Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050606 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SPELL MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. FIGURING LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 200 AM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCN... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMED OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...WHILE THE LARGER COMPLEX IN OHIO IS WANING IN SOUTHERN OHIO. FOR THE 3RD DAY...LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS WITH THE COOLING STORMS. CELLS COULD STILL FORM THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT HAD NOT DONE SO EARLIER. SO KEEPING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED BY 04Z OR SO. SE FLOW ON SATURDAY - HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR 2 COOLER...SO WILL LEAVE MAX TEMP UNDER 90 DEGS FOR THE USUAL HOT SPOTS FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E CONUS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION THAT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THERE SHOULD BE DIURNAL POPCORN SHRA/TSRA MAXIMIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AMID SOME SE FLOW. STILL...LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS ON THE MUGGY SIDE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONVECTION HAD DIED OFF FOR THE NT...AND DENSE VALLEY WAS FORMING BENEATH A CANOPY OF ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUD. THIS CIRRUS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A PERSISTENT LIFR DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORTS. BKW HAD EXPERIENCED IFR FOG IN THE WAKE OF A THUNDERSTORM THAT AFFECTED THAT AIRPORT 00-02Z. IT WAS LIFTING OUT AROUND 06Z AND IT WAS UNCLEAR WHETHER A LIGHT SE PUFF THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG FROM RETURNING THERE OVERNIGHT. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY THERE. THE OVERALL VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH A SE FLOW OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY DOWN A BIT ON SAT. SCATTERED CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON MAY NOT AMOUNT TO AS MUCH AS WAS THE CASE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OWN MORE PROMPTLY UPON SUNSET SAT EVENING...AND DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL START FORMING BY 06Z ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT AIRPORTS UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AFTER DARK WHERE IT RAINS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE WHILE E TO NE FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT BECOMES LIGHT SE ON SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND THUS NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP IN THE TAFS...BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/05/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING NEXT SEVERAL NTS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/30/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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