Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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877 FXUS61 KRLX 240818 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 418 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front exits eastern mountains this morning. High pressure builds providing dry conditions. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 320 AM Saturday... Sfc analysis and radar images show the cold front moving east across WV to reach the eastern mountains by sunrise. Meanwhile, light rain will accompany the cold front with very little change in temperatures. High pressure ridge builds along the OH River through tonight. This high pressure will bring dry and fresh air mass to the area. A flash flood watch will probably be allow to expire at 6 AM. Some creeks and rivers are still running high and some are above flood stage especially in northeast KY due to recent rainfall. A river flood warning remains in effect for the Little Sandy River at Grayson as it remains above flood stage.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Friday... High pressure will result in dry weather into Sunday. A cold front should sweep across portions of the region Monday into Monday night bring a chance of showers and storms. Temps will remain below normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Cool high pressure will build in on Tuesday bringing rain chances to an end. Below normal temps should prevail Tuesday into Wednesday before southerly winds result in near normal readings for the remainder of the region. Another system approaching the region from the northwest will result in increasing chances for showers and storms beginning on Thursday which should continue into Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 145 AM Saturday... Radar images show most of the rain exiting the eastern mountains, while a boundary brings a fine line of light showers into southeast OH at the beginning of the period. This boundary could produce a change in winds more to the west northwest. Coded MVFR conditions for the most part except IFR ceilings at BKN and HTS per latest sfc obs. A low stratu deck could develop and bring IFR ceilings during the predawn hours. By 15Z...expect VFR conditions should prevail across the entire area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of MVFR/IFR conditions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M H M M H M L L L M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L M M M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M L L L M M H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ066- 067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ

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