Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251355 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 955 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry today. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday and again late Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 950 AM Saturday... It is a warm start to the day with many places already in the mid 60s. Based on trends and latest guidance, elected to bump up highs a bit from previous forecast. While we will deal with cirrus for much of the day, current thinking is the higher guidance should be attainable given H925 temps are pegged to be 3 C warmer than yesterday. As of 400 AM Saturday... Warm today despite a prevalence of mid to upper level clouds. Increasing instability and pockets of upper level vorticity maxima in the warm sector have a very low chance of sparking a few stray showers today, so have largely left them out of the forecast. Some model guidance does suggest their occurrence which shows overall confidence even in the short term is low for the binary PoP. Fire weather is a bit of a concern with obs being well below guidance for RH and similarly well above guidance for temps. So will have to keep an eye on this today. Winds seem to be light enough to not warrant any headlines.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday as low pressure at the surface and aloft into the Great Lakes. The negatively tilted system will pull moisture into the region, although there will be some downsloping too across the western slopes and lowlands. The combination of 40-50kts bulk shear and around 500J/kg CAPE will yield the potential for at least isolated strong to severe storms. NAMnest, WRFARW and WRFNMM all in decent agreement bringing a round of thunderstorms into the tri- state region around 18Z Sunday. Will place mention of potential damaging winds and hail in HWO for area outlined by SPC marginal risk. Drop POPs down to slight chance on Monday. GFS is much faster than ECMWF and NAM on the next surface low, thus did not go completely dry Monday. This system doesn`t look as strong as Sundays, with just an open wave aloft instead of a closed low. However, still have likely POPs Tuesday...along and east of the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Not a whole lot of confidence through the long term as GFS and ECMWF offer different solutions. Both show a drier period Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. At that point, the GFS brings a quick moving system through -- passing it south of the CWA and pulling a shot of cold air down. GFS shows about -4C 850mb temps for Friday. The ECMWF is much slower, with an upper low closing off over the upper Mississippi Valley, the surface low much farther west, and +12C 850mb temps across CWA on Friday. Stuck very close to consensus guidance with no strong feeling either way. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Saturday... VFR today with a broken deck of mid to high clouds. Light winds. Cold front crosses Sunday with increasing chances for MVFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR likely in showers and storms late Saturday night and Sunday, possibly lingering as fog and low ceilings Sunday night as the rain ends.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW/30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW/26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.