Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211502 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1002 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through the weekend. Upper trough Sunday. Stronger upper low Sunday night and Monday, exiting Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 950 AM Saturday... Prolonged the areas of dense fog across the Western Appalachian Valleys for a few more hours this morning. Visible imagery clearly shows fog entrenched in the mountain valleys this morning and the edges have not dissipated much as of 1430Z, so current thinking is that we will not see it lift in these areas until about noon. Also went ahead and updated sky cover based on latest METSAT and trends as mid and upper level clouds continue to push northward with overrunning ahead of our next system. As of 540 AM Saturday... Although the last hourly updated hi res models of the HRRR and RAP have suddenly shifted the precip shield of the upper disturbance northward over our area later today, will not jump on raising pops at this time. Issues are that the NAM is still confined to the mountains, it is only one model run so far of the HRRR and RAP, and the strong MCS along the Gulf coast with the disturbance should help to suppress the rain shield somewhat. Thus, little change to the current forecast. As of 305 AM Saturday... This period will be dominated by a warm and deep moist southwesterly flow, well ahead of a strong upper low emerging into the Plains states later today and tonight. One leading upper disturbance will pass mostly south and east of the area this afternoon and evening. Models place the northern edge of the precip shield just touching our central and southern mountains this afternoon and evening. Will place chance pops there for showers, while cannot rule out a sprinkle elsewhere. In any case, any precip will be light. A second stronger upper trough ahead of the upper low will lift northeast toward our area later tonight, bringing a better chance of showers into southern areas later tonight. Even with considerable clouds today, temperatures will be quite warm again with highs well into the 60s. Look for a very mild night with lows dipping to just below 50 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Looking at a significant, long duration rain maker through the short term with a deepening upper level low rotating northeastward from the deep south. Two distinct waves of energy will bring the rain. The first is an upper level trough oriented west to east, moving northward, and the second is the parent low. NAM showing strong low level frontogenesis Sunday night, and good upper level support in the form of Q vector convergence over the northeastern CWA. Right now, will handle the potential for flooding in the HWO, but high QPF amounts over the short term with good basin coverage could be problematic. All of this will occur in the warm sector of the surface frontal system associated with the upper low, so there is need to determine the efficacy of the dynamic cooling in terms of snow potential. Core of the upper low will need to be in close proximity to the CWA for snow to occur, which will primarily be in the highest elevations. Rain otherwise. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... System exits, pulling a colder airmass into the area, but only chances for snow will remain in the mountains. A brief recovery to the temperatures back above normal comes Wednesday, with the next cold front not far behind, and a wholesale airmass change heading for the end of the week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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12Z Saturday thru 12Z Sunday... As of 105 AM Saturday... A deep moist southerly flow will prevail this period with abundant clouds. An upper disturbance will pass mostly south and east of the area this afternoon and evening, with another upper disturbance approaching from the southwest by Sunday morning. Lack of thicker clouds across the north at 11Z, along with near calm winds and wet ground, continues to bring IFR river valley fog, affecting PKB, CKB ,EKN. Otherwise, ceilings are generally of the high variety ABV 12,0000 feet. The fog will dissipate by 14Z as boundary layer winds bring to stir. VFR ceilings around 4000 feet will be the rule by 16Z and continue most of the afternoon with diurnal heating. However, given all the boundary layer moisture, a temporary MVFR deck may initially form before lifting to VFR by noon. Expect scattered VFR showers mainly over the southern mountains this afternoon and evening, and sprinkles elsewhere with the first upper disturbance. After 02Z ceilings generally aoa 7000 feet with warm advection ahead of the next system, and possible IFR fog at EKN by 08Z. Otherwise, expect scattered showers to move into the southern coal fields and southern mountains by 12Z Sunday with lowering ceilings. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog dissipation early this morning and reforming later Saturday night may vary. Showers this afternoon may be farther north than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday with another system.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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