Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 262252 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 637 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS ARE WAY TOO SLOW WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AT THE MOMENT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER TIMING AND TO RAISE POPS ALONG ITS PATH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /3 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS. WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE AREA CURRENTLY OVER IL SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASING WIND GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT MEANS ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD NOT REMAIN THROUGH MORNING. WITH VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION HOWEVER...AS GFS SHOWS A LATE AFTERNOON DRY AIR CAP MOVING OVER THE REGION. NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS CAP. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY HYDROLOGY...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.