Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 222338 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 638 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. CLIPPER/TURNING COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS RADAR IMAGES AND MODEL GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF PCPN EXPECTED. SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THEY HAVE ALSO SHIFTED THE DRY SLOT A BIT WEST. TRIED TO INCORPORATE A HINT OF THIS DRY SLOT MAKING IT INTO EASTERN ZONES...BUT STILL KEEP POPS AT AND ABOVE 50 WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF DRY SLOT. DID INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SOME AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT ONLY LITTLE CHANGES MADE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL AS EVERYTHING PULLS OUT. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY LITTLE CHANGES TO SNOW IN LOWLANDS. THIS HAS US GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILE...DRY SLOT POSITION AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO AS IS. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY...WITH MORE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THIS IS QUICKLY PUSHED OUT WITH LITTLE TO NO LINGERING NW FLOW UPSLOPE AS CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE TREND THAT WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY REMAINS...THE CLIPPER COMING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AT A HIGHER LATITUDE REMAINS. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT SLOWER BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POPS INCREASE NW TO SE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER PASSING OUR LONGITUDE. WE WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS MOISTURE THINS...850 TEMPS BECOME COLDER...SO HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES EVEN INTO TUESDAY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. STILL DRY ON WEDNESDAY. WARMING 850 TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NEXT WESTERN FRONT LONG ABOUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT MOST PLACES EXCEPT AT EKN WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FEW PLACES WHERE COULD BECOME CALM. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AT ANY PLACE AT THIS TIME AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. THIS THINKING GOES ALONG WITH THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET STARTING AFTER 03Z SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MVFR CIGS COULD REDEVELOP AT SOME SITES OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.