Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251426 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1005 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY...AND STRUGGLES TO SINK SOUTH. STRONGER FRONT LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK CONFLUENT PATTERN POSSIBLE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK W-NW FLOW WEST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SE FLOW EAST OF MOUNTAINS. SO LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. INCREASED THE MAX TEMP THIS AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTH...CONSIDERING OBSERVED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY...AND ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. EXPECTING MOSTLY JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CU DEVELOP WEST OF MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH SOME CIRRUS ABOVE...WITH MORE CU OVER THOSE EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. IN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT...LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT...THINKING THE CLOUDS INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT UNTIL PREDAWN FURTHER EAST. YET...DID DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF VALLEY FOG IN WV...FIGURING MOSTLY E AND S OF CRW AND IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WHILE THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE BULK OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHER THIRD OF THE AREA ACCORDING WITH NAM/GFS MODELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF LOOKS VERY DISORGANIZED IN ITS QPF FIELD THAT IT IS DISCARDED. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...WHILE THE NAM HAS IT WEAKENING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND COOLING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT COULD BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS MOS AND ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR/VLIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 08Z TO 13-14Z TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECTING FOG TO BURN OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG FOR SATURDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING FIGURING EKN VCNTY AND MOSTLY E AND SOUTH OF CRW IN SOUTHERN WV. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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