Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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633 FXUS61 KRLX 270211 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1011 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak east to west frontal boundary will dissolve over the area overnight and Wednesday. An upper level system will tap copious moisture to likely produce heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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1000 pm update... With the area of showers and thunderstorms and its causative upper level short wave trough having moved on to the east, the flash flood watch is cancelled an hour early. However, in the very humid air mass, with a weak surface boundary across Ohio and northern WV, and lingering weak ripples in the westerly upper level flow, cannot entirely rule out the chance for another shower or thunderstorm overnight. 800 pm update... Forecast on track as main area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with an upper level trough, moves out of the area. Still allow for a slight chance overnight. 545 pm update... Hiked PoPs into this evening with thunderstorm complex associated with weak upper level short wave trough rolling through. Previous discussion... A weak but persistent east to west frontal boundary meanders back and forth across the northern portions of the area this period. The addition of upper disturbances riding eastward across the area on the southern edge of westerlies and PW`s aoa 2 inches will lend to a general unsettled pattern for showers and storms. Will tie the best chance for convection to the favored afternoon adn early night time frame. Have hoisted a flash flood watch most of northern half of area through 11 pm tonight...given one well defined vort max over southwestern Ohio and increasing area of heavy convection well ahead of it near the frontal boundary. Otherwise...as the vort moves east of the area tonight...expect convection to really diminish...leaving widely scattered showers in the north after midnight. Will do similar pops again Wednesday with little change in the pattern. It will continue hot and humid through Wednesday...but should be a touch below heat advisory criteria.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Active weather to start the short term period...with warm and humid conditions to persist. Stalled frontal boundary across northern zones will lift north of the area during the day Thursday as upper shortwave trough approaches from the west. Strong llj developing across the region...will aid in moisture transport...with pw values rising to over 2 inches Thursday. Wave of low pressure moving north through the region Thursday and Thursday night...will help to enhance precipitation...with showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours expected. In addition...could see strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday...with the potential for stronger winds aloft to be brought down to the surface. Will place the mention of possible water headlines for the Thursday/Thursday night time frame. Still difficult to pinpoint any area of heaviest precipitation/greatest threat...so will highlight entire cwa in the hwo for now. Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for later in the day Friday and Friday night as an upper shortwave trough crosses the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across the region. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level short wave trough crossing the area were crossing the mountains as of 00Z. They will move on out by 02Z, with MVFR conditions the likeliest worst impact, with a very low chance for thunder. While a shower or thunderstorm remains possible overnight and Wednesday, the expected coverage is too low to explicitly code up in the TAFs. However, there will be some uptick in coverage in the afternoon heating on Wednesday. Otherwise, valley fog is possible overnight through dawn unless a stratocu deck forms again. Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Flow aloft will continue light west. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of Fog formation and intensity may vary overnight. A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site Wednesday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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