Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051846 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 146 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TURNING COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO DECIDED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...GIVING US WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR A GREATER PART OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ONCE A MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FILLS WHILE PASSING...THEIR WILL BE A MARKED TRANSITION IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA JUST AFTER 12Z MONDAY...IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG...WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TAKING MORE OF A TUMBLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS OPPOSED TO 15Z MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COLDER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. INCORPORATED A STEADY DOSE OF THE MAV GUIDANCE IN THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RECENT TRACK RECORD. NO NON DIURNAL ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE. ALSO BROUGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX THRESHOLD UP TO 36F IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOW TO COOL HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO INITIAL SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE INITIAL LOBE AROUND THE BROAD TROF SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND MAY HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF. MAY LEAD TO SOME ADVISORIES...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE...CONSIDERING 12 HOUR CRITERIA... MARGINAL. SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME. POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEM MAY STREAK SE ON DAY 7...BUT FOR NOW...WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTH. SO DRY ON THURSDAY. IN THE PAST 24 HRS...THE GFS CERTAINLY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR. 12Z GFS TODAY MUCH SLOWER BRINGING THE MINUS 10C 850 MB TEMP...NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THINK 12Z GFS MAY HAVE BACKED OFF TOO MUCH. SO TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING JUST SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY EVEN BROKEN CLOUDS...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: POSSIBLE BROKEN CEILINGS TOMORROW...BUT IF CEILINGS WERE TO OCCUR THEY WILL STILL REMAIN VFR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK/26 NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MPK

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