Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 152004 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 405 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MILDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS DIE DOWN AS WELL AND GOOD COOLING WILL PLUMMET TEMPS INTO THE 20S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS...AS H85 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN -8C TO -12C OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 50S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...A RELATIVELY NICE MID APRIL PERIOD. 925 MB FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD MAIN A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. EXPOSED RIDGES WILL BE MILDER. STILL HAVE THOSE SHELTERED AREAS NEAR FREEZING. SINCE THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL...AND TO AVOID THE DOUBLE HEADLINE WITH THE CURRENT FREEZING WARNING FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY...WILL NOT POST ANY FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM AND CMC BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE PULLING MOISTURE NNE UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. CONSENSUS WAS TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE...AND KEEP FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME 20/30 POPS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY STILL TRICKY...MAY COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH CIRRUS WE HAVE. SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...YET 850 MB TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 5C.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MAINLY FROM PKB-HTS- JKL LINE. NW WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 5-1KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR-MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...21/KTB/30 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...21

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