Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160636 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 136 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Northwest winds to produce light upslope snow tonight. Cool under northwesterly flow aloft tonight through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 135 AM Thursday... Adjusted sky grids based on satellite trends. Otherwise, forecast is on track. As of 1005 PM Wednesday... Made some minor adjustments to the snowfall tonight, which resulted in slight increases in amounts, but still no headlines needed. As of 220 PM Wednesday... Satellite images show fair weather isolated cu across most of the area, while additional cu and strato cu can be seen moving south into southwest OH and parts of WV early this afternoon and evening. Moderate and gusty winds will become light to moderate tonight. This flow will bring more dry and cool air causing temperatures to drop into the mid 20s. It will remain cool Thursday with below normal temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Generally quiet in the short term with periods of clouds. There is just a small chance for showers late Saturday and Saturday night as upper level impulse crosses. It will be turning much warmer by Saturday with highs running a good 15 to 20 degrees above normal && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... Clouds will linger Sunday as the upper level wave moves east of the area. Upper level ridging really takes hold Monday and Tuesday before a cool front crosses late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will continue to be very mild with highs Monday running 20 to 25 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 135 AM Thursday... The next batch of snow now moving through northern areas with -SN reported at KCKB. Expecting precipitation to begin affecting KEKN shortly. Periods of IFR and MVFR likely in snow showers through dawn and winds area wide may vary with respect to speed and gusts. Otherwise, previous forecast is on track minus a few minor tweaks to sky/cig/vsby grids. As of 625 PM Wednesday... Getting some upslope snowfall in northwest flow at CKB and EKN tonight, but going modest in the amount of IFR restrictions in place. LAMP guidance suggests this is a good path to take as well. Ceilings in the low level moisture from the cold air advection aloft will drop into MVFR tonight for all except HTS and CRW. Improvement expected after 14Z Thursday with mixing and some clearing to the sky. Wind gusts 15-25kts tonight out of the west northwest, diminishing tomorrow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could vary in wrap around moisture overnight. Obs at CKB and EKN may bounce in -SHSN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 02/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L L L L L M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H L L H L L H M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/DTC NEAR TERM...ARJ/26/DTC SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26/DTC

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