Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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907 FXUS61 KRLX 241743 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 143 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure mid week. An organized system crosses late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Post frontal stratocu in abundance across the area as CAA aloft commences. It will be a chilly night tonight and with high pressure trying to nose in from the northwest, frost possibilities arise. However, as if often the case around these parts, nothing is never clear cut. There is considerable concern for stratocu to linger across the northern WV mountains and adjacent lowland counties overnight in northwest flow. This is backed up by various model soundings including HRRR low level profile. Experience warrants this concern and thus frost may be mitigated across aforementioned locations. Further to the south and west, this should not be much of a concern so that areas of frost are likely across portions of southeast OH and central WV with patchy frost across the cold spots in northeast KY and elsewhere. After coordination with surrounding offices, elected to hoist a frost advisory for most of southeast OH and extending east into central WV, while leaving out the mountains for the above reasoning. Tuesday is shaping up to be a stellar Autumn day with just some passing high clouds as temps run a little below normal for this time of year, mainly across the north. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 AM Monday... High pressure builds overhead Monday night, when mostly clear skies and cold temperatures will allow for frost possible across the forecast area. Additional frost will be possible Tuesday night. It is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the sheltered mountain valleys. Winds will be around 5 mph from the north northwest. Most sections will see clearing through the day. A low pressure system move over the OH Valley and WV Thursday morning. Likely PoPs across the north and high chance across the rest of the area. PoPs gradually diminish Thursday night into Friday. Went closer to the blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 323 AM Monday... High pressure takes control once again on Friday with dry conditions. Another low pressure system drives a cold front to the region by Sunday morning. Coded likely PoPs mainly north and Northeast mountains and high chance for the rest of the areal. Used a blend of models ensembles for temperatures and dewpoints through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Gusty northwest winds around 20 kts will continue thru 21Z before subsiding. Post frontal stratus will dissipate across southern terminals this evening but linger most of the night for the northern sites to include KEKN and KCKB, but should continue to remain VFR. This should mitigate fog at EKN overnight. Guidance indicates enough of a dewpoint spread to mitigate fog elsewhere and with the lack of a strong low level inversion, have left fog out elsewhere as well. Tuesday will feature a light northwest flow aloft and north flow at the surface. Just some passing high clouds are expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight and high tomorrow. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Should stratus dissipate overnight, then dense fog is likely at KEKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Wednesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ008>011- 016>020-027>029. OH...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ066-067- 075-076-084-085. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.