Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271828 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 226 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 21C RANGE...YIELDING 90 TO 92F FOR NE KY/SE OH/S WV. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70 TO 73F RANGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/30 NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30/DTC AVIATION...KMC

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