Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270536 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 117 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS DECK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE... WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM. THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/27/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L L L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY

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