Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011528 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1128 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH TRIGGERING MORE STORMS. THE FRONT THEN SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1100 AM QUICK UPDATE... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ALONG THE I64 CORRIDOR FROM N KY INTO W WV BEFORE TURNING UP N WV. QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MAKING FOR A DREARY DAY THUS FAR FOR AREAS FROM HTS TO CRW TO BKW. STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND SUNSHINE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SE OH WHERE DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDE INCREASING SKY GRIDS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WV/KY ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...PERSISTING LONGEST ALONG AND S OF I64 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LLVL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH INVERSION HAS DONE ITS DIRTY WORK. REWORKED TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN TO REFLECT COOLER WX UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON MUCH OF THE STRATUS MIXING OUT LATER THIS AFTN. STILL SEEING SOME SMOKE UP HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER KY. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA S OF I64 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS NE KY...SW VA...AND THE S COAL FIELDS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPPING A HAIR FURTHER S AND BECOMING MORE ENGERGIZED WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH THETA E ADVECTION. DID ALLOW FOR THUNDER ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK GIVEN LACK OF GOOD HEATING DESPITE THE THETA E ADVECTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD FEATURES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW. TEMPERATURE AND STABILITY GRADIENT WILL FLUCTUATE IN POSITION BUT REMAIN MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A FRONT OSCILLATES OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. IT...AND UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES WILL FOCUS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE S...AS THEY CROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH THU AND FRI. PW VALUES ARE ACTUALLY PROGGED TO BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME...1.5 INCHES OR EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CAPE IS PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN ALMOST ABSENT ALTOGETHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS REFLECT THIS WITH MARGINAL RISK MAINLY S OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. MODELS AND CENTRAL GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH PEAK AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES INCLUDING THE NEAR TERM. THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT...SHOWING THE MAXIMUM AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ITS PEAK AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 5 INCHES. WILL CARRY MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. SMALL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH LOWS AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... COMBINATION OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH...INCLUDING AT SITES KPKB...KCKB...AND KEKN...AND IFR FOG AT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV. ANY FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER 13-14Z...WITH THE MVFR DECK SCATTERING OUT BY 15Z...FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND. ISOLD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER 21Z ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA...WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF STORMS. MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE CONVECTION WILL BE KBKW...KCRW AND KHTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING AFTERNOON HOURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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