Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 260635 AAA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 235 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY PROVIDES OPPORTUNITIES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WARM MORNING TODAY WITH HRRR SUGGESTING A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE YET TO SEE IT MATERIALIZE ON RADAR. MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT SINKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS WITH 1000+ J/KG CAPE...35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND 250 M2/S2 OF SRH COULD PRODUCE A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL/WIND. SPC HAS US MARGINALLY RISKED WHICH SEEMS LIKE A FAIR ASSESSMENT. THE FRONT LAYS OUT TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP INCLEMENT WEATHER AROUND THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THERE IS MUCH MODEL DISCREPANCY IN THE MASS AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD...AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES IS UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD IS RATHER LOW. WHILE MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS BEFORE STALLING IS A BIG QUESTION. IN ADDITION... WHEN AND HOW FAST THE FRONT THEN RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS EJECTING EASTWARD IS ALSO A QUESTION. THE BEST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. THIS ACCEPTED SOLUTION WILL BRING ABOUT A WET PERIOD WITH THE FRONT BASICALLY HANGING AROUND THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY IS SHOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO THUNDER INCLUDED MOST AREAS MOST OF THE TIME...BUT TOO EARLY TO MENTION OTHER THAN GENERAL THUNDER. SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES...DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS BEFORE STALLING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN START TO RETURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THURSDAY. BEST POPS/QPF WILL THEN ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...LESSENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR... BUT STILL A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CONTINUING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER MENTIONED FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESPITE GOING WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS...WE LOOK FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND ON THE HIGHER SIDE BY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING HOLD. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST DIMINISHES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SYSTEM OUT TO OUR WEST, BUT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS DIFFER. THE GFS BRINGS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. IN ANY CASE THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. WITH THIS SCENARIO, INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND KEPT CHC POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AROUND 30 KT OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET SNEAKS IN WITH LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLED. VFR THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD BE MORE THAN EXPECTED BY 18Z TODAY. IFR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY IN WAKE OF FRONT AS DEEP LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/26/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CEILINGS MAY ALSO FORM WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.