Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190526 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE. WILL CONTINUE BE RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST... WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER. STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE HOURLY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/19/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KMC/MZ

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