-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221508
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1108 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal
through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead. Dry cold
front late Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 845 AM Thursday...

Based on high temperatures from Wednesday and little change in the
atmosphere...increased high temperatures several degrees for this
afternoon.


As of 655 AM Thursday...

Forecast on track with another warm day today. Previous discussion
below.

As of 435 AM Thursday...

Another cool early morning for our area as high pressure keeps a
firm grip on the weather pattern. No real changes with this
package save a few cosmetic tweaks here and there to keep
forecast temps in line with observed trends. Guidance remains
slightly warm for overnight mins and a little cool for afternoon
maxes, so adjusted accordingly through the day and into tonight.

Continuing to observe more persistent cirrus in and near the
mountains that hasn`t dissipated as expected. Near term model
guidance keeps the remnants of Julia near the coastal Carolinas
through the period, so left some clouds in the sky grids through
mid morning as higher moisture pivots around the western periphery
of the closed low. Otherwise, we may see a few cumulus here and
there during peak heating this afternoon, as well as another day
of above normal temps. Leaned heavily once again on a
predominantly persistence forecast with deep mountain and river
valley fog expected again late tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1100 AM Thursday...

The only feature to track in the short term will be a back door
cold front as the upper ridge gets pinched over the region. This
boundary will slip thru later on Saturday with an isolated shra
threat over the northern mountains...otherwise this should be a
dry fropa. Temperatures on Saturday may still flirt with 90 along
and S of the I64 corridor. The greatest push of cooler air will
stay NE of the area but a good temperature gradient may still
exist from NE to SW on Sunday...along with some more clouds. As a
result...temps on Sunday should be similar to Saturday with
perhaps a tick or two lower on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1100 AM Thursday...

It still appears that any true Autumn push of air will hold off
until late week. However there is some disagreement on timing and
evolution of the northern stream early next week. The 00Z Euro is
more bullish and progressive with the northern stream compared to
the GFS which is more blocky. Will hedge toward the GFS to
maintain continuity...keeping things warm and only a small chance
for a shra/tsra early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 655 AM Thursday...

Finally able to settle into the fog pattern for this morning.
All sites except BKW now at MVFR or IFR with some vsbys bouncing
up and down between the two categories. Expect this trend to
continue through around 13Z when fog should begin to dissipate.
VFR prevails this afternoon with only a few cumulus possible and
some high cirrus in the mountains.

Tonight and into Friday morning, persistence forecast is heavily
relied on once again. Still no overall pattern change, so do
expect IFR fog again, but as usual, hard to pinpoint where and
when attm. Delayed timing a bit based on trends up to this point,
so don`t have IFR fog developing until around 09Z at the
earliest.

As of 545 AM Thursday...

Decided to overhaul most of the TAFs based on observational
trends. Sufficient boundary layer moisture has been hard to come
by, particularly at EKN, hence the conspicuous absence of fog this
morning. Removed IFR for now, but if temps fall a couple more
degrees or some local enhancement to moisture can be realized,
both of which are likely difficult to achieve, they could quickly fog
in after 10-11Z. Also, eliminated IFR for HTS. PKB/CRW have
already reached IFR and expecting CKB to follow suit shortly with
better low level moisture for these locations. All sites go VFR
by mid morning with only a few cumulus through the day. Another
shot at deep valley fog again tomorrow morning, although
confidence is low in timing/extent attm.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except low in fog overnight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Dense morning valley fog is possible into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/DTC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...DTC