Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281459 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1059 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure brings a stellar aftwenoon, before yielding to a southwest flow of warmer and more humid air Thursday through Saturday. Cold front crosses Saturday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No changes needed. Only Charleston tied a record low temperature of 50 degrees this morning. As of 630 AM Wednesday... Forecast on track this near record cool morning - in fact, at least tied a record so far at Charleston at 50 degrees. As of 320 AM Wednesday... High pressure building over the area early this morning, with its clear sky and light wind, was allowing temperatures to fall to near record levels: LocationForecast low this morning Record Year Current as of 6 am CRW Charleston 51 50 50 1988 HTS Huntington 51 51 47 1915 PKB Parkerburg 50 50 48 1988 EKN Elkins 43 43 39 1988 BKW Beckley 49 47 39 1955 CKB Clarksburg 49 48 46 1927 The high will bring about a stellar day today, with a warmer afternoon. South to southwest flow tonight will bring in increasing moisture, resulting in patchy cloud. The clouds, along with the gradient flow, and warmer air, will lead to a warmer night, especially on the hill and ridgetops. Blended in the MET and MAV for highs today and lows tonight, still a little below both beneath high pressure today. For lows tonight, lowered the valleys a bit and raised the hill and ridgetop a bit, increasing the ridge / valley split that the models indicated.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Broad high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast, will extend west into WV Thursday night. This will continue to bring mostly clear skies and warm temperatures through Friday. Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly approach from the northwest stalling to our north Saturday. Its vicinity could enhance the formation of showers or storms during the afternoon hours. Models show a series of upper level shortwaves that should keep the warm sector convectively active through the weekend. Overall, dry Thursday and Thursday night with PoPs increasing to likely by Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... By Sunday, with the weakened stationary front just north of the area, chances for pcpn diminish to bring dry conditions Sunday and Sunday night. Additional upper waves will keep unsettled weather through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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15Z Wednsday thru 12Z Thursday... As of 1045 AM Wednesday... High pressure brings VFR with only scattered cirrius, and a light south wind, thru thru period. Fog is not expected tonight outside of a possible brief period of MVFR in the most protected valleys around sunrise Thursday. For now will leave EKN out of fog tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM/JMV

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