Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201539 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1139 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary over the area will drift slowly the north today. A stronger cold front crosses from the west Sunday night with high pressure moving in behind it by Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1130 AM Saturday... Made a few tweeks to the sky, pop and wx gridds to account for clearing and convection firing over Ohio. Otherwise, rest of forecast package on track. Previous discussion... Cold front continues to slowly drift to the south this morning. This front will eventually stall across Central West Virginia and then start to slowly lift northward this afternoon and evening. Generally the front will be nearly stationary for most of the day. Similar to yesterday, much uncertainty exists with today`s forecast. Again we are looking at a high Cape and low shear day, with generally isolated thunderstorms possible in the warm sector through the day today, as upper level ridge keeps the midlevels quite dry and capped through much of the day. However, later this afternoon the flow will shift to southerly and the front will finally start to drift north again. Convection will likely develop to our west/southwest and move along this boundary this evening. Would expect something similar to what we saw last night, but this time the line of convection may not make it too far east of the Ohio River Valley. PWATs will be high again this evening and with yesterday`s convection flash flood guidance values will be low in some areas. We may have water issues if convection tonight goes over these same areas once again.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... By Sunday and Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms activity will increase from west to east as a warm front lifts northeast followed by a cold front. Pwats increase to 1.9 inches with limited sfc CAPE and deep layered shear. Therefore, expect an environment conducive to flash flooding and not severe for Sunday. In fact, WPC have most of WV under a Slight risk for excessive rainfall Sunday. A flash flood watch may be required. The cold front moves east diminishing rainfall over the area during the overnight hours. Areas that have already received heavy rainfall from Friday morning and afternoons will be more vulnerable for water problems and for the potential flash flooding during the end of the weekend. Behind the front, expect a period of cooler and drier air early Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... Cooler and drier weather will prevail at the beginning of next week. However, the chances for rain return by midweek with the next frontal system. Temperatures will return to a more seasonable level during this period. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 11150 AM Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail through the early afternoon hours. MVFR cigs at PKB will also become VFR as low stratus gives way to convection passing just to the west and as inversion mixes out with heating this afternoon. Today with a stationary front lingering over the region there will be a chance for isolated showers and storms later this afternoon. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on where showers or storms will set up as dry air aloft will likely hinder convection through the day. The Ohio Valley will have the best chance to see showers and storms develop this afternoon. Southeast upslope flow should bring MVFR ceilings into BKW by midnight Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low stratus and fog may vary the rest of his morning. Also, timing and placement of convection firing this afternoon may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Isolated IFR possible in fog Sunday and Monday nights, and in showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...JS/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JS/MPK

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