Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171854 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 254 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TROUGH ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND SHOWERS THAT EXITED EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE PERSISTENT WET UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO DOMINATE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS LONG AWAITED VERY WET UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW OPENING UP AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COMPLIMENTS OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING IT ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTWARD DURING MONDAY. THUS...THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE TURNING A BIT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL MAINLY SEE MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE ACTIVITY...AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF US DOES NOT GET PICKED UP BY THIS UPPER SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER THIS WILL BE A MORE GENERAL RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION...OR CLUSTERS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO MORE WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN PATTERN...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MENTION WATER CONCERNS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE MAIN RAIN BAND SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BY LATE MORNING. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE WARM AND HUMID THIS PERIOD...FEELING MORE LIKE SUMMER. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NORTH AND WEST MONDAY WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY BE SEEN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOOKING AT A LARGELY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN A SYNOPTICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO LATE SUMMER WITH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE CHARACTERISTICS. FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE MID ATLANTIC CANNOT YIELD TO ENOUGH STABILITY TO WARRANT NO WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN WEST TO EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT/ OR TWO/ ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NOT CONVINCED...HOWEVER...THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL MAKE IT THROUGH OUR AREA. BEST DEFORMATION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR NOT OPTING FOR LIKELIES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE BEST SYNOPTIC FEATURES SPLIT THE CWA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THEME OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EURO POINTS TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RAMIFICATIONS THAT WOULD LIE OUTSIDE OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WINDOW.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY... AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT 18Z...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THRU 01Z...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT PREVAILING CEILINGS AOA 4000 FEET...EXCEPT MVFR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AFTER 01Z...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPREAD THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY 17Z. THE MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-EKN LINE...WHERE VFR CEILINGS EARLY TONIGHT WILL LOWER INTO IFR/LIFR WITH THE RAIN. NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THIS PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU 18Z.EXCEPT FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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