Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011833 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 233 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DIURNAL HEATING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST. THESE WILL BE SLOW MOVING...BUT GENERALLY SMALL IN TERMS OF SURFACE AREA AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS MAKES THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST TRICKY...AND SUBSEQUENT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GROUND HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT...WHICH KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES GOING FOR THE LOWLANDS. WILL KEEP IT IN THE UPPER 80S RANGE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...FIGURING INSOLATION IS A NECESSITY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EQUINOX.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOWING SIGNALS ON THE SREF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...CREATING HAVOC FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...BUT COULD SEE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY HAMPER VALLEY FOG FORMATION. GOING ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE AND WILL PUT VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON LAMP GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/30/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...26

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