Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251400 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1000 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL WEST/NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MID/UPPER TROF AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1000 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY TO BETTER DEPICT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS CROSSING NRN TIER OF FCST AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FCST OTHERWISE GENERALLY ON TRACK INCLUDING TEMPERATURES. THE WARM FRONT...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERNMOST ONE ONE CAN FIND...WAS JUST PUSHING INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA AS OF 10 AM. SE FLOW WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S N OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...GUSTY SW FLOW WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S S OF IT. PREV DISCN... WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CWA AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL GOAL FOR THIS FORECAST WAS TO TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT...DRYING THINGS OUT FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS NORTH. AS SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH...MAY HAVE WEAK COLD FRONT SINK INTO OUR NORTH. DO HAVE SOME THUNDER FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING AS SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS PASS MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT TOOK THUNDER MENTION OUT ACROSS REST OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL SURFACE FOCUS. THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS RELOADING LATER TODAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HARD TO SAY IF THIS WILL TRULY BE CONNECTED TO ANY REMAINING BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER...HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH ACROSS CWA. HANDLING THIS MORE AS THE NOSE OF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW THAN A TRUE WARM FRONT. REGARDLESS...DO HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF POPS DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS ENCROACHING INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY 12Z AS THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPS THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TRIED TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND DELAYED THE INCREASING POPS. LIKE THE 00Z GFS IDEA OF A DEEPENING SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH OHIO AT 12Z. BASING ALL THE VARIOUS ELEMENTS ON FRONT IN WAKE OF THAT LOW PRESSURE WAVE...REACHING UNI AROUND 15Z THURSDAY.. THEN HAVE THE FRONT PASSING A CKB-CRW AXIS AROUND 19Z/20Z...AND A EKN-BKW LINE ARND 21/22Z THURSDAY. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE A BEAR TO FIGURE FOR THURSDAY...MAY NOT HAVE GONE ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE DO HAVE RAPIDLY RISING TEMPERATURES 12Z TO 15Z EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH INCREASING SHOWERS...KEPT SE OHIO TEMPERATURES MORE IN CHECK. HAVE CHANCE OF THUNDER INCREASING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL PEAKING AROUND 25 THSD WITH SKINNY CAPE. THE DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR OF A STRENGTHENING 250 MB JET MAX SHOULD HELP THE PCPN SHIELD ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY...BUT HOPING THE FAST STEERING FLOW OF AROUND 50 KNOTS KEEPS AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH. SO CURRENTLY...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING. THE BOARD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DOES NOT PASS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. PLUS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF DOES NOT PASS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. SO LEFT POPS IN LONGER FOR MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS. THINKING THERE COULD BE ONE LULL FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY FRIDAY EVENING. COULD SEE ANYBODY GETTING A COATING THEN. CURRENTLY...HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATION GRIDS MOSTLY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN BY DAWN FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL FRIDAY EVENING. UNLIKE THE MIDDLE OF WINTER...IN THE COOL POOL...THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE USUALLY MORE CELLULAR IN LATE MARCH...SO DID NOT GO WITH SOLID OVERCAST. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR HIGH WV MOUNTAINS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MID MINUS TEENS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH TROUGH ALOFT CUTS IN. WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND BELOW...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEARER SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MODIFY OUT OF THE COLDER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS CWA...BUT EXPECTING THINGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH THIS. COULD SEE A SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY IN SE OHIO. SE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING...AND HAVE THIS IN BKW THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER CROSS A TERMINAL...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR COULD BE POSSIBLE. WIND WILL BEGIN PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHILE ALREADY HAVING SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. INCLUDED LLWS AT HTS/CRW/CKB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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