Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100603 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 100 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. 715 PM UPDATE... UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10 COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW. AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION. OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM... THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF FLUFF. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA. ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS SUCH AS AT KEKN. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 02/10/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ037>040-046-047. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...FB/KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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