Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 071919 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 219 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES OVERHEAD WETBULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAINSHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON- COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHILE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SNOW FORECAST TOOK QUITE A BIT OF TIME THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE ARISEN OVERALL. STILL LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION...SLOW ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO THE FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL BE GOOD...AND THE FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE EVENT OVERALL. LOWLANDS HAVE SLIGHT INCREASES TO MORE OF A 2 TO 4 INCH POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN... THIS WILL BE OVER A 48 PLUS HOUR TIME FRAME. KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY...DROPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINOR LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL DETERMINE WHEN EACH TERMINAL IS TO DROP BELOW VFR. AREAS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS AND LOWEST VIS AND CEILINGS MAY APPROACH LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK/26 NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JW/MC AVIATION...MPK

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