Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150908 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 508 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, and even into next week, with warm and slightly more humid air. Afternoon thundershowers possible across the mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 500 AM Friday... A foggy night in general for the area under the influence of weak high pressure and low-flow. An area-wide SPS has been issued to address hazardous driving conditions for the morning commute due to low visibilities. In general, the current regime will persist through the period. A brief mid-level weakness will pass through Friday - this combined with the afternoon heating and abundant low-level moisture supports slight chance PoPs through central portions of the CWA in addition to chance PoPs in the mountains for the afternoon on Friday. Due to likelihood of afternoon cloud cover, opted to drop afternoon temperatures by a degree or so from the previous forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... Generally looking at high pressure at the surface with a warming trend through the weekend. Still have enough moisture across the mountains to pop some showers or thunderstorms during each afternoon, so maintained slight chance to chance POPs across the higher elevation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... Upper level ridge in place for most of the long term. Current indications are that tropical system Jose will pass far enough to our east Monday night into Tuesday night to keep impacts out of the forecast area. Still...have some upper level impulses moving through the ridge, which will bring at least a low chance of diurnally driven showers to the region. Used a blend of consensus and WPC guidance for POPs. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 500 AM Friday... LIFR/VLIFR has settled in for the most part across the area, although passing clouds, especially toward the south, are still occasionally improving conditions to IFR making for a fickle forecast this morning. Guidance suggests gradual improvement in vsby and cigs during the hours roughly between 13Z and 16Z as fog dissipates. Low cigs anticipated during initial hour or so of this time frame as fog lifts into stratus and eventually to stratocu. Scattered decks are expected this afternoon after fog/stratus lifts out. Similar conditions are expected Friday night as has been experienced this morning...expect fog and/or low stratus to put TAF sites to IFR or worse through the overnight hours. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High confidence in LIFR/VLIFR conditions for most sites...though low confidence on persistence with clouds in the area. High confidence in afternoon VFR. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Passing clouds briefly bring cigs and vsbys up to MVFR/VFR conditions overnight. Cigs could suffer during AM if stratocu struggles to scatter out. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M L L H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L M L L M M M H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M L M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M L M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L M L M M M M H L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in morning river valley fog through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MC SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MC

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