Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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591 FXUS61 KRLX 221056 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 656 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead. Dry cold front late Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 655 AM Thursday... Forecast on track with another warm day today. Previous discussion below. As of 435 AM Thursday... Another cool early morning for our area as high pressure keeps a firm grip on the weather pattern. No real changes with this package save a few cosmetic tweaks here and there to keep forecast temps in line with observed trends. Guidance remains slightly warm for overnight mins and a little cool for afternoon maxes, so adjusted accordingly through the day and into tonight. Continuing to observe more persistent cirrus in and near the mountains that hasn`t dissipated as expected. Near term model guidance keeps the remnants of Julia near the coastal Carolinas through the period, so left some clouds in the sky grids through mid morning as higher moisture pivots around the western periphery of the closed low. Otherwise, we may see a few cumulus here and there during peak heating this afternoon, as well as another day of above normal temps. Leaned heavily once again on a predominantly persistence forecast with deep mountain and river valley fog expected again late tonight into tomorrow morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Thursday... Very little change to the short term forecast...with upper ridge remaining in control. A weak back door cold front will slide through the region on Saturday night into Sunday...but this front will be mostly dry with just a slight chance for a shower in the Northern Mountains. The front will bring little change to temperatures as we will not see a change in the pattern until well into the long term portion of the forecast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... What looked like a promising legit Autumn front for early next week has been squashed by the global models. The emerging trend is for the blocking pattern to set up where the upper low/trof is further west than in previous runs. This keeps the area under the influence of upper level ridging thru early next week with a continuation of much above normal temperatures. In fact we may not be done with 90 degrees across NE KY/S WV. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 655 AM Thursday... Finally able to settle into the fog pattern for this morning. All sites except BKW now at MVFR or IFR with some vsbys bouncing up and down between the two categories. Expect this trend to continue through around 13Z when fog should begin to dissipate. VFR prevails this afternoon with only a few cumulus possible and some high cirrus in the mountains. Tonight and into Friday morning, persistence forecast is heavily relied on once again. Still no overall pattern change, so do expect IFR fog again, but as usual, hard to pinpoint where and when attm. Delayed timing a bit based on trends up to this point, so don`t have IFR fog developing until around 09Z at the earliest. As of 545 AM Thursday... Decided to overhaul most of the TAFs based on observational trends. Sufficient boundary layer moisture has been hard to come by, particularly at EKN, hence the conspicuous absence of fog this morning. Removed IFR for now, but if temps fall a couple more degrees or some local enhancement to moisture can be realized, both of which are likely difficult to achieve, they could quickly fog in after 10-11Z. Also, eliminated IFR for HTS. PKB/CRW have already reached IFR and expecting CKB to follow suit shortly with better low level moisture for these locations. All sites go VFR by mid morning with only a few cumulus through the day. Another shot at deep valley fog again tomorrow morning, although confidence is low in timing/extent attm. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except low in fog overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... Dense morning valley fog is possible into the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...DTC

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