Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181454 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1054 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AND WINDIER WEATHER TODAY...AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... UPDATED TIMIMING OF POPS TO TIME CURRENT LINE OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH CWA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A DRY COLD FRONT EXITS EAST THIS MORNING. COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN TODAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEST NORTHWEST FLOW COULD SQUEEZE FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...DROPPING TONIGHT AROUND 40 DEGREES LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MINUS 3C BY 09Z TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO START THE PERIOD. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND RADIATION COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR AS BL DECOUPLES UNDER LIGHT FLOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE GOOD CHANCE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE OH RIVER AND FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. FOR TEMPS...USED LATEST BC BLEND AND AVERAGED VALUES BACK INTO INHERITED FORECAST WHICH RESULTED IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECASTED TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD...WHICH STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MON NT AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES TUE...NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH CLOSES OFF TUE EVENING AND THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY E OF THE AREA TUE NT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TUE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE COLD ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS BENEATH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE E COAST GENERATING A SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO UPSLOPE SHOWERS BY WED MORNING IN THE NW FLOW. THE FLOW AND SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU NT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED AND STALLS ALONG THE E COAST NEAR DELMARVA FOR A TIME WED NT AND THU...MOISTURE MAY ACTUALLY TRY TO SPILL BACK TO THE W ON THU. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE 0 TO PLUS 2C RANGE...LIMITED SNOW TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT NT...MAINLY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE PATTERN IS SLOWER VS PREVIOUS FCST AS UPPER LOW IS SLOWER TO CLOSE OFF AND THEN DRIFT TO THE E AND THEN NE. UPPER RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILD IN FRI AND FRI NT. BLENDED IN WPC FOR MOST LOWS...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS WITH SLOWER UPPER LOW AND HENCE CLOUDIER FCST. PREVIOUS HIGHS LOOKED GOOD OVERALL BUT DID BLEND IN WPC FOR WED AND FRI. GENERALLY CLOSEST TO THE LOWER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND BELOW NORMAL OVERALL...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATED... AMENDED TAFS FOR TIMING OF THE LINE OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY COLD FRONT HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR MASS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TOGETHER WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. VFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR CEILINGS BY EARLY MORNING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWER CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTHWEST. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR POSSIBLE ALONG PERIODS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE QUICKER EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JS/ARJ

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