Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291834 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 234 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WV THIS EVENING POSSIBLY STIRRING UP SOME STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. A NEW FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FAIRLY LOW NEAR 35KFT...BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE UPDRAFTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN WV AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEP PW PLUME WILL HELP TO CAUSE DOWNPOURS AGAIN...SO WATCHING WATER IS ANOTHER CONCERN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE CAN HAVE UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. LUCKILY MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY...AND TRAINING IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE AN ISSUE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE NORTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TYPE FEATURE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD IMPACT TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JW

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