Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251820 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 220 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Additional disturbances bring the chance for shower and storms over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Thursday... Well defined upper level vort max rotating through the base of the parent upper low bringing a shield of light rain through the Tri State area and coal fields. Rates are generally light, and should pose too much of a problem despite the coverage and hitting most of the basins. Flash flood guidance down in that area is less than an inch over an hour, but we should be below that threshold. With the upper low passing this evening and the 500mb height gradient sharpening in its wake, expecting winds to increase tonight with ridge and mountain top gusts in the 25-35kt range. BUFKIT profiles do not show advisory criteria wind to mix down from the NAMnest model/momentum transfer. POPs exit tonight, lastly in the northeast mountains with a brief chance for drying heading into the Friday time period. Temperatures should be significantly warmer over the Tri State and coal fields/southern mountains tomorrow with a better chance to see sun.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM Thursday... Upper level low will finally be well off to our northeast by Friday morning. Still could see some showers across the mountains until ridging builds in later in the day. Brief ridging will give way to more unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. A stationary boundary sets up from west to east across the area and this will be the focus for showers and storms through the weekend as several shortwave traverse the zonal flow. Still quite a bit of uncertainty for Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate very decent instability with generally 1500 to 2000 J/Kg of fat CAPE with EML basically overhead. However, it appears like there may be ongoing convection in the morning and not sure how this will affect convective development later in the day. Will weak short wave impulse that will pass later in the afternoon/evening be enough of a kicker to break the cap and kick off storms? Nonetheless, like I have mentioned the last couple of mornings, there is a chance for widespread severe storms Saturday afternoon with the ingredients that will be in place. Flash flooding also is looking like a real possibility as the convection and already low FFG values is not what we want to see anytime, let alone on a holiday weekend when campsites will likely be full. For now we will just have to continue to monitor as the forecast unfolds over the next couple days. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 AM Thursday... Models continue to highlight more showers and storms on Sunday through Monday as deep trough approaches from the west. However, the guidance has bounced around a bit on the timing of this feature, leading to low confidence in the forecast for days 4 through 7. Will stick with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance for now. The main concern is definitely going to be flash flooding, as we are really going to see our share of rainfall leading up to the passage of this upper trough/cold front. Will start highlighting this in the HWO as well as possible severe storms mentioned in the short term. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Thursday... Brief IFR possible in showers, but thunder is very limited and certainly not expecting any for prevailing conditions at any of the terminals. Shield of rain moving across the southern zones to affect HTS/CRW/BKW and eventually into EKN, with more hit or miss activity for the PKB/CKB areas. Still tried to be as deterministic as possible using high res models through the first 12 hours of the forecast. Have a chance for ceilings to come back down again tonight into the IFR range, but this will need to happen before around 06Z when winds will increase, stirring the lower levels. With the wind in place, using 1-2kft ceilings and MVFR prevailing through the back half of the TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... Forecast Confidence: Low to medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMD may be needed for shower activity and brief IFR. Ceilings into tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible during showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ013-015- 024>027-033-034-515-517-519. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26

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