Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221127 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 627 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system crosses this morning for a cloudy and cooler day. Unseasonably warm again Thursday and Friday. Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM Wednesday... Light rain makes its way through the area today - mainly this morning. Rain decreases this afternoon though clouds should be prevalent as upslope flow keeps a saturated layer pinned up against the mountains, so have opted to decrease max temps to the lower 60s today. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 AM Wednesday... Only minimal changes made to the ongoing forecast for Thursday. Still looks like isolated to scattered showers as a warm front lifts through, with an isolated rumble of thunder possible with only weak instability. Have a mostly dry forecast Thursday night and Friday with the warm front to the north and a cold front still well to the west. Models have slowed down a bit on the cold front, with it crossing early Saturday morning. NAM is the slowest with the front still near the Ohio River at 12Z Saturday, while GFS and ECMWF both have it bisecting WV from north to south at 12Z. Have likely POPs with the front, and a slight chance of thunder. As has been the case for the last several days, the GFS tries to bring in a good slug of wrap around moisture behind the front with a clipper type system, while the ECMWF is much drier. Lingered some slight chance to chance POPs into Saturday night to account for uncertainty during this period. Colder air filters in behind the front, so would expect a changeover to snow if any precip lingers into Saturday evening. Minimal changes to temperatures through the forecast period with blending in consensus guidance. Friday still looks to be the warmest day with high in the mid 70s for most lowland locations...and 60s across the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Continue to have fairly low confidence Sunday into Monday. GFS continues upslope snow showers Sunday, while ECMWF has high pressure firmly in place. GFS then tries to bring another quick moving clipper type system Monday, while the ECMWF has hints of this, but latches more onto influence from a southern stream system. Both models have a stronger low exiting the Rockies and crossing the Plains into midweek with chance POPs arriving from the west Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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03Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday... As of 625 AM Wednesday... VFR for now though showers expect MVFR conditions to begin to prevail with even an isolated pocket of IFR. Some obs just to our west have IFR though models don`t really move that into our area except maybe brushing KHTS. Conditions improve late this afternoon as system moves east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR may be more widespread than currently forecast. Hinted at it for KHTS and KBKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 02/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H L L AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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