Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290540 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 140 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HIGH PRESSURE SAILING BY TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...REACHING THE NE COAST FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS ON FRI. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A MAINLY DRY FCST...WITH A WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRI. AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY HINDER DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF FIRST THING FRI MORNING...WITH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH MORNING STRATUS/CU AS THIS MORNING. THAT WARM FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW...AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAY LEAD TO LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER SRN WV. ALSO MAINTAINED A BROKEN SKY FCST SE MOUNTAINS ON DEVELOPING SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV...SLIGHTLY GREATER N-S DIFFERENCE ON LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD FCST...AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGHS NE WV FRI...AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NE-WARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUN AND ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS DEVELOPING SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO PULL THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED FRONT...LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 00Z SAT...NORTHWARD AND LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SAT. STILL HAVE A BAND/AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS TRANSLATING SW TO NE ROUGHLY 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 15Z SAT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL WELL WEST BUT LATEST NAM RUN HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER IN/OH WHICH MAY CREEP INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN. CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARDS A TICK. IN FACT...SHOULD THE LATEST GFS/EURO RUNS VERIFY...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S. DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT WARM HOWEVER WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 25C...BUT DO SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS WILL MEET OR SURPASS THE 90F MARK THAN WON/T...FOR THE LOWLANDS OF COURSE. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AGREED WITH PREV FCSTER IN BRINGING IN THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS QUICKER...BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VORT MAX PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL MOVE E/NE WHILE THE AREA SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUN. STOPPED SHORT OF CAT POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS STILL IN PLAY...BUT PRECIP IS A GOOD BET FOR ALL AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND MINIMAL DCAPE/THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS...BUT WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND 25-30KTS SOME STORMS CERTAINLY MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE. CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WITH DENSE OVERCAST IN PLACE AND PERIODIC PRECIP...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HTS AND CRW BRINGING A LIGHT WIND AT LAST OB...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO HOLD ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BAY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. STILL KEEP HTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE WITHOUT GOING TO LIFR AS SUPPORTED BY LAMP GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...LIFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE NIGHT...WITH EKN EXPECTED TO DROP THE SOONEST. BKW NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/50 NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...26

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