Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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534 FXUS61 KRLX 241700 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1200 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm today. A strong cold front crosses pre-dawn Saturday morning, followed by cooler weather for the weekend. A couple systems next week with precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of noon Friday... Actually raised highs this record-breaking day one more notch. Also adjusted temperatures tonight in the warm air ahead of the cold front. As of 605 AM Friday... No changes this morning. As of 245 AM Friday... Have some good operational model agreement with the timing of the cold front tonight that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the CWA, generally after 06Z. Plenty of dynamics with this system, with an increasing low level jet and tightening 500mb height gradient in the trailing upper level low, but thermodynamic parameters lack a bit with dewpoints in the low 50s and no appreciable advection of moisture at 850mb. That said, there should be enough going on, warranting the slight risk in the far western CWA for the Day 1 outlook. Given the time of day, QLCS formation to the west may be on the gradual wane heading into our area during the overnight, but strong flows could also be enough to keep a line of storms going. This is reflected in the outlook and the ending of the slight risk over the far western zones. Prior to the front, could be looking at some all time record highs for February today with low 80s in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday... Good model agreement on strong north to south cold front vicinity central WV at 12Z Saturday, and quickly on the move eastward. It should clear the mountains by early afternoon. Good dynamics with the cold front and upper level support continue with the front, so that cannot rule out thunder chance with the rain showers ahead of the front mainly over eastern sections. However, severe thunderstorm chances look to be gone at the beginning of this period. There also will be a sharp tapering off of the showers behind the front associated with a dry slot. Precip chances will pick up again later in the day into Saturday night, with mainly snow showers in the northern mountains where good cold advection will combine with modest upslope flow and marginally deep moisture. Precip will end before Sunday morning as high pressure builds in. Thus, only minor snow accumulations of an inch or less is expected in the higher elevations by Sunday morning. Temperatures will be much cooler saturday, with temperatures falling behind the cold front, and cold enough to change rain showers to snow showers by evening over the higher northern mountain elevations. After a cold night Saturday night with decreasing clouds from west to east, Sunday will be only in the 40s under abundant sunshine. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 AM Friday... Changeable weather this period. High pressure will shift east of the area Sunday night, but not quite as cold with clouds increasing ahead of the next system. The next system will be the first in a series of low pressure systems moving across the area next week, under mainly zonal flow aloft. So, we expect modifying temperatures to above normal by mid week. Models are less bullish on precip with this lead system for Monday, as this upper system flattens out somewhat. Still, it pulls a good warm front northward so that will keep lower chance pops for rain showers. Thereafter, the next stronger system comes in mid week, though there are some timing differences. Will have the best chance for rain showers Wednesday. Another system affects us toward the end of the work week with more rain showers. Temperatures will be above normal mid to late week with these systems. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 605 AM Friday... Expecting the sky cover to be on the lower side during the first half of the forecast period through 00Z Saturday, prior to the arrival of a cold front in the later hours of the TAF. Cloud deck levels will stay on the higher side, above 7kft or so through this same time period, and should lower with the convection. Showers with thunderstorms possible, but not in prevailing for this issuance, will also be a late occurrence, generally after the 06Z Saturday time frame. Strong wind gusts possible with the convection later tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add TSRA to prevailing. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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