Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191753 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 153 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period. A deep low pressure system arrives Friday night and Saturday and brings potential heavy rainfall.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry high pressure moves east resulting in clear skies and mild temperatures. There will be fog development during the predawn hours. Models suggest that a warm front, evident in theta-e patterns, lifts north Friday morning keeping a chance for showers or storms. Additional showers and storm activity will come with a cold front with limited moisture, precipitable water around 1 inch. The nature of the convection associated with upper lows usually move slow or have rain over and over the same area. Therefore, expect periods of heavy rain and minor water problems. Used the bias corrected SREF and the superblend numbers for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley late Friday night. Previous forecast remains mostly on track...so did not make any significant changes as far as PoP timing. Still thinking that the highest QPF amounts will be along the Eastern Mountains in West Virginia. Southeasterly flow will make for increased accent in the favorable upslope areas enhancing precipitation along the Eastern Slopes. Downsloping will likely be the story across Central West Virginia and amounts will be lower there with another QPF max expected in the Ohio Valley with the track of the 700mb low. PWATs are forecast to be about one standard deviation above normal in the 1 - 1.5 inch range and areas of heavy rain will be possible. If we see any flash flooding it will likely be across the Eastern Mountains...but as of right now it looks like the flood risk is low with a more localized flooding possibility. Upper level troughing will remain overhead into Sunday and some showers will remain a possibility with wrap around moisture from the upper low.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SFC high pressure will push into the region for the start of the new work week. This will give us some dry and warm conditions through at least mid week. Guidance is indicating a stationary boundary drifting over the region by Wednesday or Wednesday night and this will not move much through the end of the week. Several transitioning shortwaves will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms into Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail this evening under mostly clear skies. Overnight, radiational cooling will help fog formation overnight for IFR/LIFR conditions at most sites. Conditions improve to VFR by mid morning, 13Z. Expect some bkn MVFR stratocu over the mountains with just a sct VFR cu field elsewhere. By Friday, a warm front will lift north to spread showers or thunderstorms. This rainfall activity could prolong until Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing the fog breakout may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions or worst along the heaviest showers late Friday into Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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