Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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110 FXUS61 KRLX 050550 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1250 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TURNING COLDER. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES BY MONDAY AND LINGERS THRU WEDNESDAY. COLDER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. 10 PM UPDATE... MADE A FEW TWEAK TO CURRENT FORECAST HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE OVERALL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO GET SOME REPORTS OF SNOWFLAKES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 645 PM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAD A REPORT OF SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN ATHENS OHIO WITH THE STRATUS DECK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS DECK THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND QUITE SHALLOW BUT OROGRAPHIC ACCENT COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. LOW STRATUS DECK WILL START TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...BUT THERMAL TROUGH AT 850MB IS EVIDENT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SLOPES UNTIL ABOUT NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOMORROW AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AMID A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH...WITH ONLY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOW TO COOL HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO INITIAL SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE INITIAL LOBE AROUND THE BROAD TROF SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND MAY HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF. MAY LEAD TO SOME ADVISORIES...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE...CONSIDERING 12 HOUR CRITERIA... MARGINAL. SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME. POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEM MAY STREAK SE ON DAY 7...BUT FOR NOW...WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTH. SO DRY ON THURSDAY. IN THE PAST 24 HRS...THE GFS CERTAINLY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR. 12Z GFS TODAY MUCH SLOWER BRINGING THE MINUS 10C 850 MB TEMP...NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THINK 12Z GFS MAY HAVE BACKED OFF TOO MUCH. SO TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT CRW...EKN...AND BKW OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD SQUEEZE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WV AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE AN AREA OF CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. EVENTUALLY...THIS CLEARING COULD REACH CRW...PKB AND HTS BEFORE 09Z. HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AT BKW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH SO DID NOT ADD TO TAFS. TOMORROW EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING TONIGHT FROM MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. ALSO, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 02/05/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MPK/30 NEAR TERM...FB/ARJ/MPK SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...FB/ARJ

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