Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 071921 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 221 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure persists tonight. A cold front crosses early Thursday morning, followed by much colder weather through Saturday. Next system crosses Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 219 PM Wednesday... A weaK high pressure will continue to provide dry and clear conditions tonight. Satellite images show widespread clearing over the region, and mid to upper clouds far away upstream. These clouds could reach southeast OH by Thursday morning. Clear skies, decoupled atmosphere and boundary layer winds at 5 to 10 knots, expect radiational cooling dropping temperatures into the low 30s. This could produce frost instead of fog. Low level ceilings could develop during the predawn hours early Thursday morning. These clouds should dissipate by mid morning. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Colder air will infiltrate into the region on Thursday as an upper trough deepens across the area. Temperatures will remain either steady, or gradually fall as the day progresses on Thursday, with light snow showers developing later in the day Thursday and Thursday night, mainly across the higher terrain counties, with flurries elsewhere. Friday looks to be continued cold, along with additional light snow showers in favored upslope regions as a more favorable northwesterly flow takes hold. Still looking at light accumulations,Medium into Wednesday morning, then generally an inch or two across the higher terrain, with little to no accumulations elsewhere. Snow showers will taper off later in the day Friday and Friday night, as flow becomes less favorable, and weak ridging takes hold over the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Milder air to take hold over the weekend as weak upper ridging builds in response to approaching sw trough/low pressure system, which will spread light rain and snow showers back into the region by late Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1150 AM Wednesday... No changes necessary. As of 645 AM Wednesday... Morning stratocu will go MVFR at times this morning, before mixing out this afternoon, as weak high pressure briefly builds into the area. As the next cold front approaches from the west tonight, mid level clouds from the associated upper level short wave trough will overspread the area. This should be enough to keep fog from forming. MVFR to IFR stratocu may form in the mountains toward 12Z Thursday. Light west surface flow will diminish today, and be calm to light and variable tonight. Flow aloft will be light to moderate west to northwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and occurrence of MVFR morning cu may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night in the mountains, && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ

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