Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 052034 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 334 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TURNING COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO DECIDED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...GIVING US WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR A GREATER PART OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NICE WX REGIME WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD AND SNOWY PERIOD NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN THE SHOWERY PRECIP BEFORE THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...INDICATE PRECIP TYPE CONUNDRUMS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BL...PRIMARILY BELOW 2 KFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A MAINLY LIQUID PHASE WITH FROPA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS RISING IN THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. TRIED TO WORK THE HOURLY TEMPS USING A WETBULB EFFECT GIVEN THE GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THE FRONT TO WORK ON. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW AS THE FRONT CROSSES ON MONDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. AT THIS POINT NOT LOOKING AT ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY ASIDE FROM A 1 TO 3 INCH COATING ABOVE 2 KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOW TO COOL HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO INITIAL SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE INITIAL LOBE AROUND THE BROAD TROF SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND MAY HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF. MAY LEAD TO SOME ADVISORIES...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE...CONSIDERING 12 HOUR CRITERIA... MARGINAL. SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME. POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEM MAY STREAK SE ON DAY 7...BUT FOR NOW...WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTH. SO DRY ON THURSDAY. IN THE PAST 24 HRS...THE GFS CERTAINLY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR. 12Z GFS TODAY MUCH SLOWER BRINGING THE MINUS 10C 850 MB TEMP...NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THINK 12Z GFS MAY HAVE BACKED OFF TOO MUCH. SO TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING JUST SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY EVEN BROKEN CLOUDS...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: POSSIBLE BROKEN CEILINGS TOMORROW...BUT IF CEILINGS WERE TO OCCUR THEY WILL STILL REMAIN VFR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MPK/30 NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MPK

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