Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020925 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 525 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT. ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40 KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/02/16 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... POSSIBLE MVF TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING BY TOMORROW MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MPK

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