Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200535 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 135 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night. Front lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1200 AM Thursday... Increased PoP slightly over the next few hours just to get the wording of an isolated showers in the forecast. However, these showers are very isolated, but nonetheless we are seeing a few pop up. As of 1010 PM Wednesday... Reduced POPs a bit more overnight, just keeping some isolated to scattered showers along the trajectory of the showers currently on radar. As of 145 PM Wednesday... Most of the shower activity has kept to the southern coalfields this afternoon with little to no lightning activity noted. Instability has been marginal at best, and clouds have helped suppress heating, keeping any surfaced based development at bay. Thus, rainfall amounts have been light, even with the higher dbz returns on cells. Clouds will keep overnight mins up Thursday morning. Will see some increase in instability on Thursday ahead of approaching cold front. This will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. However, coverage will still likely remain in the chance category. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Focus will be on the pronged rainfall potential over the middle Ohio Valley heading into the weekend, with a cold front passage stalling south of the area, returning north as a warm front and stalling once again over the CWA with the surface low moving west to east. Extensive frontogenesis will keep the uplift going in the baroclinic zone, with PWAT values pushing the 1.10 inch range. SPC has the area marked for only general thunderstorms, but with WPC taking the 1-5 day rainfall totals into the 3-4 inch range over the southern CWA, water will be the main concern. Will have to see how areas recently hit hard this past weekend recover, and what areas receive priming amounts from the frontal passage before it retreats back north. Vertical profiles do indicate that it could be tough to realize all of the precipitable water heading into Saturday, but the flow aloft parallel to the surface boundary will keep the rounds of showers and storms moving through. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Surface low finally exits Saturday night, pulling the rain out Sunday, bringing a drier period back into play. Shortwave trough aloft lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes Tuesday night, so the rain from that system should stay north. Broad upper level trough sets up over the intermountain west, with a new baroclinic zone developing northwest of our CWA. Should stay dry until a surface low departs from the southern plains, while we get back into a warming trend. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Thursday... A stationary front will remain over the area through the day today as a cold front starts to push in from the NW tonight. There will be few showers today and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, but the bulk of the shower and storm activity will arrive with the cold front late tonight. Mostly VFR conditions, but can`t rule out some restrictions with stray showers today. Also, depending on the timing of the cold front tonight, we may have MVFR to possibly brief IFR conditions arriving into the Ohio Valley around midnight, but decided to leave this our of the TAFs for now and will take a better look at this with the 12Z issuence. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR and maybe IFR could occur with rain showers or possibly thunderstorms this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Friday morning as a cold front moves through. May also see IFR stratus behind the front by early Friday morning. IFR also possible Saturday into Sunday with another wave of low pressure.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK

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