Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210636 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 236 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper disturbance passes Tonight. High pressure Wednesday night and Thursday. Warm front Friday. Cold front over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 235 AM Tuesday... Overall, drier weather expected in the near term period than as of late. Still have area of showers pushing east through the CWA this morning, but once it goes through, looking at a mostly dry period, but with plenty of cloud cover hanging around for much of the day. May see some breaks across the north later today, but clouds will increase again later this evening and tonight, as an upper disturbance moves through the region. Elected to make no changes to the previous max t forecast, which is several degrees lower than current guidance, due to expected cloud cover today. As mentioned, a weak wave will move across the area late tonight. There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to whether much if any precipitation will be realized, but elected to keep a slight chance across the mountains and central/southern zones late tonight. Otherwise, much of the area should remain dry overnight, with a stronger wave of low pressure and its associated moisture tonight looking to remain to the south of the CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Monday... Tuesday morning finds a cold front at least half the way through the forecast area, and an upper level wave moving off to the east. The cold front slips southward, through the remainder of the area, by Tuesday afternoon, taking any showers with it. Left a small chance for thunder in the extreme south midday Tuesday, just before the front moves through there. Models show a flat wave moving across the area Tuesday Night, bringing about a renewed chance for precipitation. Given the sloping baroclinic zone on the north side of the front south of the area, we are looking at mainly mid and upper level moisture and hence light precipitation. The colder air moving in behind the front may allow a transition from rain to snow from north to south overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with very light accumulations possible in the mountains. Cloud temperatures favoring crystal growth and dry air below the cloud base favor a transition of any precipitation to snow during this time. Strong high pressure featuring cold and very dry air dominates Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, as it passes north of the area. Temperatures close to central guidance including a very cold Thursday morning, about ten degrees below normal, for a hard freeze for any agricultural interests. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM Monday... Warm advection precipitation may scoot across northern portions of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The retreating cold air may hang on long enough for snow furthest east, across northeastern WV. The area breaks out into a warm sector Friday afternoon into Saturday. A cold front approaches later Saturday and is likely to cross later Saturday night or Sunday, ahead of which thunder is possible. Low pressure approaching from the west on Monday may lead to a continued or renewed chance for precipitation. Have lows occurring early Thursday night as warm advection develops overnight. Otherwise temperatures close to central guidance, which is a little below the MEX over the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Tuesday... Still an area of moderate showers and isold -tsra across southern Ohio and central WV, creating brief MVFR/IFR conditions. These will largely move east of the higher terrain by 09Z, with just areas of -shra lingering across the mountains through 16-18Z, with areas of mvfr conditions. Otherwise, gradual improvement to VFR expected, particularly across lowland locations after 18Z. Mountains may hold onto MVFR for much of the day. Light surface winds during the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of IFR conditions tonight and Tuesday morning uncertain. Also, timing of improvement to VFR conditions uncertain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M M M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M L H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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