Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221045 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 645 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Drier and cooler airmass settles in through the middle part of this week. Next cold front approaches by the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 630 am. No changes with high pressure in control. Previous discussion... Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper trough axis well east of the forecast area as ridging builds in from the west. Mostly clear skies across the region outside of the ridges under increasing subsidence is allowing for relatively strong radiational cooling. With lower dewpoints in the wake of the recent cold front,this will result in much cooler temperatures this morning than previous mornings along with areas of valley fog. Plenty of sunshine along with slightly below normal daytime highs are expected today with high pressure in control.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Benign weather will continue through the short term as upper ridging transitions across the northeast. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday after another relatively cool night climbing back into the lower 80s on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday... High pressure drift east of the Appalachian continuing with dry conditions at least through Wednesday night. Then, a cold front approaches Friday keeping the area in the warm sector and chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday and Saturday. Followed WPC for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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12Z Monday thru 12Z Tuesday... High pressure in control. Northwest winds 3 to 7 kts today and near calm winds tonight. Except for late night and early morning river valley fog...VFR mostly clear thru the period. Specifically...only patchy MVFR/locally IFR fog til 13Z this morning mainly affecting CRW....then more widespread and dense river valley fog tonight after 06Z...with LIFR at the major TAF sites except MVFR at BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L H M M M H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Dense valley fog possible most mornings through mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JMV

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