Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 052019 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W. FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MIXES OUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP. THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT. AFTER 18Z MONDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016- 018-024>030-033>040-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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