Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 260519 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 119 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS THERE. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH. IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG. ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY... ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NE...WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM SOUNDING TRY TO KEEP SOME WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SHOWING UP ON THE VAD...SO THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION. STILL...THINK RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG. GOING IFR AT CRW...HTS AND EKN...WITH MVFR AT PKB WITH SOME THIN CLOUDS DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL RECOVER TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/26/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.