Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260552 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 152 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY. WARMER TO START THE WORK WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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145 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AS 06Z APPROACHED. 1000 PM UPDATE... COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKING IT INTO CWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN SE OHIO STARTING TO DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWERED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BASED ON NEW SREF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING. A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS. OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY. ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DRY COLD FRONT PASSES PKB AT START OF FCST...HTS 08Z...AND THEN WILL MIX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 08-09Z. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND STIRRED UP AND PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BREAK UP TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLEAR SKY THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR FOG MAY START TO FORM IN THE TYGART VALLEY BY 06Z MON. LIGHT W TO SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE BECOMING CALM SUNDAY NIGHT. W TO NW SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG CHANGES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MVFR VSBY IN THE TYGART VALLEY TOWARD 06Z MON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/26/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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