Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291722 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 122 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR AS OF 17Z. HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SE OHIO AND IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD ON LIGHT SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND...AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN US WILL DRIFT TOWARD FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH...DID UP POPS TO MID-CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE ARE SEEING TODAY. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE AT H5 EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND JUICIER AIRMASS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHWEST SPREADING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST OH INTO MONDAY. THE WAVE WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SOME DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY ELSEWHERE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OHIO...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A BIT BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY AS CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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