-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 092322
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STORM LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CROSSES WEDNESDAY. COLD THURSDAY. WARMING SOME FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
715 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK. SKY HAS CLEARED CWA WIDE. QUIET EVENING ON
TAP...CHILLING OFF QUICKLY IN THE HOLLOWS AND PROTECTED VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING FOR A LATE NIGHT RISE IN TEMPS ON HIGHER RIDGETOPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
16Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW STRATUS STILL PLACE BUT
ALSO BEGINNING TO SCATTER NICELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE STRATUS TO BE ESSENTIALLY
GONE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THE LOWLANDS...PERHAPS ANOTHER
HOUR GIVE OR TAKE FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOLDING OUT HOPE THAT...WITH
THE EXTRA HOUR OF DAYLIGHT COMING LATER IN THE DAY...MOST
LOCATIONS CAN STILL RECOVER TEMP- WISE AND GET CLOSE TO IF NOT
REACH FORECAST MAX TEMPS. A FEW LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY EAST
WHERE STRATUS LAST TO BREAK...MAY FALL A LITTLE SHORT.

QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. WEAKLY-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE A PUFF OF WIND OVERNIGHT ON THE RIDGETOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION...PARTICULARLY NORTH...ALSO NOTED AT 850MB.
ALL REASONS TO GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MIN TEMP MOS GUIDANCE AND
HAVE DONE SO...WHICH RESULTS IN VERY FEW CHANGES FROM PREV SHIFT.
SAME WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER 03Z-06Z
FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS SUCH AS SNOWSHOE. CODED UP OVERNIGHT MINS
HERE BTWN THAT TIME FRAME IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...WITH A SLOW RISE
TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK BY 09Z-12Z.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BYPASS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER WHICH WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP 2-3
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND PROGGED 925MB
TEMPS. ALL LOWLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK THE 60F MARK...WITH MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 60S HTS-CRW AND S/SW INTO THE COALFIELDS. WILL BE A
FAIRLY BREEZY DAY AS WELL...GENERALLY AROUND  THE 15G20KT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD COMES IN LIKE A LAMB AND GOES OUT LIKE A LION.

AREA REMAINS IN DRY AIR JUST S OF A W-E FRONT UNTIL AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARRIVES FROM THE W DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS WED.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT LEAVING MOST OF THE SRN
STREAM ENERGY BEHIND W OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA TUE NT...ALLOWING A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO CROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE PERIOD COMES TO A
CLOSE.  THE SFC LOW TRACKS ENEWD ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WED...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE AREA WED
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM IS A QUICK MOVER AND FEATURES LITTLE INFLOW FROM THE
GULF...SO QPF FROM THE MODELS OF AROUND AN INCH NW IN THE CEREBRAL
AREA TO HALF TO 2/4 OF AN INCH SE APPEAR REASONABLE EVEN THOUGH PW
VALUES CLIMB TO JUST OVER AN INCH SE.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY LEAD TO THUNDER...AND DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF STRONG WINDS.  HOWEVER...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
ALGORITHMS...AND INSPECTION FCST WIND SPEEDS IN THE VERTICAL SUGGEST
AROUND 40 KTS MAX.

DRY SLOT STARTS TO CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION LATE...BUT SOME
ANAFRONT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
THEN SNOW...AS THE COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WARM
LAYER ALOFT IN THE BAROCLINIC SLOPE.  THIS LEADS TO MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER N CNTRL WV LATE WED AFTERNOON.

USED MET/MAV BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEPT MET FOR LOWS MON NT AND
MET/MAV/NAM/GFS FOR LOWS TUE NT.  WARM ADVECTION IS NOT PRONOUNCED
ENOUGH FOR NON DIURNAL TRENDS EITHER NT AND IN FACT...ADVECTION IS
WEAKLY COLD MON NT...AND THEN THE WARM AIR IS ALREADY BACK IN PLACE
TUE EVENING.  DO HAVE NON DIURNAL TRENDS WED IN THE WARM SECTOR /
COLD ADVECTION TRANSITION.  EMPLOYED A MAINLY NAM/GFS MIX HERE.
FINALLY...OPTED NOT TO GO MUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE VERY MILD AIR
TUE AFTERNOON...ENJOY A NICE CABIN FEVER BREAK NONETHELESS...WHILE
IT LASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPSLOPE IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS PRECIPITATION A BIT...BUT WITH
LAKES STILL MOSTLY FROZEN...DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR CONTRIBUTION. ANY
COLD AIR ADVECTION/UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ON THURSDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB SETS IN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...USE A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
FILTER IN MAINLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE DENSE
HIGH AND MID- LEVEL CANOPY AGAIN MAINLY NORTH TOWARD DAWN WHICH
WILL SCT OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING
BREEZY OVER BY 15Z MONDAY ONCE MIXING KICKS IN. GENERALLY
AROUND THE 12G20KT RANGE BY END OF PERIOD...AND 20G30KTS FOR THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 03/10/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY
STARTING VERY EARLY...AND THEN CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30