Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 112238 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 638 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses tonight and Saturday. High pressure in charge Sunday. Next low pressure system in the vicinity Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 635 PM Friday... Showers and storms slowly winding down for most areas. Some minor tweaks to temps overnight and tomorrow. Also cleaned up PoP grids to reflect radar trends and lowered precip chances along/north of the OH River for tonight based on latest guidance. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track. As of 110 PM Friday... Latest radar mosaic shows some scattered showers and thunderstorms were located mainly across the mountain counties. In fact, much of our northwestern zones have sunny to mostly sunny sky conditions. Clouds should continue to thicken this afternoon and evening with storm chances increasing as well. Latest guidance indicates that there is a possibility of showers all night, especially in advance of the approaching cold front. Not real certain about the probability of thunderstorms overnight. Can not rule them out. So have maintained a slight chance. At daybreak, expect the cold front to be located in the vicinity of the Ohio River with precipitation chances mainly limited to the east of the boundary. Cold front is expected to push east during the day. Combination of abundant moisture, daytime heating and the front suggest that precipitation chances along and ahead of the front should increase. Models seem to be handling this quite well and because of this, have bumped up PoPs to likely in the mountains. Latest gridded temperature guidance is quite close to previously forecasted numbers for lows tonight and highs on Saturday. So have only made some minor tweaks.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... With a cold front way south of the area, high pressure to the north remains in control for the most part Sunday. However, guidance shows a weak sfc low pressure system developing along the cold front and move east, south of the area by Monday morning. The proximity of these features will result in isolated showers or storms across the extreme southern portions of WV and along the eastern mountains. Broad high pressure continues to build across the MS and OH Valleys extending east into the Mid Atlantic states. This high pressure will bring dry and clear skies Sunday and Sunday night. The NAM shows a sfc low pressure moving overhead by Munday night. This, and the afternoon heating could produce mainly showers across the central and eastern mountains Monday and Tuesday. The blend of models suggests widespread chance PoPs Monday night due to the aforementioned low pressure system. Adjusted PoPs keeping dry most of southeast OH. Temperatures will be running just below normal through the short term period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 248 PM Friday... Expect dry conditions to spread from west to east on Tuesday as a high pressure takes control. Slight chance for showers remains Wednesday and Wednesday night, until another system brings more active weather by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 110 PM Friday... VFR conditions prevail across much of the region at this time. The only exception is in the vicinity of the few showers that are located in the mountains where MVFR and even isolated ifr conditions are possible. The showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop and intensify through 00Z before slowly weakening and becoming less numerous. Outside of the precipitation, expect VFR conditions should be the rule through 03Z where MVFR conditions may develop across the mountains. Conditions are then expected to deteriorate with MVFR conditions across much of the region by 08Z. Even with cloudy skies, light wind and abundant low-level moisture may result in the development of IFR river valley fog after 08Z. Expect conditions will improve in the wake of the front as it pushes east on Saturday. However, MVFR conditions can be expected across the east even as late as 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this afternoon...low tonight into Saturday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of showers/tstms this afternoon into Saturday may differ. Coverage of IFR river valley fog overnight may not be as high as expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L M M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible at times in showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ NEAR TERM...JSH/DTC SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ/MZ AVIATION...JSH

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