-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
892
FXUS61 KRLX 270738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
338 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the end of the week for much of
the area, but eases up slightly as the chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continues.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 8:30 PM Thursday...

Main change was to update the POPs to reflect some higher POPs
over central and southern parts of the CWA over the next several
hours, and also put in some Gusty Wind and Heavy Rain wording
for the weather grids through 04z/Midnight. Otherwise, no major
changes were made.


As of 130 PM Thursday...

Weather pattern has not change much during the past few days under
an influence of a dome of high pressure at the surface and at the
upper levels. Environment characterized by high CAPE, high PWATs,
and low shear may be conducive to severe downbursts through
this evening. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe storms as
afternoon convection will gradually dissipate this evening. The
main threat will be damaging winds and heavy downpours.

Another muggy night is expected with lows generally in the lower 70s
lowlands, ranging into the mid 70s northeast mountains. A
renegade shower or two, or a storm may be possible tonight, so
kept slight chance PoPs for this activity through the overnight
hours. Patchy valley fog may once again develop especially over
areas that receive rain.

With similar environmental parameters, expect similar convective
development Friday afternoon and evening, perhaps more concentrated
across the mountains. Hot temperatures on Friday will reach the low
to mid 90s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 70s northeast
mountains. With dewpoints in the lower 70s expected, heat index
values will likely reach or exceed the 100 degree mark across
the lowlands. Therefore, will maintain a Heat Advisory for these
areas Friday through Friday evening.

The upper level high/ridge slides east of the Appalachians
Friday night weakening its influence over our area. This could
maintain showers and storm activity going Friday night.

Another warm and muggy night is on tap Friday night, providing
little relief from the heat, especially for those without the
benefit of air conditioning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM Friday...

A low pressure system traversing the Great Lakes into Canada on
Saturday will drop down and slide through a cold front across
the area. This feature will be weak in nature but will have the
capability of producing numerous showers and thunderstorms
since summer is in full throttle with temperatures right around
90 degrees for the daytime highs. This will aid in supporting
longer lived storms with more instability as seen in forecast
soundings which are indicating up to 4000J/kg MU CAPE, however
with weak upper level flow shear is low and movement will be
very slow. This means the issues will likely be hydro along
with possible severe storms. PWATS are up near 2 inches, dew
points in the mid 70s and DCAPE up near 1000J/kg so heavy
downpours will be a given. Hopefully that frontal boundary will
speed up but right now its not forecast to exit the area until
Saturday night. The good thing is lapse rates fall off below
environmental and instability along with DCAPE falls off
leaving skinny CAPE which will mainly just support the hydro
side of things going into the evening and nighttime.

Expect it to be slightly hotter for Sunday by a few degrees
with high pressure at the surface building in, but
unfortunately it will not suppress diurnal convection although
chances for convection will be a lot lower than the previous
day. Seems like hydro would be the main issue as well with high
moisture in the column and PWATs anomalously high along with
skinny CAPE, high DCAPE and weak upper level flow once again. No
synoptic features around to support severe thunderstorms but
one cannot rule an isolated one out during the afternoon,
however the main threat will be heavy downpours with possible
hydro issues. Temperatures will remain elevated but just below
heat advisory criteria which may even get suppressed more from
convection during the daytime so any heat headlines will not
likely be needed at this time for Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM Friday...

Weak upper level ridging passes by for Monday and with surface
high pressure fleeting an upper level trough slides into
position over the area later in the day on Monday. This new
feature will likely produce shower and thunderstorm activity
through Tuesday at which point a possible frontal boundary will
pass through as the upper level trough exits toward the east
later in the day on Tuesday. Thereafter, we get a nice break
from unsettled weather due to high pressure actually being a
clean high pressure system this time around. Temperatures will
remain at seasonable or above for the remainder of this period,
however it will not be as hot as it has previously been and
apparent temperatures will stay below advisory criteria.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 AM Friday...

Late night showers and storms have begun to diminish at the time
of writing and shifting into north-central West Virginia. As the
overnight hours march on, potential for fog will increase,
especially at terminals that received precipitation earlier this
evening. Oscillating surface vsbys and ceilings will continue
until daybreak. Another hot and muggy day will yield potential
for afternoon convection across the Central Appalachians once
more. Winds will remain generally light through the valid TAF
period outside of any shower or storm progged for Friday
afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation timing and extent may vary
depending on cloud cover and recent rains.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 06/27/25
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
and early morning fog, through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031.
OH...Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK