Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160035 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 835 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses through this evening. Much cooler tonight into Tuesday. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the middle and latter part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 825 PM Sunday...Updated PoP again with showers coming across the area to reflect current radar and meso model trends. Also, took any mention of thunder out of the forecast with the sun going down the instability will be too weak. As of 350 PM Sunday...Just made a quick adjustment to get PoP more aligned with current Radar as cold front enters the Ohio Valley. As of 215 PM Sunday... Cold front traverses forecast area this evening with line of convective showers. These convective showers should start to become more active through the late afternoon and early evening from modest daytime heating taking place so late in this season. CAPE profiles, flow aloft, and sfc gradients point to a potential for about 30 to 35 kt max gust potential as the front moves through, reaching the eastern mountains late this evening. Cold air advection along with upslope flow should lead to some post frontal clouds remaining in place with areas of fog in valleys that have decoupled boundary layers. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler to start the work week as cold air advection continues for Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Sunday... Much cooler and very dry high pressure will will settle over the area Monday night, with clear skies and calm winds to help drop temperatures even more. Thus, much of the northern mountains will be prone to a freeze Monday night, while the remainder of the area will be prone to frost. This will be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Thereafter, high pressure continues with a warming trend into mid week under lots of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM Sunday... Typical pattern for autumn with dry west to northwest flow pattern aloft and extensive high pressure below. Thus, this period will continue to be dry with plenty of sunshine, leading to a continued warming trend, with afternoon highs above normal for the later half of the week. Nights will still be cool under good radiational cooling, leading to a wide range in diurnal temperatures this period. Relative humidities in the afternoons will trend lower, but the good news is, winds should remain relatively light, thereby negating the fire weather threat. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 755 PM Sunday... A strong cold front is pushing through the region this evening. There is a line of heavy showers and gusty winds along the front and some locations could briefly drop to IFR for low visibility in the heavy rain. Most confident in this at CRW and CKB where the showers will arrive shortly. The front is already through HTS and PKB, where HTS briefly dropped for half an hour to IFR with the rain. Behind the front ceilings will likely dip to MVFR with residual stratocu, especially along the mountains and where IFR ceilings could develop later tonight, but not enough confidence to place in 00Z TAFs. VFR will return everywhere tomorrow morning as high pressure builds into the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Sites could drop to IFR in showers or may stay at MVFR. Possible IFR ceilings in mountains through early Monday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 10/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H M M H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M H L H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H M L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Dense overnight and morning valley fog this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MPK

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