280
FXUS61 KRLX 061711
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
111 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure promotes dry, but hot weather through the
holiday weekend. Weak cold front stalls over the area Tuesday
through the end of the week, bringing back showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

Forecast weather charts show remnants of Chantal moving into
Virginia tonight, while a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Agreed with general guidance suggesting showers associated with
Chantal should remain east of the central Appalachians tonight,
having little to no impact over our area.

The cold front stalls just north of the area tonight. Its vicinity
could trigger few light nocturnal showers. However, in a summer
environment, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead and along the front Monday afternoon and evening. PoPs are
highest (60-75%) across SE Ohio, where higher instability will
enhance showers and thunderstorm development.

SBCAPE exceeding 2200 J/Kg, PWATs around 2.0 inches and poor deep
layered shear will allow for slow-moving summer convection across
our CWA Monday afternoon and evening. Although convection could
produce heavy downpours and localized flooding, widespread severe
hazards are not expected at this time. WPC maintains a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall along and west of the OH River for Monday.

Expect another muggy night with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
Patchy river valley fog may develop during the overnight hours.
Highs for Monday will depend on cloud cover and cooling showers
affecting the area. Latest guidance run lowered afternoon
temperatures few degrees, still allowing for heat index values to
reach to 100 degree mark at few spots across the lowlands. Used
the 10 percentile for dewpoints for Monday to mitigate down heat
index values. Decided to kick the can with an advisory at this
point as heat indexes are projected to be below advisory
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

By Tuesday night, the front waves south, stalling across our area.
At the same time, an H500 shortwave pass by. Adding to the equation,
available moisture, afternoon heating, and weak deep layered shear,
expect these features to interact to produce widespread showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect slow-moving
heavy downpours capable to produce flooding problems. This raises
concerns for isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in
areas that have seen recent rainfall. WPC keeps our entire area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.

Plenty of cloudiness and cooling showers will provide moderate
temperatures from Tuesday through Thursday as the front lift north
leaving the area under a summer environment. General guidance brings
chances for precipitation every afternoon and evening, with lesser
coverage at night through this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

By Thursday night, the nearly-stationary frontal boundary waves back
south into our area. The GFS model brings a strong H500 shortwave
arriving to SE OH around 8 PM Thursday evening. These features will
bring back showers and thunderstorms, and a renewed threat for
flooding due to antecedent precipitation and nearly saturated soils.

General guidance suggests frontal boundary will remain north of the
area by the end of the week and into the weekend. This will keep a
summer environment with juicy airmass and afternoon heating capable
to sustain showers and thunderstorms more numerous during the
afternoon and evening hours.

Looking ahead, a much more comfortable and cooler airmass will
settle into the region Tuesday through the end of the week, due to
abundant cloudiness and cooling showers. This will provide a welcome
relief from the recent summer heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions will dominate through the TAF period. Expect
weak southeasterly flow with some possible gusts in the teens by
the mid to late afternoon and also some cumulus developing as
well although will likely stay few to scattered. Any shower
activity should stay along the mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

It was a very warm June across the NWS Charleston forecast
area. Mean temperatures for the month of June 2025 were
generally 2 to 4 degrees above normal. This translated into
four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the top
10 in terms of their warmest mean June temperatures on record.
Precipitation totals varied significantly across the forecast
area, with some locations below normal, while others were above
normal.

Listed below are the locations, ranks, and observed values of
the top tens that were set.

          June 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------
  Location           Top 10 Rank           Observed Value
-------------------------------------------------------------
- Elkins, WV       : 2nd Warmest        -> 71.6 F
- Beckley, WV      : 3rd Warmest        -> 71.4 F
- Clarksburg, WV   : 3rd Warmest        -> 74.0 F
- Huntington, WV   : 7th Warmest        -> 76.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ/JZ

CLIMATE...JZ