Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262358 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 758 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA THIS EVENING. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR IN ADVANCE. FRONT WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SPC ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 06Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST OH...WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA TONIGHT. WITH SUNSET...STORMS LOOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING AND STORMS TREND TO DECREASE THEIR INTENSITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY SUNSET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... AS OF 1840Z...DECIDED TO GO WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR WETTEST COUNTIES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...IN CASE THE SAME SMALL BASIN GET MORE THAN 1 HEAVIER CELL. THE FFA IS CURRENT NOW...AND LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE JUST AS MUCH RAIN LATER...BUT MUCH DRIER SOILS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. REST OF DISCUSSION FROM 1830Z... AS OF 1830Z...CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT SO FAR...UNFOLDING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR MORNING DISCUSSION. NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS. QUESTION IS HOW... QUICKLY IT SINKS SOUTH...SINCE STEERING FLOW STUBBORN TO VEER TO NW. I MAY BE TOO FAST INCREASING POPS OVER SOUTHERN WV S OF CRW. WILL MONITOR COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...FOR POSSIBLE SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WETTEST CORRIDOR IN THE PKB TO CKB VCNTY. OF COURSE...SEVERE POSSIBLE TOO...CONSIDERING EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 30 TO 35 THSD...WITH FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K TO 11.5 K. EXPECT CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ALSO...THINKING SEPARATE AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. SO OVERALL...SEVERAL CLUSTERS. CONTINUE TO INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...WHEN POPS ARE THE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS EVENING. BASING OUR FORECAST ON FRONT REACHING NEAR PKB TO CKB AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY...AND REACHING EKN TO CRW TO HTS AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY... THEN STARTING TO RUN OUT OF GAS. HAVE DRIZZLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WAS DRIER IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...FIGURING DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON EXACT TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE A SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW IA/IL...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A RELATIVE MINIMUM FOR POP/QPF OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO PA AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE POPS DRYING OUT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS NE. USED A BLEND OF BIAS- CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ENDING UP A TOUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO GOING LOWS USING A CONSENSUS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TIMING OF PRECIP. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS BECAME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOP IN A POPCORN FASHION MAKING DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THEIR TRACK AND SEE IF THEY WOULD AFFECT ANY OF THE SITES. THE CHALLENGE IS TO FORECAST WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OR BECOMES STATIONARY. THE GENERAL THINKING WAS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. YOU CAN ENCOUNTER MICROBURST UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L M M M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009>011- 017>020-028>032-038>040-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...ARJ

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