-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231835
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
235 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible today, with a
risk for heavy downpours as well. A cold front crosses tonight,
and then another crosses Monday night. High pressure midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

Severe threat for much of this afternoon a bit iffy, and SPC has
cut back the threat from Slight to Marginal. Cloud cover from
earlier convection continues to hang across the area, which will
help to limit destabilization somewhat. However, models still
indicating an uptick in activity later this evening and tonight,
as upper shortwave trough digs south across the region, and
surface cold front approaches from the west.

Last night, quite a bit of precipitation from convection, with
parts of southeast Ohio, northern WV and northeast Kentucky
receiving a general 2 to 5 inches. Any additional convection
today could create additional water issues on already saturated
soils, and will keep flood watch going.

Initial frontal boundary moves through late tonight, with
precipitation gradually decreasing in coverage late. A secondary
front will cross on Monday, with isolated convection, but
overall, much drier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 235 PM Sunday...

The last gasp at any showers and thunderstorms during the overnight
hours associated with a weak front will slide through the areas
Monday night. Behind the front, high pressure will take its
place. Drier air will greet the forecast area bring small
reprieve from the muggy,stormy and hot weather on Tuesday. This
does not last long though. Some Mountain showers and
thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night as
moisture surges northward in combination with a weak shortwave.

Temperatures will be very close to climatology through this
period. High will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s
in the lowlands. The mountains will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s during the day with overnight lowers in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 235 PM Sunday...

The next cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes
Region late week. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the front. Timing will need to be monitored
as currently, models suggest moisture increases substantially by
Friday afternoon. For now, will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in late week. Should trends continue, could have heavy
rain with thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures will continue to be seasonal through late week.
Lowland highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the
60s. The mountains will feature highs in the lower 80s with lows
in the lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM Sunday...

Bulk of convection has tapered off for the time being, however,
storms will refire again, particularly after 21Z, with strong
damaging winds, and heavy downpours expected. Expect brief
MVFR and IFR conditions in vicinity of storms.

Bulk of convection will die off after 06Z, however, widespread
mvfr and local ifr cigs are possible. General clearing to VFR
after 14Z with light surface winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm coverage could be more limited
later today/tonight. MVFR and IFR cigs late tonight could be
more widespread than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    L    M    M    L    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

IFR Fog possible early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...SL