Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 130618 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 218 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upslope light rain and drizzle on the eastward facing slopes. High pressure builds in for Friday and lasts into the weekend. Another cold front Sunday afternoon or evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 215 AM Friday... Forecast on track. As of 900 PM Thursday... Cut back to slight chance of rain in central mountain upslope areas, otherwise little change to forecast. As of 230 PM Thursday... 925mb flow to bring cool and moist upslope conditions for the eastward facing slopes of the Appalachian mountains, and see this cloud cover beginning to develop at the time of this discussion. Will likely take a little time to get enough depth for the drizzle or stray shower, but once this forms, this should hold in place through the bulk of the near term forecast. Elsewhere, low level drying occurring on the leeward side of the mountains and progressing northwestward towards the Ohio River. Meanwhile, 500mb heights will rise into Friday, with another quick warm up taking place. The flow aloft will become more progressive, with the next upper trough forecast to affect our area currently digging into the intermountain west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Thursday... CAD setup weakens across the eastern slopes Friday night as high pressure shifts off the northeast coast. Low level moisture will linger over the area, however, with areas of fog or low stratus possibly developing overnight. Low level flow veers Saturday and Saturday night, as broad southwest flow begins to develop. Despite the abundance of cumulus expected, Saturday will be a very warm day with many areas near 15 degrees above average. It will remain on the warm side Saturday night as boundary layer flow increases. The pressure gradient tightens early Sunday as a potent upper level trof amplifies into the upper midwest. This will quickly move into the region with the associated cold front racing across the area Sunday afternoon. Expect gusty southwest winds to develop ahead of the front with a band of precip marching across with fropa during the afternoon. Thunder chances at capped at slight chance given the limited instability. A few post frontal upslope showers may linger across the northern mountains Sunday evening as strong CAA commences. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Thursday... True Autumn weather settles in for Monday and Tuesday as H85 temps drop into the lower single digits, with highs/lows actually running below normal both days. Inherited numbers from Superblend were adjusted down to reflect this with a frost threat by Tuesday morning in the hollows across the Lowlands and freeze in the mountain valleys. Temps slowly moderate Wednesday and Thursday. I have a mention of frost in the Lowlands and freeze for the mountains in the HWO for late Monday night/Tuesday morning.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 215 AM Friday... With high pressure over the western Atlantic, southeast surface flow will be light across the lowlands and mountain valleys, but a bit gusty on the mountain ridges overnight and Friday, before becoming light even there Friday night. Light to moderate south to southwest flow aloft overnight, will become light south to southwest Friday, and then light southwest Friday night. The southeast flow will maintain MVFR stratocu in the mountains, mainly in the ridges and eastern slopes, overnight through Friday. Ceilings may lower to IFR for a time overnight, with light rain or drizzle possible, as reflected in the BKW TAF. Otherwise expect mainly VFR conditions, other than patchy MVFR stratocu here and there overnight into Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR stratocu at BKW may vary, including improvement from MVFR to VFR Friday afternoon. MVFR stratocu and / or MVFR mist may show up at other sites overnight into Friday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 10/13/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR possible with a cold front Sunday into Sunday night. Valley fog possible Monday night and Tuesday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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