Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 111854 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 254 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. NEXT FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS OF 18Z IT STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY HUNTINGTON TO CLARKSBURG. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVING IT SOME PSEUDO SQUALL LINE CHARACTERISTICS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ALL THAT STRONG OUT OF IT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OUTPACES IT OFF TO THE EAST. DEW POINTS WERE FAIRLY LOW THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS WHICH BROUGHT RHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30 PERCENTS...HOWEVER DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE DAY WITH RHS RISING. STILL A LITTLE DRY AND BREEZY TO THE EAST BUT STAYING OUT OF RED FLAG RANGES. SATURDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL HOWEVER NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WARM FRONT BRUSHING PAST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THINKING IT WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN DRY BUT THERE STILL MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT JUST THINKING SOME AFTERNOON CU BUILDUP IS THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H850 AROUND 35 KNOTS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO WAA ALOFT...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING WARMING. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H850 INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS ENHANCING THE WAA ALOFT BRINGING SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS UNTIL MONDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ARE DUE TO A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO 14C BY 00Z MONDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 00 TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED NAM AND SREF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SE STATES AND THEN MOVING UP THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCT THUNDER WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY...BUT NOT GREAT. LOW QUICKLY MOVES UP FRONT AND CONTINUES HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA. THEN MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY... A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEN PUSH SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS AOA 3500 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART EVEN WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THEREAFTER...AS THE SHOWERS DEPART...MVFR CEILINGS FORM EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 00Z WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. CLOUDS MAY BREAK ENOUGH FOR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 05Z WITH A VERY LIGHT WINDS FLOW TONIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER...WILL START WITH MAINLY MVFR FOG 06Z-12Z...EXCEPT IFR FOG IN TYGART VALLEY AFFECTING EKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW TO MEDIUM BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IS AN ISSUE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... FOG OR LOW STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...21/ARJ/JR NEAR TERM...JR SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...JR

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