Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271840 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME. NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z. FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY. 850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90 DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z. FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND HTS. THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KTB

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