Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 162101 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 400 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE. STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT TO PASS THROUGH NORTH CNTRL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY. INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH. ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5 THSD FT MSL. AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE. COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT BELIEVE THAT SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...NOT SURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL CHANCES IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS DROP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...FIGURING THE BEST PROBABILITY OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. DID MENTION SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE EKN AND BKW TAF SITES. THE OTHER REASON ON MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS BECOMING 1 TO 2 THSD FT TONIGHT WITH AOB 1 THSD FT ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBY AOB 3 MILES ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DETERIORATE IN SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ALSO...THINNING CEILINGS MAY LIFT...OR BREAK UP...SOONER IN THE OHO VALLEY COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY HAVE IFR IN CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB

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