Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261030 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 630 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM UPDATE... LINE ON CONVECTION WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LINE IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO POSE TOO MUCH OF A THREAT...MAINLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND A WIND GUST. HRRR IS NOT LATCHING ONTO THE FEATURE VERY WELL. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE YET...SO BELIEVE IT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE MTNS. MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT SINKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS WITH 1000+ J/KG CAPE...35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND 250 M2/S2 OF SRH COULD PRODUCE A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL/WIND. SPC HAS US MARGINALLY RISKED WHICH SEEMS LIKE A FAIR ASSESSMENT. THE FRONT LAYS OUT TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP INCLEMENT WEATHER AROUND THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN...PROVIDING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF VARIOUS FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY. WILL ALSO KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD FOR CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING HOLD. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST DIMINISHES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SYSTEM OUT TO OUR WEST, BUT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS DIFFER. THE GFS BRINGS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. IN ANY CASE THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. WITH THIS SCENARIO, INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND KEPT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AROUND 30 KT OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET SNEAKS IN WITH LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLED. VFR THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD BE MORE THAN EXPECTED. IFR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY IN WAKE OF FRONT AS DEEP LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H M M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CEILINGS MAY ALSO FORM WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JW

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