-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 250716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY TONIGHT.  NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE COLD PARADE
CONTINUES WITH CLIPPERS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. OUT OF
THESE CLOUDS...VERY LIGHT PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES...PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND WEST VIRGINIA. UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE
TO THE FORECAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LEAD TO A TRACE OF ICE IF
ANY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE OHIO AND THE CNTRL WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES COULD FALL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY...AN INCH OR LESS MOST
PLACES.

COOLED TEMPS A TAD AND BROUGHT THE SNOW IN A LITTLE EARLIER BASED
ON MODEL CONSENSUS...REGARDLESS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSE TO WPC THINKING WITH POSITIVE PNA THIS PERIOD.  CLIPPER
SYSTEMS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND THEN AGAIN THU-THU NT AND SAT NT.  THE ONE JUST PRIOR
TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST MON-TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST
CLIPPER TUE NT...AND THEN SAILS ACROSS ON WED.  WARMING ALOFT WED
MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THU...IN THE SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SECOND CLIPPER.  THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A GOOD BUT
BRIEF UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT THU NT.  WHILE STILL AT A DISTANCE WHERE
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX...THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY BE MORE
INTERESTING THAN JUST A CLIPPER.

LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE CLOSE TO WPC.
THE GFS40 WAS EMPLOYED THU MORNING AND SAT MORNING...THE BETTER
RADIATIVE COOLING NTS.  THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE CREATE BUST POTENTIAL IN THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT GENERALLY 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT CIGS THRU THIS MORNING FOR
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KEKN/KCKB...WHERE 8 HUNDRED TO 1 THOUSAND
CIGS WILL HOLD. HOWEVER...EXPECT KEKN AND KCKB TO SNEAK INTO LOW
END VFR CIGS BY 18Z. AS FOR VSBY...LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME 6SM BR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY...WITH
PRECIP BREAKING OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...CLIPPING KPKB AND KCKB LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THIS EVENING AND
ORIENT ITSELF MORE INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF ACROSS WV....AS
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRAVERSES KY AND INTO W WV TOWARD END OF TAF
PERIOD. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z
WITH CIGS/VSBY LOWERING INTO IFR OR WORSE BY 06Z. SOME SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE N MOUNTAINS WITH IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS.

WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S FOR KCRW/KHTS/KEKN AND SSE FOR KBKW
IN THE WARM SECTOR. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY NE FOR KPKB/KCKB
TODAY. FLOW GENERALLY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIGS MAY STAY LOW END MVFR FOR KEKN/KCKB
INSTEAD OF IFR...BEFORE LIFTING LATER THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 01/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30