Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200235 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MUGGY AIRMASS WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH DOWNPOURS. ONE DISTURBANCE CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT SETS UP TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVES INTO AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NO BIG CHANCES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE FROM THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. MOST NEAR TERM MODELS STILL SHOW MID LEVEL 500 MB VORT AXIS MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...REACHING TRI STATE NEAR HTS BY 08Z. STRONGER SUPPORT IN NE OHIO THOUGH. SO DESPITE THE LATE NIGHT HOUR...STILL WANTED TO KEEP POPS RELATIVELY HIGH POPS A LATE SUMMER LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...DUE TO THE MOISTURE LADEN LOW LEVELS. STILL THINKING ENOUGH CLEAR TIME AND LIGHT WINDS FOR FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...FOR FOG IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS...BUT REDUCE THE FOG WEST OF ELKINS AND WEST AND NORTH OF CHARLESTON. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION MAY TRY TO DEVELOP 18Z WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT THAT EXITS TO OUR EAST...STILL KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL TRACK THRU THE AREA. ROUGH CONSENSUS ON TIMING WITH ONE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY...A WEAKER ONE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONE ON FRIDAY. TRACK WILL DEPEND ON HOW BEEFY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE W GETS. APPEARS THAT S ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR A COUPLE OF THIS DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH THE JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AND THUS EVENTUALLY A WORRY FOR WATER PROBLEMS IN AREAS THAT GET HIT REPETITIVELY. WILL MAINTAIN HWO WORDING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN LATE. AT THE SURFACE...A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEARBY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONLY AN ISOLATED CELL FIGURED OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE VSBY 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE. HAVE CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING IN SOUTHEAST OHIO 03Z TO 05Z...THEN INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 04Z TO 09Z...BUT NOT REACHING SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL TOWARD 09Z. FIGURING THAT WILL GIVE THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS ENOUGH TIME TO HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG WITH VSBY AOB 1 INCLUDING ELKINS AND THE COAL FIELDS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THINKING CRW WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE BEFORE THICK FOG CAN FORM...BUT CLOSE CALL. LAYERED CLOUDS AT 4 TO 8 THSD FT INCREASE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT. CEILINGS NEAR 2 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE FIGURED TO BE LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES COMPARED TO THE NORTH. THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY...SO FIGURING ON DECREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL HAD TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVE REDEVELOPMENT 18Z WEDNESDAYS TO 00Z THURSDAY IN THE MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY ALSO LINGER AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF THE LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE LESS THAN FIGURED REDUCING DURATION OF PCPN MENTIONED IN 00Z SET OF TAFS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IN THE HUMID ENVIRONMENT...IFR EASILY POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...KTB

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