Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 120644 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 244 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses today with some showers and storms expected. High pressure crosses to north Sunday. Next low pressure system in the vicinity Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 0200 AM Saturday... A Cold front over Southeast Ohio into central Kentucky will continues to move eastward today. Showers and Thunderstorms associated with the front are just moving into the area early this morning and will progress eastward and become more numerous later this morning and this afternoon. The front is expected to exit the area by late afternoon and early evening. The cooler airmass behind the front will ease in overnight and temperatures will fall into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Saturday... Dry air in place as a high pressure system crosses to the north on Sunday. Some models showing potential for an isolated shower across the eastern slopes, but opted to keep dry for now with limited moisture. Better moisture in place Monday into Tuesday. A weak surface wave, along with ripples in the 500mb flow should kick off some showers or thunderstorms during this time frame. Have high chance POPs across the mountains, tapering off to near zero along and west of the Ohio River.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Saturday... Brief high pressure moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday night, although did maintain some POPs across mainly SW VA with some lingering moisture and the potential for an upper level disturbance passing by just to the south. The GFS is much more robust with this feature than the ECMWF. Another system approaches for the end of the week. Timing differences abound between the GFS and ECMWF. Used a consensus blend for this time frame, but capped POPs at low end likely due to timing differences.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 0200 AM Saturday... MVFR conditions at all sites except CRW and BKW early this morning. Expect all sites to go MVFR/IFR in Fog and Cigs as a cold front over SE Ohio and central KY continues to move eastward. This front will should be on the Ohio river by 12z and from CKB to CRW line by 18Z and exit the area by 00Z. Expect MVFR/IFR showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous as the front passes through the region today. AS the Skies clear behind the front tonight and with plenty of moisture around, expect MVFR/IFR fog to form after 03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of cold front and development of shwrs/tstms may vary today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/12/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L M L L M M H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L L M M L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L M M M M L AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR fog possible overnight with clearing skies. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JS

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