Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181820 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall this afternoon into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of Noon Sunday... Forecast on track. The 12Z Nam12 does show convection firing early this afternoon near the Ohio River, and then moving east across the area this afternoon into this evening. While this was not entirely bought into yet, the PoP grids were nudged slightly inn that direction. The best shear and CAPE continue to be shown west of the Ohio river through this afternoon. As of 330 AM Sunday... Warm and humid air remains over the region today. Model soundings indicate that dry mid level air will help inhibit convection this afternoon in the Logan to Charleston to Clarksburg/Elkins area. Elsewhere, moisture should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorms, especially over southeast Ohio. A cold front will then push into the area tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Will raise pops in the western counties where storms will arrive during or slightly after the daytime heating. Due to the slow movement of the front, a bit concerned about training of storms. Will have to monitor this situation closely. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday... The front looks to still be in the vicinity Monday morning, waiting for another piece of energy within the upper trof to swing around. This will tend to ramp up the showers and storms once again, especially east of the Ohio River. The threat for flash flooding will continue as a result. Everything finally pushes east Monday evening. The upper trof settles in across the region on Tuesday with lower humidity and drier weather. Some of the models are hinting at a secondary front pivoting through in the afternoon and early evening, resulting in perhaps a few showers. The longwave trof lifts out on Wednesday with quasi zonal flow left in its wake. There may be a few after showers across the northern mountains, otherwise a dry day looks to be on tap with temps beginning to rebound. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 AM Sunday... Somewhat zonal flow with fast hard to time features in the extended. The overall theme will be for shower/storm chances to ramp back up on Friday and Saturday with perhaps some Gulf moisture getting involved. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Sunday... A cold front will bring heavy showers and strong thunderstorms to the area this afternoon into tonight, with the potential for heavy rain overnight and Monday. The threat for the strongest thunderstorms will be through 02Z tonight in the middle Ohio valley. Any of these thunderstorms can bring wind gusts to 40 kts or greater, along with IFR conditions. The showers and thunderstorms will move eastward overnight. the thunderstorms will weaken after sunset, but heavy rain remains possible. IFR is most likely during and after the heavier rainfall overnight into Monday morning. The rain will persist in the mountains into Monday afternoon. The rain will end from west to east across the middle Ohio Valley Monday morning, allowing for slowly improving conditions. Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will become light and variable tonight and Monday. Moderate southwest flow aloft this afternoon and tonight will become light west to southwest on Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High early on, deteriorating to medium tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms in the mountains Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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