Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261418 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1015 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA THIS EVENING. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR IN ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 14Z... CERTAINLY AN EVOLVING PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST. THINKING NEW DEVELOPING LIKELY ON WESTERN FLANK OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY DURING THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME. THE MORNING ACTIVITY HAS DROPPED ABOUT 1 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. ALSO...THINKING SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. SO OVERALL...SEVERAL CLUSTERS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TO 30 TO 35 THSD FT WITH FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K. FIGURING CELL MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALSO IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE...BUT KNOTS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE DEW POINTS APPROACHING AROUND 60 IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 18Z. NEED TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN OUT OF OUR WET CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON...PLEASANTS...TYLER...DODDRIDGE COUNTIES. IF THAT DOES DOES NOT BECOME APPARENT...WILL CONSIDER FLASH FLOOD WATCH. INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...WHEN POPS ARE THE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS EVENING. BASING OUR FORECAST ON FRONT REACHING NEAR PKB TO CKB AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY...AND REACHING EKN TO CRW TO HTS AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY... THEN STARTING TO RUN OUT OF GAS. HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE NORTH OF THAT FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN...PROVIDING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF VARIOUS FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY. WILL ALSO KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD FOR CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING HOLD. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST DIMINISHES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SYSTEM OUT TO OUR WEST, BUT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS DIFFER. THE GFS BRINGS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. IN ANY CASE THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. WITH THIS SCENARIO, INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND KEPT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AROUND 30 KT OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET SNEAKS IN WITH LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLED. VFR THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD BE MORE THAN EXPECTED. IFR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY IN WAKE OF FRONT AS DEEP LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H M M M M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CEILINGS MAY ALSO FORM WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/JW NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JW

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