Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210612 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 212 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Thunderstorm activity on the increase into the weekend with strong to severe storms possible on Saturday. Frontal system passes early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
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As of 200 AM Friday... Recent radar trends along with latest high res model guidance supports increase in POPs early this morning into the afternoon. The guidance is actually quite bullish on developing convection during the afternoon and will reassess with the next update. Increasing mid clouds should limit extent of valley fog.
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&& .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday... On Friday, convection will be on the increase area wide, particularly if there are any leftover outflow boundaries from previous night convection. Moisture will also be on the increase across the area, with dew points climbing a few degrees on Friday. This will push heat indices into the lower 100s across parts of the lowlands, and create the need for a heat advisory. The one concern is whether or not convection and cloud cover will dampen temperatures a bit. But feel public safety is more of a concern at this point, and even if the numbers are not quite advisory criteria, it will still be dangerously hot. In addition, heavy downpours, and strong gusty winds will be possible with any convection on Friday. Frontal boundary sags and stalls over northern portion of the area Friday night along with plenty of moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms a good bet with boundary draped across the north especially on Saturday with daytime heating. Went likely pops along front chance pops elsewhere. Warm and muggy through Saturday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 AM Thursday... Low pressure from the plains will finally move eastward across the great lakes Sunday and Monday. Expect trailing cold front to pass through the region Monday night, Tuesday time frame. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Cooler and drier high pressure builds in behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring some relief in the high temperatures and humidity as temperatures should average about 10 degrees cooler through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Friday... Risk for showers increased over the northern 1/2 of the airspace overnight with best odds at KPKB. Increasing mid level clouds btwn 5-10kft should limit visibility restrictions to AOA MVFR. The latest model guidance is more bullish on thunderstorms this afternoon and have started to show this trend via VCTS in 21/06z TAFs. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely in heavy downpours. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development will depend largely on amount of cloud cover. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L M H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M L H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L H M L H M L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday in showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-013>015-024>026. OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ083-086-087. KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/SL NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...MS

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