Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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359 FXUS61 KRLX 211755 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1255 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday through the end of the week. Cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1255 PM Tuesday... Winds will be gusty at times into this evening out ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. A weak northern stream short wave and associated surface cold front pushes through the area late tonight. Not a whole lot of moisture with the front, but we will see an in clouds and mostly northern areas will have a chance for a shower. Behind the front it is likely that we will see a brief transition to upslope snow showers in the mountains. Very little if any accumulation is expected through noon tomorrow as high pressure moves in fairly quickly behind the front and cuts things off. Much cooler tomorrow as high temperatures will run almost 20 degrees cooler than they were today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Light rain and snow showers will taper off as the morning progresses on Wednesday, with no additional accumulations expected. High pressure, with cooler, but dry weather will take hold for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with temperatures topping out in the 40s to 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Another progressive system will affect the region late Friday night into the weekend. Rain and snow showers are expected to develop, particularly across the north, as a cold front sweeps across the region. After a brief lull in the precipitation later in the day Saturday, outside of upslope rain and snow showers across the mountains, a reinforcing short wave will bring another round of precipitation for Sunday, along with an additional shot of cooler air. Light accumulations are expected across the mountainous counties. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 AM Tuesday... VFR conditions through today and then MVFR ceilings will be possible overnight as a cold front pushes through. This front will bring a chance for rain and snow showers across the north and mountains, with only brief restrictions possible due to the lack of moisture with the front. High pressure builds back into the area tomorrow and conditions should improve again late in the TAF period. Gusty winds everywhere will persist into this evening and then only stronger gusts in the higher elevations after 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu could vary late today and tonight. BKW and EKN ceilings could drop to near IFR overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/AB NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.