Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 192352 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 752 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Generally dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal for mid and late September through the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Monday... Nixed the idea of an afternoon mountain shower or thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon although leary given commonality of thunder this September. Forecast otherwise on track. As of 105 PM Monday... A high pressure system will allow for skies to clear this evening. With light winds...this will set up a good fog night in the normally favored valley locations. Meso NAM holds a bit of moisture on the eastern slopes of the mountains for Tuesday afternoon...so can not rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Models suggest Post Tropical Storm Julia, which is currently just off the carolina coast, will meander slowly northward through Thursday. Current thinking is that the main impact of this system is the easterly cyclonic flow could result in more cloud cover across the Eastern West Virginia Mountains. There is the possibility that some of the moisture associated with Post Tropical Storm Julia could result in a few showers across the mountains on Wednesday as well. For now, have kept mountains dry. With upper ridge in place across our area, believe above normal daytime temperatures should continue on Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... A cold front is expected to push south across the area on Saturday with surface high pressure to build in by Sunday and Sunday Night. WPC thinking is that the combination of upper ridge and relatively dry airmass should in dry weather with the front. Temperatures should become somewhat cooler behind front. Another front will approach the area Monday with a chance of showers. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Monday... A clear, calm mid September night following recent rain spells widespread dense valley fog overnight for the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. The fog will thin out and burn off by mid morning Tuesday, and stratus resulting from the lifting fog will mix out quickly, as the low levels will be too dry for much morning cu. VFR is expected for the balance of the day Tuesday per high pressure close by to the north. Light north surface flow will become calm overnight, and then light north again on Tuesday. Flow aloft will be light northeast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium overnight into Tuesday morning, otherwise high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming overnight could vary. Lifting of fog Tuesday morning could vary a bit. MVFR stratocu along the eastern slopes of the WV mountains could sneak into BKW for a short time early Tuesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H L L L M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Dense valley fog is likely most mornings this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...TRM

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