Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251016 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 616 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE. FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON EITHER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST CREATING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED DURING THE DAY...AND IN MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS SUCH AS AT KEKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. .AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...SL

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