Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261617 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1217 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. Several upper level disturbances pass next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1218 PM Friday... Temperatures have warmed up faster than expected. In addition...dewpoint temperatures have not really started to mix out. So...have tweaked both to reflect current and expected conditions. These tweaks push Heat Indices to upper 90s to near 100 degrees across portions of the lowland counties. Have issued an SPS to highlight these hot and humid conditions. Otherwise...no real changes anticipated. Previous discussion... As of 630 AM Friday... Quiet weather on tap, with upper level high centered over the Central Appalachians. Models trying to show a chance of an isolated t-shower this afternoon...but with the upper high right over us opted to keep POPs below 15. Remaining on the humid side, with dewpoints struggling to drop below 70 across the lowlands. Used a blend of bias-corrected ECMWF MOS and bias- corrected MAV for lows, and a mixture of the National Blend and bias-corrected SREF for todays high. Overall this resulted in only very minor changes to previous forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As 220 AM Friday... The area remains under an upper level ridge through the weekend. There may be enough moisture to pop an afternoon shower/thunderstorm in the mountains Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...moisture increases a bit and can not rule out afternoon or evening convection at any location...but chances still remain low. Deeper moisture arrives on Monday so increased afternoon pops into the high chance category. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As 330 PM Thursday... Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward towards the US mainland, however, quite a bit of model uncertainty so track of system is not well defined. Each subsequent run has been moving the system eastward posing less of a threat to our area. Flow turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge as it flattens. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 650 AM Friday... 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday... Some patchy fog has developed, but should dissipate quickly over the next hour. Do expect some 2-3kft clouds to pop up this morning once mixing kicks in...but should be scattered. Otherwise some mid level cumulus today before becoming mostly clear again tonight. Relatively low confidence on fog potential tonight, but in similar pattern as last night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...JSH/MZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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