Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 152335 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 635 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers this evening, with cold front crossing tonight. High pressure crosses Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 630 PM Wednesday... Sped up POPs a bit with this band of showers moving through. May even still be a touch slow, but do expect the mountains to slow things down a bit. The actual cold front is still northwest of Indianapolis as of 23Z. As of 1240 PM Wednesday... A band of showers will move across the area late this afternoon and this evening, followed by a cold front. Some of the meso models are showing that the band does not remain solid as it moves across the area, especially in the southern counties. Therefore, will run the highest pops in the northern counties. Due to only shallow moisture behind the front, will just run some drizzle. Can`t rule out some freezing drizzle in the highest elevations late tonight into Thursday, but don`t expect much in the way of accumulation and only on elevated surfaces.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... The period starts with surface high pressure and below average temperatures in place. Some lingering freezing drizzle/drizzle up in the mountains is possible, with just cold enough temperatures aloft suggesting actual snow flake formation before precipitation tapers entirely by midnight as LL moisture wanes. A ridge builds into the region with southerly flow turning more southwesterly by Friday night, ushering in the next system. Model disagreements are quite extensive on the location, timing, and coverage of this system... including the leading warm front late in this period. Shower activity will favor the northern counties along the warm front Friday night. Moisture availability is climatologically high with PWATS exceeding 1" near the warm front in model estimates, so may need to keep an eye on any sort of heavy rain should it train over our area. But, heaviest rain at this point is forecast to stay north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... As mentioned previously, agreement between long-term operational models is still poor, especially with timing (though improving). Still, should have modest clearing in the warm sector at some point Saturday as the warm front lifts northward. The GFS continues to be on the early side, bringing an organized convective line along the cold front Saturday afternoon and evening while the Euro lags the system from the upper level trough down with moderate stratiform rain and frontal passage Saturday night. Strong upper-level flow exceeding 100 kts, low/mid level flow exceeding 50 kts, and the possibility of heavy rain suggests widespread lowland gusts in the 20-30 kt and 30-40 kt gusts in the mountains are probable. Models agree on cold northwesterly flow after system exit, with CAA peaking Sunday afternoon into Monday. Upslope/CAA showers and widespread cloud cover are expected and favored in the higher elevations and toward the North where better LL moisture exists thanks to the warm Great Lakes/upslope influence. Ridging cuts off CAA/upslope by Monday with temperatures warming through Tuesday. The next system, again with extensive dynamic differences amongst models, comes through by mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 630 PM Wednesday... A band of showers is currently pushing from west to east across the forecast area as a cold front approaches from the west. Most sites getting a bit of MVFR visibility in the rain, with ceilings dropping into MVFR and IFR behind the precipitation. Followed this trend with gradually lowering cloud deck through the evening. Did include some IFR ceilings based on obs to the west. Also included some drizzle in the lower clouds as moisture becomes shallow. Gradual improvements tomorrow as clouds break up and lift. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of and intensity of restrictions with showers and the cold front could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H L M H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY L M H M H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L M L M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H M M H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H M M L M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MC NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ

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