Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260725 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY. WARMER TO START THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONTS CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY. AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES ON ALL HOLLOWS EVE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AN AXIS OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT BECAME BOGGED DOWN W OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE FRONT DID MIX THROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL MIX THROUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY DAYBREAK...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND THE FOG WILL NOT BECOME ANY MORE OF A PROBLEM BEFORE IT IS MIXED OUT. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE RIDGES...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATOCU IN AND JUST W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BREAK UP BY 12Z THIS MORNING...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE ITS EASY LIKE SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD...WITH NOT SO MUCH AS A CLOUD IN THE SKY ONCE THE STRATOCU IS GONE. THE FRONT LAYS DOWN W TO E ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUD TOWARD 12Z MON. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS E OF THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD...WITH JUST A LITTLE OF THE MAV BLENDED IN FOR LOWS TONIGHT...TO BETTER ACCENT A RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION. RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY...WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME HIGHS AS WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWLANDS COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. LEANED MORE ON THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AS FAR AS TRACKING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND SET BY INHERITED FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY COLD FRONT PASSES PKB AT START OF FCST...HTS 08Z...AND THEN WILL MIX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 08-09Z. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND STIRRED UP AND PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BREAK UP TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLEAR SKY THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR FOG MAY START TO FORM IN THE TYGART VALLEY BY 06Z MON. LIGHT W TO SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE BECOMING CALM SUNDAY NIGHT. W TO NW SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG CHANGES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MVFR VSBY IN THE TYGART VALLEY TOWARD 06Z MON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/26/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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