Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210753 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z ON THE 22ND. W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H L L L M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L H H H H L L H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...FB

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