Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200624 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 224 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Stalled boundary across Central Ohio tonight heads east as a cold front this evening, exiting the mountains late tonight. High pressure for most of weekend. Moisture starved cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday... The frontal boundary as of 02Z was generally just north of the OH River. Examining IR satellite imagery shows several organized areas of convection along this boundary, extending back into MO. Surface analysis shows a surface wave located in far southwest KY, and it is this feature that we will be tracking today as it traverses along the boundary. With a good model consensus on little to no activity this morning...elected to go with a drier forecast areawide thru the late morning hours, but still holding on to a low pop across SE OH. By this afternoon the surface wave will have moved off to the north. This should allow the boundary to slip back to the south some into southern OH. With daytime heating and increasing upper level jet dynamics with the approaching s/w trof...expect scattered showers and storms to develop across southern OH and central KY...moving into WV by late afternoon. Some of the storms could be on the strong side as the winds aloft increase. Some modest instability will be realized across the WV lowlands given higher dewpoints and heating. This combined with increasing winds aloft, will support the potential for some strong to perhaps severe storms in fast moving segments, primarily across the southern and central Lowlands late this afternoon. The primary threat would marginally severe wind/hail. Further north, closer to the warm front, better shear will be present so that any instability that is realized could support some rotating updrafts. By this evening, the surface wave will have moved into PA with the trailing front finally pushing thru. As this occurs, the upper trof will be catching up to the surface feature and attempting to go negative tilt. The end result is a widespread area of moderate to occasionally heavy rains developing over the region tonight which may end up being on the cool side of the surface front which will be east of the area after midnight. Thankfully, the area as a whole is still really dry, so no widespread flooding issues are anticipated. QPF looks to run 1 to 2 inches areawide, so a much welcome rain for many. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... Models show this period to be a quick shot of below normal temperatures as a strong negatively tilted short wave continues to drive a strong cold front through our area Thursday night. We go from well above normal temperatures on Thursday ahead of the front to well below normal temperatures behind the front Friday. Look for highs in the 50s Friday after highs in the 80s in some areas Thursday. So,it will be blustery with rain behind the front Thursday night into Friday as the upper trough crosses. Canadian high pressure will build in from the west behind the exiting upper trough later Friday, with rain tapering off in the west. Some light showers will continue Friday night and early Saturday mostly in the northern mountains, compliments of northwest upslope flow. It will be cold enough for a changeover to snow showers in the higher elevations with little if any accumulation before the precip ends during Saturday. Otherwise, dry weather will cover the entire area by later Saturday, but cold with high temperatures in the 50s. Cold and dry Saturday night under high pressure. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... High pressure shifts east Sunday with dry weather and a warming trend, with temperatures edging into the 60s. A very weak and dry front will cross Monday with little if any weather. Otherwise, the upper ridge and high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. again with dry weather and warmer weather Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Initially light low level flow keeps dense fog going at KEKN and perhaps developing at other terminals. However, the flow is expected to strengthen toward morning...approaching 25 kts at H925 by 10z. As a result, allowed improving conditions at KEKN while keeping remaining terminals VFR. Synoptically speaking, a warm front will remain NW of the terminals thru 12Z, keeping the area precip free. VFR conditions continue thru at least the early afternoon hours. By that time a surface wave will have traversed along or north of the OH River. Showers and storms will develop as it does so, affecting non mountain terminals, primarily KHTS/KCRW. Given a lower confidence, elected to stick to VCTS with shra after 20Z. Some of the storms could be strong to perhaps severe. Widespread rains develops tonight as the front moves through, with cigs and vsby lowering into IFR. Light and variable surface flow will become south today, as a front stalled over the area pushes north first this morning. Light south to southwest flow aloft will become moderate by dawn Thursday and remain so throughout the day Thursday. A noticeable wind shift with frontal passage tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog in sheltered valley locations could vary thur 12Z depending on whether flow fully decouples, and on clouds. Thunderstorms may also impact TAF sites Thursday afternoon and evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in rain after 06Z...with low ceilings and some showers lingering into early Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.