Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 302012 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 312 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through this evening. Cooler high pressure to end the week. Weak upper level system late Sunday/Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... A cold front will push through this evening, bringing an end to the rain. Cooler air moves into the area overnight. Looking at satellite, it does appear that there will be a fairly good break in the clouds behind the front. Models have some fairly large differences as to when the upslope clouds will develop in the western counties. Will go with a middle of the road solution for now. With cold air advection and low level moisture, will continue with some small upslope pops in the WV mountains late tonight and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... Will have a continuous push of low level moisture into the northeast mountains that will provide low end chances for precipitation through the bulk of the short term. As in the near term, this could become complicated due to the shallow cloud depth, temperatures below freezing at times, and crystal growth that may not occur with 850 mb temperatures struggling to get below -6C. Otherwise, high pressure will take hold of the area with zonal flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... A weak trough aloft brings the next round of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night, and another decaying system from the southern stream Monday night and Tuesday. The latest 12Z operational ECMWF depicts a weaker system than previous runs for early next week, which had been looking like a significant rain event for the area. Will wait to see if there is some run to run consistency here before dismissing a heavy rain event completely, but for now, trending towards a progressive low pressure system. Beyond Wednesday, a strong frontal system looks possible heading into the end of next week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 PM Wednesday... Rain will continue across eastern WV and VA this afternoon, pushing off to the east this evening. Conditions in the rain band will oscillate between VFR and MVFR, with some brief IFR possible in heavier rainfall. A cold front will move through this evening with some restrictions along the front as well. Generally VFR conditions will prevail immediately behind the front, until upslope clouds begin developing later tonight into Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon, then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the rain ending and timing of the cold front could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H L M M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H M H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds Thursday through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.