Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241815 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 215 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL. MUCH COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FLOW AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH WARM AIR PUSHING NWD W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ENCOURAGING CAD WEDGE ON INCREASING SE FLOW E OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WAS WORKING EWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY...N OF A WARM FRONT EDGING INTO SRN KENTUCKY. THIS SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES NWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WITH THE HELP OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE S/W LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WED....THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW LOSES ITS PUSH...SO HAVE JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE FCST AREA BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/W TROUGH...WELL UPSTREAM WED AFTERNOON. USED THE HRRR AND MET FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A SLIGHT RISE W OF AND A SLIGHT FALL E OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR A WARM WED AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE TO OHIO BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS PA...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED EASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA AT 12Z...ALONG A CKB TO CRW TO JKL LINE AT 18Z...AND THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 21Z. HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. EVEN AS FRONT PUSHES EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE TROF SHOULD PUSH EAST LATER FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLDER TREND SHAPING UP FOR THE EXTENDED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MODIFIES THE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE MARCH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL KNOCK THEM BACK DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING NWD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL CAUSE LITTLE FLIGHT CAT RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING SE FLOW ON THE E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY TO BRING MVFR STRATOCU THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WED. A STRATOCU DECK MAY REACH THE OHIO RIVER FROM THE W TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE MIXING OUT WED AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO SE TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN FROM THE S WED...POSSIBLY BECOMING A BIT GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES. LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO MODERATE BY WED MORNING...AND BE MODERATE TO STRONG SW THROUGH MIDDAY WED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD BE SLOWER DEVELOPING AROUND BKW THAN FORECAST. THESE CIGS MAY GET CLOSE TO IFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO MVFR CEILINGS REACHING THE OHIO RIVER MIDDAY WED. THE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THIS FROM BECOMING TOO MUCH OF A FACTOR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THU. IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/26 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM

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