Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220836 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 415 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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ENTERING INTO THE PEAK OF THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN - NOW INTO TONIGHT. BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW AT 925 MB IS ONGOING WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT UNDISTURBED FEED UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE WNW TO ESE BAROCLINIC ZONE. 925 MB REDUCES TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TODAY. SEVERAL SMALL MID LEVEL 500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. ONE PASSES CROSSES SRN WV MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z. 07Z RAP HAS ANOTHER ALONG INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BY THEN. HOWEVER...EVEN AT 08Z...MORE STORMS HAVE REACHED INTO WESTERN OHIO. SO...DOING HOURLY POPS WAS CERTAINLY A CHALLENGE ON THIS GRAVEYARD SHIFT. EVEN THOUGH THE PKB-CKB AREA DID NOT GET MUCH RAIN ON THURSDAY...MOST COUNTIES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED PAST WEEK. DID NOT WANT TO OVER FORECAST WHERE EACH CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY GO AND TRY TO NARROW DOWN THE WATCH. POSTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. STILL SEEMS THE HEART OF THE CWA MOST VULNERABLE. EVEN THE 07Z RAP HAS THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM PW FM NRN IL ESE INTO CENTRAL WV AOA 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS HAVE BEEN THE WETTEST LATELY AND WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST RUNOFF PERCENTAGE. STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO PICTURING THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE HIGHER POPS TO SINK INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THOUGH AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL INFLOW...AS MENTIONED...NOT AS STRONG. IN THIS PATTERN...COULD EVEN SEE STRONG RISES ON SOME HEADWATER RIVERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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BOUNDARY CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH SATURDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO KICK OFF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY IN THE COAL FIELDS AND WV MOUNTAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH...STILL EXPECTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ONE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH 06Z TO 12Z WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND IFR VSBY AND CEILING. OTHER DISTURBANCES IN ITS WAKE WILL RIDE SE AND MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS DURING THE MORNING...FIGURING MORE IN SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA FOR THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CEILINGS BECOMING MAINLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN WITH LAYERS AND VSBY 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE AFTER ABOUT 16Z. YET...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS. MVFR VSBY LIKELY 03Z TO 06Z SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS WANING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF PCPN MAY EVEN LINGER LONGER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY L M M H H M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 06Z TO AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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