Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021404 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1004 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WV...OUR NE KY ZONES...AND OUR SE OHIO ZONES BORDERING THE OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT. ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40 KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW STRATUS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H H M M M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076- 085>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MPK

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