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000
FXUS61 KRLX 210630
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
230 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward on
today. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold
front approaches by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

As upper level low heads east, may still get a pop up shower
across the mountains and southern coal fields this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise looking at a dry day with plenty of
sunshine. Afternoon highs will generally be 5-10 degrees above
normal. River valley fog expected again tonight under mostly
clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 215 AM Thursday...

High pressure remains in control with mainly dry conditions,
and above normal temperatures through the weekend. An isolated
shower or storm could develop along the eastern mountains due to
diurnal heating and orographic effect. River valley fog
expected in mornings.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will remain in control at least through mid week with
dry conditions. On Thursday, a cold front reaches southeast Ohio
to spread showers and thunderstorms east across the CWA. At
this point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain
minimal.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Thursday...

Fog gradually forming early this morning and expect all TAF
sites to get in on IFR fog. The fog should gradually break up
13Z-15Z with VFR expected for the remainder of the day. Some
pop up showers are possible across the mountains and southern
coal fields. Winds will generally be light, out of the north to
northeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary. Could get
a passing shower at BKW this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 09/21/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ