Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211307 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 859 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead. Dry cold front late Saturday. Another cold front late Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 905 AM Wednesday... Based on temperatures on Tuesday and current guidance 850 mb temperatures and mos guidance temperatures...will raise high temperatures today in the west central counties and the coal fields a degree or two. . As of 640 AM Wednesday... High pressure remains in control of the entire area through the near term period. Some peripheral moisture from the remnants of Julia may be enough for a stray cloud or two in the eastern mountains this afternoon. Otherwise, another warm day on tap with plenty of sun and efficient radiational cooling after sundown. Fog looks likely again during the very late hours, mainly in the deeper river valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Very quiet weather with warm temperatures through the end of the work week. High pressure and upper level ridge will build through the period. This will keep us dry, and although the Autumn Equinox is Thursday, it is going to feel more like the middle of Summer. In fact high temperatures will be 10 or more degrees above normal for this time of year with upper 80s currently in the forecast for much of the region. Anomalous 500mb heights near 588 dam with upper ridge cresting overhead is about 2 standard deviations above normal. This ridge also looks to become entrenched over the Eastern U.S. by Friday and will likely not break until we are well into the Long Term forecast period. Only possible weather impacts into Saturday will be from areas of valley fog during the overnight and early morning hours each day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... A dry cold front pushes through late Saturday into Saturday night...bringing another reprieve to the above normal temperatures across the area. In the progressive synoptic scale pattern aloft...brief ridging will follow...with another trough/cold front in the late Tuesday night time frame. This will be the next chance for significant rain in this overall dry pattern for the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Wednesday... Fog is certainly not as widespread this morning as it was yesterday, but the few sites that are reporting fog are entrenched in IFR/LIFR conditions. By 13-14Z, boundary layer mixing will commence and help dissipate any fog present. VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day with a similar radiation fog pattern for the late night/early morning hours going into Thursday. Considering that, expect the possibility of IFR fog again. Exactly which sites is debatable with another instance of weak surface winds and borderline H925 flow at or either side of 20 kts per the latest NAM data. Current thinking leans heavily on persistence and will need to be tweaked through the day, with IFR possible again overnight mainly at KEKN/KCRW/KHTS. KBKW should stay clear again with MVFR possible at KCKB and KPKB. Expect this overall pattern to hold for the next few days. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except low in fog overnight into Wednesday morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Dense valley fog is possible most mornings this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/DTC NEAR TERM...RPY/DTC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...DTC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.