-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 121013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
613 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery and breezy through the day today. Heavy rain from
yesterday continues to yield high water issues today. Quiet for
Saturday into Sunday with storms possible Sunday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 600 AM Friday...

Reduced PoPs a bit over our northeast and increased PoPs a bit
over our southwest to better reflect current radar trends,
otherwise previous forecast thinking remains largely the same.

Previous heavy rainfall continues to work down the watersheds
this morning, becoming increasingly confined to the mainstem
rivers today.

As of 330 AM Friday...

Surface low pressure ejects into the Lower Great Lakes this morning
as a northern stream wind max dives into shared energy upper level
troughing located overhead. Progressively cooler air building in
through the column coupled with this energy will yield renewed
chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms late this
morning into this afternoon. Instability will be rather limited, but
given the cool conditions aloft could see some graupel out of this
activity, especially during the afternoon hours. Additional rainfall
amounts over the lower elevations that were especially hard hit by
heavy rain yesterday will be minimal, generally a quarter inch or
less although with saturated soils this will still somewhat slow
recession of any high water. In the mountains, strong westerly flow
will yield some better precipitation amounts, half to perhaps 1 inch
in spots. Fortunately, most of these locations saw significantly
less rainfall yesterday than points east.

Winds will be breezy across the region with tightened gradients and
cool air advection maximizing downward momentum transport. Have
issued a wind advisory for the mountains through the day Saturday to
reflect gusts 40-50 mph. Across northern lowlands today gusts of up
to 40 mph will be possible - combined with wet soils this could
cause some additional tree damage and power outages - did discuss a
potential impact based advisory with our northern neighbor, but will
elect to address in the HWO and other messaging for now. Farther
south, winds will be a little more tame with gusts 25 to 35 mph, but
some isolated tree issues would also be possible there.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Aside from a lingering upslope shower in the mountains Saturday
morning, dry conditions are expected through late Sunday afternoon
allowing some recovery from recent heavy rainfall. Through the day
Sunday a strong, early season elevated mixed layer sourced from the
Desert Southwest will continue to drift slowly east into our
neighborhood with minimal upstream overturning. Beneath this, a
plume of Gulf influenced moisture characterized by surface dew
points in the mid 50s to lower 60s gets shunted eastward as low
level westerly flow increases. This should yield a corridor of
conditional instability approaching 1500J/kg along the best
surface moisture pooling along a weak cold front coincident with
cloud layer shear around 35KTs. This should yield at least some
potential for organized convection with all severe types
possible either across our northern counties or just north of
our county warning area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening. A limiting factor for this convection will be west to
east storm motions that struggle to get storms away from the
aforementioned weak cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Unseasonably mild conditions continue through Thursday with daytime
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Gulf
influenced moisture remains in play through much of this period with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. .

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 620 AM Friday...

The region remains under the influence of surface low pressure
slowly ejecting northeast into the Lower Great Lakes through much of
this TAF period. Cool advection will yield stratocumulus ceilings
009-025 with periodic showers affecting all terminals. Limited
instability could also yield some isolated thunder with the
heaviest showers, especially this afternoon - and will include
some VCTS for most terminals. Graupel will also be possible with
any heavier showers but will leave GS out of the TAFs for now.

Winds will be breezy from the west through the period,
generally 12-18KTs with gusts 25-30KTs, occasionally higher,
especially near the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility in any heavier showers could
decrease more than advertised.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP