Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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299 FXUS61 KRLX 190718 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 218 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system exits this morning. Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized system drifts this way for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 AM Sunday... Updated POPs based on current radar and blend of HRRR and WRF- NMM. Have likely POPs early this morning transitioning from HTS-CRW to the northern mountainous counties through 09Z, and then decreasing fairly quickly as the surface wave driving the precip head off to the east. Generally have around a tenth of an inch QPF in this likely POP area, with only a hundredth or two in the scattered showers on either side. Only minimal changes made to temperature forecast through the period, with 50s and 60s today and upper 30s to low 40s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Not a whole lot of change from previous forecast. Still think most models are running precip in too fast, so tried to hold back on early PoPs on Tuesday. As of 300 PM Saturday... Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. I hedged toward the slower NAM given the stout upper ridge that will be in place ahead of this system. Still feel many southern areas hit or surpass 70 degrees Monday and possibly Tuesday, despite the abundance of high clouds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... The very warm pattern continues through the week. Introduced thunder on Thu and Fri as moisture from a warm front begins to nose into the region from a much larger system headed through the Great Lakes region. This system`s cold front will move through our area on Saturday giving a sharp cool down and perhaps thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 AM Sunday... Surface wave sliding through early this morning is bringing an area of light showers from HTS to CRW and then into the northern mountains. So far remaining all VFR, however ceilings will drop into MVFR over the next few hours. Some guidance suggests IFR ceilings...but LAMP trends are not indicative of widespread IFR. Did include some just after sunrise at BKW...but kept everyone else MVFR. Clouds should gradually scatter out into the afternoon. Wind will generally be SW to W through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and change in ceiling category may change. Low chance of IFR ceilings at other TAF sites. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 02/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H L L L M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L M M L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M L M M M M L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H M M M L AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Widespread IFR not expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW/30 LONG TERM...JW/30 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.