Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 250618
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure
maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...
Tweaked sky grids for the next 6 hours. Expecting clouds from
dying MCS to cover the area tonight. Rest of forecast remains
Previous discussion below...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...
Generally quiet for the remainder of the afternoon with just some
flat cu with some cirrus thrown in for good measure.
For tonight we will be tracking a mid level feature moving across
the area. Models are by and large in agreement on any line of
shra/tsra weakening on approach. So...will continue with previous
forecast idea of chance pops and roll with coverage wording. With
this feature moving across with some clouds amid a strengthening
low level flow...dense fog should be confined to the more
sheltered mountain valleys and hollows.
This disturbance moves E of the area by midday Thursday with mid
level drying left in its wake to keep things warm and primarily
dry for the afternoon.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...
Hot and humid weather expected again for late August. Broad area
of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into
the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking
off an aftn shower or tstorm. Any severe weather should remain
north of our area though will not rule out any isolated water
issues especially near the more juicy air in Ohio.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...
Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a
tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow
turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in
this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...
06Z Thursday through 06Z Friday...
Being in the warm sector...models show southwesterly winds just
above the surface strong enough to prevent fog formation
this period. Models also show an upper disturbance driving across
our area later overnight and into Thursday morning...enough to
generate at least scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in
the now moist atmosphere...especially across the northwest
Given all this...we expect VFR conditions to prevail this period.
Look for SCT-BKN 5000-7000 feet AGL clouds remainder of the
overnight period...except lower in widely scattered to scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm...mostly across the north
through 14z. Thereafter...generally sct clouds 4000-6000 feet
AGL...except ceilings 3500-4500 feet with scattered showers and a
thunderstorms mostly in the mountains through the afternoon.
After 00z...convection in the mountains rapidly dissipate early
this evening with loss of heating...then generally SCT-BKN
5000-8000 foot AGL across the area with lack of convection
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus could form overnight western
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 08/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L H M H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L H M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the
weekend...depending on cloud cover.