Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281750 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SOUTHERN MOISTURE BRUSHES AREA MONDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR MID WEEK. COLD FRONT LONG ABOUT FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WILL BE TRACKING ANOTHER S/W TROF TO CROSS ON MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF IT...TOUGH TO FIGURE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FOG FORECAST. FEEL LIKE THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO SW VA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF TROF GIVEN MEAGER DYNAMICS AND LACK OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NE KY/S WV...SLIDING INTO SE WV AND SW VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO SHOW SOME SUN ACROSS NE KY/SE OH IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ENTIRELY EXTEND INTO THE LOWLANDS AS COLUMN DRIES OUT WITH TROF PASSAGE. ROLLED WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AS A BASE FOR TEMPS...INCORPORATING A 50/50 BLEND OF MET/MAV.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVERNIGHT TREND ON MODELS WAS TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCE POPS A BIT MORE FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. STILL DRY FOR OUR MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. WARM LAYER AROUND 10 TO 14 THSD FT ON MOST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...YET 00Z NAM TRIES TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME 20 POPS LATER MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN A BIT STRONGER ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH DROPPING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WILL INSERT A 20 POP FOR A SHOWER ACROSS SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE. OVERALL...THE WEAK/LAZY FLOW AND THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THIS SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/AND ECENS MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING AMID VARYING DEGREES OF HI CLOUDS. A S/W TROF APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA HEADING INTO MONDAY ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SW VA. HOWEVER...CHANCES TO LOW FOR EVEN A VCSH MENTION IN TAFS. TOUGH TO FIGURE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FOG FORECAST. FELT MOST OF THE MID/HI CLOUDS WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS...THUS KEEPING KEKN OUT OF DENSE FOG. ELSEWHERE ENOUGH VISIBLE STARS FOR SOME DENSE FOG AT KHTS/KPKB/KCRW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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