Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261431 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1031 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passes today with showers and thunderstorms expected. Another system Monday night into Tuesday and again late in the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Sunday... Forecast on track with initial band of showers affecting western portions of the forecast area. As of 635 AM Sunday... A cold front moves through the area today bringing showers and thunderstorms. While buoyancy is on the weak side of the spectrum, wind shear is favorable for rotating updrafts in the storms that do form which lends to some potential for severe storms this afternoon. The thin CAPE profile and saturated column will keep storms low topped, but rainfall should be quite efficient as PW`s are in the 90th percentile for this time of year in the 1.25" range. 1 hour FFG values support 1.25" while 3 hour FFG values are 1.5 - 2.5" which probably will not be exceeded today though over north central WV a FFG minimum exists and the WPC has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for most of the state of WV. We also have a marginal risk from the SPC for damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 AM Sunday... Precipitation should be tapering off early Monday, however with us still being in the warm sector never have POPs going completely dry before increasing again late Monday and Monday night as another system approaches from the SW. This one not quite as strong a the one we will see today into tonight, but still enough for showers and thunderstorms. The GFS does show a bit of a negative tilt to the shortwave trough. These showers and storms should come to an end Tuesday night, with a dry day expected Wednesday. Temperatures will run above normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 AM Sunday... Details still pretty murky as models struggle to agree on a system late in the week. Both GFS and ECMWF show a surface low and closed 500mb low in the area on Friday, but have quite different evolutions of this system. With both showing something do have likely POPs on Friday based on a consensus blend. High temperatures for the end of the week should be near to just above normal, while lows will be decently above normal with clouds around. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 635 AM Sunday... Generally VFR today despite a cold front moving through. Could see some IFR form near/under thunderstorms. Some potential for overnight fog if clearing takes place, but the next system is fast on the heels of the cold front today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need TEMPO IFR in storms today.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR fog and low ceilings possible Sunday night as the rain ends. Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. && .EQUIPMENT... Radar site KRLX has a faulty component that is leading to higher reflectivities than what should be observed. A part is on order and will be replaced as soon as it arrives. Keep this in mind today since there is some potential for severe weather. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW NEAR TERM...TRM/JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW EQUIPMENT...

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