Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240721 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 321 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front crossing during the early morning, with gusty winds in the mountains and maybe an isolated shower. High pressure mid week. An organized system crosses late in the week.
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As of 315 AM Monday... Cold front currently just north of West Virginia across Southern PA. Although this front does not have much in the way of precipitation it is producing decent winds out ahead of it in the mountains. Have seen gusts this morning of 40 to 45 mph and this will likely last about another 3 to 4 hours. Then winds will decrease at daybreak as low level jet moves to our east. There may be a few gusts at the higher elevations that meet advisory criteria, but due to the isolated coverage and minimal impacts the winds would have in those areas, I decided to hold off on a wind advisory this morning. It is also possible that we may see an isolated shower with upslope northwest flow through early this afternoon with the front. The front exits by this afternoon with high pressure moving in. Skies will clear and with ridge building overhead and we should see winds decouple overnight in the valleys. This will make for good radiational cooling and frost will be possible overnight in sheltered valleys. Still not sure however if we will fog out first, so will hold off on issuing any frost headlines at this time, but one may be needed with the afternoon forecast package.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday... High pressure builds overhead Monday night and will make for a clear and chilly night with frost possible across the forecast area. It is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the sheltered mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... An upper trough drives a cold front through the region Thursday. Models coming into agreement on QPF amounts with generally a half an inch or less expected. By the time most of the QPF has exited to the east, the ECMWF drops a colder air mass into the area which could spark some snow showers in the mountains. Flow becomes more zonal and brings impulses that will maintain an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Monday... Low Level Wind Shear conditions expected through the early morning hours out ahead of an approaching cold front. With model guidance across Northern West Virginia indicating winds at 3K to 4K feet near 50 knots. Current RADAR returns in Charleston indicate 35 to 45 knots between 2K to 3K feet. Although the boundary layer is well mixed and some gusts are making it to the surface, even with surface speeds of 20 to 30 knots we still get a wind shear magnitude of 30 knots. Have added LLWS to all sites until about conditions will ease up after the front comes through this morning. The front could also bring MVFR ceilings across northern terminals. Winds will shift to the west then northwest as the front passes. Conditions will improve to mostly clear skies just about everywhere by this afternoon. With predominantly clear skies tonight and decreasing winds we could see valley fog develop, but have left it out of the 06Z TAFs for now as onset may be between 06Z to 12Z tomorrow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of when low level wind shear ends may be plus or minus an hour or two. Could see an isolated shower at EKN early this morning with MVFR ceilings possible for a short period. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.