Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201724 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 124 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WITH 1030AM UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED TRENDS ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY COVER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THAT SOME DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. MORNING CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. FLOW TURNS NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN THE H500 CHARTS...ALTHOUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW...RIPPLES OF VORTICITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...TO BRING LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. CODED CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. WENT ONCE AGAIN CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR REGION THURSDAY...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN LOWERING OF POPS FOR A FEW HOURS. RESULT WILL BE THAT POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NOT SURE IF FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OR DISSIPATES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BUT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY....WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED. LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THIS PERIOD. SO ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE PICTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. SO FOR YOUR MEMORIAL DAY, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT HAS STALLED DURING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN LOW-LANDS. EVEN STILL...THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE CU DEVELOPMENT HAVE MANAGED TO STAY VFR...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS FILL IN. MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME DIFFICULTY DEPICTING THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TONIGHT...NOW SHOWING A LOT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS MEANS THAT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SEVERAL PORTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN THURSDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE CRW/CKB AND EAST RESTRICTED TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS...CIGS/VSBY AT BKW COULD DROP FURTHER. GRADUAL WEST TO EAST IMPROVEMENT WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. TAX FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF COULD BE ERODED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS COULD BE ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H M M H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...TAX

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