Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270819 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 415 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH. HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND WARMING THE SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW. BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW FLOW ALOFT. AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS TO SW VA. THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRAVEYARD SHIFT...ENOUGH CONSISTENCY WITH THE 00Z MODELS TO JUMP INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM...AND INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT/LIKELY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SUNDAY. NO FRONT OR WELL DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FOG A BIT LATER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF DRYING MAKING AN IMPACT. STILL...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS DENSE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE WILL START GETTING SOME CLOUDS FILTER IN EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT SINKS INTO CWA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE WESTERN CWA...SO HAVE VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...SHOULD A CELL MOVE OVER A TAF SITE MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/27/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...MZ

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