Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280701 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 301 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS THERE. THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT. SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE HIGH WATER. MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY. MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING. THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT. .AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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