Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 192304 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 704 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period. A deep low pressure system arrives Friday night and Saturday and brings potential heavy rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
700 PM UPDATE... FORECAST ON TRACK. ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MORE PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS SINCE THE LLVL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Dry high pressure moves east resulting in clear skies and mild temperatures. There will be fog development during the predawn hours. Models suggest that a warm front, evident in theta-e patterns, lifts north Friday morning keeping a chance for showers or storms. Additional showers and storm activity will come with a cold front with limited moisture, precipitable water around 1 inch. The nature of the convection associated with upper lows usually move slow or have rain over and over the same area. Therefore, expect periods of heavy rain and minor water problems. Used the bias corrected SREF and the superblend numbers for temperatures through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley late Friday night. Previous forecast remains mostly on track...so did not make any significant changes as far as PoP timing. Still thinking that the highest QPF amounts will be along the Eastern Mountains in West Virginia. Southeasterly flow will make for increased accent in the favorable upslope areas enhancing precipitation along the Eastern Slopes. Downsloping will likely be the story across Central West Virginia and amounts will be lower there with another QPF max expected in the Ohio Valley with the track of the 700mb low. PWATs are forecast to be about one standard deviation above normal in the 1 - 1.5 inch range and areas of heavy rain will be possible. If we see any flash flooding it will likely be across the Eastern Mountains...but as of right now it looks like the flood risk is low with a more localized flooding possibility. Upper level troughing will remain overhead into Sunday and some showers will remain a possibility with wrap around moisture from the upper low. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC high pressure will push into the region for the start of the new work week. This will give us some dry and warm conditions through at least mid week. Guidance is indicating a stationary boundary drifting over the region by Wednesday or Wednesday night and this will not move much through the end of the week. Several transitioning shortwaves will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR FG AT KCRW AND IFR OR WORSE AT KEKN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAK IN LATE WITH BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING S TERMINALS. THINKING VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER 00Z THOUGH CIGS MAY LOWER INTO MVFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FG OVERNIGHT MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AT KCRW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions or worst along the heaviest showers late Friday into Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...30

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.