Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220740 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 340 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead. Dry cold front late Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Forecast remains on track with a quiet night expected. Residual cirrus remains in the mountains and is not expected to dissipate overnight, so updated sky grids to reflect this trend. Also, shaved another degree or two off overnight lows outside the mountains with efficient radiational cooling well underway under clear skies. As of 1015 PM Wednesday... Forecast mainly on track. Added some sky coverage to account for cirrus over eastern parts of CWA. This does seem to be thinning out per satellite so only lingered for several more hours. As of 105 PM Wednesday... High pressure in control tonight and Thursday. Based on the performance of MOS guidance over the last couple of days...will go on the lower side of MOS guidance tonight...and on the warmer side during the daytime. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 340 AM Thursday... Very little change to the short term forecast...with upper ridge remaining in control. A weak back door cold front will slide through the region on Saturday night into Sunday...but this front will be mostly dry with just a slight chance for a shower in the Northern Mountains. The front will bring little change to temperatures as we will not see a change in the pattern until well into the long term portion of the forecast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... What looked like a promising legit Autumn front for early next week has been squashed by the global models. The emerging trend is for the blocking pattern to set up where the upper low/trof is further west than in previous runs. This keeps the area under the influence of upper level ridging thru early next week with a continuation of much above normal temperatures. In fact we may not be done with 90 degrees across NE KY/S WV. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Only minor tweaks to aviation grids and TAFs this issuance. Slightly larger dewpoint depressions were observed during the evening versus the same time yesterday, which should delay onset of fog/mist overnight. Decided to go ahead and bring HTS down to IFR tonight as well based on current observations and near term guidance, so all sites except BKW are expected to have at least a period of IFR. VFR conditions return by mid morning area wide, with some cumulus possible tomorrow afternoon. As of 745 PM Wednesday... High pressure will bring clear skies and calm winds tonight. This should lead to river valley fog at most valley TAF sites. Used a combination of persistence from last night and the gridded LAMP for visibility. Have IFR at all sites except BKW and HTS. For HTS...models showing a bit drier forecast overnight thus lower probability of fog. Other than a few cumulus tomorrow afternoon, clear skies expected with VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/22/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Dense morning valley fog is possible into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/DTC NEAR TERM...MZ/DTC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...DTC

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