Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 102352 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 740 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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RAP MODEL HAS LAST LINGERING 500 MB TROF/VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROF PASSING CRW AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW CELLS LINGERING. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE 03Z HOUR IN MOUNTAINS TO WESTERN SLOPES. WILL ADD A BIT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT TO HTS AREA SINCE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL FIGURING ON A NICE MID SUMMER FRIDAY. BUT SOME OUR COUNTIES ACTUALLY USE THE RAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SYSTEM THEN MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL TIMING STILL VARIES WITH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. NAM HAS A LOT LESS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING MUCH MORE. NAM HAS VARIED CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS BRINGS A SYSTEM INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL THEN MOVE FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ISOLATED CONVECTION ONGOING AROUND 00Z FRIDAY...CRW MAY BE HIT BY ONE 00Z TO 01Z. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TIL ABOUT 03Z IN MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES. ADDED A BIT MORE FOG AT HTS VCNTY SINCE LOCAL SHOWERS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HAD FOG A BIT SOONER OVERNIGHT AT CRW FIGURING ON LOCAL RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING. BY 13Z...VFR WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT AFTER 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT 06Z THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/11/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. IFR IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KTB

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