Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150821 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 421 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers/storms tapering off from west to east today. High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... Showers ongoing across central and eastern CWA as a series of 500mb ripples move through. There is also a weak surface wave currently across central KY which will drift eastward through the early morning. 00Z NAM and recent HRRR runs had a decent depiction of the current radar, so used a blend of those for the POPs through today. Also added mention of thunder across the coal field for the next couple hours. May need to extend/expand this based on current lightning trends. Do have lightning returning late this morning into this afternoon -- mainly across the mountainous counties. Otherwise, have POPs gradually tapering off from west to east through today as a surface high moves into the Great Lakes pushing the deeper moisture south and east. Despite lots of clouds around initially, temperatures will be very close to normal values for mid August. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 420 AM Tuesday... Weak ridging should keep us dry though shower activity should increase as an approaching upper level trough arrives Friday. Best chance for organized convection would be Thursday evening with rather high PWs in the 2.5" range with dynamics on the weaker side of the spectrum. This period will need to be monitored, so will headline in the HWO. Shower activity should linger into Friday evening before decreasing overnight.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 420 AM Tuesday... By Saturday morning, showers should be relegated to the mountains with drier weather for the beginning of next week as surface high pressure builds. A mid level wave passes Sunday morning, so there may be a temporary increase in activity then.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 145 AM Tuesday... Showers ongoing along east/south of the Ohio River. Some thunder in this as well. Expect varying conditions as showers move through, with some fog and/or low stratus forming between showers. Have low confidence on timing of these changes. Fog/stratus should gradually lift after sunrise, with some lingering showers/storms mainly across WV and SW VA. High pressure to our north tonight should equal fewer clouds, with dense river valley fog expected at typical locations after midnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and visibilities could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M H L L L H M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M L M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on clouds.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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