Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 010742
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
242 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
Cooler high pressure to end the work week. Weak upper level
system late Sunday/Sunday night and then an active pattern with a
couple systems passing the area next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...
Radar images show showers dissipating along the eastern mountains as
the front exits the area. Satellite imagery shows an area of
clearing and dry air crossing the area this morning. Additional
low level clouds are anticipated later today. High temperatures
will range from the mid 40s lowlands to mid 30s higher elevations.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower 30s under cold advection.
Temperatures will be below normal during the day, but above normal
at night. High pressure will prevail through the period.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...
High pressure dominates the short term period with with zonal
flow aloft. Northwesterly flow could keep some snow upslope snow
showers across the mountains into the weekend, but little
accumulation is expected. Temperatures will generally run slightly
below normal through the period.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...
Not too much in the way of changes from the previous forecast and
although the models are coming into better agreement for Sunday
into Monday, there is still a large spread for next week. Overall
the pattern is looking to be quite active for next week, but
uncertain how significant any of these systems will be at this
Forecast confidence continues to grow for Sunday into Monday with
ensemble and operational guidance aligning solutions on a weak or
flattening upper trough passing Sunday night into Monday. Starting
to think that the chances for precip with this system is
decreasing and what was looking like a potential heavy rain event
yesterday is now looking like just scattered light rain showers
for the area. A blend of model guidance gives chance PoP for this
period and that seems adequate for now seeing how the guidance
has really pulled back on the QPF with 00Z runs.
There after the guidance diverges with timing and intensity of a
couple of systems, but they do agree that an active progressive pattern
is upon us.
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...
Cold front exits east of the area overnight taking all pcpn with
it. Satellite images show an area of clearing behind the front
entering into southeast OH and portions of WV overnight. However,
additional cloud deck around 2300 feet is expected to cover the
area early today. Colder air arrives to provide VFR to MVFR
conditions developing in the morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 12/01/16
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H M L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M M L M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H M H M H H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H M H L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H M H H H L L L
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday,
mainly in the higher elevations.