Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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132 FXUS61 KRLX 231302 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 902 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure today. Weak, moisture-starved cold front crosses late tonight, with gusty winds in the mountains and possibly an isolated shower. Stronger system crosses late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 900 AM Sunday... Clouds scattering out pretty quickly this morning as upper level trough departs. High pressure passes to our south today, with plenty of sunshine and low level winds picking up out of the south. This will result in a much warmer day than yesterday. A weak cold front and upper level trough pass overnight as a quick moving surface low crosses Lake Erie. Have some low end POPs across the northern mountains of West Virginia, however with very limited low level moisture not expecting more than an isolated to shower. Temperatures tonight will generally be in the 40s, so anything that does fall would be in the form of rain. 850mb flow picks up to around 30kts near the cold front, so do expect a decent breeze overnight...especially along ridgetops. Have 30-40kt gusts for the ridges of the northern mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Sunday... Weak frontal system could kick off a few showers across the mountains Monday morning combined with some gusty winds. High pressure builds overhead Monday night and will make for a clear and chilly night with frost possible across the Northern Forecast Area from the Ohio Valley to the Eastern West Virginia Mountains. It is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the sheltered mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 AM Sunday... Weather impacts in the long term will be mostly from upper trough and surface cold front for Thursday. Not a whole lot of moisture with this front, but it does look like most of the region will see scattered rain showers. There is a little bit of time differences within the model guidance at this time and I have decided to go with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance through this period due to these differences. After this trough moves out the flow looks to become more zonal and we could have a few impulses moving through the flow for next weekend, bringing unsettled weather back to the region. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 750 AM Sunday... Have some lingering mid level clouds this morning, then some scattered cumulus passing through the rest of the day. VFR expected into tonight. Tonight, a weak cold front crosses. This should bring increasing clouds across the north, with the potential for some MVFR ceilings. Minimal moisture to support showers, but cannot rule out an isolated shower in the northern mountains. Flow today will be out of the south. Winds will gradually become westerly to northwesterly and pick up overnight, especially just off the surface. This could lead to some low level wind shear if deeper valleys are able to decouple. For now kept some surface flow in place and did not mention LLWS in TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear possible overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.