Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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754 FXUS61 KRLX 011838 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 238 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSTABLE TODAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARD END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... BREAKS IN CLOUDS OFFER A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIS < 4 AND CAPE > 1000 J/KG AND EVEN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORMS TRAIPSING ACROSS AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY LAST NIGHTS RAIN. SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WE GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR EXCEPT UNDER SHOWERS WHERE IFR IS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE INTENSE. HIGH LOW LEVEL RH MAY POSE A THREAT FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD VARY. HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE IFR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING TO PUT IN TAF. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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