Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200532 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 132 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 730 PM UPDATE...KEPT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES FLOATING AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH IDS TOUCHING OFF THE ACTIVITY. SOME SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIT THE FOG HARDER GIVEN THE WET GROUND...NEAR CALM WIND AND ANTICIPATED BREAKS IN CLOUDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WOW...WHAT A YUCKY DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...MORE REMINISCENT OF FALL. IN FACT MANY AREAS BARELY ABLE TO SURPASS THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL TIME RECORD LOW MAXES FOR MONTH OF JULY APPEAR SAFE AT ALL SITES. S/W TROF AND EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE OFF TO NE AND WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING...TAKING MUCH OF THE STEADIER RAINS WITH IT. LEFT SOME SCHC POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA WITH BEST SHOT ACROSS S WV. NOT SURE HOW MUCH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT. OF COURSE THAT WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS IN HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FG COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. SREF PROBS AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW STRATUS AND FG WOULD BE CONFINED MORE INTO C OH AND C KY WHILE LAMP GUIDANCE SLAMS AREA IN THE DIRT OVERNIGHT. WILL PLAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH PREV FORECAST GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND KEEP DENSE FG OVER SE OH. TOMORROW...COLUMN IS DRY ABV H85 AND WITH OVERALL FLOW BECOMING RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...WILL CONT WITH SCHC POPS THRU THE DAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA TO GENERATE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THUNDER W OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... STILL UNDER UPPER TROUGH WITH SOME 500 MB VORT IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW...BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT BAY. TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL RANGES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FOR MINOR CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO. ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 05Z HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES...HOWEVER SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM HTS-CRW-CKB...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN THESE AREAS FAIRLY SOON. HOWEVER...WIND COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH THE FOG...AS VAD WINDS SHOW 15KTS AT 925MB. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...HAVE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM EASTERN KY...SO COULD GET SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VIS BEFORE SUNRISE AS CLOUDS INCREASE. ANTICIPATE AMENDMENTS AS THINGS PROGRESS TO BETTER HANDLE TIMING. OTHERWISE...THINGS IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS GOING. HAVE A COUPLE RIPPLES AT 500MB SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW IN WHEN AND WHERE TO PUT IN TAF AT THIS POINT. AGAIN...WOULD ANTICIPATE AN AMENDMENT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE GETTING A SHOWER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD PROGRESSION. MAY GET A SHOWER TODAY AT ANY TAF SITE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H L M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H M H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H M M M H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/JW NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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