Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280248 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1048 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low brings unsettled weather to the area Wednesday and remains in the area through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1045 PM Tuesday... Cool and dry night tonight with dew points in the 30s. Such low dew points will make it difficult to get fog outside of river valleys. In fact, temperatures may sink into the upper 30s in our higher mountain locations making frost a possibility. At this time do not think it will be quite cold enough, but it will be something to watch overnight. A closed upper level low will move over the CWA Wednesday. This low will bring unsettled weather to the area mainly in the form of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... As has been advertised over the past few days...our weather will be dictated by an anomalous deep upper low dropping south from the Great Lakes. This upper low gradually becomes cutoff by Friday over KY. Rounds of shra and even tsra can be expected thru the period...enhanced by diurnally driven instability amid steep low level lapse rates. Timing these spokes of energy is challenging but enough model agreement for some detail in the POP grids exists. It appears greatest chances for precip will be across the northern half of the CWA and concentrated in the Thursday and Friday time frame. All in all a much welcomed pattern that should give many some beneficial rain. Temps thru the period will run several degrees below average for day time highs...which is quite the reversal over the last several weeks. In fact...some areas in NE KY and W WV may struggle to reach the 60 degree mark Thursday and Friday given the proximity to the significant cold pool and expected shra. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... The pesky upper low will gradually track north over the weekend...with less of an influence on the sensible weather as the days progress. This will result in a dry pattern taking hold again with temperatures moderating to normal and eventually above normal. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1045 PM Tuesday... Widespread VFR conditions. IFR fog possible, but fog should be constrained to river valleys tonight. Quite impressed with the rapid cool down and subsequent dew point jump of 10 degrees over the last few hours, so may need to watch for more widespread fog. Wednesday should be VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of any fog overnight may be more widespread if temps drop far enough and dew points keep jumping. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/28/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MPK/30 AVIATION...JW

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