Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051043 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 643 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS A SUBTLE DECREASE IN HEAT...HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY. WEAKENING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE DURING THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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645 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BRINGING A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...IN LIGHT FLOW IN A COLL AREA BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGHS TO THE E AND SW...AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO THE S AND N. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN COMPARED WITH FRI...AND THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE PROMPTLY UPON LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. THE SE FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE E COAST HIGH WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT SHOWER THERE THIS MORNING...AND THEN MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IF WE COULD GET DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE E AND W SLOPES. THESE STORMS MAY THEN DRIFT WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS...IN THE LIGHT MEAN LAYER ERLY FLOW. ANOTHER TRANQUIL NT IS UPCOMING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMING..AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NOSES SWWD OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS WELL CONVERGED AND LOOKS GOOD IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN...LEANED TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DISTURBANCES...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE COAST...WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM SNEAK DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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IFR VALLEY FOG N AND MVFR VALLEY MIST S BURNS OFF BY 14Z. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL DIE DOWN PROMPTLY WITH SUNSET. MVFR TO IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE E...BUT 1/4SM VLIFR CODED ONLY FOR EKN. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT E TO SE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND THUS NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP IN THE TAFS...BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AFTER DARK WHERE IT DOES RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OTHERWISE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. ONLY CODED 1/4SM FOR EKN BUT THIS IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SITES LIKE PKB...CRW AND CKB AS WELL AS THE SMALLER VALLEY AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/05/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING NEXT SEVERAL NTS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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