. A strong cold front crosses pre- dawn Saturday morning, followed by cooler weather for the weekend. A couple systems next week with precipitation chances.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Thursday... Widely scattered showers associated with warm advection and weak upper level short wave trough should be gone by late afternoon, as the upper level wave exits. Otherwise a warm southwest flow of unseasonably warm air dominates this period. Forcing associated with a cold front approaching from the west late Friday, and the associated convective threat, is progged to hold west of the forecast area through 23Z Friday. Inherited temperatures were accepted, close to guidance tonight and a little above on Friday, not to mention as much as 8 degrees above record highs for Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... Main weather maker for the short term is a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of this front, expecting good WAA, with even little downsloping component by mid afternoon as winds turn SSE. MAV and MET running above most other guidance, but with the extra help of the downsloping opted to trend this way as well. Have decent chance to break at least daily records...and possibly even some month of February records. Still some timing differences between models, with ECMWF and GFS fairly close with front crossing CWA from 06Z-12Z Saturday. NAM is about 3 hours slower. All models show the bulk of the precip occurring along and behind the front, so kept a dry forecast Friday, with POPs ramping up quickly around midnight. Around 500-700 j/kg CAPE with this system -- which is decent for overnight hours in February. And with the dynamic lift from the cold front, expecting thunderstorms overnight. Good shear expected during the same time frame. NAM showing 40kts bulk shear near the highest instability axis, but increasing to 60+kts just behind the best instability. This combination should be enough to create some threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Best chance of strong to severe storms will be across the mid Ohio River Valley, as convection moves in from the west...with a weakening trend as things move east across WV. Precipitation gradually tapers off Saturday and Saturday night. Cold enough air filtering in by late Saturday to see some snow flakes mixing in before precip ends. Brief high pressure expected Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM Thursday... High pressure will be drifting away to the east Sunday night with attention turning to a potential southern stream system for Monday. ECMWF not very excited about this, but the GFS brings a surface wave up the Ohio River Valley. Opted for chance POPs with this, hoping for better model consistency as we get closer. A surface low comes out of the Rockies midweek, bringing another chance of precip. Have likely POPs on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Thursday... Morning MVFR cu was most persistent over the western lowlands early this afternoon. It may take until 20-21Z for it to mix out over the middle Ohio Valley. MVFR mist is possible in the deeper valleys overnight tonight, Otherwise VFR conditions prevail in a south to southwest flow of unseasonably warm air. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratocu may persist more than forecast this afternoon. MVFR (or worse) valley fog may affect more sites than EKN overnight tonight. Increasing flow will lessen the chance toward dawn Friday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H M H M H M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

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