Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311804 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 204 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH WHERE MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY IS IN THE CARDS. ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET...WITH CU FIELD TO FOLLOW. THIS SETS UP A MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT FLOW...A RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH BEST SHOT AT SEEING A POPCORN SHRA/TSRA BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. EVEN WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH 20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DISSIPATING CU FIELD. LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL YIELD RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT...BRINGING VLIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT KBKW. FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. LOW END VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH HEATING WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BY END OF TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ANY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE. TIMING OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY A FEW HOURS FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...30

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