Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181857 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 257 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level low drops southeast tonight to the mid Atlantic coast. Another system Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Saturday... Cold pool convection showers and storms are easily churning out consistent one half inch hail as the cold front digs into the mountains, aided by fairly efficient heating that got temperatures into the mid 50s. Cold air advection aloft is not far behind, as evidenced by the encroaching low level stratocu in its wake, which will be a persistent feature into the overnight. As the low level flow transitions to the northwest, convection will turn into a modest northwest flow event for snow showers in the higher elevations. Have scaled back the totals for the mountain valleys tonight, thinking the best snowfall will be on the far western slopes. Moisture depth gets a little thin around dawn, and may have to transition to freezing drizzle. End the upslope and clouds with the commencing of warm air advection at 925mb after 18Z Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Saturday... Quiet weather Sunday night and Monday with temps trying to moderate ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will slowly work across the area Monday night and most of Tuesday with a good chance of showers. The showers will tend to wane late Tuesday as the front slips south of the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday... The upper level trof will amplify over the region midweek with a impulse rounding the base into the area on Wednesday. Overrunning precip will break out as the day progresses, especially across southern zones. Enough cold air should be in place for some wet snow in the higher elevations. Upper level ridging will build into the region to end the workweek providing for a significant warmup come Friday and Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... MVFR stratocumulus expected to rotate back in from the northwest with the front clearing the area over the next couple of hours. Lines of showers, with small hail and brief thunder possible, accompany the front. Expect ceilings to come down again to IFR with the loss of daytime heating, and do not expect VFR for the duration of the TAF. Show showers develop in northwest upslope tonight, mainly affecting EKN and BKW, and possibly for a short time in CKB. 2SM in snow will be a distinct possibility. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Categories to fluctuate in and out of shower and snow showers tonight. Timing is an issue. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M H L H M H L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H L M L L L L L M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY L M M L M M M M L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M H M L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Sunday morning in snow showers in the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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