-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 152004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MILDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY
THIS EVENING...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS DIE DOWN AS WELL AND GOOD
COOLING WILL PLUMMET TEMPS INTO THE 20S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS...AS H85 TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN -8C TO -12C OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS ONLY
REBOUND INTO THE 50S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...A RELATIVELY NICE MID APRIL PERIOD.
925 MB FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD MAIN A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED
INVERSION IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.  EXPOSED RIDGES WILL BE MILDER.
STILL HAVE THOSE SHELTERED AREAS NEAR FREEZING. SINCE THOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL...AND TO AVOID THE DOUBLE HEADLINE
WITH THE CURRENT FREEZING WARNING FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY...WILL NOT POST
ANY FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z NAM AND CMC BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE PULLING MOISTURE NNE UP THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY.  CONSENSUS WAS TO BE LESS
AGGRESSIVE...AND KEEP FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.  WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME 20/30 POPS INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY STILL TRICKY...MAY COME DOWN TO HOW
MUCH CIRRUS WE HAVE.  SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...YET
850 MB TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 5C.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR
AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MAINLY FROM PKB-HTS-
JKL LINE. NW WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 5-1KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR-MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL END BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING MAY VARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...21/KTB/30
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...21