Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151657 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1157 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak front crosses today with some upslope snow in the mountains. Cool under northwesterly flow aloft tonight through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1100 AM Wednesday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 600 AM Wednesday... Moist plume from southern U.S. cyclone continues streaming in with a mix of rain and snow, mainly for the southern mountains and into VA. Expect precipitation to end as the plume shifts south this morning. Shortly thereafter, a weak front will push through from the north as large southern Canada upper low slowly shifts east. Moisture will be limited and H850 temps will be marginally cold, but we should see snow in the mountains, most notably across the northern mountains where 1 to 2 inches accumulation is possible. Winds will swing around to the northwest as the front passes and colder air will begin filtering in. There may be scattered sunshine along the OH River and west during the afternoon before additional wrap around moisture and cloudiness pushes back in from the north during the evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 AM Wednesday... Few lingering upslope snow showers across the area early Thursday, but will gradually taper off as the day progresses as the flow becomes less favorable, and moisture in the crystal growth zone erodes. Only light, generally less than half an inch, additional accumulations expected. Continued cool, but dry, Thursday and Friday under northwesterly flow aloft as upper trough remains across the east, with strong ridge across the central U.S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 110 AM Wednesday... Moderating temperatures over the weekend as upper heights build across the area in response to approaching upper shortwave trough, with showers overspreading the area by the end of the week. Another front, with additional rounds of showers will approach early next week. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 600 AM Wednesday... With dry FROPA almost along the eastern mountains, northwest flow behind it will continue to bring cooler and drier conditions to the area through the period. The exception will be at EKN and the northeast mountains where lingering moisture and northwest winds will produce upslope snow there through tonight to create MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, IFR conditions will prevail through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility could vary in precipitation today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ

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