Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201030 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 425 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING TODAY. WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. COLD FRONT INITIALLY TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... STILL DEALING WITH 500MB TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH. MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MODELS FAVORING THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR HIGHEST POPS...CORRESPONDING TO MOST PRONOUNCED VORT LOBE. HAVE POPS LINGERING IN THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND TODAY...AND BASED ON HIGH TEMPS STAYING BELOW GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS BY USING A BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FLOW AT 700 MBS AOB 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A WEAK 925 MB FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIN CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. YET...LATE IN THE DAY...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY ACTUALLY TRY TO CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD THE WV/VA BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO LEFT A 20 POP FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MOSTLY S OF BECKLEY. ON WEDNESDAY...TRIED TO HOLD THE HTS-CRW-CKB AREA POP AOB 14 PCT LONGER. HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SE STATES...AND THEN CHANCE POPS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE I-79 CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD IN FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW AND A DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO. ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MIXED BAG ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE DENSE FOG FLOATING AROUND...PLUS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DRIFTING NORTH. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES AT 500MB CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW IN WHEN AND WHERE TO PUT IN TAF AT THIS POINT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...THINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. LOWER CIGS MAY HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SE FLOW. ANTICIPATE MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT...SO HAVE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING AFTER AROUND 06Z TONIGHT IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS SHOWERS PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. FOG DENSITY AND TIMING MAY VARY TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H L M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H M M H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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