Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031547 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1047 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY. COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1045 AM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK...HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. UPDATED POP BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED SO DECREASED WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT SOME GUSTS OF 25 - 30 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. 815 AM UPDATE...UPDATED POP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESO MODELS...AS LINE OF RAIN IS PUSHING OUT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE LOW HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS ENTERING WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND HAVE AN AREA OF 100 POPS MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA...EXITING TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN PERRY COUNTY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED...KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. GUSTY WINDS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE NAM...850MB FLOW PEAKS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND HAVE NOT SEEN ANY ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS YET...SO FEEL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE IN NOT NEEDING AN ADVISORY. CURRENTLY HAVE SPS GOING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE SOME 35-45 MPH GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE 850MB JET PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER...STILL A BREEZY DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING. WITH THE CURRENT GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISING SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR LAGS A BIT BEHIND AND ARRIVES TONIGHT. HAVE AN AREA OF DRY POPS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR TONIGHT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL START SQUEEZING OUT. HAVE SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE...COULD END UP BEING MORE DRIZZLE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS THE LOW LEVELS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. PROBLEM IS...MOISTURE DEPTH BY THAT POINT IS ONLY AROUND 850 MB AND BELOW. THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL REMOVE SMALL MOUNTAIN POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CURRENT MODELS SHOW NO SUPPORT FOR THIS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. ZONAL FLOW REGIME STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE BULK OF MOISTURE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...HENCE A DRY WEEKEND FCST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE -SHSN IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS SAT AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HIGHLIGHT SRN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY SUN EVE. THIS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROF IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR PRECIP BY LATE SUN EVENING. LOBES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 820 AM UPDATE...RAIN IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END AT HTS AND WILL ALSO BE THROUGH CRW AND PKB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. TAFS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH FARTHEST EAST TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO MVFR CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HAVE GUSTY S TO SE WINDS -- GENERALLY 20-30 KTS -- THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. THESE SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK NOW AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH AT LEAST MVFR VIS AND CIG. THERE HAS BEEN A VERY THIN LINE OF IFR VISIBILITY...AND A WIND SHIFT TO AROUND 250-270 DEGREES THAT LASTS AROUND AN HOUR BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO SE. TRIED TO TIME THIS THROUGH CRW...CKB AND BKW. DID NOT GO IFR AT EKN AS THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO WEAKEN THIS SO WILL HANDLE THAT WITH AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK AND LIFT...WITH VFR ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE COLD AIR LAGS BEHIND AND AS IT ARRIVES TONIGHT HAVE MVFR STRATUS RETURNING TO ALL STIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY AND WINDS COULD GUST A BIT STRONGER IN SOME AREAS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/DTC NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...MZ

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