Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190600 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons is on tap through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure system crosses early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 548 AM Thursday... Weak S/W trof exits this morning. Southwest wind will pick up after sunrise and will gradually turn westerly this afternoon. this wind should keep any fog or frost at bay. Some sheltered mountain valleys could see patchy fog or frost to start this morning, but should quickly dissipate after sunrise. Moderating high pressure over the area will make temperatures a tad warmer today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM Wednesday... High pressure and upper level ridging will remain in control through the period. Another cold night expected Thursday night with temperatures mainly in the 40s. As the high pressure drift east, southwest flow will bring gradual warming through the weekend. Super blend models reflects a warming trend in increasing southerly flow, around the back side of the exiting high. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Wednesday... After one more dry, warm day on Sunday, better chances for showers or storms are possible as an upper level northern stream trough drives a cold front toward the area Sunday night, bringing an increasing chance for showers overnight Sunday night through Monday. A second upper level short wave trough digs deep into the eastern U.S. Monday night through Tuesday. Although, models are in agreement with the timing of FROPA, this timing can vary, with the front possibly pushing into the Ohio Valley as early as Sunday night, on account of the initial northern stream short wave trough. Pattern recognition and model interpretation provide high confidence that the with northern stream trough will become in phase with the southern stream low to intensify and bring numerous showers or storms Monday night into Tuesday. Have the chance for afternoon thunder ahead of the cold front, throughout the area on Monday, and eastern portions of the area Tuesday. Went with the bias corrected SREF for temperatures through the period. There will be a gradual increase in temperatures through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z Thursday thru 06Z Friday... As of 537 AM Thursday... A dry weak trof swings thru early this morning which should allow for boundary layer mixing. This should keep much, if any, fog formation at bay. Kept tafs vfr except for KEKN where a strong low level inversion will keep the boundary layer calm. VFR conditions will continue through the weekend. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kts this morning becoming west this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium for fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense fog may affect more terminals if low level winds relax. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/19/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and in rain at times early next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JS

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