Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201919 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 319 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS HOLDS ON THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER LEVELS...AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...HAS RESULTED IN RATHER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS AS OF 17Z. FORTUNATELY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THUS MITIGATING A MAJOR FIRE ISSUE...BUT HAVE A SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY FUELS/ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECTING PERIOD OF COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM SUNNY DAYS TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DID ELECT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY EASTERN KY...MONDAY EVENING. ELECTED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING OF POPS. LAST CHECK OF RAWS OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VA SHOW FUEL MOISTURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN REST OF CWA...SO FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE SPS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING DRY. APPEARS SOME PREFRONTAL ACTION TUESDAY MORNING WITH BAND OF SHRA AND THUNDER WITH FRONT TO FOLLOW. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. CONTINUED THAT TREND FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. SOME PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOL DAY TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU ESPECIALLY N WV...WHICH DISSIPATES LATE WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL TROF AND SUBSEQUENT WAA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD FRONT. MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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