


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --463 FXUS61 KRLX 281040 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 640 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and storms prevail through the weekend amid the ongoing heat wave. Cold frontal passage Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM Saturday... Radar activity has waned within our forecast area early this morning, with the bulk of overnight convection now shifting off the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. This leaves behind pockets of river valley fog along the higher terrain where measurable rainfall occurred this past evening. Fog erosion will quickly take shape after sunrise. Another warm and muggy day will then be on tap for today with repeat opportunities for showers and storms starting this afternoon into tonight. At the surface, a cold front draped through the Upper Ohio Valley will gradually slide south and eastward throughout the day, then draping across the northern fringes of the forecast area overnight tonight into Sunday. This will serve up the best potential for convection by late this afternoon as the boundary makes eastward progress, some of which could grow strong enough to stir up damaging wind gusts and locally heavy downpours. The forecast tonight will become primarily radar driven, as late night convection could attempt to stay prevalent into early Sunday morning, according to a few hi-res model solutions in response to the nearby residency of the front. Temperatures will once again rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across the lower elevations this afternoon, with humidity levels imposing heat indices to extend back into the upper 90s. While not as oppressive in comparison to heat indices from the past several days, a few localized spots reaching the triple digits can`t necessarily be ruled out. Overall conditions, however, will preclude current notions for additional heat advisories with the latest forecast update. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 AM Saturday... For Sunday, expect less chances for shower and thunderstorm activity as weak high pressure settles in. There will be opportunity for some thunderstorm potential in the afternoon and evening with up to 2000 J/kg of MU CAPE, however with the lack of shear and upper level support the main threat will be heavy downpours which could lead to localized flooding issues. PWATs are just near 2 inches still along with long skinny CAPE and a fairly moist column. Not to mention sufficient DCAPE. Lapse rates fall off quickly by late evening and with very minimal instability to work with much of the activity should cease by late evening. For Monday, an upper level trough moves in to support more activity during the daytime. This feature will have more instability to work with than the previous day and higher PWATS and more moisture in the column. We have slightly more shear to work with so showers will be moving faster, but heavy downpours and stronger storm potential will be the main threats. There will be higher chances of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening than the previous day as the aforementioned feature supports unsettled weather and higher lapse rates. More activity will come ahead of a cold front prog to pass through Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 AM Saturday... For Tuesday, cold frontal passage will take place during the daytime. This feature could pose some hydro concerns if movement is slow as upper level steering flow is forecast to be weak. The severe threat is far out and we could have some potential if the cold front strengthens, but as of now it looks to be a relatively weak frontal boundary, but sliding through during the afternoon. Therefore, with maximum instability during the afternoon, we may have some strong to severe isolated storm potential. Thereafter, high pressure builds in for a clean break from unsettled weather going for the rest of the work week until Friday when chances begin to make an appearance. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 640 AM Saturday... Early morning fog along the higher terrain will erode quickly after the issuance of the 12Z TAF package. After a quiet few hours, another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area today amid an encroaching frontal boundary and prevailing hot and muggy weather. VCTS was included with this issuance after 16Z across all sites to account for this potential. The evening forecast becomes primarily radar driven, as ongoing convection could linger into the overnight hours with the help of the advancing front. Calm winds tonight, in conjunction with the nearby front, will pose a higher likelihood for river valley fog late tonight into Sunday morning. This will especially be the case for locations that receive measurable rainfall with activity later on today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms may vary from the forecast this afternoon and evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/28/25 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms, and early morning fog, through Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MEK