Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280857 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 457 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE LAST SHOWER EXITING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING...EXPECT DIMINISHING RAINFALL ACTIVITY TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR TONIGHT. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A BRIEF MVFR/IFR PERIOD EXPECTED AT BKW DUE TO A SHOWER MOVING OVERHEAD FROM 07-09Z. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT NEVER PASSED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT IFR/LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG AT MOST AIRPORT BY 09Z. THERE IS A LITTLE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ANY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY 12-13Z TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY. CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR MORNING CU TUE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/28/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M M H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...30/DTC AVIATION...ARJ

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