Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211808 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 208 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS. WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY

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