Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271515 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1015 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1010 AM UPDATE...ADDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS FROM HTS TO CRW TO EKN. THIS IS GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED DRY POCKETS MAKING THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY TRICKY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. WITH MESO NAM HAVING BETTER RESOLUTION THAN THE GFS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS LOCATED...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY. WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING...WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD HAS COME IN COLDER IN RECENT RUNS. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA. APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6 INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH ELEVATIONS. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE HOLES AND AREAS THAT CLEAR HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST. IN ADDITION...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE STRATUS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN LATER.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY

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