Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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573 FXUS61 KRLX 300240 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1040 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sag southward on today and Tuesday...with a stronger front on Wednesday ushering in a cooler end to the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1040 PM Monday... Gave the temperatures and dewpoints some TLC. Otherwise...no significant changes this evening. Previous Discussion... Weak cold front...currently in southeast Ohio...will continue to sag south through the region today into Tuesday. Isold showers and thunderstorms will be possible today...mainly along and south of the boundary...during peak heating hours...with precipitation expected to taper off after sunset. Overnight...drier air will filter in across the north...particularly southeast Ohio area...with muggier air remaining across southern 1/2 to 2/3 of CWA. Fog expected again tonight...mainly across the deeper mountain valleys. Tuesday looks to be dry most places...with the exception of the higher terrain counties during peak afternoon heating hours. Will be hot again...with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... High pressure will have a firm hold on the Region through Wednesday. This results in another hot day to start this time period. Do anticipate the bulk of the area to remain dry Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with limited moisture. One exception is the Mountains during the heating of the day. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms will move across the Ohio Valley. However, once the front passes by, cooler and drier weather will be a welcome change. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Monday... Started with WPC for this forecast. Once the cold front moves across the area, high pressure will be in control for the end of the week into the weekend. This will bring dry weather. High temperatures will gradually increase over the weekend. Starting on Friday, expect temperatures in the lower 60s in the high elevations to the 70s in the lowland. Throughout the weekend, temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s west to the lower 70s in the mountains. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Monday... Going with a persistence type forecast from last night...and keep the IFR and worse fog in the mountain valleys and the I-79 corridor at CKB and CRW. Guidance is too aggressive in taking the PKB/HTS into IFR visibilities...so will only give them brief MVFR late tonight. Fog at EKN may not lift to VFR until 14Z Tuesday. VFR Tuesday with any chances of convection again confined to the mountains at EKN/BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development tonight could be more widespread than currently forecast...and timing may vary slightly. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/SL NEAR TERM...SL/26 SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...26

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