Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160619 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 219 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure builds for the weekend, and lingers through most of next week, with warm and slightly more humid air.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Saturday... Forecast on track for the most part. Updated sky grids to reflect eroding mid-level cloud cover across central portion of area and fog formation. Tweaked mountain PoPs near the end of the period as they come into the near-term. As of 1005 PM Friday... High pressure remains in place with a fairly well capped subsidence inversion. On Saturday, short term models hint that cap remains in place. However, there is a downtrend in amount of available low level moisture. So thinking is we may be able to see some more breaks in sunshine. Decided not to fiddle too much with Saturday max temps and keep current forecast in play. High temps on Saturday will depend heavily on how much sun manages to show up. Also, dynamic forcing nil in this capped environment, but there should be enough available diurnal forcing over the mountains to allow for some sprinkles over the eastern mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 210 AM Saturday... Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will lead to slightly above normal afternoon temperatures with near normal lows. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible both Sunday and Monday afternoon, mainly across the mountains.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 210 AM Saturday... Weak high pressure continues through the bulk of the long term forecast with highs running just above normal for mid to late September. Models show indications of a upper level ripple or two drifting by, but hard to time these so have kept POPs on the low side of a consensus blend.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Saturday... BKN to OVC060 deck is eroding across the central portions of the area allowing for the formation of fog as forecast at this hour. Moist boundary layer and calm winds ensure low vsbys for at least a portion of the overnight with fog hanging for IFR/LIFR conditions through the early morning. Conditions improve to VFR from 13Z-15Z with improving vsby and eventually cigs as fog lifts into CIGNO or a BKN VFR deck. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High confidence in persistent fog. Medium confidence in timing of improvement. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog formation vs low cigs could vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L L H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M L H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR expected in morning river valley fog through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...KMC/MC SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MC

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