Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201843 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 243 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT...AND 12Z MODELS HAVE EXPANDED OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH ONLY WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM A LINE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH FROM PARKERSBURG TO CLARKSBURG. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT ADDED ANY THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...ONLY SHIFTING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS LONGER...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOCATIONS IN THE RIDGES MAY NOT EVEN CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE RIDGES THURSDAY EVENING...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY MIDNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...THINK THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MANAGE TO POP...AND HAVE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM CHARLESTON TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT HAS STALLED DURING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN LOW-LANDS. EVEN STILL...THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE CU DEVELOPMENT HAVE MANAGED TO STAY VFR...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS FILL IN. MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME DIFFICULTY DEPICTING THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TONIGHT...NOW SHOWING A LOT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS MEANS THAT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SEVERAL PORTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE CRW/CKB AND EAST RESTRICTED TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS...CIGS/VSBY AT BKW COULD DROP FURTHER. GRADUAL WEST TO EAST IMPROVEMENT WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAG NEAR TERM...TAG SHORT TERM...TAG LONG TERM...TAG AVIATION...TAX

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