Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271955 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 355 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLDER AIR ESTABLISHES CONTROL THIS PERIOD. SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF STRATOCU THERE. THIS FEATURE WILL LUMBER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROADLY DEFINED. WHILE SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SFC REFLECTION...WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS AS WELL TONIGHT. WHILE THE BROADENING FEATURE MAKES IT TOUGHER TO RESOLVE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE...IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE MOST FAVORED. WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND GETS EVEN COLDER...THE STEEP LATE MARCH LAPSE RATES RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO MELT THE HYDRO METEORS INTO THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF AROUND AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE SFC FEATURE COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT WAS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. -8C H85 TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE REPLACED BY -14C ON SAT. USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS SAT...CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST EXCEPT A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONCENUS GUID THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS ON. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CU FILLED IN ACROSS THE N BUT WAS STARTING TO DO SO ACROSS THE S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRATOCU WAS MOST ENHANCED ACROSS OHIO JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE REMAINING NEAR 3 KFT IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES EKN AND BKW THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INITIALLY SHARP...WILL LUMBER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE BROAD...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A SECOND AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT. WHILE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY...LIKELY OUT OF THE ENHANCED STRATOCU THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS...MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN LOWLANDS BUT THEN ALSO ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. MVFR MORNING CU IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE CU BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR UNDER THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON SAT. NW SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...AND OTHERWISE REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW SFC FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY SRN WV RIDGES SAT IN THE WAKE OF A SFC FEATURE MOVING THROUGH. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT NW...GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD VARY. LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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