Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221743 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 143 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP. FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COULD NOT BE MUCH BETTER A MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ON TAP. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAVING BUILT IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A NEAR TERM COLD FRONT...SLOWLY DRIFTS E OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING...THIS ALLOWS A S TO SW FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO BRING ABOUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS AND LOWS RECOVER TO AT LEAST NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. REMOVED POPS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HOLD OFF ON APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE WEST TIL TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. RAISED HIGHS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FCST H85 TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT FOR MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF...WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE. LOWERED LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. SOME VFR CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT DISAPATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT. .AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ NEAR TERM...JS/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JS/SL

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