Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251749 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 149 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EAST OF THE OH RIVER. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE. FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON EITHER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING JUICY AIR MASS TO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND AROUND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST NO LIGHTNING WITH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND OH. IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO REACH SOUTHEAST OH...ROUGHLY AROUND 23Z. THEREFORE...DELAYED VCTS AT HTS AND PKB AROUND THAT TIME. CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS WE LOOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AROUND SHOWERS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW ATTM...THEREFORE...DID NOT INCLUDE SHRA IN TAFS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADDED VCTS AT PKB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 17Z. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN...AND OVER THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE EKN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT DENSE FOG OUT OF EKN TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. .AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...ARJ

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