Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260558 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 158 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 200 AM UPDATE... RAISED POPS BANKING ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHRA/TSRA COMING UP ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THE S EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND REASONING. PREV DISCN... WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN TRI STATE AROUND HTS...THEN WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER EAST AND NORTH TOWARD PREDAWN HOURS...AFTER 08Z. SO HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A 500 MB VORT MAX PASSING AND LIFTING N DURING THE MORNING...THEN EXITING NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 18Z. THINKING NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM WSW TOWARD EVENING. STILL DIFFICULT TO FIGURE COVERAGE OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS...PLUS WHAT AFFECTS MORNING CONVECTION HAS ON REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...AND RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW...SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS KEEPS CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S EARLY TUE MORNING...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WSW LATE IN THE DAY TUE. HAVE CIGS MAINLY ATOP MIXING LAYER 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AFTER A RELATIVE AFTERNOON LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM THE W LATE TUE OR TUE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY...WITH MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. .AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NT INTO WED MORNING...AND RAIN INDUCED LOW STRATUS AND FOG. IFR MAY LINGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...TRM

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