Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160806 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 306 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Drizzle, with cold front crossing overnight. High pressure crosses Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1230 AM Thursday... Previous forecast on track. No changes necessary. As of 930 PM Wednesday... Speed up the exit of showers, but kept drizzle around most of the night along and east of the Ohio River. Updated temperatures based on current obs and trends, but no significant changes made. As of 1240 PM Wednesday... A band of showers will move across the area late this afternoon and this evening, followed by a cold front. Some of the meso models are showing that the band does not remain solid as it moves across the area, especially in the southern counties. Therefore, will run the highest pops in the northern counties. Due to only shallow moisture behind the front, will just run some drizzle. Can`t rule out some freezing drizzle in the highest elevations late tonight into Thursday, but don`t expect much in the way of accumulation and only on elevated surfaces. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Thursday... Although we start with high pressure overhead the dominant feature this period is a strong cold front that will rip through the region on Saturday. Warm air advection kicks in on Friday night out ahead of the front with deep southwesterly return flow. Warm front generally passes to our north and the region will be well entrenched in the warm sector by noon Saturday. This will send temperatures soaring into the 60s before showers break out with the front in the Ohio Valley by late Saturday afternoon. Yes it is November, but there may be enough forcing and instability with the front for some embedded thunder, but not enough confidence to put in the forecast at this time. Will have to watch for any convective line that develops, with forecast soundings showing 55 to 60 knots at only 2K feet the heavier showers could bring some strong wind gusts down to the surface. The front clears the mountains late Saturday night and strong CAA expected behind it. With the colder air and strong NW flow, upslope snow appears likely across western facing slopes. Depending when the changeover occurs, we may not see much in the way of accumulation until during the day on Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 305 AM Thursday... Depending how much Great Lake moisture comes down behind the front, snowfall amounts will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range in the favorable upslope areas. By early Monday morning, weak ridging and WAA will cut off the snow. Models really diverge as we head into Thanksgiving week, so overall details are fuzzy at this time. At this time, no significant systems are expected, but a blend of ensemble and operational guidance does bring cool temperatures back in by mid week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Thursday... Satellite images show widespread low level stratus across the area. Sfc obs indicate VFR/LIFR ceilings at BKW and CKB while MVFR ceilings prevail at CRW, HTS, PKB and EKN. The flow will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Ceilings could deteriorate over areas under MVFR overnight. Periods of drizzle possible in low clouds. A gradual improvements can be expected tomorrow as clouds break up and lift. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of and height of LIFR ceilings could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 11/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M L H H H H M H H L M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H M M L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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