Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261928 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 328 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses late today with showers and thunderstorms. A large upper level low drops into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, and then swirls about the area Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday... Models have been in agreement with convection firing up ahead and along a passing cold front this afternoon. Lightning data shows lightning is more numerous ahead of the front over WV. These storms will be in the vicinity of EKN, CRW, and BKW through tonight. Any heavy rain could produce brief IFR/LIFR conditions along their path. A cool breeze follow behind the front from the northwest. High resolution models have the front decaying as the cold front as ir moves over our area. However, sfc CAPE and deep layered shear can combine and produce tall thunderstorms through this evening. Tonight will bring clearing in the wake of the front, with a brief period of IFR post-rain fog and stratus. Populated Highs and lows closer to the super blend through the period. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM Monday... Some seasonable Fall weather is finally on tap for the region. A Broad upper low/trough will dig south across the region and remain nearly stationary overhead. We will be mostly clear Tuesday night and will have a cool start to the day on Wednesday...as lows drop into the 40s just about everywhere. The cool weather will remain through the end of the week as H500 anomaly of 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal expected with upper low. As the upper low pushes in we can also expect an increase in shower activity with cooling temps aloft and continued height falls on Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 320 PM Monday... Operational and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement with large upper level low remaining overhead well into the weekend. With the cool temperatures aloft...any daytime heating we receive will quickly yield showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. The good news is that this should bring some much needed rainfall to the region and amounts will remain light enough so we are not expecting any hydro issues. The upper low meanders northward Sunday into Monday with ridging moving in behind it. This will bring warm air back into the region with upper 70s to near 80 degrees for the start of the next work week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday... Radar and satellite images indicate convection ahead and along an approaching cold front. The PCPN activity will reach southeast OH by 18Z, then will spread east. So, expect MVFR/VFR conditions along showers or storms. Thunderstorms are evident ahead of the front in wV. These storms could produce a brief IFR condition under heavy rain. The front slowly exit the area to the east by 02z tonight. A brief period of stratus and fog is likely to follow the cold front tonight, although this may tend to linger in and near the WV mountains. Moderate southwest flow ahead of the front, will become light to moderate west to northwest behind the front tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The timing and impact of showers and thunderstorms with the front this afternoon and early evening may vary. Stratus and fog behind the front tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H M L H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M L L H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M L L M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M H M L L L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Friday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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