Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 261331 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 931 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS FOR LEADING EDGE OF RAIN IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK WITH WAVY FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. PREV DISCN... LEANED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OHIO...AND IS APPARENT IN THE OBS. KZZV HAS A SE WIND WHILE KOSU IS NORTHERLY. THIS PUTS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NW OF PERRY COUNTY. A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE IS MOVING UP THE FRONT...CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KY/TN. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO CROSS WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE NE IT WILL DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE HIGHEST POPS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THERE. HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER 17Z-18Z. NEAR THE I-79 CORRIDOR FROM CRW TO CKB AROUND 19Z- 20Z. MAKING IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS 21Z- 22Z...AND THEN HEADED EAST OF CWA BY 00Z. DID TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT...AND HAVE DRY POPS MAKING IT TO THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF NEAR TERM. HAVE A PERIOD OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST A LITTLE WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHTER POP GRADIENT KEEPING THINGS DRY THERE A BIT LONGER...PLUS MANY HAVE ONLY COOLED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET IN SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE TRANSITION TIME. ENDED UP WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW BY 12Z AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A COATING TO HALF INCH IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... OLD MAN WINTER`S ENCORE APPEARANCE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO OUR FORECAST FOR THIS SHORT TERM. THE BOARD 500 MB TROF SHARPENS WITH ITS AXIS NOT PASSING UNTIL 08Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF HANGS OVER US INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FRIDAY NIGHT TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITH BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS HIGHER THAN BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE...STILL THINKING A SEMI LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE 12Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF GROUND WHITENING IN THE LOWLANDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...STILL THINKING NOT SOLID OVERCAST ON FRIDAY...BUT CELLULAR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO STILL TRYING TO LEAK THE LOWLAND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S BETWEEN SHOWERS. YET...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...LEFT THE POSSIBLE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEARER NIGHT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29TH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS AN ELONGATES SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND. AS THE LOW PASSES... BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THUNDER POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH MVFR IN RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD EVEN GET SOME IFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT HARD TO TIME ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO GUSTY NW BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL GET CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD VARY. MAY GET IFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS AND ALSO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.