Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 060547 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1247 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Much colder air through the weekend and into the beginning of the next work week. Some snow showers late Saturday. Another round of snow possible Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 630 PM Tuesday...Skies are clearing out a bit faster behind the front than previously forecast, so with this update sky cover was reduced moving west to east with the front. As of 520 PM Tuesday...The cold front was located just to the east of CRW and will be passing within the next 30 minutes to an hour. Behind the front we will continue to see some gusty winds, but not much in the way of precipitation. Have went ahead and updated PoP based on latest radar and timing of the front over the next few hours. HRRR ensemble looks to handling the back edge of the rain line fairly well, so blended it with the current forecast through the early morning hours and this speeds up the end time of the precip by about an hours or two. As of 150 PM Tuesday... Cold front about to cross the Ohio River shortly, and will continue its progression towards the mountains. No major changes to the near term forecast with the exception of some slight timing tweaks, but amounts are generally less than one half inch with a couple of exceptions. Front should still be of the quick sweeping variety, taking the low level moisture with it, so only a little post frontal precipitation is expected with the upper low lifting further to the north northeast. Cirrus could take a bit more time to exit, well into the Wednesday time period. Frontal passage will also signify a significant airmass change that will begin a colder period for the area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Generally dry but chilly weather is expected for the second half of the work week as moisture remains south of the forecast area. There will be some upper level energy drifting by from time to time, but moisture appears to limited to result in any measurable precipitation. The consensus blend kept things dry, so stayed with that. May eventually need to code up some scattered flurries with 850mb temperatures cooling some Thursday into Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Mean upper level trough located over the eastern US through the long term. This will keep chilly temperatures around. Dropped high temps a bit on Saturday under the consensus blend as a reinforcing 500mb shortwave trough rotates in. This should drive some snow showers through the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Sunday. ECMWF faster than the GFS in tapering off the precip, and have trended that way with snow showers ending across the mountains by early afternoon Sunday as the 850mb temperature trough crosses east of the mountains. The upper level low over Canada drifts south into the Great Lakes region early next week. Models indicating this will help a surface low develop over the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic region Monday night and Tuesday with another dose of snow. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Wednesday... Clouds will continue to clear early this morning as drier air moves in behind a cold front. VFR conditions can be expected today. Some MVFR clouds are possible over northeast WV Wednesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of clouds dissipating early this morning could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 12/06/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Widespread IFR not expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...MPK/26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...RPY

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