Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221416 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1016 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses this morning, with high pressure building in for today and Thursday. Warm front Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1010 AM Wednesday... Stratocu eroding away nicely as drier air overwhelms the column. Dewpoints will continue to fall and with a bit of a puff, fire danger will increase. Thankfully 10 hr fuels are still moist so no SPS needed for today. After collaborating with surrounding offices, we went ahead and issued the freeze warning for our four KY counties for tonight and early Thursday morning. As of 345 AM Wednesday... Cold frontal boundary at 0715Z hard to pick out, but appears to be just south of the Ohio River. Behind the front, much lower dew points and much cooler air moving into the region. Once the front clears the area later this morning, expecting a mainly clear sky, although some clouds may be present this morning across the north due to deck that has formed off Lake Erie. Otherwise, dry and mostly sunny today, under cool high pressure. Temperatures today will be much cooler than yesterday due to CAA. With a dry air mass progged to be in place, rh values this afternoon could easily dip into the 20 percent range. In addition, will still have occasional gusty conditions today due to good mixing and tight pressure gradient as high continues to nudge east. With the dry atmosphere in place, expecting a night of good radiational cooling tonight, particularly across northern zones closer to center of the high. Lowered temperatures tonight several degrees from previous forecast, particularly across northern zones. Expecting widespread teens and 20s tonight, with another freeze warning looking likely for KY zones. Will allow the freeze warning for this morning to expire first, and have day shift issue the new headline for tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 510 AM Wednesday... A large high pressure system featuring very dry air over the northeast and mid Atlantic Thursday morning, moves off the east coast by Friday morning, but still ridges back into the middle Atlantic. RH values drop into the 20s north and upper 20s to lower 30s south Thursday afternoon, so will have to watch wind speeds, which should be light given proximity of high pressure, and fuel moisture, which has today and Thursday to dry out. Warm advection associated with a northern stream system may spread precipitation across northern portions of the area Thursday night into Friday. There is a small chance for snow, sleet and / or freezing rain at the front end over the northern WV mountains early Friday morning, until surface temperatures climb above freezing, which should occur by dawn. As that system moves on into the Canadian maritimes Friday afternoon through Saturday, the forecast area will reside in a mainly dry warm sector with southerly flow, as surface high pressure continues ridging back into the middle Atlantic. A southern stream upper level low will drive a cold front toward the area Saturday night, resulting in an increasing chance for showers, and thunderstorms may arrive late if they survive from upstream. Models continue to trend later with this feature. Temperatures close to central guidance other than to follow MOS and a regional blend, which better depict overnight warming, Thursday night. Highs Saturday are a little higher than previous in the warm sector which now dominates much of the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 510 AM Wednesday... A southern stream upper level low opens up as it passes north of the area Sunday, dragging a weakening Pacific cold front across, with the likelihood for showers and the chance for mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Very weak Pacific high pressure follows for Sunday night and Monday, leaving a lot of residual moisture resulting in plenty of clouds, and even spotty light precipitation. Another southern stream upper level trough approaches Monday night, pushing a warm front, perhaps along with a warm wave, across the area Monday night. A cold front may approach on Tuesday, depending upon the influence of the northern stream. Temperatures close to central guidance and above normal. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions, although local mvfr cigs are possible through 15Z. Winds will gradually veer to a more northerly direction, and become gusty at times, with gusts in the teens to 20 kt range. Winds will slacken after 16Z, however, occasional gusts in the teens will remain until around 23Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More mvfr conditions may occur across northern sites than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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