Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030619 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 219 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER A PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTHWEST IN...INTO NORTHERN IL...WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES SOMEWHERE IN THE 15-18Z TIME PERIOD...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES...AS MODELS INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES...3000+ J/KG CAPE...AND 35-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS WELL AS INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY...AND MAY EVEN HAVE SOME LOWER CLOUDS HANG OUT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THE WARM SIDE. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS PUFFS OF WIND MAY STILL EXIST INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY...WITH MODELS HOLDING ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE INCREASE...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH CHANCE AND LOW END LIKELY POPS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WARRANTING HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE FRONT END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING IT OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 09-12Z. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE GENERALLY AFTER 15Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 18-20Z. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IN VICINITY OF STORMS...AS WELL AS BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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