Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171830 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 230 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered thunderstorms in eastern WV and southwestern VA die down tonight. A cold front brings rounds of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 PM Saturday. Summer pattern continues. Scattered mainly mountain thunderstorms will die down tonight, with the loss of heating. With a day of drying for most of the area, and light gradient boundary layer flow, fog will not be as prevalent tonight as last night, and is most likely in the mountain valleys. With the same air mass in place again Sunday, scattered thunderstorms may form by noon. Thunderstorms are likely west of the Ohio river toward the end of the day Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the west. These thunderstorms can become quite strong to minimally severe, as deep layer bulk shear increases to 30 kts or better west of the Ohio River, where 1500-2500 j/kg of CAPE are forecast. The 0-1 km shear increases to 25 kts of better late, but the sigTor parameter doesn`t quite reach 1, and the mixing layer remains high aoa 5 kft. PW values are progged to climb to around two inches by Sunday afternoon along and west of the Ohio Rivers, giving rise to the potential for excessive rainfall from the thunderstorms. Temperatures and dew points close to near term guidance blends as the heat and humidity continue. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Saturday... The threat for severe weather continues Sunday night out ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds aloft will be strengthening across the region as the front approaches with 0-6 km shear values increasing to around 30-40 kts. Instability will be waning however as the night goes on, which should lead to a bit of a decrease in coverage, although a wave moving northeast through the area early in the night will lead to enhanced activity, particularly across western zones. Hail is a possibility, but overall, wind looks to be the biggest severe threat during the Sunday night time period. In addition to severe, heavy downpours are expected during this time period. PW values will be on the increase, and approach 2 inches out ahead of the front. A ffa may be necessary in the Sunday through Monday time frame. The frontal boundary will continue to trek east on Monday as the upper trough gradually sags south into the region, with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across eastern zones. The front will finally end up to the east of the CWA by Monday evening, although showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible with the upper trough. although coverage will be less.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Saturday... High pressure will build into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday for drier and cooler conditions. However, several fast moving disturbances will move through the area late in the extended period, providing chances for additional rounds of showers and storms.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Saturday... Summer pattern with VFR conditions, except in thunderstorms scattered in and near the mountains into this evening. Mountain sites may need amended if a thunderstorm threatens that area. Fog late tonight into early Sunday morning is likely to be limited to the mountain valleys. EKN is more likely to get a longer period of dense fog overnight, if a thunderstorm directly impacts that site this afternoon or evening. Any morning fog will burn off quickly Sunday morning, but patchy morning cu 1-3 kft is again possible. Otherwise the summer pattern continues with VFR conditions into Sunday afternoon, with a cu deck forming or evolving out of the morning cu. Scattered thunderstorms will start to form by noon Sunday, mainly in the mountains and west of the Ohio River, initially. Light south to southwest surface flow will continue beneath light to moderate south to southwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A thunderstorms may directly impact EKN or BKW into this evening. There could be more fog than forecast for late tonight into Sunday morning, depending upon the strength of the light boundary layer flow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L M H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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