Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 152058 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 331 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... THANKFULLY THE LOW CLOUDS EVAPORATED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SUNSHINE PLENTIFUL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS...FULL MIXING MAY NOT BE REALIZED. DID NOT LOWER DEW POINT AS MUCH EITHER FOR REST OF THE DAY. CONTINUED WITH THE ADJUSTMENT WE MADE THIS MORNING. THINKING WITH STILL A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NO CEILINGS...THAT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SEE THEIR TEMP DROP TOWARD FREEZING...BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES AND CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS APPROACH DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. SO NO MENTION OF FREEZING PCPN AT THIS TIME. SOME FOG MAY EVEN FOR LATE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE MOST MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT BY MIDNIGHT. WITH BREEZE FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE MID OH VALLEY AND CLOUDS THERE FIRST...MILDER MIN TEMPS THERE. THINKING NAM MOS POPS STILL TOO HIGH...PREFER LEAVING IN LKLY RANGE NOT CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND COOLING ALOFT...LOWERING CEILINGS AND CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS SHOWING SOME COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SO WILL GO WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS FINALLY GET COLD ENOUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE GETS VERY THIN. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CANADIAN/ECMWF/AND GFS ALL BRING CLOUDS IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...WHILE NAM STAYS FURTHER SOUTH. WILL GO WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE HOWEVER...WILL ONLY GO WITH CLOUDS...AND NOT PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM FORECAST STILL CENTERED ON STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COLLECTIVELY TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS KEEPS THINGS COLDER...BUT ALSO SHUNTS THE MOISTURE SOUTH. PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN PHASED UPPER AND LOWER LOWS EARLY ON...BUT 12Z RUN DOES NOT...WHICH AGREES BETTER WITH RECENT GFS AND CMC RUNS. KEPT THE MAX POPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...LEANING PRETTY HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS EVAPORATED MONDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOME MVFR VSBY IN FOG FORMING IN THE DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS VCNTY EKN FOR A TIME...THINKING 03Z TO 07Z. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TIMING. THINKING SOME MVFR IN CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE. LOWERED THE COVERAGE OF PCPN BY DAWN TUESDAY WEST OF KCRW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE COOLING ALOFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING MOSTLY INTO THE 1 TO 2 THSD FOOT RANGE...WITH SOME VSBY 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY LOWER FASTER THAN FORECAST WITH THE INITIAL RAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KTB

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