Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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562 FXUS61 KRLX 051637 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1137 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TURNING COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1130 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED...SO DROPPED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FADING AND THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. 9 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY...EAST INTO WV TODAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT MILD TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST WITH CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE FOR THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ONCE A MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FILLS WHILE PASSING...THEIR WILL BE A MARKED TRANSITION IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA JUST AFTER 12Z MONDAY...IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG...WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TAKING MORE OF A TUMBLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS OPPOSED TO 15Z MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COLDER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. INCORPORATED A STEADY DOSE OF THE MAV GUIDANCE IN THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RECENT TRACK RECORD. NO NON DIURNAL ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE. ALSO BROUGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX THRESHOLD UP TO 36F IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOW TO COOL HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO INITIAL SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE INITIAL LOBE AROUND THE BROAD TROF SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND MAY HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF. MAY LEAD TO SOME ADVISORIES...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE...CONSIDERING 12 HOUR CRITERIA... MARGINAL. SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME. POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEM MAY STREAK SE ON DAY 7...BUT FOR NOW...WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTH. SO DRY ON THURSDAY. IN THE PAST 24 HRS...THE GFS CERTAINLY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR. 12Z GFS TODAY MUCH SLOWER BRINGING THE MINUS 10C 850 MB TEMP...NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THINK 12Z GFS MAY HAVE BACKED OFF TOO MUCH. SO TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12-13Z. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY...EAST INTO WV. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE AREAS OF CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND WV. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH LITTLE CLOUDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...ARJ

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