Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241745 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 145 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend. The next shot at showers arrives Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Friday... Mainly quiet in the warm sector tonight and much of tomorrow. There will be intervals of clouds through the period, particularly late tonight and tomorrow morning. For temps, we rolled on the high side of guidance tonight and tomorrow which was well clustered to begin with. We may hit 80 along and south of the I64 corridor if we can get enough sun in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM Friday... With a warm front set up to our north, generally looking at warm temperatures through the short term. Saturday should be mostly dry, although do have some low end POPs creeping into the west by evening. This is tied to a nearly stacked low pressure system moving across the Mississippi River Valley Saturday night and weakening/opening as it crosses the Great Lakes on Sunday. Have fairly high POPs on Sunday as an occluding cold front pushes through. Have POPs decreasing Sunday night as the surface boundary heads NE. But keep some slight chance to low chance POPs going since we maintain a fairly moist flow as another system starts sliding across the Central Plains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... A fairly quick moving surface low and 500mb shortwave trough crosses Monday night into Tuesday with likely POPs. Went mostly dry Wednesday and Wednesday night, with POPs ramping back up Thursday as another surface/500mb low begins to move across the Southern Plains. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. Wednesday should be the coolest day with some northwest flow resulting in highs fairly close to normal. Stuck very close to a consensus blend through the period for highs and lows. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 630 AM Friday... VFR through the period with some mid and high clouds in the warm sector. Generally light southwest flow tonight becoming southerly on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Restrictions are likely with the advance of cold front Sunday night and early Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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