Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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693 FXUS61 KRLX 252310 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 708 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through midweek. Cold front to bring cooler temperatures but limited precipitation Thurday. Another weak system by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... High pressure dominates the weather the start the week. This will bring dry conditions with daytime highs well above normal. High clouds, thanks to Hurricane Maria will linger during this time. Morning river valley fog will be the only real weather concern. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday... Temperatures will remain well above normal for this time of year to start the period as the responsible upper-level ridge erodes with an approaching trough from the West. Autumn knocks on the door with great anticipation Wednesday night through Thursday with a mainly-dry cold front moving through the region from the NW to SE. Hurricane Maria will continue to hang around the coast of North Carolina, and its circulation effectively cuts the moisture feed into this area. Pressure fields will be somewhat compressed in the eastern zones due to Maria, so some gusts in 10-15 mph neighborhood can be expected. What little low-level moisture exists will turn to scattered cumulus cover in the cold-air advection behind the front during the day Thursday with near-normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... A progressive weather pattern dominates the long-term forecast. A reinforcing shot of cold air behind another mainly-dry cold front will sweep though Friday night into Saturday, with low- level Great Lakes moisture struggling to make much headway into this area. Long-range model consistency tapers off considerably going into the next week with indications of generally unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 705 PM Monday... VFR conditions can be expected with the exception of some late night/early morning river valley fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/MC NEAR TERM...JB SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...RPY

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