Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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482 FXUS61 KRLX 210535 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 135 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward on today. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Thursday... As upper level low heads east, may still get a pop up shower across the mountains and southern coal fields this afternoon and evening. Otherwise looking at a dry day with plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs will generally be 5-10 degrees above normal. River valley fog expected again tonight under mostly clear skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM Wednesday... Mainly dry conditions, with above normal temperatures in the short term period. There is a slight possibility of an isolated shower across the higher terrain during peak heating during the period, but due to overall stable and dry conditions, will likely be just cu. River valley fog expected in mornings.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Better chances for precipitation in the long term period, albeit chances are not overly great. Maria will move north through the Atlantic early next week, with clouds, and possibly enough moisture spreading westward into the CWA for isold shower activity. Maria will eventually be pushed farther to the east as the week progresses, as a shortwave trough and surface cold front moves through the midwest by Thursday, with showers possible. At this point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain minimal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Thursday... Fog gradually forming early this morning and expect all TAF sites to get in on IFR fog. The fog should gradually break up 13Z-15Z with VFR expected for the remainder of the day. Some pop up showers are possible across the mountains and southern coal fields. Winds will generally be light, out of the north to northeast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary. Could get a passing shower at BKW this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L M L PKB CONSISTENCY H L M M M L L L L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ

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