Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020548 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 148 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS IN PLACE EARLY TODAY...GRADUALLY DRYING FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY ALONG OR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON RADAR AND LATEST HRRR/RAP... HAVE MODIFIED THE POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER. END RESULT IS A QUICKER END TO THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS OR CLOSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON LATEST LAV TEMP GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...IT RETREATED A BIT IF ANYTHING. SHARP GRADIENTS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SKY COVER AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ACCOMPANY THIS SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION FIRED IN THE SUNSHINE OVER THE MOUNTAINS E OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD DIE DOWN / MOVE OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND THE SUN SETS. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...TAKING SOME OF THE GRADIENT WITH IT. IT WILL ALSO TAKE THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS JUST W OF THE FCST AREA RIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS TUE. THE WARM...MOIST AIR WILL NOT BE THAT FAR TO OUR SE...AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR SW VA COUNTIES. TRIED TO DEPICT A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH MOSTLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SHOULD KEEP US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS...TIMING THE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT MAKING FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. SO...EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE PRONOUNCEMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SE AND PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. KEPT CLIMO TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOTS OF IFR IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW STRATUS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE AND THEN FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND KANAWHA RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATUS QUO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CKB WHICH SHOULD DROP INTO IFR SOON...THROUGH THE NIGHT. THINGS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...BUT SOME VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON. MAY GET SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT A TAF SITE AT THIS POINT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERALL TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA MAY VARY. .AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG POSSIBLE WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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