Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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669 FXUS61 KRLX 210416 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1216 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure center crossing the area pulls a cold front through the area overnight. Upper level system keeps showers going into the start of the weekend. Re-enforcing cold front Sunday Night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1215 AM Friday... Adjusted PoPs per latest radar images with the bulk of pcpn along the OH river moving slowly northeast. The rest of forecast remains on track. No more changes necessary. As of 8 PM Thursday... Forecast on track as the strongest thunderstorms exit the area. Showers will become more numerous again overnight, with lightning still possible early on. As of 130 PM Thursday... Surface boundary beginning to move again after being stalled across Central Ohio for most of the morning. This is due to a surface low making its way into Central Kentucky early this afternoon. West of this front, have dense cloud cover and fairly widespread rain. East of the front, a cumulus deck has been developing along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thus, the main feature to track through the tonight is the boundary as it slides east. This afternoon, with most of the CWA ahead of the front, we will see showers and thunderstorms moving through. Used a blend of near term, hi-res guidance to formulate POPs...with an area of likely POPs crossing CWA through this evening. Clouds have limited instability some, but combined with decent shear we should still have enough instability to drive some stronger cells capable of gusty winds. Still not real excited about these reaching severe limits, but cannot rule out and isolated bowing segment with damaging winds threat. Tonight, as the front continues east, we will se more widespread precipitation and clouds quickly lowering. Have large area of 100 POPs just behind the front, lingering into the early morning hours. In general, looking at a 1-2" rainfall event providing some relief to the parched ground. Expect a slow recovery on Friday, with low stratus and light rain/drizzle/fog lingering through much of the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, so have fairly flat temps -- and even non-diurnal at higher elevations of the northern mountains as 850mb temps continue to fall through the day. Afternoon highs will be significantly cooler than today, with most locations staying in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Thursday... High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the area from the west Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough and associated surface low/cold front move out. Rain showers also taper off from west to east Friday night in the low lands, and in the mountains Saturday morning as drier air works in. Pressure gradient between the surface low and high pressure will be tight over our area through Saturday, so the strong cold air advection and blustery northwest flow will bring temperatures down to well below normal Friday night through Saturday. Gusty winds Friday night and Saturday with temperatures in the 50s for highs Saturday will make it seem much colder, and some wind gusts in the higher elevations of the northern mountains may exceed 40 mph. Enough cold air will get into the northern mountains to change rain showers to snow showers later Friday night and Saturday morning, but with little accumulation. Sunday will already begin a rebound under high pressure and plenty of sunshine to boost temperatures back into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the dominating feature through Wednesday, except for a weak and moisture starved front dropping across the area late Sunday night and Monday morning. Except for a sprinkle in the northern mountains with the front, dry weather and near normal temperatures can be expected. Thursday will see another system approaching from the west, but with warm temperatures preceding it. Thing && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 8 PM Thursday... The strongest thunderstorms as of 8 PM were in the vicinity pf CKB and should be out of the area 01-02Z. The strongest wind gusts at or near CKB should be over, as these strong storms move northeastward, away from the area. Otherwise low pressure over the area will keep showers in the area through the night, with thunder possible mainly early on. These showers and storms will cause occasional MVFR to IFR conditions. A cold front will sweep through the area toward dawn Friday. Copious low level moisture behind the front will bring IFR fog and stratus along with light rain showers or drizzle Friday morning. Visibilities will improve to better than 6 miles for Friday midday and afternoon, but the stratus will struggle to climb above 1000 feet across the lowlands. Light and variable surface flow in the vicinity of low pressure overnight will become northwest behind the front early Friday morning, and then become gusty during the day on Friday. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft overnight will switch to moderate northwest behind the cold front first thing Friday morning, and then persist throughout the day on Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms early on. Timing of frontal passage and drop into IFR rain/stratus may well as timing of recovery Friday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR may linger in low stratus in the mountains into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM/MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.