Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300814 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 414 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts through today, followed by a cold front Thursday night and Friday. High pressure Sunday. Next system Monday or Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday... High clouds will be on the increase early today as a surface low and closed 500mb low cross the Central Plains. This will lift a warm front through, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along the Ohio River and into north-central WV. With SE flow at the surface, think precip will have a hard time moving into the typical downslope zone along I-79 from Charleston to Clarksburg. However the SE flow could drive some light rain along the eastern slopes and Appalachian ridge. Precip will rapidly increase tonight as the surface low crosses northern IN with a cold front pushing in from the west. This will likely be the remnants of the strong to severe thunderstorms expected in the Lower Ohio River Valley today. It will be coming through overnight, a poor time for sustained strong convection. However, should a good cold pool driven convective complex already be ongoing, there is enough CAPE (200-400J/kg) and shear (40-50kts) to keep a somewhat organized line going as it moves in from the west with a potential for damaging winds and some hail. PWAT values of 1.0-1.3" indicate the potential of heavy rain. Basin averages should be in the 0.25-0.5" range, but of course there could be locally higher amounts which could approach an inch. With current 3 hour flash flood guidance of around 1.5-2" we should be able to avoid any significant water issues. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday... A strong system exits the area Friday though not before squeezing out at least a 1/2" of QPE area wide. A few wrap around showers linger into Saturday. Otherwise high pressure builds through Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... The next system approaches Monday and crosses late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds again Wednesday. The active weather pattern continues with no end in sight. A little hesitant to add details as run to run consistency is poor on low pressure tracks, but good on general pattern recognition. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... VFR expected today, as with clouds on the increase. An isolated to scattered t-shower is possible along the Ohio River and across the eastern slopes, which could lead to restrictions but confidence not high enough to mention at any TAF site. More widespread rain will being moving in late tonight. Wind will generally be SE to S through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could get some MVFR to IFR in t-showers today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/30/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night and Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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