Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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459 FXUS61 KRLX 090534 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1234 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1230 AM Friday... Cold weather has settled into the middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians. As an upper level trough passes today, expecting scattered flurries or snow showers across the lowlands with no accumulation. Snow will be a bit heavier across the northern mountainous counties of WV, where 1-3 inches is expected. Heights begin to rise again across the west this afternoon, which should start to break up the clouds. Surface high pressure begins nosing in late tonight, shutting down any lingering mountain snow showers. A relatively stiff breeze tonight into Friday will create wind chill values in the 10s and 20s across the lowlands, with the highest ridges of the mountains dipping a few degrees below zero for the wind chill. Used a blend of ECMWF MOS and previous forecast for temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Thursday... Flurries and snow showers should be confined to the northern mountains Friday night with a lingering strato/stratocu deck holding firm elsewhere. This should keep overnight lows up a bit from what MOS guidance is suggesting...though still quite cold. The stratocu will erode from southwest to northeast on Saturday with sunshine becoming more prevalent across the region. Temps will still be cold though, with only a slight improvement from Friday. Attention then turns to Sunday, where models are beginning to converge on a synoptic solution regarding the next system. A surface low will eject out of the Southern Plains Sunday with a developing warm front extending pretty far to the northeast, into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level impulse zipping through the increasing zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic lift across the Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Where this warm front sets up will ultimately determine the extent of wintry precip over the area. There is some consensus on this staying just north of the area, perhaps clipping portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia zones with some light snow later Sunday before turning to rain overnight into Monday. As such have some minor accumulations coded up for those locales. This is still a low confidence forecast despite an emerging consensus, primarily due to how close the warm front will be and the extent of WAA from the south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Thursday... The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Friday... Stratus deck beginning to lower, and expect all TAF sites to drop into MVFR and remain there into midday. Lower ceilings -- into IFR -- expected in the mountains. Included some snow showers in all TAFS -- although outside of EKN probably not much more than flurries. Clouds will gradually lift and break up from the SW through the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/09/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L M L L L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L H L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.