Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 182015 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 415 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY. ANY WEAK FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...SL

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