Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300917 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 517 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHE THE HEAVIER STORMS. DRIER AIR FILTERS IF BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. USED SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR IMAGES SHOW ISOLATED STORMS CROSSING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE CRW AND BKW WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS OR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE TWO SITES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY VARY. FOG OCCURRENCE DEPENDS ON EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/30/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...ARJ

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