Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151926 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 326 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses through this evening. Much cooler tonight into Tuesday. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the middle and latter part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday... Cold front traverses forecast area this evening with line of convective showers. These convective showers should start to become more active through the late afternoon and early evening from modest daytime heating taking place so late in this season. CAPE profiles, flow aloft, and sfc gradients point to a potential for about 30 to 35 kt max gust potential as the front moves through, reaching the eastern mountains late this evening. Cold air advection along with upslope flow should lead to some post frontal clouds remaining in place with areas of fog in valleys that have decoupled boundary layers. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler to start the work week as cold air advection continues for Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Sunday... Much cooler and very dry high pressure will will settle over the area Monday night, with clear skies and calm winds to help drop temperatures even more. Thus, much of the northern mountains will be prone to a freeze Monday night, while the remainder of the area will be prone to frost. This will be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Thereafter, high pressure continues with a warming trend into mid week under lots of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM Sunday... Typical pattern for autumn with dry west to northwest flow pattern aloft and extensive high pressure below. Thus, this period will continue to be dry with plenty of sunshine, leading to a continued warming trend, with afternoon highs above normal for the later half of the week. Nights will still be cool under good radiational cooling, leading to a wide range in diurnal temperatures this period. Relative humidities in the afternoons will trend lower, but the good news is, winds should remain relatively light, thereby negating the fire weather threat. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday... A cold front crosses late this afternoon and evening bringing MVFR in rain showers and gusty winds which will shift to the northwest. Ceilings may go briefly IFR for an hour or two behind the cold front this evening, possibly longer in the mountains tonight. After front passes, residual stratcu expected in develop, especially along the mountains and this should allow for a return to IFR, especially in moist de-coupled boundary layer. Sfc gradients diminish Monday with a return to VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain and wind shift, and degree of associated conditions, may vary a bit. Timing of improvement across the lowlands tonight may vary, and persistence of IFR in the mountains tonight is also in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M H M H M M H M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L M H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Dense overnight and morning valley fog this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KMC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.