-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 211732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM AREA...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
FLOW AND MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THURSDAY.
DRIER ON FRIDAY. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RADAR INDICATES SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION REMAINING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE STORMS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...FEW CLOUDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
WHILE MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LOCATED IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO HAVE LIGHT
FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE EXPECTED WEATHER ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESEMBLE THAT FROM TODAY.
DENSE FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THERE MAY BE MORE STORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO FORECASTED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NOT SURE
IF I WANT TO GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE...BUT DID BUMP FORECASTED
HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM TODAY...CONTINUES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 700 MB FLOW STILL 5 TO 10 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 21Z
TUESDAY.

THE WET GROUND MAY HINDER SOME 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
YET...WHAT WIND THERE IS...MAY BE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES.

BEFORE WE START LOOKING WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WE
NEED TO LOOK SOUTH...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK 500 MB CUT OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  00Z GFS WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK N AND NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  DID NOT
JUMP ON THAT SOLUTION YET.  YET...DID INCREASE POPS AND CLOUDS A BIT
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LINGER SOME 30
TO 20 POPS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...TRIED TO HOLD THE WESTERN LOWLANDS
NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...00Z NAM WAS THE FASTEST WITH FIRST ROUNDS OF
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  AS A RESULT...ITS MOS
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A GOOD BIT LOWER.  DID NOT GO THAT FAST.  HAVE
SOME LIKELY POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 20 TO 21Z
WEDNESDAY...SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AGREE WITH SPC AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IN TERMS OF SEVERITY OF
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT FOR DAY 3.  YET...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT. STEERING FLOW INCREASING TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS ON NAM...GFS WEAKER
IN MID LEVELS. WE STILL HAVE NO HAZARD IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.


STILL HAVE SURFACE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 00Z NAM
WAS AGAIN THE FASTEST CLEARING FROM NNW TO SSE.  DID NOT GO THAT
FAST. HELD ONTO POST FRONTAL CLOUDS THROUGH MOST THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
TIL NEAR DAWN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPULATED GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. 5H
TROUGH SLIDES EAST...WHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE AND AREA OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...WITH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ON
FRIDAY AND SATUDAY. A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY...AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE
IN THE PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY.

NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN BY
03Z-06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FOR THE LOWLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF REDUCED VIS IN THOSE AREAS.

THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND COVERAGE MAY
VARY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT.  OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JSH