Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141804 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 104 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure into Friday. A clipper system then passes north of the area Friday night. Weak system brings light rain Sunday and Monday. Another clipper crosses Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday... Dirty high pressure building over the area, but appears that some cold air stratus and left over lake effect clouds will become trapped under the high. With patches of clouds floating around, it leads to low confidence tonight on where clouds will be. This also makes overnight lows rather tricky. With winds becoming light, thinking there will be enough holes for temperatures to drop near dew points. A wave moves well north of the area on Friday. It will create a little moisture increase in the north in the afternoon. This could be enough for few flakes due to the cold 850 mb temperatures, so will keep some small pops. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Thursday... Weak high pressure over the area Friday morning quickly gives way to the next, and the last in the series of, weak clipper systems of late. It will track even farther north than its predecessor, crossing this morning, which was tracking farther north than its predecessors, a sign of the breaking down of the eastern U.S. long wave trough pattern. Heights build and flatten as the long wave trough lifts out. Therefore, northern mountain snow amounts Friday night are limited, and the cold air pulls out quickly on Saturday. A southern stream short wave trough gets left behind over the southwestern states, as the eastern U.S trough lifts out. It then ejects east-northeastward, as another short wave trough digs into the southwestern states. This will bring milder air, along with some light rain, across the area Sunday and Sunday night. Central guidance temperatures looked good, other than slight non diurnal warming early Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 420 AM Thursday... Weak high pressure briefly visits Monday morning, but with low level moisture remaining in place, and weak warm advection as the high exits during the day on Monday, it will remain cloudy, with the chance for light rain, or drizzle, into Monday night. A northern stream trough digs into the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday, temporarily re-establishing the pattern that breaks down over the weekend. This brings the chance for rain showers on Tuesday, which could transition to snow showers Tuesday night in the mountains, while ending elsewhere. The period ends dry, but, after a modest cool down Wednesday, milder weather takes hold for Thursday, as surface high pressure over the area Wednesday, moves east on Thursday, and an upper ridge crosses. Central guidance temperatures accepted, other than to raise lows in the mountains a bit Monday night, to support an all liquid precipitation type. This reflects above normal temperatures, except close top normal on Wednesday. The latest MEX is higher still, although that may depend upon better mixing. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Thursday... A cold advection stratus/cumulus MVFR/VFR deck will remain across the area this afternoon, gradually rising. Portions of this deck are expected to remain overnight, gradually sinking back into the MVFR range, especially in the mountains. The deck will gradually raise again on Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location of stratus deck overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Another round of snow is expected across the northern portion of the area Friday night, with IFR conditions possible in heavier snow showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.