Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231516 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1116 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11AM UPDATE... FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HAS BEGUN TO BREAK UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE AS MIXING GETS GOING. OLD BELOW... NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TIMING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. BUT NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER. MET NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS. STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS. BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV. USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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15Z UPDATE... STRATOCU DECK HAS HUNG ON OVER NORTHERASTERN WV AND MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO. GENERALLY STAYING VFR EVEN IN THE CLOUDS...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE AS MIXING BEGINS. OLD BELOW... A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUD DECK IN THE NORTH DISSIPATING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032. OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY/LS SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY/LS

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