Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201815 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 215 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward on Thursday. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 205 PM Wednesday. Scattered showers dot the area this afternoon, and some could grow into run of the mill thunderstorms. This should all die down this evening, leaving patchy cloud, but valley fog is still likely to form and become dense once again by early Thursday morning, before burning off by its usual mid morning time. The upper level low shifts southward on Thursday, and so do the scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have the chance only over the central and southern mountains midday and afternoon, as drier air starts to filter in from the northeast. Temperatures and dew points looked good in light of the latest, well converged guidance. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM Wednesday... Any lingering showers will dissipate Thursday night with loss of heating. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions, with above normal temperatures in the short term period. There is a slight possibility of an isolated shower across the higher terrain during peak heating during the period, but due to overall stable and dry conditions, will likely be just cu. River valley fog expected in mornings.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Wednesday... Better chances for precipitation in the long term period, albeit chances are not overly great. Maria will move north through the Atlantic early next week, with clouds, and possibly enough moisture spreading westward into the CWA for isold shower activity. Maria will eventually be pushed farther to the east as the week progresses, as a shortwave trough and surface cold front moves through the midwest by Thursday, with showers possible. At this point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain minimal.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Wednesday... Scattered showers dot the area, underneath a weak upper level low. Some could grow into thunderstorms, but they will not become that strong. The precipitation is expected to remain scattered, so no explicit TAF mention is coded, although VCTS is indicated. The precipitation will dissipate around sunset. There will still be patchy cloud around tonight, associated with the upper level low. However, valley fog is likely to form and become dense overnight into Thursday morning, before burning off by 14Z Thursday. The upper level low will start to drift south Thursday, limiting the chance for showers to the central and southern mountains of WV. Calm to light and variable surface flow through tonight, northwest in the mountains, will become light north to northeast throughout the area on Thursday. Light northwest flow aloft this afternoon will become light north tonight, and then light northeast on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need amendments to add MVFR to IFR in showers or storms this afternoon. Fog forecast for overnight tonight into Thursday morning may need adjustments on timing and density. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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