-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071038
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
538 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST PROVIDING A STRONG LATE
WINTER STORM OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THAT
PRECIPITATION IS RAIN...BUT WINTRY CONDITIONS DO LIE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION/SNOW IS NOT MAKING IT INTO
BLF AT THIS TIME...WITH RADAR IMAGERY INCONCLUSIVE IN THE RNK
PORTION OF WEST VIRGINIA. WAS FORCED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION THERE...LET ALONE MEASURABLE.

IN THE MEANTIME...JUST DEALING WITH THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM. OHIO RIVER COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR JUST AFTER
DAWN...WITH THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO FOLLOW IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH CIRRUS
INFILTRATING ONCE AGAIN BY DAWN WITH A VERY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
APPROACHING.

MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LOWLANDS IN THE MID 50S TODAY...AND
MOUNTAINS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BEING DOMINANT. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN AMPLIFYING THIS FEATURE AND SLOWING
IT SOMEWHAT...SO THE FASTER AND FLATTER GFS WAS USED FOR DETAILS.
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW...SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW
ENDING QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY. ONLY A BRIEF AND MINOR COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...WITH DRY WEATHER BUT A
WARMING TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOWS A CONTINUED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
EURO AND NOAM MODELS. EACH IS CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES IN THE THE
EURO SHOWS A MAJOR STORM DUE TO PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE NOAM MODELS SHOW LITTLE PHASING WITH A WEAKER AND
FASTER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WILL TEND TO LEAN WITH
WPC AND THE EURO CAMP...BUT PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM TIL MAYBE THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IMPROVES AFTER 15Z
TODAY. WILL BE RIDING THE CURRENT OBSERVATION OF IFR CEILINGS
UNTIL THIS TIME WITH WIND GUSTS CONTINUING TO THE 20KT RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...CIRRUS WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. ONCE THE BKW
CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEPART
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT. MORE CIRRUS MOVES
IN AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...TRM/JMV
AVIATION...26