-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 052110
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER WET SYSTEM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS WELL ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH. AS OF 19Z...COLD FRONT RUNS GENERALLY
FROM KYNG IN OHIO SW THROUGH KHTS AND KJKL. COLD AIR LAGGING WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT...IN FACT COULD REALLY BE A SECONDARY FRONT BACK IN
INDIANA WITH THE ARCTIC PUSH. AT ANY RATE...VERY MILD ACROSS WV AND
SW VA...AND EVEN BACK INTO SE OH AND NE KY. MAIN BAND OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOW ACROSS WESTERN WV. GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND AS IT WAS ACROSS SE OH. EXPECT SEVERAL
SURFACE WAVES TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...AND TRIED TO SHOW
THOSE WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF HIGHER POPS LIFTING NE ACROSS FORECAST
AREA. WITH COLDER AIR STILL WELL OF TO THE WEST...THINK THAT ATLEAST
FOR THE NEAR TERM PRECIP WILL BE NEARLY ALL RAIN. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE NW CWA WHERE HAVE SLEET THEN SNOW MIXING IN THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. COULD GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW MORNING
IN NW CWA AS WELL...BUT WITH WARM/WET ROADS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF
ANY ICING. AND IF THERE WERE A LIGHT COATING IT WOULD BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE THE TOPS OF CARS AND SUCH.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MET DID MUCH BETTER WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN
THE WAA...SO SIDED TOWARD THE MET FOR TOMORROWS HIGHS AS
WELL...GIVING A GOOD BUMP UP FOR OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE
THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE HANGING AROUND AND KEEPING WESTERN CWA
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GRANTED...HIGH CHANCE OF BUST ON THESE
WARMER TEMPS IF FRONT FULLY CLEARS CWA. DID NOT GO FULLY AS WARM AS
THE MET HOWEVER...SINCE DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH HELP FROM THE SUN AS
WE GOT TODAY. ALSO WARMED UP LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP
DELINEATION ACROSS SE OHIO FRIDAY EVENING...FOR NOW GOING WITH OUR
SE OHIO COUNTIES BEGINNING AS A MIX OF RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP AND
EVENTUALLY TURNING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SATURDAY...MEANWHILE OUR WV/VA COUNTIES WILL BE RAIN UNTIL LATE
NIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SAT AM AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS AND COLD AIR SURGES
IN FROM THE NORTH...BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING MOST OF WV MAY SEE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE WE BRIEFLY STABILIZE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITIONING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL
KEEP MOST OF US DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ENCROACHING
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH TOWARD
WV DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE
ENHANCED BY COMBINING WITH THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH RIDING OVER COLD AIR LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT...RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINES WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT 24-48HRS...FOR NOW WENT WITH THE RATHER LINEAR PROGRESSION
OFFERED BY A MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS...WILL SURELY EVOLVE
AND BECOME MORE COMPLICATED AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO SUNDAY...OVERALL
THE MOST PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF WV
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WATER LEVELS IN STREAMS AND SMALL
RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WHICH IS REPRESENTED BY THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO AFFECT OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTH JUST
TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA MONDAY...BEFORE SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING PRECIPITATION. AHEAD OF THE LOW...STUBBORN
COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOTED ON THE MODELS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
WEST VIRGINIAN MOUNTAINS...WITH A GOOD WARM SURGE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN ON EAST FACING SLOPES BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RAIN. AMOUNT OF QPF LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
HEAVY...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH WATER PROBLEMS CLOSELY IN ADDITION TO
CURRENT RAINFALL EVENTS. WITH STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT...POST
FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK AS POTENT AND LONG LIVED AS ONE
WOULD THINK IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE FLOW. THUS...MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF MAX PRECIP ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY/CIG. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING EXTREME
WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THIS MVFR TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD.
STILL SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE RAIN...AND COULD GET BRIEF
DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP TONIGHT...WITH IFR EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE
MVFR VISIBILITIES CONTINUE IN RAIN.

HAVE SW WINDS TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20KTS. AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES...WILL SEE WINDS GO MORE NW THEN N. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME DIVERGENCE FROM THIS GENERAL FLOW AS THEY
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THU MAY VARY. MAY NEED TEMPOS THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTIVE
ENHANCED SHOWERS PRODUCING IFR VIS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS IN RESPONSE TO
ONGOING...PROLONGED RAIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIVERS THAT ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO -- THE LITTLE SANDY INCLUDING GRAYSON...THE WEST FORK INCLUDING
CLARKSBURG...THE LITTLE KANAWHA...MUD...POCATALICO... TYGART
VALLEY...AND SYMMES CREEK. RISES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS THAT DRAIN INTO THESE LARGER...MAIN STEM WATERWAYS.

ANOTHER WET SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH
THE RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM THE CURRENT EVENT...THE
THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING REMAINS...AND EVEN INCREASES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUTOMATIC OBSERVATIONS REMAIN UNAVAILABLE FOR PARKERSBURG DUE TO AN
EQUIPMENT FAILURE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JM
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
HYDROLOGY...MZ
EQUIPMENT...MZ