Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240204 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1004 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses...before the next cold front approaches later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1000 PM Tuesday... While still very thin, leading cirrus arrived a bit faster than previous forecast, so bumped up sky cover just a touch overnight. As of 145 PM Tuesday... Flat cu field centered over the high terrain will dissipate this evening for a mostly clear sky areawide. Suspect some patchy dense river valley fog will form once again tonight...though the low level flow increases out of the SE near 20 kts late helping to keep it in check some. It will still be a comfy night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. A warm frontal boundary will cross on Wednesday with an increase in cloud cover as well as humidity. Kept the idea of isolated shra mainly over SE OH/NE KY and the mountains. Instability appears to be lacking a bit but still cannot rule out an afternoon tsra. Highs tomorrow look to top out in the mid 80s with 70s in the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM Tuesday... High pressure firmly in place for the majority of the forecast period though with increasingly warm days, the chances for showers and thunderstorms increase especially in the afternoons. Upper level disturbances migrate through the region, but only act to increase the potential for showers mainly in the north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 335 PM Tuesday... Stubborn high pressure continues through early next week though decaying fronts do erode in the regions general vcnty. One thing to keep an eye on is a developing tropical system that is currently progged to move through the Gulf of Mexico during the middle part of next week and may eventually provide a break to our dry pattern. For now, have only slightly bumped PoPs in the extended though with very little confidence. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Tuesday... 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday... Cu field quickly dissipating across the east, but already have some cirrus entering from the west. These cirrus are troublesome tonight, as they will play havoc with fog formation. Went with IFR fog at CRW and EKN, with cirrus keeping IFR fog at bay elsewhere. However, rather low confidence in the whole evolution of fog through the night. Otherwise clouds will be thickening and lowering Wednesday, with an isolated t-shower possible. Light winds tonight will become more southerly for Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/24/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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