Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310652 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 252 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12 SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40. THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TOWARD MON MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA. BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/31/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L L M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...SL

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