Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131415 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1015 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. SURFACE TROUGH/REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1010 AM UPDATE...MOVED LIKELY POPS OUT FASTER THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SECONDARY COLD FRONT A BIT TOUGH TO PICK OUT WITH SFC OBS USING TEMPS...BUT GOING BY SFC PRESSURE FIELD AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT...IT APPEARS THIS FRONT IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN OH AT 07Z. MEANWHILE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTHEAST CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT A QUICK PROGRESSION OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NO HUGE CHANGES WITH REGARD TO PREV FCST PRECIP CHANCES BUT DID SPEED THINGS UP JUST A BIT MORE. HAVE THE BACK EDGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ENTERING THE SE OHIO ZONES BY 15Z THIS MORNING...PROGRESSING EAST TO NEAR THE I-79 CORRIDOR BY 18Z...AND FINALLY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. GENERALLY EXPECTING ABOUT A TENTH TO PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAYBE A BIT MORE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE FROM PREV FCST WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY. BASED ON YESTERDAY/S OBSERVED MAX TEMPS ALONG WITH 925MB/850MB TEMPS TODAY PROGGED TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...AND NO ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED VERSUS YESTERDAY...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS A FEW LOW 70S CLOSER TO AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CLOUDS INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AND AFTER 06Z SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MUCH COOLER NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTHERN LOWLANDS TO THE LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF/CMC/NAM MODELS SHOW AN H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA INTO SOUTHEAST OH BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A COLD FRONT TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ADJUSTED CHANCE POPS ACCORDING TO NAM SOLUTION. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WEAK FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PATTERN REMAINS COOLER IN NATURE WITH EARLY FALL TYPE WEATHER PREVAILING. IN THE END...USED WPC HEAVILY AS GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND HAVE A 7 DAY FORECAST IN TOTAL WITH NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GRIDS IN ANY DAY. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED...WITH LESS COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY A GENERAL MVFR AREA-WIDE BUT ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND OTHERS STILL VFR. BUT AGAIN...OVERALL EXPECTING A MVFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS IN LOW STRATUS AND OCCASIONAL VIS RESTRICTION. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH VFR NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY AROUND 18Z- 19Z...AND THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BY AROUND THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME. AS USUAL...LOW STRATUS WILL HANG ON LONGER IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT EVEN HERE SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AROUND 00Z SUN. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS EARLY SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY MAY VARY FROM TAF. FOG AND/OR REDUCTION IN VIS OVERNIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M L L H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...MZ/50 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...50

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