Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 120008 AAB AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Charleston WV 708 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front pushes north tonight. A cold front crosses Thursday night, but stalls just south of the area Friday. It then meanders about the area this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Warm front will cross from south to north through the remainder of the afternoon, bringing showers back into the picture. Once the warm front passes, temps may actually climb a bit overnight with everyone waking up to a very warm morning. Winds will be gusty at times tonight, especially on the hilltops and ridges. Thursday will feature the area firmly entrenched in the warm sector. There may be some spotty showers from time to time across southeast OH but most of the area should be dry, though clouds will be abundant. Despite the cloud cover, temps should surge well into the 60s across the lowlands, with a few locales perhaps touching the 70 degree mark. The front will make a run into southeast OH late in the afternoon with a narrow band of showers. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Models show strong southwest flow at H850 about 50-60 knots. These winds will bring warm advection once again Thursday. colder air behind the front will bring temperatures into the 30s Friday night. Cold front will sink southward Thursday night and Friday, and stall south of the area Friday night. Overrunning precipitation is possible north of the front, given the confluence zone in zonal flow sets up north of the area. A flat wave nudges the front northward into the area Saturday, increasing the chance for precipitation, which is most likely Saturday afternoon and evening, before the wave moves on past. Arctic high pressure over the Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday night will funnel low level cold air into the area. This will make freezing rain possible across northern portions of the area Friday night into Saturday, before the front pushes northward. This pattern will shift back south Saturday night, as the wave exits. Will add a mention of this threat into the HWO. Used the blend of models for temperatures through the period. There will be a gradual warming trend through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Sfc high pressure over the northeast and the mid Atlantic states will diminish chances for PCPN Sunday night. The front that stalls across the south, then lifts north as a warm front bringing chances for shower Monday. Another cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday keeping chance for showers. Went with the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 655 PM Wednesday... Warm front will lift north of the area early tonight, taking most of the rain showers with it. Thereafter, it will be a warm sector scenario with southerly winds mainly 10 to 12 kts tonight, except higher in the mountains; then southwest 13 to 23 kts with higher gusts Thursday, especially mountains. Ceilings will be improving early tonight as the rains leave, VFR ceilings over southern and central sections by 03Z and persisting well into Thursday. However, far northern and western areas of the area, affecting mainly PKB and CKB, will see general MVFR ceilings thru the period, and cannot rule out a passing shower. Rain showers out ahead of cold front approaching Thursday will mostly be confined to southeast Ohio this period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High south, medium north. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions may be more variable north and west. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H H M H M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Local IFR possible Thursday night in rain showers and low cigs.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JMV

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