Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200546 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 146 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in today, lingering through Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday... A stellar day on tap with near normal temps but much lower humidity. The sun will be kept company with some flat cu across the area and cirrus over southwest VA and southeast WV. The cirrus may become more prevalent across WV and VA zones helping to mitigate river valley fog. A weak disturbance embedded within the mean longwave trof may spark a shower across Perry/Morgan toward dawn Wednesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Monday... Staying in a relatively dry pattern for this portion of the forecast with increasing thicknesses and temperatures jumping back up towards 90F for the lowland areas for Thursday. A few upper level disturbances could trigger weak convection across the north, but for the most part, the CWA will continue to dry out. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM Monday... Cold front approaches from the north, while the CWA gets squeezed by upper level features in the southern stream that work POPs into the southern zones simultaneously. POPs peak Friday and Friday night, but complicating the matter will be the moisture advection in the aforementioned southern stream, likely from a tropical feature that will move ashore over the Texas Gulf Coast around the Thursday time frame. Expect temperatures to come back down behind this front for the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Tuesday... Current thinking is enough low level winds will keep most of the terminals void of dense fog thru 12Z. The exception is KEKN where IFR or worse in fog was coded up with the thinking being the valley should decouple and with some light rain over the past few hours, they should fog. As for KBKW, there is some concern of a IFR or worse stratus deck developing in the next few hours. However only one piece of guidance is showing this, so have taken a middle ground approach by allowing a MVFR stratus deck to form. VFR conditions areawide after 14Z amide some flat cu and afternoon cirrus. Enough mixing for some gusts to 20 kts KCKB/KEKN/KBKW midday thru afternoon. The cirrus canopy may expand more into the area tonight, helping to mitigate river valley fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low thru 12Z at KEKN/KBKW...medium elsewhere. High all sites after 14Z. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if winds decouple more. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR river valley fog possible Wednesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...30

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