Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 270838
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
338 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
Warmer weather moving in with a strong cold front expected
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...
This will be a transition period toward warmer and unsettled
weather. Models in very good agreement on an upper disturbance
lifting a weak warm front northward across the area today.
Models actually split the energy with this upper feature as it
approaches, with one piece tracking mainly across the north
portion of the area, and a second piece tracking south of the
area. This means while clouds will be widespread today across
the area, precip chances will most likely be restricted to the
north. Since the air is initially quite dry, will keep highest
pops in the chance range today up north, and any QPF that may
occur would be very light at best. Despite the clouds today,
southerly flow behind the warm front will boost temperatures.
Look for highs today in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s far
For tonight, the upper disturbance and warm front will be north
of the area, but another upper disturbance will approach late
tonight from the southwest. So, we start out dry and bring a
low chance of rain showers late, especially west. With the
clouds and south breeze tonight, low temperatures will only be
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Monday...
Highlight of the short term will be the approaching cold front
and potential water/severe weather threats heading into
Flows increase ahead of the front with strong shear profiles,
and 850mb dewpoints on the increase to 10C. Decent available PW
with NAM showing 1.25 inches aided by surface dewpoints pushing
the 60F mark, especially for the beginning of March. Looking at
the potential for a stout line of storms to roll through with a
low end severe potential and marginal potential for excessive
rainfall. From the QPF standpoint, the system looks to be
progressive, and should move quickly thru the CWA. Storms would
likely bring wind, but given the time of year, hail would
certainly not be ruled out and should easily sustain themselves
moving south and east with height falls aloft. SPC day 3 has the
whole CWA in the slight risk, and will add this to the HWO.
In the wake of the cold front, residual moisture will result in
rain/snow showers Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM Monday...
Broad scale trough aloft situated over the Great Lakes takes the
temperatures back below normal, reinforced Thursday night with
another embedded short wave within the broader scale flow.
Pattern becomes more zonal heading into the weekend with strong
temperature recovery back into the 15-20 degree above normal
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z Monday thru 06Z Tuesday...
As of 120 AM Monday...
An upper level disturbance will lift a weak warm front northward
across the area today, with winds becoming southerly 3 to 8 KTS.
Today...This disturbance and warm front will bring widespread
clouds today, and a chance of a light rain shower across the
north. However, the low levels are quite dry when this
disturbance and warm front move across, thus, VFR ceilings
4000-10000 feet and VSBY AOA 7SM will generally prevail. The
exception may be over southeast Ohio and northern WV where brief
periods of MVFR are possible in scattered light showers.
Tonight...As one disturbance lifts north of the area early,
another will approach toward the end of the period, with a low
chance of a shower in the west by 06Z. In any case, expect VFR
conditions and light south winds.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers are not included in the TAFs
due to chances of precipitation being below 50 percent.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/27/17
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.