Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250716 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 216 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY TONIGHT. NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE COLD PARADE CONTINUES WITH CLIPPERS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. OUT OF THESE CLOUDS...VERY LIGHT PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES...PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LEAD TO A TRACE OF ICE IF ANY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE OHIO AND THE CNTRL WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES COULD FALL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY...AN INCH OR LESS MOST PLACES. COOLED TEMPS A TAD AND BROUGHT THE SNOW IN A LITTLE EARLIER BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...REGARDLESS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH SHOULD FALL AS RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOSE TO WPC THINKING WITH POSITIVE PNA THIS PERIOD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN AGAIN THU-THU NT AND SAT NT. THE ONE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST MON-TUE. HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER TUE NT...AND THEN SAILS ACROSS ON WED. WARMING ALOFT WED MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THU...IN THE SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A GOOD BUT BRIEF UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT THU NT. WHILE STILL AT A DISTANCE WHERE THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX...THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY BE MORE INTERESTING THAN JUST A CLIPPER. LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE CLOSE TO WPC. THE GFS40 WAS EMPLOYED THU MORNING AND SAT MORNING...THE BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING NTS. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CREATE BUST POTENTIAL IN THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOOKING AT GENERALLY 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT CIGS THRU THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KEKN/KCKB...WHERE 8 HUNDRED TO 1 THOUSAND CIGS WILL HOLD. HOWEVER...EXPECT KEKN AND KCKB TO SNEAK INTO LOW END VFR CIGS BY 18Z. AS FOR VSBY...LOOKING AT MAINLY SOME 6SM BR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY...WITH PRECIP BREAKING OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...CLIPPING KPKB AND KCKB LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THIS EVENING AND ORIENT ITSELF MORE INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF ACROSS WV....AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRAVERSES KY AND INTO W WV TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS/VSBY LOWERING INTO IFR OR WORSE BY 06Z. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE N MOUNTAINS WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S FOR KCRW/KHTS/KEKN AND SSE FOR KBKW IN THE WARM SECTOR. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY NE FOR KPKB/KCKB TODAY. FLOW GENERALLY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIGS MAY STAY LOW END MVFR FOR KEKN/KCKB INSTEAD OF IFR...BEFORE LIFTING LATER THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 01/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...30

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