Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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295 FXUS61 KRLX 282302 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 652 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance Sunday in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overall...no significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. As expected...scattered showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across Ohio...and am expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across southeast Ohio...NE KY...and adjacent WV counties this afternoon...as upper disturbances moving north out ahead of an approaching upper trough affect the area. In addition...isolated convection has developed across the northern mountains just outside the CWA due to differential heating...and will maintain a slight chance across northern mountain zones this afternoon. As with yesterday...overall flow is light...and storms will be slow to move and contain heavy downpours. Bulk of convection will briefly die down tonight...however...things will ramp up again towards morning...as a combination of moisture from a tropical depression...which will move inland towards South Carolina...and upper trough moves in from the west. Models seem to be backing off a bit on how much moisture and energy will actually make it into our CWA from the tropical depression...and elected to back off the pops a bit tomorrow across the east as a result. Still...looking at overall higher pops across the east...with lower pops across the central and western counties as upper trough pushes east into region. With the expected cloud cover and shower activity on Sunday...temperatures will be several degrees cooler than in recent days...particularly across the east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Afternoon heating, precipitable water around 1.25 and some buoyancy will keep low chance pops sunday night. Although low level moisture decreases some, there will be enough instability and moisture to keep isolated showers or storms on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west bringing better chance for showers or storms. The GFS and ECMWF show decreasing QPF Sunday night and early Monday. While the GFS show afternoon convection, the ECMWF keeps light showers for the whole day Monday. Went with a compromise between these two models coding chance PoPs. Models are in agreement bringing dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect VFR conditions this evening outside of a couple of showers. Some fog may form in protected mountain valleys late tonight...but confidence is not high due to higher clouds moving in later tonight. Moisture from the tropical system along the east coast will skirt eastern portions of the area on Sunday. All area could see some showers and/or thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of fog late tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY

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