Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 200028
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
724 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017
Active pattern returns with a warm front crossing overnight
into Friday, followed by a stronger system early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 725 PM Thursday...
Cirrus is not stopping radiation this evening, so will lower
overnight lows several degrees, closer to the latest lamp guidance.
As of 215 PM Thursday...
Midlevel clouds and cirrus are arriving out ahead of a warm
front this afternoon. Up north at Parkersburg through
Clarksburg, the edge of the low level stratus is slowly inching
northward, but with no sunshine so far today I had to pull back
high temperatures in these areas to the upper 40s. They still
have a chance to see some late afternoon sun, but overall temps
will not warm too much from current values.
Clouds will continue to increase ahead of an approaching warm
front through the evening. Overall, I just tweaked the timing
for the arrival of rainfall just a bit later from the previous
forecast. Rainfall will be light with widespread QPF amounts of
a quarter to a third of an inch. Rainfall will end from south to
north starting tomorrow morning, but the Northern Mountains
will likely see light rain continue well into the afternoon.
After the warm front passes we will warm up well into the 60s
tomorrow across a large portion of the forecast area. Depending
on the amount of clearing tomorrow, some areas will likely climb
into the upper 60s.
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Thursday...
Very mild period in the wake of a warm front lifting through on
Thursday. Low cloud and patchy fog around early Saturday morning
should mix out by late morning. However, a warm front will bring an
increase in clouds again, along with the chance for showers by
late Saturday. Models are not as focused with precipitation
associated with this front as in earlier runs, and the rainfall
is not likely to amount to much.
A major piece of energy coming eastward out of a long wave
trough over the western U.S., barrels across the gulf states
Sunday and Sunday night. Rain overspreads the area on Sunday in
response to this system. The coverage becomes less certain
Sunday night for different reasons. With its western track, the
NAM would shoot a dry slot northward into the area. In sharp
contrast, the global models continue trending farther south and
east with the track, actually trying to shunt precipitation to
the south of the area.
No important deviations from guidance on temperatures as the
January thaw continues, other then to lean on the high side on
highs this weekend.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM Thursday...
Upper level low moves up the east coast Monday through Tuesday.
While the models continue to trend eastward with the track,
rain still appears likely on Monday as surface low pressure
tracks northeastward through eastern NC and southeast VA.
Precipitation gradually pulls out / tapers off Monday night and
Tuesday, as the system moves northeastward, away from the area.
While the system will not have any access to fresh cold air,
cold air produced dynamically aloft may be enough for snow
across the higher terrain by early Tuesday morning.
A cold front may bring rain showers Wednesday. There may be
light showers Thursday across the north and in the mountains,
in west to northwest upslope flow, a Lake MI trajectory, and
weak disturbances on the cyclonic shear side of the upper level
flow. While it will still be too warm for snow outside the
mountains for most part on Thursday, the Wednesday front does
signal the beginning of a change back to colder weather, with a
long wave trough position in the east, and strong west coast
Temperatures close to guidance and still a little above normal.
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 605 PM Thursday...
A warm front will push northward across the area overnight into
Friday. This will provide ceilings lowering into the MVFR range with
some rain as well. Some brief IFR conditions are also possible in
the heavier rain. The front will push north of the area on Friday,
allowing VFR conditions to return starting first in the south. Some
showers can not be ruled in the warm sector on Friday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lowering ceilings and rain
restrictions could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...