-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 151841
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled
pattern returns to end the week with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Just some very isolated showers through this afternoon across
the Southern Forecast Area and along the mountains. High
pressure pushes down this evening and will keep us mostly dry
through Wednesday. However, moist soils from the recent
rainfall, combined with clearing skies and light winds will
likely make for thick valley fog overnight. Locally dense fog
could make for a tough commute through the early morning hours,
but any fog will burn off by the middle of tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow should be partly clouds with near average high
temperatures for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

SFC stationary frontal boundary remains over the area oriented
west to east Wednesday night. This boundary will serve as a
focus for convection mainly during the afternoon hours. Showers
and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday and Friday as
southwesterly flow pump moisture and warm advection. Models
suggest pwats values exceeding 2 inches. Any passing upper
level shortwave will be enough to act on the sfc boundary for
showers and thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Friday night, an approaching cold front will bring better
chances for showers or storms into Saturday. The actual FROPA
crosses Friday into Saturday morning enhancing strong showers,
some wth heavy shower or storms.

Broad high pressure will dominate over the Great Lakes region,
OH Valley and portions of the Mid Atlantic states. Use a blend
of models for temperatures through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

High pressure begins pushing into the area this afternoon.
Clouds will be on the decrease and light winds will continue
through the forecast period. With the wet soils from recent
rainfall combined with the clear skies and light winds, dense
valley fog is expected overnight through early Wednesday
morning. Even included some IFR fog at BKW, but less confidence
there than other sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog overnight may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week
Thursday. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning this
week depending on clouds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK