Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311841 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 241 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON ADN EARLY EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12 SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40. THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TOWARD MON MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA. BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCATTERED CU WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...JMV

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