Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231756 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 156 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DRY WARM FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. AS SUCH...ISSUED AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE SW VA COUNTIES. RH WILL RECOVER A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TOMORROW WITH LOW DEWPOINTS BEHIND A DRY WARM FRONT TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN WV COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THE SE OHIO COUNTIES...PROMPTING A FREEZE WARNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE IN LIMITING SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. BUT NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER. MET NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS. STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS. BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV. USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STRATOCU DECK STILL HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WV. IT CONTINUES TO ERODE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FEW SITES SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 03Z THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD VARY. CIGS COULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED IF CLOUDS ARE DEEPER THAN ANTICIPATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011- 016>020-027>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LS NEAR TERM...LS SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...LS

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