Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 300636
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early
next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter
interlude during the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM UPDATE...
Forecast on track with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as
they move up through the middle Ohio valley overnight, and the
flood threat waning.
745 PM UPDATE...
Widely scattered shra/tsra will wane over the area as the evening
progresses. Cant fully take pops out overnight with the subtle
ripples in the flow traversing thru the region. In fact...an
uptick in coverage may present itself after midnight across
portions of SE OH and N WV. Otherwise...low stratus and fog will
develop with areas that received rain taking the dive first.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
were developing across the region at this time. With continued
heating...expect the areal coverage to continue to increase.
Models indicate a trough axis will approach the forecast area from
the west tonight and then remain in the area on Saturday. Several
disturbances will move through the upper level flow, one this
evening and another on Saturday.
The disturbance this evening should result in some showers and
storms overnight. However, expect the areal coverage to decrease
with the loss of sunshine.
With abundant low-level moisture in place, expect a repeat of
last night with some stratus and valley fog developing.
Expect conditions will slowly improve after sunrise with some
sunshine possible by late morning.
Another disturbance will combine with daytime heating and low-
level moisture to result in the development of showers and storms
by late morning on Saturday. The storms should become more
numerous across northern and western portions of our forecast area
and because of this, I have gone with likely pops in those areas.
PW values still expected to be around two inches with each of
these features. This moisture and light deep layer flow will
continue to support locally heavy downpours.
Because temperatures looked good, I did not make any significant
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Models showing moisture remaining over the region on Sunday. Showers
and thunderstorms are once again possible...more likely in the
afternoon and evening hours. By Monday...Nam shows a wave moving
over the area that other models are not showing. Some of the other
models are showing a vorticity lobe however...which does lend a bit
a credence to the NAM solution. Will hedge the forecast a bit just
in case...but not fully buy the NAM solution. By Tuesday...NAM still
showing moisture over the region while other models are dry. Since
current forecast is dry...will stay with consistency for now.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall...drier to start next week...with high pressure...surface
and aloft in control. Upper ridge strengthens across the area mid
week...with increasing temperatures. Looking at generally diurnal
showers and thunderstorms...mostly in the mountains...although a
slight chance cannot be completely ruled out elsewhere. Frontal
boundary approaches late in the extended...but at this point...lots
of uncertainty in timing.
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Still a low to medium confidence forecast as to the extent of
stratus and fog overnight. Have IFR developing all sites but
dense fog only at PKB and EKN. The stratus will again take much
of Saturday morning to mix into an MVFR stratocu deck and then
mix out into a VFR cu field for the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible mainly across the middle
Ohio Valley and northern WV overnight, and then most likely these
same area Saturday afternoon.
Fog and stratus are likely to begin forming again by 06Z Sunday,
but showers and thunderstorms remain possible Saturday night.
Flow surface and aloft will be mainly light southwest.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The fog and low cloud forecast for overnight
into Saturday morning depends upon higher clouds and
precipitation, with dense fog possible at any of the sites. A
thunderstorm may directly impact an airport with IFR conditions
anytime through 06z Sunday.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 07/30/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M M M H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into
the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, but mainly Monday, which
would in turn make Tuesday morning a better candidate for fog and
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