Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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498 FXUS61 KRLX 191824 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 224 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons is on tap through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure system crosses early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1011 AM Thursday... Forecast in good shape for morning update. Sunny and warm this afternoon. 148 AM Thursday... Weak S/W trof exits this morning. Southwest wind will pick up after sunrise and will gradually turn westerly this afternoon. this wind should keep any fog or frost at bay. Some sheltered mountain valleys could see patchy fog or frost to start this morning, but should quickly dissipate after sunrise. Moderating high pressure over the area will make temperatures a tad warmer today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... A high pressure system will continue to provide dry conditions Friday. This high pressure will drift east of the area resulting in warm, and continued dry weather under southwest flow through the weekend. Used the super blend of models and bias corrected SREF models for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... A strong upper level low pressure system in the northern stream will drive a sfc cold front over the OH Valley Sunday night. A second low pressure system at the sfc will produce southwest flow, increasing winds, and dewpoints by Monday night into Tuesday. Both features will become in phase to enhance showers or storms Monday through Tuesday. Allowed PoPs to increase to likely for now across the entire area for Monday through Tuesday. Went with the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z Thursday thru 12Z Friday... As of 615 AM Thursday... High pressure in control over the region. VFR conditions will continue through the weekend. Any fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise this morning, especially at KEKN. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kts this morning becoming west this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may affect more terminals if low level winds relax. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and in rain at times early next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...JS/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JS

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