Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 081500 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1000 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses first thing this morning, followed by much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 955 AM Thursday... No changes necessary. As 0f 620 AM Thursday... Forecast on track. As of 310 AM Thursday... A cold front entering the forecast area from the west early this morning, crosses in a subtle manner this morning. Low level west to northwest flow and cold advection will gradually increase in the wake of the front today. It will take much of the day to get a stratocu deck in place, and upslope snow showers will only gradually get going in the northern mountains tonight. Maintained forecast of an inch at Snowshoe late overnight tonight with h85 temperatures -12 to -14 C supporting dendritic crystal growth. Used a near term guidance blend for temperatures, with a slow rise in cold advection today, and overall not much change from the previous forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Thursday... Light upslope snow showers will continue across the higher terrain Friday and Friday night, with light accumulations possible. Still quite cold across the area Friday and Friday night, with -6-7C air at 850. Mountains will see another night in the single digits to teens, with teens to lower 20s elsewhere. Snow showers will taper off by Saturday morning as flow becomes less favorable. Much of the weekend will remain dry, and gradually milder, as weak ridging builds across the area in advance of the next system. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... Active weather returns to the long term period. A wave will move east across the Great lakes region Sunday, creating light precipitation, mainly across northern zones. Precipitation will increase across the area region wide by Sunday night into Monday, as low pressure in the plains moves northeast into the Great Lakes region, spreading rain and snow showers back into the area. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 955 AM Thursday... A dry cold front will bring some cloudiness across the area today.Satellite images show pockets of clear skies mixed with high level clouds. In addition, a low to mid deck behind the cold front will try to move east across southeast OH this morning. No major changes made. As of 620 AM Thursday... A mid deck associated with a cold front crossing this morning will exit, leaving just ci for a time this afternoon. Stratocu in the cold advection west to northwest flow in the wake of the cold front, will finally start to show up later this afternoon. This is likely to form ceilings around 4 kft by the end of the day, lowering to MVFR 2-3 kft around midnight tonight. Snow showers are likely to start showing up in the northern mountains before dawn Friday. West to northwest flow will gradually freshen today, becoming gusty this afternoon and persisting through tonight. Light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft will become light to moderate northwest tonight, basically a slight, gradual veering through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocu may vary tonight. Gusty winds will vary this afternoon and tonight, and may be stronger than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in snow showers into Friday in the mountains, especially across the higher windward terrain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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