Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 052351 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 651 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SUNDAY...WITH A TRANQUIL FEBRUARY ENVIRONMENT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 645 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK THIS QUIET EVENING. PREV DISCN... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO DECIDED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...GIVING US WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR A GREATER PART OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NICE WX REGIME WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD AND SNOWY PERIOD NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN THE SHOWERY PRECIP BEFORE THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...INDICATE PRECIP TYPE CONUNDRUMS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE BL...PRIMARILY BELOW 2 KFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A MAINLY LIQUID PHASE WITH FROPA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS RISING IN THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. TRIED TO WORK THE HOURLY TEMPS USING A WETBULB EFFECT GIVEN THE GOOD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THE FRONT TO WORK ON. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW AS THE FRONT CROSSES ON MONDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. AT THIS POINT NOT LOOKING AT ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY ASIDE FROM A 1 TO 3 INCH COATING ABOVE 2 KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THE INITIAL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...POPS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO OHIO AND SURFACE LOW TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TOWARD DELMARVA. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR NOW...WITH 500 MID LEVEL LOW IN OUR VCNTY AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. OLD SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...OF MID LEVEL LOW GOING TO OUR SOUTH...SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW. WEAKENING 500 MB TROF REMAINS IN VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COLDER 850 MB TEMPS STILL ADVECTING IN ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE MIN TEMPS NEAR ZERO AOB 4 THSD FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONLY APPARENT TEMPS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALSO MOSTLY AOA 4 THSD FT. SO NOT WORTH HIGHLIGHTING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO STILL TRIED TO KEEP OUR POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AND MOISTURE DEPTH STILL UP TO 10 THSD FT. PICTURING AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...A LOT OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN LOWLANDS OVER 12 HOURS...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THINKING MORE TOWARD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAN TAKING THE WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING AVENUE. OF COURSE...OVER 48 HOURS AMOUNTS WILL ADD UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 6 AND 7...IN THE 100+ KNOT 250 MB FLOW FROM THE WESTNORTHWEST. COULD EASILY SEE SOME CLIPPER ACTION...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING. INCLUDED 20 POPS FOR NOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SAT...BUT REMAINS NEARBY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG IS NOT EVEN EXPECTED. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME HIGH STRATOCU/LO ALTOCU SAT MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SAT...OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH ALTOCU AND CI IN UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. ON SAT...THE FIRST ROUND OF STRATOCU WILL LIKELY MISS THE MOUNTAINS AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NE...AND THE SECOND BATCH WILL NOT ARRIVE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SFC FLOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE LIGHT S TO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT SW ON SAT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT W ON SAT. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT SW ON SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF BROKEN 4-5KFT STRATOCU MAY VARY SAT...BUT NO NON-VFR SCENARIOS ARE FORESEEN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... THE RIVER GAUGE AT PARKERSBURG...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...HAS BEEN FIXED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MPK/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...TRM HYDROLOGY...KTB

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