Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212343 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 743 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM AREA...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING FLOW AND MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. DRIER ON FRIDAY. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RADAR INDICATES SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORMS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...FEW CLOUDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WHILE MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LOCATED IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO HAVE LIGHT FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE EXPECTED WEATHER ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESEMBLE THAT FROM TODAY. DENSE FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THERE MAY BE MORE STORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO FORECASTED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NOT SURE IF I WANT TO GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE...BUT DID BUMP FORECASTED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FALLING 5H HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS TOUGH DEEPENS. BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED OUT AHEAD IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. LATEST NAM12 SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL TIME OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND THE TRANSITION OF 5H TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LATEST GFS. TOOK A CONSENSUS APPROACH BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH A NOD TOWARD THE TIMING PRESENTED BY THE SREF. THIS YIELDED ONLY A MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE POP FIELDS. FOR NOW...CHCS FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW AS GRADIENT FLOW WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG...WITH ABOUT 25 KTS AT 7H LEVEL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR TEMPS...FOLLOWED ALONG WITH BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND INHERITED VALUES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... POPULATED GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. 5H TROUGH SLIDES EAST...WHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE AND AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...WITH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...SO ONLY CONCERNED ABOUT FOG OVERNIGHT MINUS THE CURRENT IFR RAIN AT EKN. GOING TO TAILOR THE TAFS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN AND TIMING LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE LAMP GUIDANCE. SO IN A SENSE...THINKING IS THAT PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST COURSE IN THIS CASE. FOG TO LIFT AFTER 12Z GENERALLY. MORE MOUNTAINS CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT ONLY REFLECT THIS IN THE BKW TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND COVERAGE MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC NEAR TERM...JSH/26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...26

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