Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290322 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1022 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Front brings a band of showers overnight. Periods of rain with several waves of low pressure Tuesday night through Wednesday. Cooler high pressure to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1020 PM Monday...went ahead and decided to extend the wind advisory in area to include all mountainous counties as several locations are already receiving gusts close to advisory criteria. Feel bulk of advisory winds will be across the higher terrain, generally above 2500 feet elevations, but elected to issue for entire counties versus the higher elevation zone splits in order to keep consistency with previous wind adv issuance. As of 640 PM Monday...no significant changes, although did elect to go ahead and issue a special weather statement for gusty winds tonight in higher terrain counties. Agree with previous shift that wind advisory criteria will probably not be met, as stronger winds should stay off the surface, however winds will get close to criteria tonight, and perhaps even touch criteria in a couple of isolated locations, thus, the sps. As of 140 PM Monday... Models showing good lift with a frontal boundary moving through overnight. Will raise pops and tighten the pop gradient around the band. Strong pressure gradient will bring some decent winds. Models showing a 70 knot 850 mb wind. However, a strong inversion and warm air advection will help protect the ground from stronger wind gusts. Although iffy, will continue wind advisory in VA counties, but will not expand northward. This band moves off to the east on Tuesday, allowing for a mix of clouds and sunshine with temperatures well above normal for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Monday... Latest model guidance continues to be in reasonable agreement through the short term period. A cold front, which will be located to our west Tuesday Night, will move east across the region on Wednesday. This feature, will combine with a decent upper level disturbance, to result in a decent chance of showers beginning Tuesday Night and then continuing into Wednesday Night. PWATs are also going to be well above normal with values above 1.1 inch for Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The median PWAT for the end of November is around 0.5 inches with the maximum PWAT values around 1.2 inches. So there is potential for moderate to heavy rain, and generally widespread 0.5 to 1 inch of QPF. There will likely be some isolated spots that receive 1.5 inches or more if some training were to occur. Even if amounts are a bit higher than that the flash flood potential remains very low due to the very dry conditions we have had of late. The creeks/streams should be able to handle a decent amount of rainfall and if any issues arise it will be an isolated incident. In addition to the moderate to heavy rain, models suggest some embedded thunderstorms could be possible early Wednesday afternoon. However, confidence is very low and have decided to keep the mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... Colder air pushes in on Thursday behind the cold front. Surface high pressure builds in and this will keep us mostly dry. However northwesterly flow late Thursday night into the weekend could result in some upslope snow or rain showers. An area of low pressure moving northeast out of the gulf will bring another chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night through Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 645 PM Monday... Mainly VFR to start, however, SHRA will move into the area, generally after 02Z, creating brief MVFR conditions, and gusty winds. Gusty southeasterly winds will be on the increase generally after 02Z, with gusts in the 20 kt range in the lowlands, and in the 30-40kt range across the higher terrain. Winds will generally die down, but still remain gusty at times after 09-10Z. In addition, precipitation is progged to exit the lowlands by 15Z, and the higher terrain generally by 18Z, with a gradual improvement to VFR as it does so. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of shra and associated restrictions overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 11/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L M L H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H L H M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H L M M M M H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L M M H M M H H M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in heavy rain midweek.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ033-034-515>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...RPY/SL SHORT TERM...JSH/MPK LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...SL

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