Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260550 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1250 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN...EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT PCPN IS FAR AWAY SOUTHWEST TO START OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THIS PCPN COULD EXTEND FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL WV WITH LESS OR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED NT INTO THU MORNING. TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW -10C. THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS. WARM ADVECTION AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. THE EXPECTED PCPN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO FAST WHEN COMPARED WITH DOPPLER RADAR. THEREFORE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN WHICH SHOULD START AS RAIN BY 09-12Z...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITIONING INTO SNOW BY 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER 09-12Z INTO MVFR/IFR WHILE PCPN REMAINS LIQUID OR MIXED WITH SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...DECREASING WEST INTO THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...ALONG THE EAST COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/26/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L M M M M H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L M M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ032-037>040. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046- 047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033>036. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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