Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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412 FXUS61 KRLX 141957 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 257 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure into Friday. A clipper system then passes north of the area Friday night. Weak system brings light rain Sunday. Another clipper crosses Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday... Dirty high pressure building over the area, but appears that some cold air stratus and left over lake effect clouds will become trapped under the high. With patches of clouds floating around, it leads to low confidence tonight on where clouds will be. This also makes overnight lows rather tricky. With winds becoming light, thinking there will be enough holes for temperatures to drop near dew points. A wave moves well north of the area on Friday. It will create a little moisture increase in the north in the afternoon. This could be enough for few flakes due to the cold 850 mb temperatures, so will keep some small pops. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Thursday... Upper heights build into the region Friday night and Saturday, allowing for an overall warming trend. S/W trof approaching the area weakens as ridging builds across the southern states. I still expect some light rain with this system Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Thursday... The warming trend that began in the short term will carry over in the extended before cold air comes back late Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper trof temporary makes a return across the region.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Thursday... A cold advection stratus/cumulus MVFR/VFR deck will remain across the area this afternoon, gradually rising. Portions of this deck are expected to remain overnight, gradually sinking back into the MVFR range, especially in the mountains. The deck will gradually raise again on Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location of stratus deck overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Another round of snow is expected across the northern portion of the area Friday night, with IFR conditions possible in heavier snow showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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