Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170211 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1009 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front front will push through the area Thursday into Friday and bring unsettled conditions. Generally drier afterwards until Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1009 PM Wednesday... Based on current dew points and latest mos guidance products, have raised overnight lows slightly across the north and mountains. As of 555 PM Wednesday... Updated the chance of precipitation and sky grids for this evening to better capture satellite and radar trends. Also lowered winds overnight in the mountain valleys. As of 200 PM Wednesday... We will be well within the warm sector of system tracking into the Great Lakes for most of the day tomorrow. Cold front starts pushing into the region late tomorrow afternoon with current consensus of guidance having the front near the Ohio Valley around 0Z Friday. Could see a few scattered showers out ahead of the front during the day tomorrow with a weak prefrontal trough pushing through. Otherwise the heaviest rain will not arrive until after 0Z Friday. PWATs will be in the 2" range and any showers and storms will likely contain locally heavy rainfall, but any flash flood concerns are very low at this time. The best dynamics will pass just to our north of our CWA, but our NW`rn West Virginia Counties and Eastern Ohio Counties will be on the fringe of best lift. Have decided to leave the HWO as is for now with low probability of Flash Flooding in those areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... Ahead of an approaching cold front, moisture will increase to provide some isolated showers or storms. Models show the cold front will cross some time around 03Z Friday. Some storms may contain heavy showers as pwats will be around 2.2 inches. Although the probability for severe weather is marginal, there will be plenty of deep layered shear of about 40 knots, strong boundary layer convergence and sfc CAPE values exceeding 1600 J/Kg. With this moisture content any slow moving storm of training over the same areas could present a risk for water problems and isolated strong to severe storms. High pressure builds for the weekend to provide mostly clear skies and weak flow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... High pressure remains over the region through Sunday. Moisture will be in the increase Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. The cold front crosses some time later Wednesday to Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 555 PM Wednesday... Some VFR clouds are possible overnight as a boundary pushes northward across the area. Believe that light winds by morning will prevent fog in the Ohio River counties, while decoupled mountain valleys should form some fog. The density of the fog in the mountains may be effected by some clouds. A cumulus deck will form on Thursday. With increased moisture over the area Thursday, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium confidence overnight with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog intensity and coverage could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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