Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131108 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 608 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation decreases as low pressure exits to the east, with Arctic air mass in its wake. Low pressure crosses Monday into Tuesday, followed by another arctic high to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Saturday... No significant changes necessary to the inherited forecast. Precipitation at 07Z has changed to snow area wide. Moderate accumulations have been occurring across parts of southeast Ohio, with generally light accumulations, less than an inch received so far across advisory areas. Precipitation will gradually taper off later this morning, as upper shortwave trough and surface low kick off to our north and east. Could still see a brief period of upslope snow showers through late this morning, but deeper moisture will gradually erode, with this threat also ending. In addition, with strong CAA behind the front, gusty winds will continue for much of the day, along with temperatures falling for much of the morning hours, before becoming somewhat steady by late morning or early afternoon. Some peaks in the cloud cover possible as the day/evening progresses, but should overall remain relatively cloudy for much of the day. High pressure will gradually build in late tonight, with decreasing winds, and some clearing, particularly across southeast Ohio. Temperatures will be tricky late tonight, based on amount of clearing, but think single digits will be common area wide, with below zero possible in some mountainous locations. It`s also possible, that parts of southeast Ohio could go below zero tonight with snow pack, and with a greater likelihood of ideal radiational cooling setup. Have lowered overnight low temperatures everywhere for tonight, but particularly across southeast Ohio. Lastly, several area rivers, mainly across northern WV and southeast Ohio have seen strong rises overnight, and some minor flooding is occurred. A general inch to 2.5 inches of rain has fallen in the last 2 days, along with ice melt. Expect this to continue through at least this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Saturday... Arctic high pressure over the area Sunday morning, drifts away to the northeast Sunday afternoon and night. A positively tilted upper level short wave trough digs southeastward through the midwest Sunday night through Monday night. This brings warm advection, with the chance for light snow into the middle Ohio Valley Monday. Boundary layer temperatures may get high enough ahead of the system for inconsequential liquid hydrometeors south. The surface low then drags a cold front through the area Monday night, as it tracks to the north, bringing the chance for light snow area wide. With limited moisture to work with, this looks to be about a one to two inch light snowfall. Went a little under central guidance temperatures in the stable arctic air Sunday and Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 420 AM Saturday... An upper level short wave trough approaching the area in the short term, swings through the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday, taking on a more neutral tilt as it moves through the eastern CONUS long wave trough position. A surface cold front crosses first thing Tuesday morning, with upslope snow showers in and near the mountains, in ts wake, Tuesday and Tuesday night. The slight chance for snow continues across eastern portions of the area even into Wednesday. This reflects the possibility of an east coast low tracking close to the coast. A large arctic high crosses Thursday through Friday, before yielding to a southerly flow of milder air in its wake, to start the weekend. Central guidance temperatures generally accepted, except went a little lower at night, especially in the valleys. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 605 AM Saturday... Light snow showers will gradually taper off across the area from west to east, ending across southeast Ohio, northeast KY, and adjacent WV counties by 15Z, and tapering off elsewhere by 18Z. Some gradual improvement to widespread MVFR is expected, particularly after 15-18Z, with improvement to local VFR after 21Z, mainly across parts of the lowlands. Some areas will remain MVFR through at least 03Z or later. In addition, gusty northwesterly winds with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range through 12-14Z, when gusts will decrease into the teens, eventually becoming less than 10 kts after 22Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary from current forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/13/18 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H L H H L L AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in snow Monday into Wednesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ066- 067-075-076-083>087. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ102-103-105. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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