Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181817 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 213 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front sinks into the area tonight, stalls and then returns back north later Wednesday. A much stronger front moves through Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 210 PM Tuesday... Decent deck of cumulus has developed across the forecast for this afternoon increased cloud cover and decreased high temps a degree or two. Going for low to mid 80s across the western half of CWA, which is still well above normal and near record levels, however widespread record highs are not a slam dunk due to the clouds. A cold front is currently moving through the central Great Lakes. This front will sink into the forecast area from the NW tonight, weakening as it does. Eventually stalling out before lifting back north as a warm front on Wednesday. Models have trended a bit farther south before the stall, so leaked some POPs south to about the I-64 corridor, although still limited likely POPs to the NW corner of CWA late tonight. For Wednesday, have POPs increasing with the diurnal trend and gradually lifting back north with the front as a surface low starts moving through the mid/southern Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Included an isolated rumble of thunder from southeast Ohio into north central West Virginia.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Tuesday... Models are finally agreeing on the pattern for the upcoming system. A frontal boundary will stall over southern Ohio and northern West Virginia on Wednesday. A low will then move along the front and across the central Appalachians Thursday into Friday morning. Some good instability with the low, so expect some thunderstorms and decent rainfall amounts. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Tuesday... Models start to show some differences behind the system into the beginning of the weekend with the timing of the upper trough. Regardless of the upper energy, with a northwest flow and low level moisture, will let pops linger well into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... Decent cumulus deck in place today, but all TAF sites will remain VFR. Gusty winds out of the south should decrease after sunset. Cold front will sink in from the NW tonight and stall across the forecast area into Wednesday. Best chance of showers with the front will be PKB and NW. Could get some MVFR in rain and low stratus with the front. Southeast of the front...rather low confidence on chance of dense fog with clouds and some flow remaining. Did include IFR at EKN in valley fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Lower stratus may sink farther south. Fog highly dependent on winds and clouds and may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Typical early morning valley fog possible this week. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.