Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 060539 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 139 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE SMALL HOWEVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W. FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MIXES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005- 006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102- 103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003- 004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ

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