Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 300616
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
216 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Weak cool front crosses today. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid
week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and cooler air.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 pm update...Showers and thunderstorms out ahead of a cold
front are starting to push into the Ohio Valley. Expecting this
line to follow instability axis and head southeastward through
Jackson County Ohio and then into Gallia County over the next one
to two hours. The cells will continue to weaken and latest meso
guidance has the line fizzle out shortly after passing the Ohio
Valley. I have updated PoP to reflect this trend over the next few
730 pm update...Skies are clearing to the west so I went ahead and
updated sky cover based on current satellite and trends.
545 pm update...Forecast remains mostly on track. Just made minor
changes to temperatures based on current observations and trends.
Also went ahead and updated PoP based on current precipitation
coverage on RADAR.
Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from
tropical depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous
counties...and scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of
southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the
moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the
ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms
across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy
downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western
zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie.
Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue
tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV
counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at
18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be
rather limited due to the late arrival of the front.
Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on
Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist
across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front.
Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this
point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across
the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is
possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled
out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Remnants of tropical storm Bonnie is expected to be over the
Carolinas by Tuesday 12z. Meanwhile, a cool front with limited
moisture approaches from the northwest. The area will be under the
influence of a small high pressure maintaining dry weather until
Tuesday night. Small chance for showers appears along the
mountains as moisture from the tropical system gets squeeze across
the front crosses to the south by 12z Wednesday. The diurnal
heating and near calm flow will keep low chance for showers or
storms Wednesday and Wednesday night along the mountains.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.
Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.
Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday...
Til 12Z Monday. Quite variable conditions. Showers and isolated
thunder will be confined to northeast Kentucky...extreme southeast
Ohio and far southwest WV...affecting HTS before dissipating
around 09z. Because of the showers or variable cloud cover...look
for lifr fog to affect all the major terminals overnight except at BKW.
Most of the fog will be river valley fog.
After 12z...fog mixes out by 14z. Cold front crossing the area
during the day may combine with diurnal heating to generate a few
showers or perhaps a thunderstorm after 16z. These will be east
of the Ohio river and not enough coverage to go with more than
VCTS in CRW...CKB...EKN...BKW. Otherwise...VFR sct-bkn 4000-6000
feet agl outside of any convection. light and variable winds will
become northwest behind the front at 5 to 8 kts.
After 00Z basically vfr mostly clear. Any fog redevelopment will
likely be after 06z. Winds will again drop off with loss of
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low overnight. Medium Monday.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areal coverage and intensity of fog this
morning may vary due to any showers or cloud cover.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/30/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.