Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231748 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 148 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low passes to the south and then to the east, keeping rain mainly in the south and east through Tuesday. Warmer midweek before a cold front crosses Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1145 AM Sunday... Given the latest Hi res models and radar trends, have tightened the north to south POP gradient this afternoon. Will have the northern edge of rain creeping northward by 8 PM to JUST south of a line extending from Huntington to Charleston to Summerville. So keeping the northern half of the area dry. As of 225 AM Sunday... Brief break in the precipitation across much of the area this morning. Upper low near SE MO/SO IL/WRN TN areas, will deepen and gradually move east and south into the southeastern U.S. today and tonight, with precipitation gradually working its way northward into the CWA once again. Still a bit of a discrepancy between the models concerning how far north precipitation and cloud shield will make it in the near term period, but generally thinking southeast Ohio and adjacent counties will stay relatively dry in the near term, with increasing chances of moisture spreading into these areas towards the end of the period/Monday morning. Still looking like most favorable area for heavier precipitation is across extreme southern/eastern zones, and thinking current watch headlines in place look good for now, so no plans to expand at this point. Creeks and streams have been running high across the FFA area, but at this point, no problems have been identified. Across the north, a drier air mass is in place, with dew points in the 30s. This, with the expected less cloud cover, will result in warmer temperatures across the north today, with southern half of the CWA, particularly the mountainous counties, remaining cloudy, and cool, along with the increasing threat of shower activity as the day progresses. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Sunday... Stacked low pressure system tracks slowly eastward across the carolinas Monday through Tuesday, and then northward along the middle Atlantic seaboard Tuesday night through Wednesday night. What is left of the deformation zone near the diffluent region northeast of the upper level low moves northward through the forecast area Monday, returning the chance for showers across much of the WV lowlands. Showers should become increasingly confined to the eastern slopes of the central Appalachians Monday night and Tuesday, as the system shifts east. High pressure anchored over New England, and low pressure over the upper midwest, combine to configure a cool air damming wedge, resulting in moist upslope flow along the eastern slopes of the mountains. This will keep that area socked in with low clouds and light rain and drizzle. This pattern gradually breaks down later Tuesday into Tuesday night, as the pressure gradient from the low to the west moves in and establishes a southerly flow. Wednesday and Wednesday night will be warm and mainly dry in the southerly flow, as a cold front associated with the low pressure system to the west only slowly approaches. The chance for showers is introduced in the middle Ohio Valley by dawn Thursday, as that front gets closer. No adjustments were needed to central guidance temperatures and dew points, with a warming trend that takes temperatures back above normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 420 AM Sunday... Models were generally in agreement on a cold front approaching Thursday and then crossing Thursday night, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms, the thunderstorm chance also diurnally driven. The front weakens thereafter, becoming oriented west to east and drifting back over the area Friday. A chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms are in the forecast for Friday as a result. Models diverge for next weekend on how quickly that front pushes northward, and the area breaks out in the warm sector, and how quickly the next cold front approaches from the west. This will depend upon the strength and positioning of upper level ridging along or off the east coast. A low chance for showers and mainly diurnally driven thunderstorms remain in the forecast as a result. No changes to central guidance temperatures, with lowland highs generally holding in the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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18Z Sunday thru 18Z Monday... As of 1145 AM Sunday... Quite a gradient of Flight Categories this period. Upper level low currently centered over the Tennessee Valley will slowly drop south and east this afternoon and tonight. However, it is broad enough to pull deeper moisture and widespread rain northward into parts our area this afternoon and tonight. Northern edge of rain by 00Z will be just south of HTS-CRW-W22 line with the south quite wet and the north remaining dry. Tonight will see this rain shield shift toward the east and expand up eastern WV, with the back edge of the rain mainly along and east of a CRW-CKB line by 14Z. Look for VFR ceilings to mostly persist outside of the precip shield this period, mainly at PKB and CKB. Mostly MVFR/IFR IN the precip shield, with MVFR prevailing at HTS,CRW, and possibly EKN. IFR/LIFR in the southern and central mountains including BKW. Wind will be easterly at 5 to 10 KTS, except 10 to 20 KTS higher mountain elevations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A minor shift in the upper low movement may greatly affect timing and development of rain across the area. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible into Monday with another wave of low pressure.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ033-034. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JMV

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