Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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197 FXUS61 KRLX 231905 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 205 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system exits northeast, but remains unsettled through Wednesday. Warmer to end the week. Cold front next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 2:05 PM Tuesday... Lull in the precipitation this afternoon, however, low clouds are gradually sneaking their way back into the CWA, with CAA and upper trough influence across the area. Gusty west/northwesterly wind continuing across the area this afternoon, will decrease somewhat overnight, but overall remain gusty for much of the period. With increase in moisture depth overnight, and a couple of shortwaves during the period, one late tonight/early Wednesday, and another one on Wednesday, expecting periods of light snow showers. Little to no accumulation expected across the lowlands, with light accumulations across the higher terrain. Although QPF will be light, high snow to liquid water ratios will allow for a few inches across the higher terrain counties. Possible that on Wednesday, area of -shsn activity may need to be increased in coverage and duration, but will allow future shifts to reevaluate this based on trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 AM Tuesday... A 500mb shortwave trough will swing through on Wednesday. Moisture is fairly limited, but with 850mb temps in the -10C range, should still be able to get some light snow showers...especially across the northern mountainous counties. The snow showers should taper off from west to east overnight. Still have some cold air advection lingering Thursday morning, so cannot rule out some lingering flurries, but opted to not include them at this point since moisture will be limited and the air is not super cold. Surface flow turns SW Thursday into Friday with a surface high drifting toward the NC/VA coast. This will bring a warming trend to end the work week. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Models remain fairly unhelpful for weekend system. The GFS is much faster with the system, bringing a cold front through late Saturday and Saturday night. The GFS is fairly progressive and is dry by midday Sunday. The ECMWF is much slower with this system, as it tries to cutoff the 500mb flow and pulls a southern stream surface low up the Appalachian spine Sunday into Monday. With the stronger system on the ECMWF -- enough cold air would arrive for a changeover to snow Sunday night into Monday. The GFS is much warmer... and mainly dry at this time. For now did not stray far from a consensus blend, having high chance POPs Saturday night into Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Tuesday... 18Z Tuesday through 18Z Wednesday... VFR conditions across the area this afternoon, but expect a gradual lowering to widespread MVFR particularly after 00Z Wednesday, along with developing -shsn. Brief IFR conditions are possible in -shsn, particularly across the northern and central mountains. Otherwise, gusty west to west-northwesterly winds for the TAF period, with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range area wide, although gusts will decrease to the teens after 09Z Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Rain and snow showers, and associated IFR restrictions tonight may be more widespread than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M M L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR snow possible in mountain terminals Wednesday/Wednesday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...SL

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