Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211848 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 248 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak disturbance this afternoon with a shower possible north. Tropical moisture to bring heavy showers and thunderstorms to end the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 210 PM Wednesday... Weak mid level vort max crossing northern portions of our area this afternoon and evening will bring a few showers and possibly a storm north. As this upper feature moves away this evening and with loss of heating, most convection will end. East to west frontal system dropping southward will stall just to the north of our area early tonight and then shift back north as a warm front late tonight and Thursday. Just a slight chance of a shower far north tonight vicinity of the front. As this front retreats later tonight and Thursday, tropical moisture will be on the increase as deeper southerly flow increases, and included a little haze in the forecast for mainly river valleys later tonight. For Thursday, models have PW`S reaching above 2 inches on increasingly deep southerly flow from the tropical system currently near the Gulf Coast. Models agree a significant piece of energy breaks off from the tropical system on Thursday, and this piece will lift northward well ahead of the tropical system itself. This will bring an organized area of showers and thunderstorms into southern portions of our area by early Thursday afternoon, and into northern portions of our area around days end. The bulk of the rain from this piece of energy will be just after this period. Temperatures will continue warm on Thursday, and it will be quite humid.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 AM Wednesday... Models showing tropical moisture pushing into the region Thursday into Thursday night. The moisture then remains until a cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday. Some differences still exist in the models, especially with handling the remains of Cindy`s circulation and precipitation amounts. Getting increasingly concerned with the threat of flooding. Would like to see the model precipitation fields settle down a bit more before issuing a Flood Watch. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 AM Wednesday... Lots a variability in the models for Sunday into Monday. Some models have much cooler air moving in with the initial cold front Friday night and Saturday, while other models hold back the majority of the cooler air until another cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday. This leads to a low confidence forecast for this period. Cooler air should definitely be in place for Tuesday with the area under an upper level trough. Models have disturbances moving through the trough, but vary on the strength and timing. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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18Z Wednesday thru 18Z Thursday... As of 200 PM Wednesday... A weak upper air disturbance and associated front will provide enough lift for isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening across southeast OH and northern WV. Chances are too low for any mention in the northern TAF sites at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions amid intervals of cirrus south and sct cu north. A front will set up just north of our area tonight with an isolated shower possible far north, then lift north late tonight and Thursday. Increase in high cloud cover will keep terminals VFR tonight, except some MVFR haze, especially in river valleys, is possible later tonight. Otherwise, VFR tonight. Thursday will see clouds continuing to increase from the south as the effects of the tropical system over the Gulf Coastal states lift northward. Shower and storms will sneak into far southern portions of the area by 18Z, with possible MVFR conditions there. Otherwise, VFR continues. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

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