Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281033 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 633 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS A PARADE OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES ENEWD INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY...AND THEN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AS A SECONDARY CENTER FORMS OFF THE NE COAST. LOW LEVEL WRAPPING AROUND IT WAS PRODUCING STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WITH ITS SWRN EXTENT NEAR THE SW EDGE OF THE FCST AREA...NEAR THE TUG FORK. THIS BACK EDGE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD TODAY...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...AND THEN PULL OUT / DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER AROUND SUNSET. THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE / COMMA HEAD CURLING AROUND THE SYSTEM STAYS MOSTLY N OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL ALSO WANE SW TO NE TODAY. CLEARING AND LIGHT WIND MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS TODAY...THE MET WAS HIGHER STILL. LOWS TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO THE BIAS CORRECTED MET...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE THERE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY WILL CLIMB BACK UP AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THUS...THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...AND A SECONDARY FRONT MID WEEK...WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RATHER STORMY WEEK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT STORMS WILL MOVE...THEREBY SOMEWHAT LIMITING FLOODING POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WAS RESULTING IN MVFR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. CLOUD BASES WILL MIX ABOVE 3 KFT BY AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT FROM SW TO NE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING...ANY CLOUDS REMAINING OVER NRN WV WILL BREAK UP. THIS MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IFR IS NOT FCST AT THIS TIME. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. W SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL BE A BIT GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT W TO SW TOWARD DAWN MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS AND BREAKUP THEREOF MAY VARY TODAY. IFR FOG IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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