-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 150908
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
508 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, and even into next
week, with warm and slightly more humid air. Afternoon
thundershowers possible across the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 500 AM Friday...

A foggy night in general for the area under the influence of
weak high pressure and low-flow. An area-wide SPS has been
issued to address hazardous driving conditions for the morning
commute due to low visibilities. In general, the current regime
will persist through the period. A brief mid-level weakness
will pass through Friday - this combined with the afternoon
heating and abundant low-level moisture supports slight chance
PoPs through central portions of the CWA in addition to chance
PoPs in the mountains for the afternoon on Friday. Due to
likelihood of afternoon cloud cover, opted to drop afternoon
temperatures by a degree or so from the previous forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Generally looking at high pressure at the surface with a
warming trend through the weekend. Still have enough moisture
across the mountains to pop some showers or thunderstorms during
each afternoon, so maintained slight chance to chance POPs
across the higher elevation.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Upper level ridge in place for most of the long term. Current
indications are that tropical system Jose will pass far enough
to our east Monday night into Tuesday night to keep impacts out
of the forecast area. Still...have some upper level impulses
moving through the ridge, which will bring at least a low chance
of diurnally driven showers to the region. Used a blend of
consensus and WPC guidance for POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 500 AM Friday...

LIFR/VLIFR has settled in for the most part across the area,
although passing clouds, especially toward the south, are still
occasionally improving conditions to IFR making for a fickle
forecast this morning. Guidance suggests gradual improvement in
vsby and cigs during the hours roughly between 13Z and 16Z as
fog dissipates. Low cigs anticipated during initial hour or so
of this time frame as fog lifts into stratus and eventually to
stratocu.

Scattered decks are expected this afternoon after fog/stratus
lifts out. Similar conditions are expected Friday night as has
been experienced this morning...expect fog and/or low stratus to
put TAF sites to IFR or worse through the overnight hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High confidence in LIFR/VLIFR conditions
for most sites...though low confidence on persistence with
clouds in the area. High confidence in afternoon VFR.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Passing clouds briefly bring cigs and vsbys
up to MVFR/VFR conditions overnight. Cigs could suffer during AM
if stratocu struggles to scatter out.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 09/15/17
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    L

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in morning river valley fog through the weekend.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC
NEAR TERM...MC
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MC