Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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795 FXUS61 KRLX 211438 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1038 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure in vicinity today...then shifts to our southeast by tonight. Mid/upper level disturbance lingers into Sunday. High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 am update... Forecast on track with showers slowly making their way back into the middle Ohio Valley just ahead of the upper level short wave trough axis. Previous discussion... As of 07z...rain amounts mostly in the .5 to 1 inch range over the past 12 hours. The new spring vegetation is loving it. This main shield was exiting the mountain counties. Surface low in the vicinity of Hts. Expecting the low level circulation to lift into north central WV by midday. The surface low along the Carolina coast takes over by this evening. Wind flow swings to southwest under the surface low...then a wind shift to northwest late today into this evening. The overnight rain has saturated the low levels...so low clouds may try to form for dawn. Thinking clouds lift a bit diurnally, but then lower late today and evening with wind shift. Model soundings showing some thin cape of a few hundred developing this afternoon under the mid/upper level disturbance with equilibrium level around 25 thsd. So redevelopment of showers with likely pops during the afternoon. Precipitable water still around an inch... would not be surprised to see a local quarter to half inch of rain. In the weak northwest flow...tried to develop low stratus with fog over the mountain counties tonight. The northwest flow more efficient in bringing some drying into our southeast Ohio tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The overall trend across the short term forecast is one of a clearing/drying pattern as an upper level low cuts off and settles over the Outer Banks area of North Carolina. This will be a fairly slow process as it does so...with the synoptic scale pattern getting backed up a bit as a result. Upper level ridging over the central part of the CONUS will be slow to reach the middle Ohio Valley...but it will get there...eventually. From a sensible weather point of view...weak disturbances on the back side of the upper low could keep isolated convection going over the northern mountains of WV. Downplaying the aggressiveness of this in the models just a bit...and will use only slight chance for the mountains Monday. Meanwhile...the bulk of the lowlands and southern mountains will be clearing...with a slow warming trend in the forecast as low level temperatures creep back upwards...as do the heights aloft. By the end of the short term/Tuesday...the forecast is completely dry...approaching 80F in the lowland areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC high pressure will be overhead for the start of the period but the fair weather will be short lived. After Wednesday the Guidance shows that a stationary boundary will settle over the area and this will keep unsettled conditions into the weekend with several short waves moving across the area in zonal flow. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Just after 10z...surface low near Athens Ohio. Low level flow has veered to southwest to the south of the low center...across southern WV. The saturated low levels in the wake of the overnight rain...is making the forecast of ceilings difficult. Left confidence at low. In that southwest flow...still expect ceilings to lower across southern WV including HTS-CRW-and BKW this morning...before a diurnal rise after 15z. Yet...only a few spotty showers will still be seen this morning. Have showers with an embedded thunderstorm developing 15z to 18z associated with the mid/upper level disturbance. Figuring more cellular showers today, compared to the large area of rain/showers last night. Can not completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm in WV this afternoon, but not included in specific 12z tafs. After 00z Sunday, have the lingering pcpn mostly CKB-CRW on east and going more toward light rain and drizzle as low level flow becomes weak northwest. Have widespread ifr ceilings developing 00z to 06z Sunday...then persisting 06z to 12z Sunday. With stratus ceilings developing in the lowlands...kept most vsbys in the mvfr range. Over the higher terrain though...including Bkw...lower vsby expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR ceilings may develop in PKB vicinity today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR in stratus and perhaps fog may linger for a few hours Sunday morning. IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...KTB

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