Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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413 FXUS61 KRLX 281503 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1055 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1445Z...HAVE ANALYZED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM ATHENS TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA...CLARKSBURG...GRAFTON. SO A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN SAY PIT AND CRW. WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE FORECAST MODEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...EXPECT NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z AND LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING. DILEMNA IS HOW FAR SOUTH... THINKING THE HTS-CRW-BKW CORRIDOR MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS MORE ENHANCED COVERAGE. SO WILL DRAW SOME LIKELY POPS FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON NORTH TOWARD THE FRONT FOR 20Z INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING THE LONGEST ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL BE CONSIDERING A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. WE WANT TO SEE THE NEW INITIATION/CONVECTION TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT ON THE RAP...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS TOO. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV. MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING OUT OF MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES EXIST. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY VARY LATE TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26

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