


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --334 FXUS61 KRLX 080714 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 314 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Showers and thunderstorms remain possible the rest of the week, as a front wobbles in and out of the region. Some storms may contain locally very heavy rainfall.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 200 AM Tuesday... Showers and thunderstorms have effectively ended across the CWA for the time being, but stuck with the NBM grids that keep some slight chance to chance POPs across much of the area to account for potential stray shower chances through the night. It appears that the frontal boundary may sink a bit further into the CWA than previously expected, so by the time afternoon and evening convection gets firing, the most widespread storm coverage may be limited to along and east of the mountains, and the far southern coalfields. So compared to the Tuesday forecast from 24 hours prior, we now show Likely POPs being limited to those areas, but most of the area along and southeast of the Ohio River could see at least scattered storms today. Our colleagues at the Weather Prediction Center put that same area south and east of the Ohio River in a Marginal excessive rainfall risk. While the greatest risk will likely southern and eastern parts of the CWA with the most expected storm coverage, the potential for heavy rain exists everywhere, and any training of storms could lead to some flash flooding. With forecast soundings showing precipitable water over the area in the 1.5-2.0 inch range (and maybe a bit higher in spots), any storm could produce torrential downpours. The activity should diminish after sunset, but like this past night, a stray shower can`t be ruled out given the persistently warm and humid conditions overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 230 AM Tuesday... As the front remains over or just north and northwest of the CWA, the pattern will remain the same, with scattered to numerous showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours, and a relative minimum in activity overnight into the morning. There are still indications that a wave moving along the front on Thursday may enhance storm coverage some that day, but for both Wednesday and Thursday, the highest POPs are once again over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA. As the air remains quite juicy over the region, with similar PWAT values expected as today, the threat for heavy downpours and localized flash flooding will persist. With lowland highs in the mid to upper 80s both days and ample low-level moisture, maximum heat index values in the low to mid 90s are expected.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 245 AM Tuesday... It will feel like we`re stuck in a sci-fi movie time loop, as there are no indications that the front will push through the area at least through the weekend. Thus our daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, with the finer details of any waves on the front or upper-level disturbances causing increased storm coverage to be ironed out as we go through the week. The air looks to remain quite humid up through the column, with similar PWATs persisting into the weekend. Air temps and heat index values may both creep upward to end the week. Previously it was looking like there was a decent chance that the front may push through early next week and bring at least a brief break in the humid and stormy weather. However, the latest guidance calls that into question, and it may very well end up that the front simply washes out without ever crossing the area and bringing us even modest relief. That said, there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the pattern evolution early next week, so we will see which way the models will start to cluster as we go forward.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 130 AM Tuesday... Shower activity has largely ended across the CWA, though we can`t rule out a stray shower overnight given the juicy nature of the air over the region, especially PKB and CKB. Gentle to moderate SW-W`ly breezes will develop during the day Tuesday, with more afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. Greater storm coverage is expected the further south and east you go, so for now no thunderstorm mention was made for PKB or HTS. PROB30 -TSRA mentions were put into CRW, CKB, and EKN, with a prevailing SHRA VCTS group in the BKW TAF. Similar to today, convection should pretty quickly drop off between 00z and 04z Wed, with at best a stray shower expected tonight. Did put a bit of fog into the valleys through sunrise Tuesday, and again overnight tonight. However, kept impacts limited both times due to uncertainty on formation and coverage. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of convection may vary from the forecast. Development of fog and/or MVFR stratocumulus could vary from what is currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/08/25 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M M L L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, each day this week. Patchy IFR fog possible overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...FK