Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191030 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 630 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level disturbances cross Friday and Saturday, then a cold front crosses Sunday morning. Cool canadian high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Weak shortwaves progged to move through the region today...along with diurnal heating...will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms once again. Storms will contain heavy downpours...and be slow to move...but not overly concerned with water issues as should be not overly widespread in nature. Appears best location for activity today will be across the coal fields and southwest Virginia...with activity decreasing late this evening. Overnight...expecting patchy fog and stratus to once again develop...along with temperatures continuing to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s most locations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 am Friday... Finally we look to break the hot and humid pattern by the end of the weekend. Models agree on a significant amplification of the northern stream this weekend...which will drive a strong cold front across the area Saturday night and Sunday. At this distant time frame...there are some timing differences among the models. Using a consensus...we prog the front across the western portion of the area Saturday night and across the east Sunday morning. Ahead of the front will be the anomalously high moisture content with PW`s aoa 2 inches. The combination of dynamics...moisture and instability will bring high pops ahead of the front. Most of these will be Saturday night and that saturday looks to be another very warm and humid day with temps reaching well into the 80s...with most of any diurnally driven pops in the west. A more organized band of showers and storms will be likely ahead of and along the front...although we continue to be somewhat cautious with mesoscale influences that can distort the synoptic scale. Nevertheless...going with at least likely pops with the front. Saturday night should still be warm and humid except in the far west where the front will pass and allow drier and a bit cooler air to move in. Finally...for Sunday...we look for a good progression of the front...exiting the mountians by early afternoon. Much drier air and somewhat cooler air will then quickly overspread the are behind the front...with most of the precip ending by later afternoon in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 am Friday... Basically continued the previous forecast...with a slight quickening of the next front Thursday. Dry and cooler air continues to move in behind the front as an airmass with Canadian origins settles in over the Ohio Valley. High confidence continues for a dry and more comfortable weather pattern through Wednesday. As mentioned in previous outlooks...seasonable early morning fog will likely develop in the climatological favored locations underneath the ridge next week. Our next chance for precipitation will likely wait until Thursday as a front...indicated on both the ECMWF and GFS...approaches from the west. Slightly lowered morning lows from Monday through Wednesday given downward trend on ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance. No major adjustments to daytime highs through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 530 am Friday... Widespread mvfr/ifr fog and stratus across the area this morning will generally improve to VFR conditions after 14Z with light surface winds. Convection will fire again...mainly after 18Z...with greatest coverage across southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia...creating brief MVFR and IFR conditions. Much of the convection will die down after 02Z. However...fog and stratus are likely again tonight...creating widespread mvfr and ifr conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog or stratus tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M L M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L M L M M M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L M L M H M H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H L H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, and in fog and stratus most mornings.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV/MAC AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.