Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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546 FXUS61 KRLX 262348 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 748 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses the region on Thursday. Weak warm front move through this weekend. Stronger cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Wednesday... Cold front approaches from the west tomorrow morning. Strong thunderstorms will be possible with this front, but the risk for strong storms will be greatest east of the Ohio River. Across the Western CWA it appears that clouds and showers out ahead of the front will limit daytime heating there and thus lower instability will be the result. Further east however, we will likely see clouds and convection hold off until early afternoon. Highest dew points will be well to our south, but low 60s dew points across Central West Virginia will be possible by early afternoon. Forecast soundings are showing some modest CAPE at about 1000 J/Kg and fairly strong 0-6 km bulk shear out ahead of the front upwards of 50 knots. With the strong wind profiles, the main severe threat will be damaging winds, but this will likely be an isolated threat as the limited moisture/instability should keep most of the storms below severe limits. Severe hail will be less likely, but certainly not out of the question with the strong shear even with limited instability. Showers and storms will be through most of the area by late afternoon to early tomorrow evening, but we may see a few storms linger in the NE Mountain Counties of West Virginia through 00Z Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Cold Frontal boundary exits to the east of the CWA Thursday night, with drier, and warm weather taking hold for Friday as the frontal boundary gradually lifts back north as a warm front. Warm front will continue to lift northward as next system approaches from the west. Kept much of the CWA dry for Friday into Saturday. Low moves across the great lakes during the day on Sunday with the trailing cold front passing through late Sunday night and Monday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Weak high pressure starts to build in Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will stay on the warm side through Wednesday as a weak midlevel system approaches and brings mainly clouds and possibility of some showers to the area for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Wednesday... VFR tonight for all sites except EKN, where the LAMP guidance brings in MVFR mist late. Should not be an IFR situation at that site. Showers and thunderstorms develop after 15Z Thursday, but the cold front shears out, reducing the chances to a small degree. No prevailing TSRA at this time, but TSRA in the area can be expected through the middle portion of the day, and afternoon for the mountains. Wind gusts likely in storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium early tomorrow morning at EKN, then medium to high late tomorrow morning into early afternoon. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may may not develop at EKN. Timing and coverage of showers and storms late tomorrow morning into early afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... MVFR to IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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