Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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795 FXUS61 KRLX 182007 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 307 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system overnight with scattered showers. Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1250 PM Saturday... Models show a weak system with an upper level trough moving across the area overnight, producing some showers. Dynamics are weak enough that models are a bit varied on the placement of showers at any particular time, so will generally stay with just high chance pops in the most likely areas. With clouds remaining through the night, will keep low temperatures are the warmer side of MOS guidance. A stratus deck behind the system should lift into a cumulus deck on Sunday as high pressure builds in, allowing for some sunshine, especially in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. I hedged toward the slower NAM given the stout upper ridge that will be in place ahead of this system. Still feel many southern areas hit or surpass 70 degrees Monday and possibly Tuesday, despite the abundance of high clouds. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... The very warm pattern continues through the week. A weak system passes Wednesday. This prolonged stretch of warmth will allow for an early start to budding and blooming of some varieties trees/vegetation. They looks to be a brief respite from the warmth over the weekend as a colder air works in. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1220 PM Saturday... Clouds will gradually be increasing this afternoon, but will remain VFR. A weak system will move over the area tonight. Ceilings will gradually lower, becoming MVFR or possibly IFR. Some showers could also provide restrictions. Conditions will improve on Sunday as the cloud deck raises into a cumulus deck. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon, then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lower clouds could vary. Could have brief visibility restrictions in showers tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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