Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 261031 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 631 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY. WARMER TO START THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONTS CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY. AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES ON ALL HOLLOWS EVE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 AM UPDATE... THE AXIS OF DENSE FOG WAS WANING...AS WAS THE STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS THE FRONT FINALLY APPEARS TO HAVE MIXED THROUGH ALL BUT THE SRN COAL FIELDS...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE RAISED EARLY THIS MORNING TO REFLECT. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... AN AXIS OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT BECAME BOGGED DOWN W OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE FRONT DID MIX THROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL MIX THROUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY DAYBREAK...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND THE FOG WILL NOT BECOME ANY MORE OF A PROBLEM BEFORE IT IS MIXED OUT. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE RIDGES...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATOCU IN AND JUST W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BREAK UP BY 12Z THIS MORNING...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE ITS EASY LIKE SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD...WITH NOT SO MUCH AS A CLOUD IN THE SKY ONCE THE STRATOCU IS GONE. THE FRONT LAYS DOWN W TO E ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUD TOWARD 12Z MON. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS E OF THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD...WITH JUST A LITTLE OF THE MAV BLENDED IN FOR LOWS TONIGHT...TO BETTER ACCENT A RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION. RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY...WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME HIGHS AS WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWLANDS COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. LEANED MORE ON THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AS FAR AS TRACKING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND SET BY INHERITED FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE COLD FRONT HAD MIXED THROUGH ALL PUT THE SRN COAL FIELDS AS OF 10Z...AND THE LAST OF THE STRATOCU IN THE SRN MOUNTAINS WAS DISSIPATING...AS WERE POCKETS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG IN SRN WV AND NERN KY. THUS EXPECT VFR WITH CLEAR SKY THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYGART VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT W TO NW SFC FLOW...EXCEPT A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NW THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORMATION MVFR VSBY IN THE TYGART VALLEY...OR THE LACK OF IT IN OTHER VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.