Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210719 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A CANOPY OF CIRRUS WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STILL...BELIEVE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER DAY TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OFF TO W CURRENTLY...WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THINKING FOR TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FROM DECAYING CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS W KY...BUT RIDES IN ON LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY S HALF OF CWA...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND PERHAPS THUNDER TO ROLL IN AFTER 09Z FROM W TO E...ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL ACTION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUE TO ROLL HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE A CANOPY OF CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT. BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS KY AND INTO S WV BY END OF TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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