Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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222 FXUS61 KRLX 261958 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 258 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through tonight. Warmer with upper level disturbances and rain showers next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 950 AM Sunday... Sfc high pressure remains in control of the weather conditions through tonight. Then, a series of H500 short waves noticeable in vorticity field, will pass across the area early Monday. These features could bring a chance for rain showers mainly across southeast OH and portions of northern WV. Temperatures will be around normal tonight, with values ranging from the mid 30s lowlands, into the mid 20s higher elevations. Highs on Monday will be above normal per plenty of sunshine and southerly flow. Used the blend of models guidance through the period. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Sunday... Warm air advection continues with a passing warm front on Tuesday. This front will bring light rain showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Moisture will increase under deep southwesterly flow through Wednesday with ensembles showing anomalous PWATs of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal by 12Z Wednesday morning. An amplifying upper trough sweeps southeastward into the Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon, driving a strong cold front through our area. Operational and ensemble guidance is in generally good agreement on this feature and confidence for widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms is growing. Whether or not any storms will be severe Wednesday afternoon is still uncertain. However, this pattern is very similar to the front that went through this past Saturday, but current timing has this front reaching the Ohio Valley in the afternoon hours instead of overnight. Dew points are progged to be in the upper 50s and even if there is extensive cloud cover, CAPE values still look to be in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. Very strong southwesterly wind field yields an impressive shear profile with current GFS indicating 60 to 70 KTS of 0-6km bulk shear. The modest instability could be a limiting factor to severe potential, but we will likely have to monitor over the next couple days as the forecast details unfold. The cold front should clear the area late Wednesday night. With the upslope northwest flow behind the front precip may change over to snow showers in the mountains earlier at higher elevations than currently forecasts, but little accumulation is expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday... Forecast guidance continues to indicate a weak clipper system Thursday night into Friday. Cold air will be in place and most of the area has the possibility to see snow showers, but confidence is very low whether there will be any accumulations, with northern areas and the mountains being most likely to see accumulations. High pressure builds back over the region for the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1225 PM Sunday... Widespread VFR conditions will continue through tonight as a sfc high pressure remains in control through tonight. Winds will gust up to 21 knots at some sites. Flow becomes light and variable tonight continuing light and variable Monday. H500 charts show a series of mid level short waves passing through on Monday. This could bring some chances for PCPN mainly southeast OH and portions of northern WV Monday. Some showers could bring brief periods of IFR under moderate rain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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