-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 131608
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROVIDES CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1200 PM UPDATE...TRIMMED SOME WESTERN COUNTIES OFF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
10 AM UPDATE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST OF AREA WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 2 PM...AS BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE
STORMS WILL THEN ENTER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
FURTHER ENHANCE FLOODING POTENTIAL...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF CAT POPS NOW COINCIDES
WITH MAIN BAND OF FRONTAL CONVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA AND EXIT THIS MORNING. VERY GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40KTS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A BAND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY CONVECTION
SETTING UP AND SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND END UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAINS FROM THE MCS AND THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FFA OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA. FRONT EXITS
TONIGHT WILL CLEARING BEING ON THE SLOW SIDE WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER WITH
WIND...RAIN AND CLOUDS AROUND TO TODAY. TONIGHT DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANY FOG FORMING TONIGHT WITH SLOW CLEARING AND SOME LINGERING
WIND. GENERALLY WENT WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN NORTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY. WITH MODELS BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT...INCREASED
POPS SOME DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN LATE SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE DRY UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE SOUNDINGS MOISTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEAMPLIFYING...AND THEN
REESTABLISHING...THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  DURING THE INTERVENING PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW...A COUPLE OF
MIDLEVEL WAVES WILL BE RIDING ACROSS.  THE FIRST WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THE SECOND...MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND WILL BE DISTURBANCE THAT DIGS THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE INDIVIDUALLY PROGRESSIVE...BUT RAIN TOTALS MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GET THE MOST
RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.

USED HPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD.  SUGGESTED
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT FAR FROM MEX/ENSEMBLE NUMBERS AND DID NOT
STRAY FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
15Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT REACHES OHIO RIVER BY 18Z...AND EXITS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 22Z. WILL FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZED BAND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT.

GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...OCCASIONALLY IFR IN CONVECTION AND BEHIND
COLD FRONT. VFR SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST 02Z TO 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOWER CATEGORY
CEILINGS THAT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
LINGERING IFR POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. IFR FOG POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009>011-
     016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/CL
NEAR TERM...JS/JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...JS/JMV