Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221736 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1236 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. CLIPPER/TURNING COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL...MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. STILL HOLDING ONTO A CHANCE OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL...CALM NIGHT ON TAP...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CREATING WINTRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL LOOKING LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY...SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND LOOKING LIKE MOSTLY RAIN IN THE FRIDAY PERIOD...EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET...WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE REVERSED COURSE A BIT TAKING THIS SYSTEM BACK EASTWARD...SO WITH THE FLIP FLOPPING KEPT FORECAST FAIRLY SIMILAR. DID RAISE TEMPS A TAD WHICH DECREASED OVERALL EXPECTED SNOWFALL...BUT THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE ONE OF THOSE INSTANCES WHERE A DEGREE HERE OR THERE WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL INCH DIFFERENCES IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE SAME GOES FOR THE TRACK OF THE STORM...SO AT THIS TIME JUST BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME POTENTIAL SNOW ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH VARIED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A MINOR TREND IN FORECAST MODELS TODAY...FOR THE CLIPPER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE FURTHER NORTH...THUS A BIT MILDER HERE IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...LIKED OUR IDEA YESTERDAY OF POPS HIGHER THAN WPC AND OS...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING IN WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE WANING BY TUESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR. LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POSSIBLE HAZARD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS...WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2500 FEET. ISOLD -SHSN ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 23Z...INCLUDING AT KEKN. OTHERWISE...GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER LONGER...THROUGH AROUND 12Z. AFTER 18Z...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS TO VFR MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...SL

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