Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 182334 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 634 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH. CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM CROSSES WEDNESDAY. SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IN THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT -- 850S NEAR -20C -- STILL SQUEEZING OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS FROM A CLOUD DECK THAT IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUN MIXED WITH SOME CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. FLURRIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE IN. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AS WELL. THIS LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW HIGH POPS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. WENT MAINLY FLURRIES FROM PKB-CKB WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT/SLUG OF MOISTURE/RIPPLE ALOFT LIFTS THROUGH OHIO. STILL PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS...SO JUST KEPT IT CLOUDS...WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS. 850MB TEMPS ARE WARMING BY THIS POINT...SO DO NOT EVEN THINK ANY FLURRIES WILL SQUEEZE OUT FROM THE CLOUDS AS THEY DRIFT NORTHEAST. BLENDED IN THE MAV FOR TONIGHT...LIKING ITS DEPICTION OF COOLER TEMPS IN NE KY WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF RADIATIVE COOLING. TRENDED TOWARDS THE MET FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...LIKING ITS COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT SUN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING BACK COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH H850 MINUS 5C TEMPERATURE LINE SOUTH OF WV BY 06Z FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN FROZEN IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS COLD UNDER A WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT H850...ENOUGH TO BRING THE READINGS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LOWLANDS...BUT REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN TOWARD MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH...IN COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL OPEN UP THE FORECAST AREA TO AN INCREASE IN GULF FED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. EURO AND GFS MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SET MAINLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR CHANGE TO STEP BACK ON POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AS ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL STABILITY AROUND TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG TERM MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DUE TO THE SUBTLE UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD....USED USED WPC VALUES WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES. COULD EVEN SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS THINKING THEY WOULD NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY ENOUGH. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TOMORROW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE MVFR AT NORTHERN SITES COMPARED TO CURRENT TAFS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...JW

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