Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171729 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 129 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED. AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ADVERTISED WEAK COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED SPLIT BECOMES EVEN MORE DEFINED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE COLD FRONT TOWARD US...WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR SYSTEM AND UPPER DYNAMICS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED. THE FRONT WILL SO WEAKEN THAT IT WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUS...NOT MUCH AT ALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO OUR AREA...AND WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH COOLING AT ALL FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BACK TO AROUND THE SIMILAR 70 DEGREES FORECAST ON FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70 UNDER MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE. NIGHTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF. CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO AROUND 5-10K FEET AFTER 09Z. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER AT TIMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...SL

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