Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221928 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 228 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through early next week with numerous rain showers, as an upper low rotates through the area. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1010 AM Sunday... Made some minor changes to PoP based on current Radar and Meso Model trends. Started the onset a little earlier across SW Virginia, but made a tighter gradient across the northern edge of the precip with chance PoP coming into Charleston at around 17Z. Will continue to monitor precip trends and update as needed through the day. Have decided to leave high temperatures as is for now since WAA should occur through the day. As of 6 AM Sunday... No significant changes made. As of 320 AM Sunday... Our weather will be dominated by upper disturbances rotating around an approaching upper low from the west. With a deep and moist southerly flow prevailing, temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of year. Models have one weakening disturbance lifting northward through the area today, with a weakening band of rain showers. QPF amounts will be light and greatest over the south. A stronger disturbance lifts north over the area tonight, but this disturbance will tend to wrap westward around the main approaching upper low. There will likely be a brief break in the rain between these two systems, but have tended to broadly cover higher pops given timing uncertainty. Models also show a relative dry slot working into the area tonight, but uncertainty again supports a general coverage and continuation of the rain showers overnight, with perhaps a bit of a rain shadow just west of the mountains given a low level southeasterly flow. Instability is such that while there may be a rumble of thunder with the second disturbance tonight, not enough confidence to insert thunder in forecast. Greatest QPF this period looks to be along and west of the Ohio River and northeast Kentucky, as the wraparound band of rain trains somewhat. However, not yet seeing a headline for any flood watch, but will continue to highlight possibility in the hazardous weather outlook. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... By Monday night, the strong low moves to our east taking most of the rain showers with it. However, wrap around moisture will continue to produce rain showers across the north and the possibility of snow showers along the northeast mountains under north to northwest flow into Tuesday. Guidance suggest it should be dry with mild temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Another but weaker low pressure system crosses east north of the area Wednesday bringing a pair of fronts with chance for mainly rain showers. Temperatures at H850 cool down to minus 7C suggesting all snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday. From Thursday night on, deep northwest flow will persists through the end of the week, allowing mid level short waves to ride along and produce upslope snow over the northeast mountains through the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 PM Sunday... A busy forecast period with strong closed low pushing south and east of the region. There will be several rounds rain rotating northwest across the area as the low passes. For the most of this afternoon conditions should remain mostly VFR with the exception of BKW where SE flow has kept the moisture trapped against the mountains. First weak wave out ahead of the approaching system is spreading light rain into Southern West Virginia, but conditions should not dip below VFR with this first round, with the exception at CRW where MVFR conditions could briefly occur. More widespread rain overspreads the area from south to north tonight, with conditions lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR in heavier rain showers. Winds will also pick up, but should not be much of an impact other than in the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of southeast upslope clouds today and tonight could vary at BKW. Conditions could fluctuate continuously with rain bands from system overnight and tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H M M M H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR in rain and fog possible Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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