-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201837
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
237 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. COLD FRONT INITIALLY TIMED TO PASS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER S/W DISTURBANCE TO FOLLOW. THIS ONE NOT AS
POTENT AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. WITH SOME HEATING AND INITIAL SUN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THINK THIS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE
STOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLIDES INTO THIS AREA WITH SOME
INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE MODELS. ANY MID LVL CAP SHOULD BE NIXED
AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES. ALSO SOME CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE
FROM SSE FLOW SHOULD HELP AS WELL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THUS...HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE C AND
ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCHC
ELSEWHERE AND ROLLING WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE GRIDS. ALSO
HAVE THUNDER IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...GIVEN BUILDING INSTABILITY PER
MODELS.

EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY GO POP FREE.
EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT AND WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW RELAXING...HIT THE DENSE FOG HARDER IN THE GRIDS. SOME
LOW STRATUS EXPECTED ON THE E SLOPES.

FOR MONDAY...KEEP POPS ALONG AND E OF I79 AND ON THE LOW SIDE.
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRYS OUT WITH MID LEVEL CAP SHOWING UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP W ZONES DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH NO TRIGGER MECHANISM. IT
WILL BE HEATING UP WITH HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FLOW AT 700 MBS AOB 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WITH A WEAK 925 MB
FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIN
CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES.  YET...LATE IN THE DAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY ACTUALLY TRY TO
CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO LEFT A 20 POP FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY S OF BECKLEY.  ON WEDNESDAY...TRIED TO HOLD THE
HTS-CRW-CKB AREA POP AOB 14 PCT LONGER. HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES...AND THEN
CHANCE POPS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE I-79
CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT
ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS
OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A
DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS
GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW
AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO.
ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THRU THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CARRIED SOME TEMPO MVFR FOR KEKN AND VCSH
FOR KBKW AND KCKB. KHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIGS IMPROVE BY 20Z
BUT MAYBE ONLY INTO MVFR. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT LESS IN WAY OF
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND WITH DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL FLOW...HIT
DENSE FG HARD TONIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY
SNEAK IN KBKW BUT KEPT IFR CIGS OUT OF THAT SITE FOR NOW.

FG WILL LIFT BY 14Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS. EXPANSIVE CU
FIELD FOR MONDAY...IN THE 4 TO 5 THSD FOOT RANGE. ISOLATED
AFTERNOONS CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DENSITY AND TIMING MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JW
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...30