Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160608 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 108 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passes through the region overnight into Tuesday. Arctic air mid week. Turning milder for the end of the week, as the arctic high exits. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 105 AM Tuesday... Updated PoPs to reflect slower arrival overnight and exodus Tuesday into Tuesday night of snow, based on latest trends and guidance. No important changes to snowfall accumulations. As of 1120 PM Monday... Quick update to slow the fall of temperatures overnight into Tuesday so that it better lines up with the passage of the cold front, per current trends and latest MOS and near term guidance. The precipitation type and snowfall amounts were minimally impacted. As of 910 PM Monday... Did some work to slow up the POPs over the next 9 hours or so, but also touched up the timing and snow amounts through the end of the snow event. No major changes to the overall totals for the entire CWA As of 130 PM Monday... Low pressure passes north of the area tonight and into the Great Lakes and continues Northeastward during the day on Tuesday. The trailing cold front with this low slowly moves through the area tonight and during the day tomorrow, bringing a band of snow with it. With a positive tilted upper trof movement of the front will be relatively slow to push through. Model QPF equates to about 1 to 3 inches across the Western lowlands of SE OH, NE KY, Western WV and SW VA. Slightly high amounts of 2 to 4 in the higher elevations of the Eastern mountains of WV. Current advisories look good for the area. Starting in the west and continuing an eastward progression through the night tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... High pressure builds at the surface from the West through the period, gradually drying us out as the upper level trough and cold front slowly move out to the East. Still have upslope/frontal snow along the WV and SW VA mountains with low- level moisture and NW flow - and some enhancement early Wednesday along the highest peaks of WV with a subtle mid-level wave advecting through the trough. Though, low- level winds turn more westerly and cut off any upslope influence by daybreak Wednesday. Gusty winds and continued cold air advection aloft produce wind chills dipping into single digits and negative single digits Wednesday morning. Temperatures steadily climb through the end of the period under warm air advection and broad ridging aloft. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM Monday... Warm air advection continues under ridging/SW flow, bringing in pleasantly warm temperatures through the end of the weekend ahead of the next system, whose high-level clouds start streaming in Saturday. A deepening upper level trough over the western US sets the stage for classic lee-side cyclogenesis, shown in all long-range operational models. Though have had to slosh PoPs somewhat due to uncertain timing, there seems to be good indication of warm-overriding rain showers Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a strong cold front with rainfall Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 105 AM Tuesday... A cold front will cross the area overnight into early Tuesday morning. A band of anafront, or behind the front, snow will lead to IFR conditions. IFR snow should reach the Ohio River 08-09Z, CKB and CRW 09-10Z, EKN around 12Z, and then finally BKW Tuesday afternoon. The snow will taper off after 8-12 hours, longer in the mountains, with improvement to MVFR and then VFR visibility 16-21Z Tuesday afternoon along the Ohio River, 21-02Z late Tuesday / early Tuesday night CRW and CKB, and 00Z-05Z Tuesday night in the mountains. MVFR stratocu will linger a few hours longer, especially in and near the mountains, with VFR conditions along the Ohio River Tuesday night. Light south southwest surface flow overnight will become light west to northwest Tuesday morning. Flow aloft will remain moderate southwest through Tuesday, and then become light southwest Tuesday night, with the front aloft well behind the surface front, a characteristic of anafronts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR to IFR in snow may vary overnight and Tuesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 01/16/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M H H H L M M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L M M M L L H L M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M L H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M L M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR in snow at times lingering into Wednesday in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ523-524. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ520>522-525-526. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ024>026-033-034-515>519. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for OHZ076- 085>087. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for OHZ066- 067-075-083-084. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ003- 004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/MC NEAR TERM...JS/TRM/26 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...TRM

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