Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011900 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 300 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...IT RETREATED A BIT IF ANYTHING. SHARP GRADIENTS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...SKY COVER AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ACCOMPANY THIS SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION FIRED IN THE SUNSHINE OVER THE MOUNTAINS E OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD DIE DOWN / MOVE OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND THE SUN SETS. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...TAKING SOME OF THE GRADIENT WITH IT. IT WILL ALSO TAKE THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS JUST W OF THE FCST AREA RIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS TUE. THE WARM...MOIST AIR WILL NOT BE THAT FAR TO OUR SE...AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OUR SW VA COUNTIES. TRIED TO DEPICT A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH MOSTLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SHOULD KEEP US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS...TIMING THE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT MAKING FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. SO...EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE PRONOUNCEMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SE AND PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. KEPT CLIMO TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE BIG CHNAGE IS THAT TYHE COLD FRONT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING..IT ACTUALLY RETREATED A BIT IF ANYTHING. THIS ALLOWED FOR VFR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWLANDS WERE SOCKED IN IFR TO LOW MVFR MAINLY ON CIGS. THESE SITES WERE MIXING HIGHER THROUGH THE MVFR ZONE BY MIDDAY. CONVECTION FIRED UP IN THE MOUNTAINS...THIS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE W OF THE AREA WILL MOVE E TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH IT WHILE PUSHING THE FRONT E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONITONS DETERIOATING TO IFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IMPROVEMENT ON TUE WILL BE RATEHR SLOW. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW E OF THE FRONT AND N SFC FLOW W OF IT WILL BECOME LIGHT N TO CALM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE...TRENDING TOWARD SE BY TUE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SW SE OF THE OHIO RIVER E OF THE FRONT ALOFT...AND LIGHT NE NW OF THE OHIO RIVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONT WILL DRIVE TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY AT EKN...BKW AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU OF WV. OVAEALL TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL VARY. .AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS POSSIBLE WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JW NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...TRM

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