-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1254 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF FLURRIES...OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO EXPECTING A
BRIEF PEAK OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS WAVE...BUT WILL
FILL BACK IN WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES. HAVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN WV AND THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MEET
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLD GROUND IN PLACE. WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF WARM AIR SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...THAT MOST AREAS...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL
START OUT AS RAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLY STARTING IN PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY PULLING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THAT MEANS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE COLDER AIR LAGS CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WAITING UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR OVERTURNING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING ANY UPSLOPE.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ON TUESDAY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOTS OF 700 MB LIFT. THIS TIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE.  IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV GENERALLY 20Z THROUGH
00Z AS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
HOWEVER...WILL FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS.

-SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY AFTER 03Z...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WV.
THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN WV AFTER 14Z SUNDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND WV MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
AND IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/JW
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL