Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 302342 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 642 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through this evening. Cooler high pressure to end the week. Weak upper level system late Sunday/Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 PM Wednesday... Updated POPs trying to capture small scale bands of precip moving through over the next several hours. Obs are a bit messy, but it looks like the cold front is just west of the Ohio River and slowly moving east. As the surface wave moves away the speed of the front should increase as it pushes through the remainder of the CWA through the evening. Reworked the weather a bit tonight, using hi res models to try to time when surface temps will start dropping below freezing across the mountains. Ended up a bit later than previous forecast with the freezing temps which points towards a wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet instead and maybe some freezing drizzle by early morning across the higher elevations. As of 200 PM Wednesday... A cold front will push through this evening, bringing an end to the rain. Cooler air moves into the area overnight. Looking at satellite, it does appear that there will be a fairly good break in the clouds behind the front. Models have some fairly large differences as to when the upslope clouds will develop in the western counties. Will go with a middle of the road solution for now. With cold air advection and low level moisture, will continue with some small upslope pops in the WV mountains late tonight and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... Will have a continuous push of low level moisture into the northeast mountains that will provide low end chances for precipitation through the bulk of the short term. As in the near term, this could become complicated due to the shallow cloud depth, temperatures below freezing at times, and crystal growth that may not occur with 850 mb temperatures struggling to get below -6C. Otherwise, high pressure will take hold of the area with zonal flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... A weak trough aloft brings the next round of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night, and another decaying system from the southern stream Monday night and Tuesday. The latest 12Z operational ECMWF depicts a weaker system than previous runs for early next week, which had been looking like a significant rain event for the area. Will wait to see if there is some run to run consistency here before dismissing a heavy rain event completely, but for now, trending towards a progressive low pressure system. Beyond Wednesday, a strong frontal system looks possible heading into the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 PM Wednesday... Cold front starting to make its way through the forecast area. Tried to time some rain with the front, although the line will be fairly thin. Have a decent break in the clouds approaching from the west. Not sure we will ever go completely clear, but did include some scattered clouds across the southwest. As colder air arrives, expect a VFR to MVFR cloud deck to develop by morning. This should stick with us much of the day, gradually lifting and breaking up from west to east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cannot rule out some visibility drops this evening in bands of rain. Timing of category changes in clouds may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H L M H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M CKB CONSISTENCY L H H M H M H H H H M L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.