Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201324 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 924 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm, very humid air today. Cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Cool canadian high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. Cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 930 am Saturday... No changes this morning. Previous Discussion... At least one more day of hot and humid weather...before a cold front approaches late tonight/early Sunday. Area in the warm sector of low pressure that will move northeast into Canada today...sweeping a cold front through the area...mainly on Sunday...with frontal boundary progged to be near the Ohio River at the end of the near term period. Showers and thunderstorms...isolated in nature this afternoon in the heating...increasing in coverage later tonight as cold front approaches. Still looking at brief heavy downpours with any storms...and storms that pop up this afternoon in heating will be rather slow moving...until flow increases later on with approach of front. With a lack of strong dynamics and timing of front...not expecting severe weather at this time. Sunday will start out with showers and thunderstorms...with frontal boundary in vicinity of Ohio River...and plenty of low cloud cover across the CWA...with gradual clearing occurring across the north and west...more into the short term period as drier air gradually filters in behind the front. With the expected cloud cover/timing of front...kept overnight lows on the warm side of guidance everywhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 am Saturday... Other than the models slowing the cold front down just a bit as it moves across the area Sunday...we do not look for much change in the current forecast for this period. The cold front still exits the mountains Sunday afternoon with showers and storms mostly ending upon frontal passage...and even some sunshine returns Sunday afternoon...especially in the west. As drier air moves in behind the front Sunday...any initial cooling of temperatures under cloud cover will recover somewhat in the afternoon as sunshine increases from the west. Still...compared to Saturday...it will be cooler...with highs around 80 degrees in the low lands. High pressure will settle in Sunday night and slowly shift east of the area by Tuesday. This will bring dry and cooler air for Monday. Despite abundant sunshine...highs Monday will mainly be in the upper 70s for the low lands. Even as the high pressure center shifts east of the area Tuesday...with a warming trend back into the 80s...dry weather with abundant sunshine will prevail. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 pm Friday... High pressure brings a cooler, less humid reprieve for the first half of the extended period, Wednesday. While low level moisture may start to return northward on the backside of the exiting high Wednesday, the weather will remain dry until Thursday, when another cold front approaches from the west. The onset of the precipitation looks to be a bit fuzzy at this distance, with the chance gradually increasing Thursday and Thursday night, a part of the forecast that will likely need fine tuned with time. Friday carries the best chance for showers and thunderstorms associated with this front, with the front itself progged to cross Friday night. Temperatures were close to a blend of the MEX, blended and central guidance with no major changes. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 540 AM Saturday... Widespread LIFR fog and stratus across much of the area. Expecting a general improvement to VFR after 15-16Z...although mountainous sites may be slower...such as KEKN and KBKW. After 16Z...light southwest surface winds with improvement to VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected after 18Z...with more numerous showers and thunderstorms developing after 21Z as a cold front approaches the region. Expect brief heavy downpours...gusty winds...and brief MVFR and IFR restrictions in vicinity of storms. After 03Z...expect widespread development of MVFR and IFR cigs for remainder of TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Stratus and fog could be slower to improve to VFR this morning than currently forecast. Timing of showers and thunderstorms may differ from forecast. Timing and development of MVFR and IFR cigs overnight may differ from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L M H M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M H H L BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR stratus possible Sunday morning...with fog possible most mornings early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...SL/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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