-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 201453
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1053 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING TODAY. WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT INITIALLY TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1045 AM UPDATE...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER S/W DISTURBANCE TO FOLLOW. THIS ONE NOT AS
POTENT AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. AREA OF -SHRA MOVING FROM TUG FORK AND
TRI STATE AND INTO C LOWLANDS NEXT FEW HRS. BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS
OF HRRR HAVE INCREASED POPS GOING DETERMINISTIC TO FOLLOW THIS
THRU UP TO ABOUT I64 CORRIDOR WITH LKLY POPS BEFORE IT FADES.
WITH SOME HEATING AND INITIAL SUN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THINK THIS
SHOULD REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE STOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
SLIDES INTO THIS AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE MODELS.
ANY MID LVL CAP SHOULD BE NIXED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES. ALSO SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM SSE FLOW SHOULD HELP AS WELL
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED LKLY POPS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTIONS OF THE C AND ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCHC ELSEWHERE AND ROLLING WITH COVERAGE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS. ALSO HAVE THUNDER IN...GIVEN BUILDING
INSTABILITY PER MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
STILL DEALING WITH 500MB TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH. MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MODELS FAVORING THE COAL FIELDS AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR HIGHEST POPS...CORRESPONDING TO MOST
PRONOUNCED VORT LOBE. HAVE POPS LINGERING IN THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO
TONIGHT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND TODAY...AND BASED
ON HIGH TEMPS STAYING BELOW GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...LOWERED FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY USING A BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AT 700 MBS AOB 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WITH A WEAK 925 MB
FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIN
CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES.  YET...LATE IN THE DAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY ACTUALLY TRY TO
CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO LEFT A 20 POP FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY S OF BECKLEY.  ON WEDNESDAY...TRIED TO HOLD THE
HTS-CRW-CKB AREA POP AOB 14 PCT LONGER. HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES...AND THEN
CHANCE POPS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE I-79
CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT
ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS
OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A
DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS
GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW
AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO.
ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MIXED BAG ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE DENSE FOG
FLOATING AROUND...PLUS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY
DRIFTING NORTH. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES AT 500MB CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW IN WHEN AND WHERE TO PUT IN TAF AT
THIS POINT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...THINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. LOWER CIGS MAY HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SE FLOW. ANTICIPATE MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT...SO HAVE
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING AFTER AROUND 06Z TONIGHT IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS SHOWERS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY. FOG DENSITY AND TIMING MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ