Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190636 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 236 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front brings showers and storms today. High pressure crosses Tuesday, but then we get back into warm, unsettled weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As 200 AM Monday... Surface front as of 06Z looks to be entering our southeast Ohio zones. This boundary will very slowly cross the area this morning, essentially waiting for a surface wave to cross along with the arrival of the trof axis, before the front gets shoved to the east. The coverage of rain has...for the most part...been tied closer to the front and wave thus far. This should continue to be the case over the next several hours before expanding in coverage with better upper support. Current thinking is most of the storm potential will be confined to central WV and points east through midday. Additional QPF of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area, with the highest amounts probably tied to convection. Given the lack of rainfall east of the Ohio River thus far, thinking is a watch is not needed with only isolated instances of flash flooding. Following fropa, clouds will break for some sunshine. As the upper trof axis approaches along with steepening low level lapse rates, models are showing some afternoon showers primarily across southeast Ohio and northern half of WV. Chances were kept low given the mid level capping in place though rolled with coverage to get scattered wording in wx grids. Clouds will break overnight, though some stratocu may linger across the north. Low level winds should keep dense fog at bay for the most part.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sunday... Cold front expected to be to the east of the CWA Monday night. There will still however be a chance of showers Monday night, particularly across the north, as an upper disturbance moves through the area. These additional showers should overall be light in nature and pose no additional water issues. High pressure with drier air will build in for the first part of Tuesday, however, another front will move through the area Tuesday afternoon and night, with additional showers and thunderstorms possible, although models differ on the amount of activity/moisture associated with this front. Cooler and drier air for Wednesday with a northwesterly flow. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday... Lots of uncertainty in the details in the extended period but overall looks like quite unsettled weather returns to the area. There is even the possibility of the remnants of a tropical low moving towards the area in the extended period, but there is lots of uncertainty in this. Regardless, looks like a period with high humidity, and showers and thunderstorms abound once again. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday... Surface front will slowly work thru the area...taking until 18z to clear the mountains. The coverage of showers will increase this morning as a surface wave approaches along with the front. Brief periods of IFR will be possible in the heaviest showers. Convection will mainly be confined to mountain terminals this morning with some stronger storms in the 16 to 19Z time frame. MVFR stratus will quickly mix out following fropa for a return to VFR conditions. Winds will become gusty midday and afternoon on good mixing. The upper trof axis will approach later this afternoon from the west with isolated to scattered showers across southeast OH and northern WV. These were left out of the TAFs at this distance given low chances. Some stratocu or stratus may develop across the mountains tonight providing for MVFR cigs. Otherwise mainly VFR as low level winds should mitigate fog. Should EKN clear out, then this would be the terminal most susceptible to IFR or worse fog late tonight. Light and variable expected tonight and Monday. Moderate southwest flow aloft tonight will become light west to southwest on Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 06/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR river valley fog possible Wednesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30

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