Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232325 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 725 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday. A much stronger cold front will arrive late Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 720 PM Friday... Only minimal changes made to previous forecast. Biggest change was to take chance of showers out of Ohio and Kentucky counties...and then went with isolated wording across WV. Best chance of seeing an isolated shower POP up in heating Saturday will be across the northern mountainous counties...but even there most areas will remain dry. As of 100 PM Friday... A weak cold front will move southward into the area late tonight and Saturday. Moisture and dynamics are limited with the front...so showers only possible during the daytime heating hours on Saturday. Will continue to go above MOS guidance south of the cold front on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1225 PM Friday... A weak cold front will sag and stall over the southern portion of the area and become non-existent. Mostly clouds will be associated with it. Only difference will be the cooler air behind it will filter in for the weekend. The next cold front is expected to move into the area by late in the afternoon on Monday and continue to cross the area Monday night. Moisture is lacking and should only see convection with the front as it passes. Temps will be noticeably cooler throughout. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12:25 pm Friday... Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it. Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures are expected as well. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 720 PM Friday... A weak cold front will approach from the north tonight. This should keep some mid and high clouds in place and limit fog formation for most. Did include some IFR fog at EKN. Fog should not linger much past 12Z. Cannot rule out an isolated shower Saturday, mainly across the northern mountains, but probabilities too low to include in EKN TAF right now. Could also get brief MVFR ceilings across the northern TAF sites as the front sinks through...but forecast soundings generally indicate better chance of a broken layer is above 3kft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog late tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Morning valley fog possible into next week. Low stratus also possible Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...MZ

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