Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171939 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 239 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure passes south of the area through Thursday. Southwest flow of milder air Friday through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. Cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1110 AM Wednesday... Guidance show a broad high pressure located over the south central states, with a ridge extending northeast into KY and WV through Thursday. SFC obs indicate flurries still occurring at some sites. Models suggest that there still enough sfc to low level moisture over the area tonight. This moisture will continue squeezing against the mountains to produce flurries or light snow tonight. No additional snow accumulations expected. Weather charts show a broad sfc high pressure centered over the south central states, with a ridge extending northeast into KY and WV. This feature will keep light to calm flow overnight. With snow on the ground, and skies trying to clear from west to east overnight, temperatures are expected to plummet into the lower single digits lowlands, and below zero over the higher elevations northeast mountains. With the wind factor, over the elevated terrain will produce wind chill values from -3F to -20F. These conditions prompt the issuance of a Winter Weather advisory for dangerous wind chills tonight through 14Z Thursday. Went with the coldest guidance tweaking down some degrees over the classic cold spots. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Wednesday... Overall, short term forecast is very quiet with a warming trend as we head into the weekend. Ridging and high pressure is basically overhead through the entire period. This will moderate our temperatures nicely, with highs climbing into the low to mid 40s on Friday and mid to upper 40s on Saturday. Clouds will be on the increase Saturday afternoon as a warm front approaches from the southwest.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 240 PM Wednesday... Fairly good agreement among the guidance now with a warm front crossing on Saturday night into early Sunday morning. May see a few light rain showers through the day on Sunday, but for the most part we will be within the warm sector and relatively stable conditions aloft. Strong low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region by early Monday morning. This system will drag a cold front across the forecast area on Monday, with widespread rainfall looking more and more likely. PWATs are showing to be slightly anomalous in the latest GEFS runs so with the decent moisture, would not be surprised to see some spots get an inch of rain out of this. Rivers remain quite high with some ice jams in spots. There is some potential for some minor flooding, but generally not thinking any major issues at this time. Any lingering precipitation will change over to light rain and possibly snow showers Monday night, with light accumulations possible as colder air presses in behind the front.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 PM Wednesday... IFR conditions continue at PKB and BKW under lingering light snow, while the snow have ended at other sites. Satellite images show low stratus moving slowly southeast across our area. SFC obs indicate MVFR ceilings at most sites. These conditions could last through 22Z as moisture continue to thin out. Flurries or light snow showers possible again in the northern mountains overnight. Light and variable winds will become moderate from the northwest tonight. Clearing skies will spread from west to east Thursday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR in light snow possible mainly eastern mountains overnight. Timing of MVFR conditions may vary, as may IFR status in the mountains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H L H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... None. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday for WVZ520-522>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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