Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 202232 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 629 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front tonight into Sunday. Cool high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. Next cold front approaches next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 630 PM Saturday... Updated chances of precipitation to increase pops ahead of a line of showers moving into ne WV this evening. As of 155 PM Saturday... Last day of the humid airmass for a while. Cold front...moving at a decent east of the Mississippi River and pushing east. General model agreement brings the front into the middle Ohio Valley in the 06Z tonight time frame. After airmass convection wanes this evening...expecting overall cloud cover increases ahead of the front...with more showers and a few storms developing. Models are hinting at a couple different bands of convection as the front moves in...but nothing expected on the severe side for now in the SPC general thunder outlook. New Canadian airmass advecting in to the CWA will provide lower dewpoints and temperatures to be seen Sunday and into the short term. The dewpoint decreases may be on the slow side...but should be falling during the afternoon and evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Saturday... By Sunday night, the cold front will be far east and south of the area. Behind this front, a sfc high pressure with center over the central plains extends east into southeast OH and into WV. Drier air moves in with the high pressure. Expect mainly clear skies and moderate temperatures. Initially, it will be cooler Monday, but temperatures will rise once again Thursday and Friday under deep south to southwest flow. Another cold front crosses on Friday. Used a combination of bias corrected SREF and the super blend for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Wednesday will be dry. However, a cold front will approach by Friday. Convection is expected over the warm sector Thursday due to diurnal heating and some forcing. Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday and Saturday next week. Good chances for showers and storms along the cold front Friday. Followed WPC for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 155 PM Saturday... Showers on the increase across the Ohio Valley and the mountains...and will continue to increase in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Through 00Z Sunday...only carrying VCSH/VCTS CB given the isolated to scattered nature of the convection with the exception of HTS and CRW given the band of precipitation moving northeast into WV. Cold front to move into the Ohio Valley after 05Z tonight...with an increase in cloud cover and showers/storms ahead of and with the front. Bring the ceilings down to MVFR with this activity...and then to IFR in some cases with frontal passage. Improvement expected after 12Z in general across the area with VFR at all locations by 16Z Sunday. After 00Z Sunday...guidance output has a large spread...lowering confidence overall. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Current convection may require a quick amendment if scattered convection hits a terminal. Timing of frontal passage and associated restrictions/convection may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... Fog possible most mornings early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.