Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290221 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1021 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERN MOISTURE BRUSHES AREA MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPDATE... MADE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE LOW END POPS FROM THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...MAINLY BY ADDING SMALL PATCHES TO THE OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST. EVENING REMAINS QUIET EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A BRIEF TRIP TO PRECIPITATION MODE FROM ECHOES ALONG THE KENTUCKY/VIRGINIA BORDER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WILL BE TRACKING ANOTHER S/W TROF TO CROSS ON MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF IT...TOUGH TO FIGURE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FOG FORECAST. FEEL LIKE THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO SW VA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF TROF GIVEN MEAGER DYNAMICS AND LACK OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NE KY/S WV...SLIDING INTO SE WV AND SW VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO SHOW SOME SUN ACROSS NE KY/SE OH IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ENTIRELY EXTEND INTO THE LOWLANDS AS COLUMN DRIES OUT WITH TROF PASSAGE. ROLLED WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AS A BASE FOR TEMPS...INCORPORATING A 50/50 BLEND OF MET/MAV.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY CONTROLS THE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE THAT PUSHES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOISTURE STARVED...SO GENERATING PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THAT SAID...THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SMALL POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE THE TREND WHILE SLOWLY GETTING SHUNTED TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE 12Z TIME FRAME ON MONDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...A DEVELOPING AREA OF VORTICITY IN THE 500MB LEVEL WILL GENERATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TRI STATE WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE RETREATS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. IN THE END...THIS SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT BETWEEN THE TWO CAUSES. SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF BKW...CRW...AND HTS ARE LEFT VFR TONIGHT. PKB...CKB...AND EKN HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. HAVE EKN FOGGING LATE AS IT WAITS FOR THE MOISTURE TO EXIT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L M M M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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