Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150715 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 315 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD AIR POURS IN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AND BRINGING WITH IT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-25KTS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S. ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION COMES THROUGH IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MIXING IN WITH SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY MID MORNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK SNOW COULD MIX IN AS HIGH AS 36-37 DEGREES WITH ALL SNOW AT 34 DEGREES. STILL KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON A QUICK EXIT TO THE PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS MAY GIVE A COATING OF SNOW...WITH MAX OF ONE INCH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY...SHOWERS ARE FALLING APART AS THEY ENTER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. LOCAL MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY PULSING BACK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO DAWN...AND WILL RIDE THE HIGH POPS. QUESTIONS THEN MOVE ON TO THE SPEED OF THE CLEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE SET UP FOR A VERY COLD OVERNIGHT WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS. MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE QUICK TO CLEAR THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRATOCU LAYER...BUT TRY TO HOLD ONTO IT AS LONG AS POSSIBLE IN THE GRIDS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME WISPY CIRRUS MAY BE NOTICEABLE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND A GREATER WARM UP THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PROSPECT FOR A FREEZE REMAINS. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE DIFFERENTLY...AS WE HAVE A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION IN A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE STREAMS DO NOT PHASE...SOME MODELS KEY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT AS THE DOMINANT ONE FOR US WHILE OTHERS KEY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS DISTANT TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...AND CERTAINLY NOT AS WARM AS THIS PAST WEEKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MULTIPLE S/W TROFS SWING THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEAN UPPER TROF TRIES TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE E CONUS. NO DAY LOOKS LIKE A TOTAL WASHOUT BUT DO BELIEVE A FEW SHRA WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR THOSE DAYS. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WIND SHIFT TO 290 JUST OCCURRED AT UNI...SO EXPECT THIS CHANGE AT HTS AND PKB SHORTLY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE RAIN WITH LOW END MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE KEPT FROM LIFR CONDITIONS BY THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. STRONG FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE VISIBILITIES UP AS WELL...BUT NOT WITHOUT RESTRICTIONS. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING GENERALLY AFTER 18Z WEST AND 00Z WEDNESDAY EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED IFR TEMPOS IN HEAVIER RAIN. TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/15/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN WV MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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