Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 290811 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 411 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND DISSOLVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A NEW FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE ONE DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE SUMMER ENDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. MOISTURE GRADIENT AND H85 TROUGH AXIS WITH 40 KTS FROM THE S AHEAD OF IT AND 30 KTS FROM THE SW BEHIND IT MAY BRING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SLOW EWD PROGRESS OF THESE FEATURES AND CLOUD TOP WARMING MAY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE W LATER THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OR LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSOLVING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THEN MAY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TOWARD DAWN TUE...AS THE FRONT DISSOLVES...AND NEW CONVECTION FORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR ALONG VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SPC MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REFLECTS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON HEATING BEHIND WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. IF HEATING PRODUCES SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD ARISE GIVEN SUFFICIENT SPEED AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT/TROUGH. HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP LOOKED GOOD DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF CONVECTION. BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH WAS ALSO CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE NORTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TYPE FEATURE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS OF NRN WV WHERE DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS FARTHER S HAD DRYING WINDS ON SUNDAY SO EVEN MVFR MIST IS QUESTIONABLE THERE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W MON AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSOLVE OVER THE AREA MON NT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE W MON MORNING WILL LIKELY BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AT FIRST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA LATER MON AFTERNOON AND MON NT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT SW WHILE FLOW LIGHT SW ALOFT THROUGH MON WILL BECOME MODERATE SW MON NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY MON AND MON NT. AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.