Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271910 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 310 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure crosses tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints on the increase through the end of the week. Cold front late Saturday/Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Models continue to settle Canadian high pressure directly over the area tonight, allowing for clear skies after some afternoon cumulus clouds, and near calm winds. This will bring ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight. Little change to previous thinking concerning low temperatures tonight, which remain close to but just above record values in the major metropolitan areas. However, record lows may be reached in the more protected valleys by dawn Wednesday. These lows we have forecast are actually on the low side of the vast majority of guidance, but cannot neglect the ideal cooling scenario. In addition, despite the dry air in place, there will likely be some river valley fog later tonight, mainly at CRW and EKN. So, will not get carried away with the fog given the dry air in place. For Wednesday, the high moves off to the east with a southerly flow developing. Under abundant sunshine and still relatively dry air, temperatures will rebound to around 80 degrees or so. Forecast lows tonight are close to records in some cases: LocationForecast low tonightRecordYear CRW Charleston 51 50 1988 HTS Huntington 51 47 1915 PKB Parkerburg 50 48 1988 EKN Elkins 43 39 1988 BKW Beckley 49 39 1955 CKB Clarksburg 49 46 1927 && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM Tuesday... Slow retreat of Canadian high pressure off the coast will translate into warming temperatures through the end of the week with primarily dry weather, although the northwest zones will be exposed to low chances from northern stream upper level energy. No major changes to the forecast overall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM Monday... Shower and thunderstorm chances on the increase with an arriving cold front and upper level trough spinning through the Great Lakes. Without a clean passage of the upper low, with it only rotating northward as oppose to eastward, the unsettled weather will tend to linger with the front taking some time to finally exit the mountains. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 19Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday... As of 245 PM Tuesday... This afternoon, scattered cu deck, 4-6 kft AGL. Northwest winds generally 5 to 12 KTS this afternoon. Clear, calm, cool night tonight as high pressure crosses, with river vally fog forming that can go IFR, especially at EKN and CRW 07Z-12Z. For Wednesday, VFR mostly clear with winds becoming light southerly. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium tonight for fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley IFR fog later tonight may be more widespread than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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