-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 232325
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
725 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday. A much stronger
cold front will arrive late Monday or Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

Only minimal changes made to previous forecast. Biggest change was
to take chance of showers out of Ohio and Kentucky counties...and
then went with isolated wording across WV. Best chance of seeing
an isolated shower POP up in heating Saturday will be across the
northern mountainous counties...but even there most areas will
remain dry.

As of 100 PM Friday...

A weak cold front will move southward into the area late tonight and
Saturday. Moisture and dynamics are limited with the front...so
showers only possible during the daytime heating hours on Saturday.
Will continue to go above MOS guidance south of the cold front on
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Friday...

A weak cold front will sag and stall over the southern portion of
the area and become non-existent. Mostly clouds will be
associated with it. Only difference will be the cooler air behind
it will filter in for the weekend. The next cold front is expected
to move into the area by late in the afternoon on Monday and
continue to cross the area Monday night. Moisture is lacking and
should only see convection with the front as it passes. Temps will
be noticeably cooler throughout.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12:25 pm Friday...

Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it.
Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high
pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary
trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of
the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high
pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and
for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures
are expected as well.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

A weak cold front will approach from the north tonight. This
should keep some mid and high clouds in place and limit fog
formation for most. Did include some IFR fog at EKN. Fog should
not linger much past 12Z. Cannot rule out an isolated shower
Saturday, mainly across the northern mountains, but probabilities
too low to include in EKN TAF right now. Could also get brief MVFR
ceilings across the northern TAF sites as the front sinks
through...but forecast soundings generally indicate better chance
of a broken layer is above 3kft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog late tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Morning valley fog possible into next week. Low stratus also
possible Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...MZ