Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190809 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV. THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAD HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN. BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION EARLY ON. BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS. HIGHS A BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR AT BKW WITH CEILINGS AROUND 600 FEET. SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 13-14Z INTO WIDESPREAD VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR CIGS COULD SPREAD TO OTHER AREAS AND SITES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/19/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ

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