Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 241745
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
145 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above
normal this weekend. The next shot at showers arrives Sunday
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...
Mainly quiet in the warm sector tonight and much of tomorrow.
There will be intervals of clouds through the period,
particularly late tonight and tomorrow morning. For temps, we
rolled on the high side of guidance tonight and tomorrow which
was well clustered to begin with. We may hit 80 along and south
of the I64 corridor if we can get enough sun in the afternoon.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Friday...
With a warm front set up to our north, generally looking at warm
temperatures through the short term. Saturday should be mostly
dry, although do have some low end POPs creeping into the west
by evening. This is tied to a nearly stacked low pressure system
moving across the Mississippi River Valley Saturday night and
weakening/opening as it crosses the Great Lakes on Sunday. Have
fairly high POPs on Sunday as an occluding cold front pushes
through. Have POPs decreasing Sunday night as the surface
boundary heads NE. But keep some slight chance to low chance
POPs going since we maintain a fairly moist flow as another
system starts sliding across the Central Plains.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...
A fairly quick moving surface low and 500mb shortwave trough
crosses Monday night into Tuesday with likely POPs. Went mostly
dry Wednesday and Wednesday night, with POPs ramping back up
Thursday as another surface/500mb low begins to move across the
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period.
Wednesday should be the coolest day with some northwest flow
resulting in highs fairly close to normal. Stuck very close to a
consensus blend through the period for highs and lows.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...
VFR through the period with some mid and high clouds in the warm
sector. Generally light southwest flow tonight becoming
southerly on Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Restrictions are likely with the advance of cold front Sunday
night and early Monday.