Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201931 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 231 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS MOUNTAINS MONDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTS ENEWD OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSSES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE FCST LATE TONIGHT BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W TROUGH...AND THEN BEGINS DRIFTING ENEWD OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO THE SW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT PERSISTENT H8-9 INVERSION ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU HAD BROKEN UP ACROSS MOST OF WV. WITH LITTLE FLOW TO WORK WITH...THIS IS LIKELY TO REFORM TONIGHT OR AT THE LATEST FIRST THING SUNDAY MORNING ON MIXING. DAYTIME MIXING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A MORE CELLULAR CU FIELD SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CLOUD AMOUNT BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. LOWS LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH BIAS CORRECTED VALUES WERE HIGHER. CONTINUING THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF STRATOCU FOR SUNDAY. THE LATE DAY CLEARING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BREAK 40 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS FORMING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MEANWHILE...AT THE MID LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN...WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH BY TUESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND SOUTHERN WV WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN THEIR QPF FIELDS. WEAK FLOW BECOMES GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE SFC TO H850...TO BRING WAA. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. GENERALLY...HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD REACH INTO THE MID 50S...AND INTO THE LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY AS WAA BECOMES STRONGER.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT. THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS/BOMBOGENESIS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A HUGE HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO THE OVERALL SPEED...AND THE FACT THAT BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE...BULK OF MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE EXITED. IN ADDITION...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO STICK TO THE GROUND IF GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HWO. ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CANADA...BECOMING NEARLY STACKED WITH SURFACE LOW. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SEE A DRYING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CKB OBSERVATION MISSING SINCE 13Z ON ACCOUNT OF A COMMS ISSUE WHICH IS BEING INVESTIGATED...ISSUED TAF WITH AMEND NOT SKED THERE. THE MVFR STRATOCU HAD LIKELY BROKEN UP THERE BUT REMAINS IN PLACE IN PKB AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DECK MAY RETREAT FARTHER NWWD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING OR REFORMING TONIGHT. LOWER MVFR STRATUS HAD ALREADY RETURNED TO BKW FROM THE SE. IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT MAY MAKE IT TO THE RIVER AND AFFECT PKB AND HTS SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT EKN SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE RETURNED...CIGS AT LEAST AS LOW AS MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD ALL SITES. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHILE LIGHT W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOST WERLY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRATUS DECK...HIGH OTHERWISE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK RETREATING NWWD EARLY ON AND THEN RETURNING / REFORMING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN A WINTRY MIX. IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY...AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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