Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270805 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 405 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream systems. The first system departs early this morning with another crossing tonight into Tuesday, and then another Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Monday... Showers coming to an end early this morning as one low pressure system begins to pull away. Have some low POPs across the northern mountains this morning to account for a possible lingering shower, however for most of the forecast area it should be dry into this afternoon. Then attention turns to a surface low working its way into the Lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon/evening. Upper level support will be weakening as the system moves into the area tonight. Still looks good for some thunder. Models do show some decent CAPE -- 500-800 J/kg in the Ohio River Valley. The NAM is not real impressive on shear -- however the RAP shows an area of 40-50kts bulk shear along and west of the Ohio River. Better chance of strong to severe storms should remain west of forecast area, but there is a low end chance of a strong storm making it into the Tri-State later today. Generally looking at basin average rainfall amounts around 0.25-0.5" late today and tonight. Higher amounts should be near and west of the Ohio River, closer to the low. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Monday... Shortwave and associated weak low pressure system cross region Tuesday for more rain showers and thunderstorms. All parameters show little significant weather with this system. A ridge of high pressure builds in this systems` wake and keeps us dry into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 AM Monday... Another upper level wave approaches the area for Friday. This system is slightly more organized than the other systems this week, but not my much. So more of the same expected with thunderstorms though as a result of the active pattern water issues may become more of an issue as soils saturate though the breaks between systems obviously help. High pressure builds Saturday and Sunday for another dry break with cooler temperatures, but still above freezing - even for the mountains. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Monday... Showers should be tapering off early this morning as a surface low begins to move away. Models somewhat split on possibility of MVFR ceilings this morning. Opted to include some. Could even get some IFR, but confidence to low to include at this point. Another low pressure system will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorms later today into tonight, with some MVFR to IFR possible in passing showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be a bit more IFR ceilings overnight and early Monday morning, and timing of improvement to VFR on Monday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 03/27/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M L M M M M L H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H H M M M H H L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday night and Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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