Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170744 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 244 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure system approaches today/tonight. High pressure Sunday. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 240 AM Saturday... Surface wave moves across southern coalfields today and tonight. Highest QPF associated with this feature generally confined south and west of KCRW-KBKW line. Soil conditions remain quite saturated, and flood watch warranted for southwest Virginia counties. At surface and aloft we will see a decent wedge of warm air work its way up through central West Virginia, with some cold air damming occurring across eastern mountains. Profiles suggest enough cold air in place up through mid levels, in wake of recent frontal passage will be enough for general wintry mix with generally all snow across higher terrain, with warm air wedge remaining west of the mountains. Will likely see a wide range of snow amounts, with some areas even seeing brief period of freezing rain and sleet, and liquid precipitation mixed in at times. Thus, snow accumulation confidence quite low, and only brought in higher amounts, ie greater then 4 inches over the highest terrain. Used consensus of models for temperature forecast and blended these back in to inherited forecast, resulting in little change to current forecasted trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Friday... Wintry mix to eventually snow will continue in the Northern Mountains through early Sunday morning. An additional inch of snow will be possible, but confidence is low still on possible icing as latest forecast soundings support more of a snow/sleet mix. If there is a period of freezing rain Saturday night, ice accumulations will be less than a tenth of an inch. High pressure moves through Sunday, with any lingering precipitation tapering off early before sunrise. Overall, it will be mostly dry through the day with warm air advection starting to pour into the area once again. This will help temps climb back into the 50s through the day. Rainfall chances will increase again overnight with the passing of a warm front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... Warm front crossing the area into Monday morning and rain is expected once again. However, models are now in much better agreement, keeping heavier rainfall off to our west. Very warm and dry conditions expected now for Tuesday, but showers may start to enter SE Ohio by early Tuesday evening. Temperatures will feel a lot like summer, with highs possibly topping 80 degrees for much of the Southern Forecast Area. Other than some slight timing differences, models bring our next chance for rain mid week as a cold front passes Wednesday into Thursday. Once again we will have to watch for the possibility of flooding, as really any rainfall at this point looks problematic. This will be especially true if the front stalls over the area through the end of the week, as some guidance is now suggesting. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1220 AM Saturday... Weak cold air advection taking place over moisture laden surface. This leads to generally MVFR conditions with isolated IFR through early Saturday. Gradients strong enough to mostly keep conditions as a stratcu deck, the exception being mountain sites. High pressure passes tonight and another low pressure system moves in for Saturday. Will see recovery to VFR conditions Saturday morning. However, precipitation will be moving in with widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility values with southwesterly flow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low in eastern mountains. Medium elsewhere. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Clearing and subsequent fog formation overnight may vary. Onset of deteriorating conditions in rain Saturday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/17/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Sunday for WVZ522>524-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ/TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...KMC

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