Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222330 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 730 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal into the weekend. Dry cold front late Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Thursday... Only very minor changes made to hourly T/Td/Wind based on current obs and trends. Otherwise, a quiet night on tap. As of 1250 PM Thursday... High pressure in control tonight and Friday. Based on the performance of MOS guidance over the last couple of days...will go on the lower side of MOS guidance tonight...and on the warmer side during the daytime.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Thursday... The only feature to track in the short term will be a back door cold front as the upper ridge gets pinched over the region. This boundary will slip thru later on Saturday with an isolated shra threat over the northern mountains...otherwise this should be a dry fropa. Temperatures on Saturday may still flirt with 90 along and S of the I64 corridor. The greatest push of cooler air will stay NE of the area but a good temperature gradient may still exist from NE to SW on Sunday...along with some more clouds. As a result...temps on Sunday should be similar to Saturday with perhaps a tick or two lower on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1100 AM Thursday... It still appears that any true Autumn push of air will hold off until late week. However there is some disagreement on timing and evolution of the northern stream early next week. The 00Z Euro is more bullish and progressive with the northern stream compared to the GFS which is more blocky. Will hedge toward the GFS to maintain continuity...keeping things warm and only a small chance for a shra/tsra early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Thursday... High pressure remains in control of the weather with mostly clear skies and light winds. Expect some dense river valley fog to develop tonight...although much like last night visibilities may be highly variable dipping in and out of IFR through the early morning hours. VFR expected after fog dissipates on Friday, with some mid level cumulus and also some higher cirrus passing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Morning dense valley fog is possible into early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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