Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250837 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 437 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler today through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances providing a few light showers, even a thunderstorm. Dry midweek under high pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 405 AM Sunday... Minor flooding continues across portions of NE Kentucky. Waters will recede slowly in many locations. High pressure will provide mostly clear skies today and tonight. This will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 70s lowlands ranging to around 70F higher elevations. Dry conditions will continue through tonight. Areas of fog could be possible later overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 435 AM Sunday... Monday brings a reinforcing shot of cooler air on a weak, dry cold front that will be hardly noticeable. High pressure passes south of the area late Monday and Monday evening. A stronger reinforcing cold front and upper level short wave trough cross overnight Monday night and Tuesday. Models have come into better agreement on this being the last and strongest of several short wave troughs moving through, and that it can garner enough moisture for the chance for showers and thunderstorms, the best chance for thunderstorms in the heat of the day Tuesday midday and afternoon. The timing of the exodus of the system is such that showers and thunderstorms will die down and/or move out of the area early Tuesday evening. High pressure builds in Tuesday night for a clear, calm night, which then sets up a gorgeous day on Wednesday, with bountiful sunshine and comfortably low humidity, especially for late June. As the high exits Wednesday night, a return southerly flow of warmer and more humid air ensues. Central guidance temperatures accepted, below normal early on, then getting closer to normal Wednesday afternoon and night.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 435 AM Sunday... Upper level low flattens this period, as surface high pressure exits. This results in a low level south to southwest flow of increasingly warm and humid air, beneath westerly upper level flow. With ripples in the upper level flow, this will bring an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms into the middle Ohio Valley Thursday, and then throughout the area on Friday, the thunderstorms being mainly diurnally driven. The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases further Saturday, as a cold front, and stronger upper level short wave trough, approach. This feature may push on through the area on Sunday. Central guidance temperatures accepted, which are a little above normal. The latest MEX is even higher for highs Thursday and Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Sunday... IR satellite imagery show mostly clear skies across the region. Dry conditions as a consequence of a building high pressure will prevail through Sunday. Abundant low level moisture persists over the area as dewpoints remains in the 60s. However, there will be a gentle breeze that can prevent dense fog formation overnight. Therefore, went with VFR conditions mostly everywhere except MVFR at EKN. Diurnal low level cu should develop this afternoon dissipating around sunset. Widespread VFR conditions will continue tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation tonight may be more widespread. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L M H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in river valley fog early Monday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ

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