Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 091832 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 232 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOOKS LIKE TWO SEPARATE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OUT THERE RIGHT NOW. GOT A DEWPOINT FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 50S BEHIND IT AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT BACK IN NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA. BEHIND THAT IS A WIND SHIFT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO IT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR CWA...WILL BECOME HARDER TO DISTINGUISH AS THE WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE THESE NORTHWESTERLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS WITH THIS COLD FRONT BACK IN OH/IN. MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION...PERHAPS JUST SHOWERS...WITH IT INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALREADY MAKING CONVECTION DIFFICULT...AS IS A MID LEVEL CAP. WILL NOT PREVENT CONVECTION ALTOGETHER...AND SEE IN OUR AREA NOW SOME SHOWERS PULSING UP IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. LEANED HEAVILY ON MOISTURE DEPTH IN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR POPS...AND DO NOT CARRY ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW END CHANCE INTO TONIGHT. MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CLEAR COMPLETELY TONIGHT BECAUSE OF A MOIST LAYER AROUND 4-6KFT...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PAVE THE WAY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFF TO THE WEST WILL DO SO AS WELL FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE...AND ONLY LEAVE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AIRMASS MOVING OVERALL IS COOLER AND DRIER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST... LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEAVES AREA UNDER GENERALLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING BULK OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA WHERE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. INTRODUCED SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...USING A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LEAVES SATURDAY AS A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HAVE SOME ROBUST CUMULUS FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL TO A BARE MINIMUM THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO...GOING WITH VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER 00Z...THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET TONIGHT. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS PRETTY HARD DESPITE THE LACK OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY FORECAST...SO WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS HERE. WITH THAT SAID...THE IFR/LIFR TIME FRAMES MAY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 HOURS FOR THE AFFECTED SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN BOUNCING OBSERVATIONS WITH TEMPOS NEEDED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M H M M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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