Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010736 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 236 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler high pressure to end the work week. Weak upper level system late Sunday/Sunday night and then an active pattern with a couple systems passing the area next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1245 AM Thursday... Minor changes to PoPs and wx grids following the latest radar trend of moving showers. Rest of forecasts remains on track. As of 950 PM Wednesday... Forecast on track, only minimal changes made. The cold front is working its way through the I-79 corridor into the WV mountains. Have gotten some non-thunderstorm wind gusts of around 35-45 mph in the showers along the front. As of 200 PM Wednesday... A cold front will push through this evening, bringing an end to the rain. Cooler air moves into the area overnight. Looking at satellite, it does appear that there will be a fairly good break in the clouds behind the front. Models have some fairly large differences as to when the upslope clouds will develop in the western counties. Will go with a middle of the road solution for now. With cold air advection and low level moisture, will continue with some small upslope pops in the WV mountains late tonight and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 220 AM Thursday... High pressure dominates the short term period with with zonal flow aloft. Northwesterly flow could keep some snow upslope snow showers across the mountains into the weekend, but little accumulation is expected. Temperatures will generally run slightly below normal through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 225 AM Thursday... Not too much in the way of changes from the previous forecast and although the models are coming into better agreement for Sunday into Monday, there is still a large spread for next week. Overall the pattern is looking to be quite active for next week, but uncertain how significant any of these systems will be at this time. Forecast confidence continues to grow for Sunday into Monday with ensemble and operational guidance aligning solutions on a weak or flattening upper trough passing Sunday night into Monday. Starting to think that the chances for precip with this system is decreasing and what was looking like a potential heavy rain event yesterday is now looking like just scattered light rain showers for the area. A blend of model guidance gives chance PoP for this period and that seems adequate for now seeing how the guidance has really pulled back on the QPF with 00Z runs. There after the guidance diverges with timing and intensity of a couple of systems, but they do agree that an active progressive pattern is upon us.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 PM Wednesday... Cold front exits east of the area overnight taking all pcpn with it. Satellite images show an area of clearing behind the front entering into southeast OH and portions of WV overnight. However, additional cloud deck around 2300 feet is expected to cover the area early today. Colder air arrives to provide VFR to MVFR conditions developing in the morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/01/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H M H M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M H H M H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M H H H L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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