Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020643 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 143 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH. CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE CONCERN. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING THRU THE AREA AS OF 06Z AND WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE SE BY 12Z. WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME -RA WILL. VSBYS AND TO AN EXTENT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. AS SUCH HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS...BUT STILL CARRY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF -SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE PREDAWN WHICH MAY BRING VSBY DOWN INTO IFR. MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR -FZRA. LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 03/02/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H L M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M L H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30

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