Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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932 FXUS61 KRLX 220721 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough keeps clouds showers and clouds around into Saturday. High pressure late Saturday into Sunday. Re-enforcing moisture-starved cold front Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 137 AM Saturday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 1040 pm Friday... Forecast on track with slow overnight improvement from the west. As of 810 PM Friday... Forecast on track with moist, chilly air in place on back side of exiting low pressure system. As of 130 PM Friday... Upper level trough centered right over CWA early this afternoon, with showers across the east drifting north, and rain across west drifting southeast. This trough is starting to become more negatively tilted, and we are seeing some development of the rain across SE Ohio due to this. Expect an area of moderate rain drifting westward across the CWA into tonight. Generally thinking around 0.5 inch of additional rain with this. 850mb temps starting to crash as cold air arrives. This should keep clouds and some precipitation around through much of the night across the eastern half of the CWA. With 850mb temps dropping below 0C overnight, expect highest elevations to see a gradual switch over to snow instead of rain. Moisture is becoming pretty limited by this time, but think the highest ridges could get a dusting of snow accumulation...mainly on grass and elevated surfaces. The 850mb temperature trough maxes out from 12Z-15Z, after which any lingering precipitation in the mountains should end with just an isolated shower possible Saturday. Clouds will gradually break up from west to east through the day as surface high pressure begins nosing in from the west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 AM Saturday... Surface high pressure is overhead to start the period with mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing above normal. Guidance is in agreement that a weak cold front will pass on Sunday night into Monday morning, however the current thinking is most areas will be dry with only a slight chance of a shower in the mountains. Flow will likely be strong enough Sunday night to prevent fog formation...however we could see widespread fog overnight Monday with weak flow and mostly clear skies expected overnight.
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As of 315 AM Saturday... The upper ridge continues will be overhead through at least mid week. Guidance was in fairly good agreement with the system towards the end of the week and then the 00Z guidance came in. Now, some of the guidance is progressive with the front pushing through while other solutions hold the surface high overhead and this would keep us dry. For now I used a blend of operational and ensemble guidance for days 5 - 7 and will keep PoP around 60 for now.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 137 AM Saturday... With a low pressure system exiting to the northeast, gusty north to northwest flow will continue to bring light rain showers or drizzle to the northeast mountains at least through 12Z. Under north northwest flow, IFR ceilings should continue at BKW overnight. The same effect could happen at EKN, but intermittent light showers could affect expected conditions. Otherwise, MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Drier air will filter into the area during the day on Saturday, with the help of daytime mixing and the approach of high pressure. Any dense fog or low stratus overnight should gradually dissipate by mid morning with widespread VFR conditions spreading from west to east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in drizzle, especially in the mountains, overnight into early Saturday morning. While confidence is high in an improving trend during the day on Saturday, the timing may vary. Wind gusts will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. Missing. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.