Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261352 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 952 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure holds through today. Strong cold front crosses Thursday, and another possibly on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 955 AM Wednesday... No changes this morning. As of 355 AM Wednesday... Have canceled the frost and freeze headlines for a large portion of the forecast area this morning as mid level clouds have kept temperatures much warmer than previously forecast. However, skies are clear across the Southern half of the CWA and we are currently seeing observations in the upper 30s, so have decided to leave out the frost advisory in these areas. Today we will see an increase in temperatures. Highs should climb into the 60s to maybe even low 70s across the Southern forecast area as a frontal system approaching from the west turns the flow out ahead of it from the south. Clouds will be on the increase through as the cold front associated shortwave push into Ohio early Thursday morning. Showers should enter the Ohio Valley by daybreak tomorrow, but the bulk of the precip will be during the short term period of the forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 AM Wednesday... A sfc low pressure system will cross the southern Great Lakes region Thursday. An associated cold front will pass over our area Thursday with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Very little bouyancy, deep layered shear less than 35 knots and precipitable water about 1.14 inches indicate a weak environment for storms to form. Curious that models bring a vorticity maxima ahead of the pcpn. So, kept likely PoPs and a mention of afternoon thunder mainly over the eastern half of the area through Thursday evening. A similar clipper takes the same track passing northwest of the area with another cold front by Sunday. There is going to be a warming trend for the following few days starting with lows in the 40s Thursday night and in the 50s Friday night with showers lingering over the northeast mountains. Highs can climb up into the upper 70s lowlands, ranging to 60 degrees highest peaks. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 335 AM Wednesday... The weather remains unsettled in the long term with a series of upper level disturbance possible along the upper level jet. Went with the blend of models for temperature, tweaking down PoPs when is dry under high pressure. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Wednesday... Only possible issue in the 12Z TAFs is Elk River Valley fog possibly spilling over CRW. Fog is not nearly as thick as it was yesterday and if we do see any issues at CRW it will be short- lived. High pressure will keep VFR conditions at all sites for the remainder of the TAF period, however mid and upper level clouds will be on the increase throughout the day as cold front approaches from the west. Current thinking is that any showers with this front should hold off until after 12Z tomorrow, so there is currently no impacts with this mornings forecast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may briefing push in and out at CRW this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible in showers Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005-006- 013>015-024>026-033>036. OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ087. KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.