Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181938 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 238 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE. WILL CONTINUE BE RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST... WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER. STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE HOURLY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO 06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z TO 15Z FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD VARY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE CKB-EKN CORRIDOR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB

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