Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270915 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 504 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT. BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS RAMP BACK UP LATE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL END TO THE MONTH OF JULY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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09Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY... 5 AM UPDATE...CUT WAY BACK ON CONVECTION THRU 14Z...JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THINGS RAMP UP AGAIN SUNDAY. MVFR CLOUDS/FOG THRU 12Z IN RAIN COOLED AIR FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW AND EKN...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS. ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 14Z...AFTER A MINIMUM OF MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS. AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOOK FOR TREND TO MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST OF AREA BY 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/27/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JMV HYDROLOGY...JMV

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